Final Win Prob. pScore
307%80
69
493%99
85
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo Heat
85.28185.5
DET logo Pistons
106.38076.0

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

PistonsHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

PistonsHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIADET
Q4 - 0:00.0DET69
0%
85
100%
Q4 - 0:22.0DETJohnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)69
0%
85
100%
Q4 - 0:23.0MIAMISS Lasme Layup69
0%
85
100%
Q4 - 0:39.0DETHerrmann Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Stuckey 3 AST)69
0.1%
85
99.9%
Q4 - 0:59.0DETHayes REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)69
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 1:00MIAMISS Anthony 20' Jump Shot69
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 1:23MIAPowell REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)69
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 1:24DETMISS Johnson Layup69
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 1:40MIASUB: Ahearn FOR Davis69
83
Q4 - 1:40DETPISTONS Rebound69
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 1:40MIAMISS Powell 14' Jump Shot69
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 1:54DETSUB: Hayes FOR Prince69
83
Q4 - 1:54DETSUB: Stuckey FOR Billups69
83
Q4 - 1:54DETSUB: Herrmann FOR Wallace69
83
Q4 - 1:54DETPrince P.FOUL (P1.T4)69
83
Q4 - 1:54MIAQuinn REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)69
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 1:55MIAMISS Quinn Layup69
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 2:10DETWallace 26' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Billups 11 AST)69
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 2:27MIADavis Traveling Turnover (P2.T14)69
0.2%
80
99.8%
Q4 - 2:39DETAfflalo Free Throw 1 of 1 (15 PTS)69
0.3%
80
99.7%
Q4 - 2:39MIASUB: Powell FOR Ahearn69
79
Q4 - 2:39DETPISTONS Timeout: Regular (Full 4 Short 0)69
79
Q4 - 2:39MIAQuinn S.FOUL (P5.PN)69
79
Q4 - 2:39DETAfflalo Dunk (14 PTS)69
79
Q4 - 2:42MIAAfflalo STEAL (2 STL)69
0.7%
77
99.3%
Q4 - 2:53MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)69
1.6%
77
98.4%
Q4 - 2:54DETMISS Johnson 11' Jump Shot69
1.4%
77
98.6%
Q4 - 3:14MIALasme Traveling Turnover (P2.T12)69
0.9%
77
99.1%
Q4 - 3:32DETAfflalo Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)69
2.5%
77
97.5%
Q4 - 3:32DETAfflalo Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)69
2.7%
76
97.3%
Q4 - 3:32MIADavis S.FOUL (P2.T4)69
75
Q4 - 3:36MIAWallace STEAL (2 STL)69
3.4%
75
96.6%
Q4 - 4:04DETBillups 22' Jump Shot (13 PTS)69
4.9%
75
95.1%
Q4 - 4:18DETAfflalo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)69
6.7%
73
93.3%
Q4 - 4:19MIAMISS Quinn 27' 3PT Jump Shot69
7.6%
73
92.4%
Q4 - 4:26MIAAhearn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)69
9.9%
73
90.1%
Q4 - 4:27DETMISS Prince 17' Jump Shot69
8.8%
73
91.2%
Q4 - 4:56MIAQuinn 21' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Ahearn 2 AST)69
6.6%
73
93.4%
Q4 - 5:11MIALasme REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)67
6.0%
73
94.0%
Q4 - 5:12DETMISS Wallace Layup67
5.4%
73
94.6%
Q4 - 5:14DETWallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)67
4.3%
73
95.7%
Q4 - 5:15DETMISS Afflalo 12' Running Jump Shot67
5.4%
73
94.6%
Q4 - 5:28DETSUB: Prince FOR Hayes67
73
Q4 - 5:28DETSUB: Afflalo FOR Hunter67
73
Q4 - 5:28MIALasme P.FOUL (P3.T3)67
73
Q4 - 5:42DETSUB: Billups FOR Stuckey67
73
Q4 - 5:4267
73
Q4 - 5:42DETPISTONS Rebound67
4.2%
73
95.8%
Q4 - 5:42MIAMISS Davis 27' 3PT Jump Shot67
4.7%
73
95.3%
Q4 - 5:49MIADavis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)67
5.9%
73
94.1%
Q4 - 5:50DETMISS Stuckey 10' Running Jump Shot67
5.3%
73
94.7%
Q4 - 6:12MIAWallace STEAL (1 STL)67
4.8%
73
95.2%
