Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, December 7, 2009

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	6	Spurs	51%	100	101
	10	Jazz	49%	99	104

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
SAS	112.2	90	86.9
UTA	116.9	89	92.3

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+11

-15

UTA

+10

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.17 58.7%

UTA

1.20 59.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	UTA
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS		101 0%	104 100%
Q4 - 0:01.0	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	101 0.5%	102 99.5%
Q4 - 0:01.0	SAS	MISS Bonner 13' Running Jump Shot	101 1.2%	102 98.8%
Q4 - 0:09.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)	101 42.6%	102 57.4%
Q4 - 0:10.0	UTA	MISS Boozer Free Throw 2 of 2	101 38.5%	102 61.5%
Q4 - 0:10.0	UTA	MISS Boozer Free Throw 1 of 2	101 24.0%	102 76.0%
Q4 - 0:10.0	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	101 15.1%	102 84.9%
Q4 - 0:10.0	SAS	MISS Parker 21' Jump Shot	101 21.7%	102 78.3%
Q4 - 0:22.0	UTA	D. Williams 16' Jump Shot (17 PTS)	101 44.9%	102 55.1%
Q4 - 0:28.0	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)	101 63.0%	100 37.0%
Q4 - 0:28.0	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)	100 57.5%	100 42.5%
Q4 - 0:36.0	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	99 44.6%	100 55.4%
Q4 - 0:38.0	UTA	MISS Boozer 16' Jump Shot	99 38.4%	100 61.6%
Q4 - 1:00	SAS	Duncan 5' Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Ginobili 3 AST)	99 29.8%	100 70.2%
Q4 - 1:18	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)	97 22.2%	100 77.8%
Q4 - 1:21	SAS	MISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot	97 15.7%	100 84.3%
Q4 - 1:26	SAS	Jefferson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	97 23.3%	100 76.7%
Q4 - 1:28	UTA	MISS Okur Layup	97 20.2%	100 79.8%
Q4 - 1:46	SAS	Brewer STEAL (2 STL)	97 16.1%	100 83.9%
Q4 - 2:05	UTA	Boozer Layup (27 PTS) (Brewer 3 AST)	97 26.7%	100 73.3%
Q4 - 2:14	SAS	Bonner Free Throw 2 of 2 (28 PTS)	97 33.5%	98 66.5%
Q4 - 2:14	SAS	MISS Bonner Free Throw 1 of 2	96 31.8%	98 68.2%
Q4 - 2:32	UTA	Boozer Driving Layup (25 PTS)	96 38.2%	98 61.8%
Q4 - 2:46	SAS	Matthews STEAL (1 STL)	96 45.3%	96 54.7%
Q4 - 3:03	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)	96 61.2%	96 38.8%
Q4 - 3:06	UTA	MISS D. Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot	96 56.9%	96 43.1%
Q4 - 3:22	UTA	Brewer REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	96 46.3%	96 53.7%
Q4 - 3:23	SAS	MISS Parker 24' 3PT Jump Shot	96 51.1%	96 48.9%
Q4 - 3:49	UTA	Brewer Dunk (17 PTS) (D. Williams 11 AST)	96 58.1%	96 41.9%
Q4 - 4:10	UTA	Brewer REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	96 66.6%	94 33.4%
Q4 - 4:11	SAS	MISS Hill 3PT Jump Shot	96 69.4%	94 30.6%
Q4 - 4:25	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	96 75.3%	94 24.7%
Q4 - 4:26	UTA	MISS Matthews 25' 3PT Jump Shot	96 72.8%	94 27.2%
Q4 - 4:51	SAS	Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot (27 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	96 66.7%	94 33.3%
Q4 - 4:56	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	93 48.5%	94 51.5%
Q4 - 4:58	SAS	MISS Hill 3PT Jump Shot	93 41.2%	94 58.8%
Q4 - 5:17	UTA	D. Williams 19' Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Boozer 5 AST)	93 48.8%	94 51.2%
Q4 - 5:33	SAS	Bonner 8' Jump Hook Shot (24 PTS)	93 56.9%	92 43.1%
Q4 - 5:51	SAS	Spurs Rebound	91 48.8%	92 51.2%