Q4 - 6:30MIADavis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)67
6.5%
73
93.5%
Q4 - 6:32DETMISS Hayes 3PT Jump Shot67
5.9%
73
94.1%
Q4 - 6:34DETHayes REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)67
4.8%
73
95.2%
Q4 - 6:37DETMISS Johnson Layup67
5.9%
73
94.1%
Q4 - 6:59MIAAhearn Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)67
4.8%
73
95.2%
Q4 - 6:59MIAAhearn Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)66
4.5%
73
95.5%
Q4 - 6:59DETStuckey S.FOUL (P2.T3)65
73
Q4 - 7:17MIASUB: Anthony FOR Al. Johnson65
73
Q4 - 7:17MIAHeat Timeout: Regular (Reg.4 Short 2)65
73
Q4 - 7:30DETWallace 27' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Stuckey 2 AST)65
3.9%
73
96.1%
Q4 - 7:55DETJohnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)65
6.5%
70
93.5%
Q4 - 7:56MIAMISS Quinn 19' Jump Shot65
7.1%
70
92.9%
Q4 - 8:04MIAAhearn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)65
8.8%
70
91.2%
Q4 - 8:04DETMISS Stuckey Layup65
8.2%
70
91.8%
Q4 - 8:27MIALasme 19' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Quinn 7 AST)65
6.9%
70
93.1%
Q4 - 8:50DETJohnson Layup (2 PTS) (Wallace 1 AST)63
5.4%
70
94.6%
Q4 - 9:02MIAAl. Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)63
7.4%
68
92.6%
Q4 - 9:02DETSUB: Wallace FOR Maxiell62
68
Q4 - 9:02MIAAl. Johnson Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)62
7.0%
68
93.0%
Q4 - 9:02DETHunter S.FOUL (P3.T2)61
68
Q4 - 9:21DETHayes Traveling Turnover (P1.T11)61
5.9%
68
94.1%
Q4 - 9:41MIAQuinn Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)61
4.7%
68
95.3%
Q4 - 9:41MIAQuinn Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)60
4.5%
68
95.5%
Q4 - 9:41DETSUB: Hunter FOR Billups59
68
Q4 - 9:41DETStuckey S.FOUL (P1.T1)59
68
Q4 - 9:47DETStuckey Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T10)59
3.7%
68
96.3%
Q4 - 10:02MIALasme Layup (6 PTS) (Quinn 6 AST)59
3.2%
68
96.8%
Q4 - 10:21MIAPISTONS Violation: Delay of game Violation57
68
Q4 - 10:21MIASUB: Quinn FOR Powell57
68
Q4 - 10:21DETBillups Foul Turnover (P5.T9)57
2.6%
68
97.4%
Q4 - 10:21DETBillups OFF.Foul (P4)57
68
Q4 - 10:25MIAAl. Johnson P.FOUL (P3.T2)57
68
Q4 - 10:39MIAAl. Johnson 16' Jump Shot (3 PTS)57
2.0%
68
98.0%
Q4 - 11:00DETMaxiell Layup (15 PTS) (Billups 10 AST)55
1.6%
68
98.4%
Q4 - 11:14MIAAhearn P.FOUL (P3.T1)55
66
Q4 - 11:35DETJohnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)55
2.3%
66
97.7%
Q4 - 11:36MIAMISS Davis Layup55
2.4%
66
97.6%
Q4 - 12:0055
66
Q3 - 0:00.0MIA55
2.8%
66
97.2%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAHeat Rebound55
2.8%
66
97.2%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAMISS Davis 18' Jump Shot55
2.4%
66
97.6%
Q3 - 0:06.0MIAAhearn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)55
3.0%
66
97.0%
Q3 - 0:07.0DETMISS Prince 24' 3PT Jump Shot55
2.9%
66
97.1%
Q3 - 0:29.0DETMcDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)55
2.5%
66
97.5%
Q3 - 0:30.0MIAMISS Powell 25' 3PT Jump Shot55
2.7%
66
97.3%
Q3 - 0:53.0DETMcDyess Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)55
3.0%
66
97.0%
Q3 - 0:53.0DETMcDyess Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)55
3.2%
65
96.8%
Q3 - 0:53.0MIAAl. Johnson P.FOUL (P2.PN)55
64
Q3 - 1:06DETMaxiell REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)55
3.9%
64
96.1%
Q3 - 1:08MIAMISS Ahearn 27' 3PT Jump Shot55
4.1%
64
95.9%
Q3 - 1:27DETMaxiell Layup (13 PTS) (Stuckey 1 AST)55
4.6%
64
95.4%
Q3 - 1:39DETMaxiell REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)55
5.6%
62
94.4%
Q3 - 1:40MIAMISS Lasme Layup55
5.9%
62
94.1%
Q3 - 1:45MIAPowell REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)55
6.7%
62
93.3%
Q3 - 1:46DETMISS Prince 17' Jump Shot55
6.3%
62
93.7%
Q3 - 1:52DETPrince REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)55
5.6%
62
94.4%
Q3 - 1:53DETMISS Afflalo Layup55
6.3%
62
93.7%
Q3 - 2:07DETAfflalo Free Throw Technical (10 PTS)55
5.7%
62
94.3%
Q3 - 2:07MIAHeat T.Foul (Def. 3 Sec Al. Johnson )55
61
Q3 - 2:18MIAAl. Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)55
6.8%
61
93.2%
Q3 - 2:18MIAHeat Rebound54
61
Q3 - 2:18MIAMISS Al. Johnson Free Throw 1 of 254
6.5%
61
93.5%
Q3 - 2:18DETMcDyess S.FOUL (P1.T3)54
61
Q3 - 2:32DETMaxiell Free Throw 1 of 1 (11 PTS)54
6.8%
61
93.2%
Q3 - 2:32DETPISTONS Timeout: Regular (Full 3 Short 0)54
60
Q3 - 2:32MIAPowell S.FOUL (P2.PN)54
60
Q3 - 2:32DETMaxiell Layup (10 PTS)54
60
Q3 - 2:32DETMaxiell REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)54
9.6%
58
90.4%
Q3 - 2:34DETMISS Prince Layup54
10.7%
58
89.3%
Q3 - 2:54DETMaxiell REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)54
9.6%
58
90.4%
Q3 - 2:55MIAMISS Al. Johnson Layup54
10.1%
58
89.9%
Q3 - 3:18MIAPowell REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)54
10.9%
58
89.1%
Q3 - 3:19DETMISS McDyess Free Throw 2 of 254
10.6%
58
89.4%
Q3 - 3:19DETMcDyess Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)54
9.7%
58
90.3%
Q3 - 3:19MIAAl. Johnson S.FOUL (P1.PN)54
57
Q3 - 3:39MIADavis Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)54
10.8%
57
89.2%
Q3 - 3:39MIADavis Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)53
10.5%
57
89.5%
Q3 - 3:39DETAfflalo S.FOUL (P2.T2)52
57
Q3 - 3:57DETMaxiell Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)52
9.3%
57
90.7%
Q3 - 3:57MIASUB: Al. Johnson FOR Anthony52
56
Q3 - 3:57DETPISTONS Rebound52
56
Q3 - 3:57DETMISS Maxiell Free Throw 1 of 252
9.8%
56
90.2%
Q3 - 3:57MIAAnthony S.FOUL (P4.PN)52
56
Q3 - 4:10DETPISTONS Rebound52
9.1%
56
90.9%
Q3 - 4:11DETMISS Maxiell Free Throw 2 of 252
10.7%
56
89.3%
Q3 - 4:11DETSUB: Stuckey FOR Billups52
56
Q3 - 4:11DETMaxiell Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)52
9.9%
56
90.1%
Q3 - 4:11MIAAhearn S.FOUL (P2.T4)52
55
Q3 - 4:28DETMaxiell REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)52
10.7%
55
89.3%
Q3 - 4:29DETMISS McDyess Free Throw 2 of 252
12.5%
55
87.5%
Q3 - 4:29DETPISTONS Rebound52
55
Q3 - 4:29DETMISS McDyess Free Throw 1 of 252
11.5%
55
88.5%
Q3 - 4:29MIALasme S.FOUL (P2.T3)52
55
Q3 - 4:46MIALasme Layup (4 PTS)52
10.7%
55
89.3%
Q3 - 4:48MIALasme REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)50
9.3%
55
90.7%
Q3 - 4:49MIAMaxiell BLOCK (1 BLK)50
8.2%
55
91.8%
Q3 - 5:06MIAHeat Rebound50
9.2%
55
90.8%
Q3 - 5:07DETMISS Maxiell 9' Hook Shot50
8.7%
55
91.3%
Q3 - 5:27MIADavis Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)50
7.7%
55
92.3%
Q3 - 5:27MIASUB: Lasme FOR Barron49
55
Q3 - 5:27MIAHeat Rebound49
55
Q3 - 5:27MIAMISS Davis Free Throw 1 of 249
7.5%
55
92.5%
Q3 - 5:27MIASUB: Anthony FOR Blount49
55
Q3 - 5:27DETBillups S.FOUL (P3.T1)49
55
Q3 - 5:50DETMaxiell 12' Turnaround Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Prince 1 AST)49
7.9%
55
92.1%
Q3 - 6:09DETAfflalo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)49
8.9%
53
91.1%
Q3 - 6:10MIAMISS Powell 3PT Jump Shot49
9.3%
53
90.7%
Q3 - 6:23DETSUB: Maxiell FOR Wallace49
53
Q3 - 6:23MIAHeat Timeout: Regular (Reg.3 Short 2)49
53
Q3 - 6:29DETPrince 19' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (McDyess 2 AST)49
10.4%
53
89.6%
Q3 - 6:46DETPrince REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)49
11.9%
51
88.1%
Q3 - 6:48MIAMISS Ahearn 20' Jump Shot49
12.5%
51
87.5%
Q3 - 7:11DETMcDyess Dunk (8 PTS) (Billups 9 AST)49
13.4%
51
86.6%
Q3 - 7:18DETAfflalo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)49
15.2%
49
84.8%
Q3 - 7:19MIAMISS Barron 21' Jump Shot49
15.9%
49
84.1%
Q3 - 7:38MIAHeat Rebound49
17.5%
49
82.5%
Q3 - 7:39DETMISS McDyess Free Throw 2 of 249
17.1%
49
82.9%
Q3 - 7:39MIASUB: Ahearn FOR Quinn49
49
Q3 - 7:39DETPISTONS Rebound49
49
Q3 - 7:39DETMISS McDyess Free Throw 1 of 249