Q4 - 5:52	UTA	MISS Okur Tip Shot	91 46.1%	92 53.9%
Q4 - 5:52	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	91 40.0%	92 60.0%
Q4 - 5:53	UTA	MISS Boozer 7' Jump Shot	91 46.1%	92 53.9%
Q4 - 6:09	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	91 41.5%	92 58.5%
Q4 - 6:10	UTA	MISS Okur 20' Jump Shot	91 47.0%	92 53.0%
Q4 - 6:30	SAS	Parker 5' Running Hook Shot (22 PTS)	91 41.4%	92 58.6%
Q4 - 6:43	SAS	Spurs Rebound	89 34.7%	92 65.3%
Q4 - 6:45	UTA	MISS D. Williams 23' Jump Shot	89 32.5%	92 67.5%
Q4 - 7:03	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)	89 29.7%	92 70.3%
Q4 - 7:03	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 2	88 28.5%	92 71.5%
Q4 - 7:06	UTA	Miles Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T13)	88 30.2%	92 69.8%
Q4 - 7:29	SAS	Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)	88 24.1%	92 75.9%
Q4 - 7:45	UTA	Boozer Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T12)	85 15.7%	92 84.3%
Q4 - 7:55	SAS	Miles STEAL (2 STL)	85 12.1%	92 87.9%
Q4 - 8:04	SAS	Jefferson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	85 17.6%	92 82.4%
Q4 - 8:05	UTA	MISS Boozer 18' Fadeaway Jumper	85 16.5%	92 83.5%
Q4 - 8:31	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)	85 14.2%	92 85.8%
Q4 - 8:31	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)	84 13.5%	92 86.5%
Q4 - 8:39	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	83 11.2%	92 88.8%
Q4 - 8:41	UTA	MISS Miles 19' Jump Shot	83 10.5%	92 89.5%
Q4 - 8:54	SAS	Bonner Free Throw 3 of 3 (19 PTS)	83 8.9%	92 91.1%
Q4 - 8:54	SAS	Bonner Free Throw 2 of 3 (18 PTS)	82 8.6%	92 91.4%
Q4 - 8:54	SAS	Bonner Free Throw 1 of 3 (17 PTS)	81 8.2%	92 91.8%
Q4 - 9:15	UTA	Boozer 16' Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Maynor 3 AST)	80 6.8%	92 93.2%
Q4 - 9:25	SAS	Bonner Traveling Turnover (P1.T12)	80 8.5%	90 91.5%
Q4 - 9:38	UTA	Maynor Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T11)	80 10.4%	90 89.6%
Q4 - 10:00	SAS	Bonner 5' Floating Jump Shot (16 PTS)	80 8.4%	90 91.6%
Q4 - 10:27	UTA	Millsap Layup (8 PTS) (Maynor 2 AST)	78 7.8%	90 92.2%
Q4 - 10:32	UTA	Brewer REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	78 9.5%	88 90.5%
Q4 - 10:34	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 18' Jump Shot	78 10.1%	88 89.9%
Q4 - 10:46	UTA	D. Williams Palming Turnover (P3.T10)	78 11.7%	88 88.3%
Q4 - 10:50	UTA	Boozer REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	78 9.5%	88 90.5%
Q4 - 10:52	SAS	MISS Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot	78 10.1%	88 89.9%
Q4 - 11:11	UTA	Miles 19' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (D. Williams 10 AST)	78 12.9%	88 87.1%
Q4 - 11:25	UTA	Millsap REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	78 15.5%	86 84.5%
Q4 - 11:28	UTA	MISS Boozer 20' Jump Shot	78 17.5%	86 82.5%
Q4 - 11:49	SAS	Bonner 21' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Hill 4 AST)	78 15.5%	86 84.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0	UTA		76 12.8%	86 87.2%
Q3 - 0:17.0	SAS	Duncan Layup (19 PTS)	76 11.8%	86 88.2%
Q3 - 0:19.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	74 9.6%	86 90.4%
Q3 - 0:20.0	SAS	MISS Duncan 5' Jump Shot	74 8.6%	86 91.4%
Q3 - 0:37.0	UTA	Millsap 5' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	74 9.6%	86 90.4%
Q3 - 0:57.0	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	74 11.7%	84 88.3%
Q3 - 0:58.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot	74 12.3%	84 87.7%