16.0%
49
84.0%
Q3 - 7:39MIAQuinn S.FOUL (P4.T2)49
49
Q3 - 7:43DETPrince REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)49
15.3%
49
84.7%
Q3 - 7:44DETMISS Afflalo 21' Jump Shot49
16.8%
49
83.2%
Q3 - 8:12MIABarron 21' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Powell 3 AST)49
14.9%
49
85.1%
Q3 - 8:27DETBillups Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T8)47
13.3%
49
86.7%
Q3 - 8:43DETBillups REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)47
11.5%
49
88.5%
Q3 - 8:44DETMISS Billups 24' 3PT Jump Shot47
12.7%
49
87.3%
Q3 - 8:50DETPrince REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)47
11.5%
49
88.5%
Q3 - 8:52MIAMISS Powell 11' Running Jump Shot47
12.0%
49
88.0%
Q3 - 9:08DETBillups Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)47
12.9%
49
87.1%
Q3 - 9:08DETBillups Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)47
13.1%
48
86.9%
Q3 - 9:08MIAQuinn S.FOUL (P3.T1)47
47
Q3 - 9:31MIABarron 20' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Powell 2 AST)47
14.7%
47
85.3%
Q3 - 9:52MIADavis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)45
13.0%
47
87.0%
Q3 - 9:52DETMISS Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot45
12.5%
47
87.5%
Q3 - 10:16MIADavis Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9)45
11.1%
47
88.9%
Q3 - 10:23MIAHeat Timeout: Short (Reg.2 Short 2)45
47
Q3 - 10:32DETAfflalo Tip Shot (9 PTS)45
12.6%
47
87.4%
Q3 - 10:33DETAfflalo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)45
14.3%
45
85.7%
Q3 - 10:34DETMISS McDyess Layup45
15.5%
45
84.5%
Q3 - 10:44MIAPrince STEAL (1 STL)45
14.3%
45
85.7%
Q3 - 11:08MIABlount REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)45
15.6%
45
84.4%
Q3 - 11:09DETMISS Prince 14' Jump Shot45
15.0%
45
85.0%
Q3 - 11:21DETPrince REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)45
13.8%
45
86.2%
Q3 - 11:22MIAMISS Barron 20' Jump Shot45
14.3%
45
85.7%
Q3 - 11:42DETAfflalo Layup (7 PTS) (McDyess 1 AST)45
15.6%
45
84.4%
Q3 - 12:0045
43
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA45
17.4%
43
82.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIAHeat Rebound45
19.7%
43
80.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIAMISS Davis 61' 3PT Jump Shot45
18.1%
43
81.9%
Q2 - 0:02.0DETMcDyess Layup (6 PTS) (Billups 8 AST)45
18.8%
43
81.2%
Q2 - 0:23.0MIAAhearn Driving Layup (13 PTS)45
21.5%
41
78.5%
Q2 - 0:39.0MIABlount REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)43
18.9%
41
81.1%
Q2 - 0:40.0DETMISS Billups Layup43
18.4%
41
81.6%
Q2 - 0:53.0DETWallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)43
17.3%
41
82.7%
Q2 - 0:54.0MIAMISS Ahearn 21' Jump Shot43
17.8%
41
82.2%
Q2 - 0:58.0MIAHeat Rebound43
18.9%
41
81.1%
Q2 - 0:58.0MIAMcDyess BLOCK (2 BLK)43
17.8%
41
82.2%
Q2 - 1:04MIAHeat Timeout: Short (Reg.2 Short 1)43
41
Q2 - 1:04DETBillups Violation:Kicked Ball43
41
Q2 - 1:12MIAPowell REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)43
18.3%
41
81.7%
Q2 - 1:14DETMISS Wallace 9' Hook Shot43
17.9%
41
82.1%
Q2 - 1:36MIABarron Traveling Turnover (P2.T7)43
17.0%
41
83.0%
Q2 - 1:53DETMcDyess Layup (4 PTS) (Billups 7 AST)43
18.4%
41
81.6%
Q2 - 1:58DETBillups Free Throw Technical (9 PTS)43
21.0%
39
79.0%
Q2 - 1:58MIAHeat T.Foul (Def. 3 Sec Davis )43
38
Q2 - 2:10DETAfflalo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)43
21.8%
38
78.2%
Q2 - 2:11MIAMISS Blount 21' Jump Shot43
22.5%
38
77.5%
Q2 - 2:27DETAfflalo Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)43
24.2%
38
75.8%
Q2 - 2:27DETPISTONS Rebound43
37
Q2 - 2:27DETMISS Afflalo Free Throw 1 of 243
24.7%
37
75.3%
Q2 - 2:27MIADavis P.FOUL (P1.PN)43
37
Q2 - 2:27DETAfflalo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)43
24.1%
37
75.9%
Q2 - 2:28MIAMISS Davis 20' Jump Shot43
24.9%
37
75.1%
Q2 - 2:40MIASUB: Powell FOR Quinn43
37
Q2 - 2:40MIAHeat Timeout: Regular (Reg.2 Short 0)43
37
Q2 - 2:40MIAHeat Rebound43
26.6%
37
73.4%
Q2 - 2:40MIAMcDyess BLOCK (1 BLK)43
24.9%
37
75.1%
Q2 - 2:55DETPrince 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Billups 6 AST)43
26.7%
37
73.3%
Q2 - 3:07MIADavis Layup (4 PTS) (Ahearn 1 AST)43
27.8%
35
72.2%
Q2 - 3:12DETBillups Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T7)41
25.8%
35
74.2%
Q2 - 3:33DETMcDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)41
23.1%
35
76.9%
Q2 - 3:34MIAMISS Ahearn Free Throw 2 of 241
23.5%
35
76.5%
Q2 - 3:34MIAAhearn Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)41
25.0%
35
75.0%
Q2 - 3:34DETBillups P.FOUL (P2.PN)40
35
Q2 - 3:46DETBillups 17' Jump Shot (8 PTS)40
23.5%
35
76.5%
Q2 - 3:52DETPISTONS Rebound40
25.4%
33
74.6%
Q2 - 3:52DETMISS Billups Layup40
27.4%
33
72.6%
Q2 - 3:57DETWallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)40
25.4%
33
74.6%
Q2 - 3:59MIAMISS Quinn Layup40
26.3%
33
73.7%
Q2 - 4:10MIABlount REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)40
26.9%
33
73.1%
Q2 - 4:12DETMISS Afflalo 12' Running Jump Shot40
26.2%
33
73.8%
Q2 - 4:38MIAAhearn Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)40
24.5%
33
75.5%
Q2 - 4:38MIAAhearn Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)39
24.1%
33
75.9%
Q2 - 4:38MIASUB: Barron FOR Lasme38
33
Q2 - 4:38DETBillups P.FOUL (P1.PN)38
33
Q2 - 4:45MIABlount REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)38
22.5%
33
77.5%
Q2 - 4:46DETMISS Prince 16' Jump Shot38
21.8%
33
78.2%
Q2 - 4:52DETWallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)38
20.3%
33
79.7%
Q2 - 4:53MIAMISS Ahearn 26' 3PT Jump Shot38
20.9%
33
79.1%
Q2 - 4:59MIALasme REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)38
22.5%
33
77.5%
Q2 - 5:00MIAMISS Blount 20' Jump Shot38
20.9%
33
79.1%
Q2 - 5:14DETWallace 16' Jump Bank Shot (7 PTS)38
21.7%
33
78.3%
Q2 - 5:32MIABlount Traveling Turnover (P1.T6)38
23.8%
31
76.2%
Q2 - 5:46DETMcDyess Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)38
26.0%
31
74.0%
Q2 - 5:46DETMcDyess Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)38
26.7%
30
73.3%
Q2 - 5:46MIALasme S.FOUL (P1.PN)38
29
Q2 - 6:00DETSUB: Afflalo FOR Hunter38
29
Q2 - 6:00DETPISTONS Timeout: Regular (Full 2 Short 0)38
29
Q2 - 6:00MIAAhearn 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Quinn 5 AST)38
28.5%
29
71.5%
Q2 - 6:08MIAQuinn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)35
23.5%
29
76.5%
Q2 - 6:09DETMISS McDyess 18' Jump Shot35
22.8%
29
77.2%
Q2 - 6:22DETPrince REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)35
21.2%
29
78.8%
Q2 - 6:23MIAMISS Quinn 25' 3PT Jump Shot35
21.9%
29
78.1%
Q2 - 6:38MIAQuinn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)35
23.5%
29
76.5%
Q2 - 6:39DETMISS Hunter 26' 3PT Jump Shot35
22.8%
29
77.2%
Q2 - 6:58MIAQuinn Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)35
21.2%
29
78.8%
Q2 - 6:58MIAQuinn Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)34
20.9%
29
79.1%
Q2 - 6:58DETHunter P.FOUL (P2.PN)33
29
Q2 - 7:07DETWallace Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)33
18.7%
29
81.3%
Q2 - 7:07DETSUB: Billups FOR Stuckey33
28
Q2 - 7:07DETSUB: Prince FOR Hayes33
28
Q2 - 7:07MIAQuinn S.FOUL (P2.T4)33
28
Q2 - 7:07DETWallace Layup (4 PTS) (Hayes 2 AST)33
28
Q2 - 7:19MIALasme 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Davis 2 AST)33
22.4%
26
77.6%
Q2 - 7:24MIALasme REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)31
20.6%
26
79.4%
Q2 - 7:25MIAMISS Ahearn 24' 3PT Jump Shot31
19.3%
26
80.7%
Q2 - 7:47MIADavis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)31
20.6%
26
79.4%
Q2 - 7:48DETMISS Hunter 13' Jump Shot31
20.0%
26
80.0%
Q2 - 8:03MIAHayes STEAL (1 STL)31
18.2%
26
81.8%
Q2 - 8:19MIABlount REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)31
19.9%
26
80.1%
Q2 - 8:20DETMISS Stuckey 21' Jump Shot31
19.4%
26
80.6%
Q2 - 8:37MIASUB: Davis FOR Powell31
26
Q2 - 8:38MIASUB: Blount FOR Anthony31
26
Q2 - 8:38DETSUB: McDyess FOR Maxiell31
26
Q2 - 8:3831
26
Q2 - 8:38MIAAnthony Foul Turnover (P1.T4)31
18.3%
26
81.7%
Q2 - 8:38MIAAnthony OFF.Foul (P3)31
26
Q2 - 8:47DETMaxiell Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)31
19.9%
26
80.1%
Q2 - 8:50DETMaxiell REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)31
18.3%
26
81.7%
Q2 - 8:51MIAMISS Quinn Layup31
18.8%
26
81.2%
Q2 - 9:02MIAAnthony Violation:Defensive Goaltending31
26
Q2 - 9:02DETHunter Driving Layup (2 PTS)31
19.4%
26
80.6%
Q2 - 9:11MIAAnthony P.FOUL (P2.T3)31
24
Q2 - 9:19MIAPowell P.FOUL (P1.T2)31
24
Q2 - 9:28MIAAhearn Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)31
21.1%
24
78.9%
Q2 - 9:28MIAAhearn Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)30
20.8%
24
79.2%
Q2 - 9:28DETSUB: Wallace FOR Johnson29
24
Q2 - 9:28DETJohnson S.FOUL (P2.T4)29
24
Q2 - 9:34MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)29
19.4%
24
80.6%
Q2 - 9:35MIAMISS Ahearn 24' 3PT Jump Shot29
18.3%
24
81.7%
Q2 - 9:49DETMaxiell 13' Hook Shot (4 PTS) (Hayes 1 AST)29
19.4%
24
80.6%
Q2 - 10:11MIAAhearn Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)29
20.7%
22
79.3%
Q2 - 10:11MIASUB: Lasme FOR Barron28
22
Q2 - 10:11DETHayes S.FOUL (P1.T3)28
22
Q2 - 10:11MIAAhearn Layup (2 PTS) (Powell 1 AST)28
22
Q2 - 10:15DETHunter Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)26
17.6%
22
82.4%
Q2 - 10:21MIAJohnson STEAL (1 STL)26
16.1%
22
83.9%
Q2 - 10:31DETHunter P.FOUL (P1.T2)26
22
Q2 - 10:44DETMaxiell Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)26
17.6%
22
82.4%
Q2 - 10:44MIASUB: Quinn FOR Davis26
21
Q2 - 10:44DETMaxiell Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)26
18.1%
21
81.9%
Q2 - 10:44MIAAnthony S.FOUL (P1.T1)26
20
Q2 - 10:54DETMaxiell REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)26
19.1%
20
80.9%
Q2 - 10:56MIAMISS Powell 26' 3PT Jump Shot26
19.6%
20
80.4%
Q2 - 11:18DETStuckey 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS)26
20.6%
20
79.4%
Q2 - 11:33MIAAnthony Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)26
22.3%
18
77.7%
Q2 - 11:33DETSUB: Hunter FOR Billups25
18
Q2 - 11:33DETJohnson S.FOUL (P1.T1)25
18
Q2 - 11:33MIAAnthony Layup (2 PTS)25
18
Q2 - 11:34MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)23
19.0%
18
81.0%
Q2 - 11:35MIAMISS Powell Layup23
17.9%
18
82.1%
Q2 - 11:44DETJohnson 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T4)23
19.0%
18
81.0%
Q2 - 12:0023
18
Q1 - 0:00.0MIA23
17.5%
18
82.5%
Q1 - 0:01.0MIABarron REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)23
18.0%
18
82.0%
Q1 - 0:02.0DETMISS Stuckey Layup23
17.7%
18
82.3%
Q1 - 0:07.0MIAAhearn P.FOUL (P1.T2)23
18
Q1 - 0:19.0DETStuckey REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
17.0%
18
83.0%
Q1 - 0:21.0MIAMISS Ahearn 14' Running Jump Shot23
17.3%
18
82.7%
Q1 - 0:35.0MIAAhearn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
18.1%
18
81.9%
Q1 - 0:36.0DETMISS Prince 24' 3PT Jump Shot23
17.8%
18
82.2%
Q1 - 0:42.0DETBillups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)23
17.0%
18
83.0%
Q1 - 0:43.0MIAJohnson BLOCK (2 BLK)23
17.3%
18
82.7%
Q1 - 1:09DETStuckey 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Billups 5 AST)23
17.4%
18
82.6%
Q1 - 1:20MIASUB: Ahearn FOR Quinn23
16
Q1 - 1:35MIAPowell 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Quinn 4 AST)23
19.3%
16
80.7%
Q1 - 1:49MIAHeat Rebound21
17.5%
16
82.5%
Q1 - 1:50MIAJohnson BLOCK (1 BLK)21
16.8%
16
83.2%
Q1 - 2:06DETBillups Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T3)21
17.3%
16
82.7%
Q1 - 2:19MIASUB: Anthony FOR Blount21
16
Q1 - 2:19DETSUB: Stuckey FOR Afflalo21
16
Q1 - 2:19DETSUB: Johnson FOR McDyess21
16
Q1 - 2:19MIAHeat Timeout: Regular (Reg.1 Short 0)21
16
Q1 - 2:19DETPISTONS Rebound21
16.2%
16
83.8%
Q1 - 2:19MIAMISS Blount 24' 3PT Jump Shot21
16.5%
16
83.5%
Q1 - 2:37MIAQuinn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)21
17.3%
16
82.7%
Q1 - 2:39DETMISS Prince 15' Fadeaway Jumper21
17.0%
16
83.0%
Q1 - 3:02MIAHeat Turnover: Shot Clock (T#2)21
15.7%
16
84.3%
Q1 - 3:02MIABlount REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)21
16.9%
16
83.1%
Q1 - 3:04MIAAfflalo BLOCK (1 BLK)21
16.1%
16
83.9%
Q1 - 3:16DETAfflalo P.FOUL (P1.T1)21
16
Q1 - 3:29DETSUB: Maxiell FOR Wallace21
16
Q1 - 3:29MIAHeat Rebound21
17.0%
16
83.0%
Q1 - 3:29DETMISS Wallace 27' 3PT Jump Shot21
16.6%
16
83.4%
Q1 - 3:37DETPrince REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)21
15.7%
16
84.3%
Q1 - 3:39DETMISS Prince 8' Running Hook Shot21
16.6%
16
83.4%
Q1 - 3:57DETPrince REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)21
15.8%
16
84.2%
Q1 - 3:58MIAMISS Quinn 12' Jump Shot21
16.1%
16
83.9%
Q1 - 4:13MIADavis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)21
15.7%
16
84.3%
Q1 - 4:14DETMISS Wallace 26' 3PT Jump Shot21
15.3%
16
84.7%
Q1 - 4:32MIABarron Dunk (6 PTS) (Quinn 3 AST)21
14.5%
16
85.5%
Q1 - 4:45DETBillups 21' Jump Shot (6 PTS)19
13.5%
16
86.5%
Q1 - 5:06MIABlount 17' Fadeaway Jumper (8 PTS)19
14.3%
14
85.7%
Q1 - 5:31DETBillups 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS)17
13.4%
14
86.6%
Q1 - 5:39DETPISTONS Timeout: Regular (Full 1 Short 0)17
12
Q1 - 5:45MIABlount 18' Fadeaway Jumper (6 PTS) (Barron 2 AST)17
14.1%
12
85.9%
Q1 - 5:59MIABarron REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)15
13.2%
12
86.8%
Q1 - 6:00DETMISS McDyess 18' Jump Shot15
12.9%
12
87.1%
Q1 - 6:14MIABarron 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Davis 1 AST)15
11.8%
12
88.2%
Q1 - 6:31DETBillups Driving Layup (2 PTS)13
11.0%
12
89.0%
Q1 - 6:35MIAQuinn P.FOUL (P1.T1)13
10
Q1 - 6:59MIABarron Dunk (2 PTS) (Blount 1 AST)13
11.6%
10
88.4%
Q1 - 7:14DETPrince Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)11
10.6%
10
89.4%
Q1 - 7:34MIADavis 13' Jump Bank Shot (2 PTS)11
9.8%
10
90.2%
Q1 - 7:44DETBillups Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)9
9.2%
10
90.8%
Q1 - 7:49MIAAfflalo STEAL (1 STL)9
8.6%
10
91.4%
Q1 - 7:52MIABarron REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)9
9.2%
10
90.8%
Q1 - 7:54MIAMISS Davis 25' 3PT Jump Shot9
8.7%
10
91.3%
Q1 - 8:15MIAQuinn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)9
8.9%
10
91.1%
Q1 - 8:16DETMISS McDyess 22' Jump Shot9
8.7%
10
91.3%
Q1 - 8:34MIABlount 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Quinn 2 AST)9
8.3%
10
91.7%
Q1 - 8:49DETAfflalo Driving Reverse Layup (4 PTS) (Billups 4 AST)7
7.9%
10
92.1%
Q1 - 9:05MIABlount 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Quinn 1 AST)7
8.2%
8
91.8%
Q1 - 9:31DETAfflalo 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Billups 3 AST)5
7.7%
8
92.3%
Q1 - 9:47DETAfflalo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)5
8.0%
6
92.0%
Q1 - 9:48MIAMISS Barron 20' Jump Shot5
8.1%
6
91.9%
Q1 - 10:10DETWallace Layup (2 PTS) (Billups 2 AST)5
8.1%
6
91.9%
Q1 - 10:17DETBillups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)5
8.4%
4
91.6%
Q1 - 10:18MIAMISS Blount 18' Jump Shot5
8.4%
4
91.6%
Q1 - 10:39DETPrince 14' Fadeaway Jumper (4 PTS)5
8.4%
4
91.6%
Q1 - 11:06MIAQuinn 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS)5
8.1%
2
91.9%
Q1 - 11:25DETPrince Layup (2 PTS) (Billups 1 AST)3
7.7%
2
92.3%
Q1 - 11:39MIAQuinn 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Barron 1 AST)3
7.5%
0
92.5%
Q1 - 12:00DETJump Ball Wallace vs. Blount: Tip to Quinn0
7.1%
0
92.9%
Q1 - 12:000
0
ClockTeamEventMIADET
Score / WinProb

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.85 42.6%
DET
1.06 53.1%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
8
19
42%
DET
16
26
62%
Midrange
MIA
14
33
42%
DET
14
32
44%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
2
3.0
15
13%
20%
DET
2
3.0
10
20%
30%
Free Throws
MIA
19
22
86%
DET
19
27
70%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
B. Ahearn1554%7.5 / 14
C. Quinn1146%5.5 / 12
E. Barron1045%5.0 / 11
M. Blount850%4.0 / 8
S. Lasme857%4.0 / 7
R. Davis732%3.5 / 11
A. Johnson563%2.5 / 4
J. Anthony375%1.5 / 2
K. Powell213%1.0 / 8
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
DET logo Pistons
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
A. Afflalo1568%7.5 / 11
J. Maxiell1583%7.5 / 9
C. Billups1365%6.5 / 10
R. Wallace1372%6.5 / 9
A. McDyess1146%5.5 / 12
T. Prince831%4.0 / 13
R. Stuckey433%2.0 / 6
A. Johnson225%1.0 / 4
L. Hunter233%1.0 / 3
W. Herrmann2100%1.0 / 1
J. Hayes0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
68
+13
-13
81
DET
69
+11
-11
80
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.85 42.6%
DET
1.06 53.1%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
100.2
110.3
MIA 85.2
DET 106.3 +21.1
Pace
90.5
88.2
MIA 85.5 +9.4
DET 76.0
Avg. Poss. Time
16.3
16.9
MIA 16.9 −2.1
DET 18.9
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
48.2%
49.5%
MIA 37.3%
DET 48.5% +11.2%
TO %
15.4%
12.6%
MIA 15.4%
DET 12.1% −3.3%
ORB %
22.2%
29.4%
MIA 22.2%
DET 25.7% +3.5%
FTrt
30.0
30.0
MIA 32.8
DET 39.7 +6.9
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
58.5%
61.1%
MIA 70.8% +8.3%
DET 62.5%
STL %
7.9%
8.1%
MIA 8.6%
DET 8.8% +0.2%
BLK %
7.1%
9.4%
MIA 1.7%
DET 11.5% +9.8%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
50.6%
52.4%
MIA 42.6%
DET 53.1% +10.5%
Rim FG%
59.2%
60.1%
MIA 42.1%
DET 61.5% +19.4%
Mid FG%
38.8%
41.7%
MIA 42.4%
DET 43.8% +1.4%
3P %
35.8%
36.6%
MIA 13.3%
DET 20.0% +6.7%
FT %
72.7%
76.7%
MIA 86.4% +16.0%
DET 70.4%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
30.2%
27.8%
MIA 28.4%
DET 38.2% +9.9%
Mid Att. %
48.1%
51.9%
MIA 49.3%
DET 47.1% −2.2%
3P Att. %
21.7%
20.3%
MIA 22.4% +7.7%
DET 14.7%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsMIADET
Possessions8180
Possession Minutes22.825.3
Points6985
Rebounds3437
Assists1720
Steals77
Blocks16
Turnovers (Team)13 (1)11 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)8 (5)9 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)26 (3)28 (3)
Field Goals24-6732-68
At-the-Rim FG8-1916-26
Midrange FG14-3314-32
2-Point FG22-5230-58
3-Point FG2-152-10
Free Throws19-2219-27
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
G · 6'7" 195 · 29
44.2
7
32%
5
2
0
0
2
2
0
5
3-4
75%
2-6
33%
0-3
0%
F · 6'7" 215 · 27
34.4
2
13%
4
3
3
0
0
2
0
4
0-0
-
1-5
20%
0-3
0%
G · 6'2" 175 · 24
33.5
11
46%
5
7
2
0
2
5
1
4
4-4
100%
2-7
29%
1-3
33%
F · 7'0" 250 · 27
25.0
10
45%
3
2
0
0
2
0
1
2
0-0
-
5-11
45%
0-0
-
C · 7'0" 250 · 32
24.9
8
50%
6
1
0
0
1
0
1
5
0-0
-
4-7
57%
0-1
0%
G · 6'2" 190 · 24
32.0
15
54%
4
2
2
0
2
3
0
4
8-9
89%
2-5
40%
1-5
20%
F · 6'8" 215 · 25
23.0
8
57%
4
0
0
1
2
3
3
1
0-0
-
4-7
57%
0-0
-
C · 6'9" 245 · 26
14.5
3
75%
3
0
0
0
2
4
2
1
1-1
100%
1-2
50%
0-0
-
F · 6'9" 240 · 25
8.7
5
63%
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3-4
75%
1-2
50%
0-0
-
G · 6'5" 210 · 21
G · 6'1" 180 · 32
G-F · 6'7" 228 · 30
#40 · F · 6'8" 235 · 28
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#1 · F-G · 6'9" 205 · 22
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#5 · G · 6'2" 205 · 26
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#3 · G · 6'4" 220 · 26
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#33 · C · 6'10" 261 · 38
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
69
43%
34
17
7
1
13
0
8
26
19-22
86%
22-52
42%
2-15
13%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.