Q3 - 1:11	UTA	Matthews 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Miles 3 AST)	74 14.5%	84 85.5%
Q3 - 1:28	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	74 20.4%	81 79.6%
Q3 - 1:30	SAS	MISS Duncan 9' Jump Bank Shot	74 21.3%	81 78.7%
Q3 - 1:44	UTA	D. Williams 7' Running Jump Shot (13 PTS)	74 23.4%	81 76.6%
Q3 - 1:51	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	74 27.5%	79 72.5%
Q3 - 1:52	SAS	Okur BLOCK (2 BLK)	74 28.6%	79 71.4%
Q3 - 2:04	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	74 32.1%	79 67.9%
Q3 - 2:05	UTA	MISS Okur Driving Layup	74 30.8%	79 69.2%
Q3 - 2:17	SAS	Parker 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Bonner 3 AST)	74 28.1%	79 71.9%
Q3 - 2:26	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	71 21.1%	79 78.9%
Q3 - 2:28	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot	71 19.0%	79 81.0%
Q3 - 2:36	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	71 21.1%	79 78.9%
Q3 - 2:37	UTA	MISS Matthews 24' 3PT Jump Shot	71 20.2%	79 79.8%
Q3 - 2:55	SAS	Okur STEAL (2 STL)	71 18.1%	79 81.9%
Q3 - 3:06	UTA	Matthews Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)	71 22.5%	79 77.5%
Q3 - 3:23	SAS	Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)	71 19.3%	79 80.7%
Q3 - 3:46	UTA	Okur 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Matthews 3 AST)	68 14.4%	79 85.6%
Q3 - 4:04	SAS	Ginobili Foul Turnover (P1.T10)	68 19.8%	76 80.2%
Q3 - 4:19	UTA	D. Williams Driving Slam Dunk (11 PTS)	68 23.2%	76 76.8%
Q3 - 4:32	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	68 25.9%	74 74.1%
Q3 - 4:33	SAS	MISS Ginobili 13' Jump Shot	68 27.1%	74 72.9%
Q3 - 4:49	UTA	Brewer Layup (15 PTS) (D. Williams 9 AST)	68 30.0%	74 70.0%
Q3 - 4:54	SAS	Boozer STEAL (1 STL)	68 33.2%	72 66.8%
Q3 - 5:12	UTA	D. Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS)	68 37.8%	72 62.2%
Q3 - 5:22	SAS	Duncan 4' Turnaround Jump Shot (17 PTS)	68 45.4%	69 54.6%
Q3 - 5:44	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	66 41.8%	69 58.2%
Q3 - 5:44	UTA	Okur Tip Shot (9 PTS)	66 41.8%	69 58.2%
Q3 - 5:45	UTA	MISS Boozer 20' Jump Shot	66 48.7%	67 51.3%
Q3 - 5:58	UTA	Brewer REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	66 45.4%	67 54.6%
Q3 - 5:59	SAS	MISS Bonner 26' 3PT Jump Shot	66 46.9%	67 53.1%
Q3 - 6:16	UTA	Boozer 17' Fadeaway Jumper (21 PTS) (D. Williams 8 AST)	66 50.3%	67 49.7%
Q3 - 6:33	SAS	Parker Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T8)	66 53.9%	65 46.1%
Q3 - 6:48	UTA	Boozer Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)	66 58.3%	65 41.7%
Q3 - 6:48	UTA	Boozer Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)	66 59.2%	64 40.8%
Q3 - 7:00	SAS	Parker 21' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)	66 61.7%	63 38.3%
Q3 - 7:17	UTA	Brewer Free Throw 1 of 1 (13 PTS)	64 57.6%	63 42.4%
Q3 - 7:28	UTA	Boozer REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	64 64.7%	60 35.3%
Q3 - 7:30	SAS	MISS Duncan 19' Jump Bank Shot	64 65.8%	60 34.2%
Q3 - 7:47	UTA	D. Williams 6' Running Bank Shot (6 PTS)	64 68.5%	60 31.5%
Q3 - 8:09	SAS	Jefferson Layup (7 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	64 70.9%	58 29.1%
Q3 - 8:22	UTA	D. Williams Layup (4 PTS) (Matthews 2 AST)	62 67.9%	58 32.1%
Q3 - 8:27	SAS	Okur STEAL (1 STL)	62 70.9%	56 29.1%
Q3 - 8:44	UTA	Boozer 11' Fadeaway Jumper (17 PTS) (Brewer 2 AST)	62 74.1%	56 25.9%
Q3 - 8:55	SAS	Jefferson Foul Turnover (P2.T6)	62 76.7%	54 23.3%
Q3 - 9:03	SAS	Parker Free Throw Technical (12 PTS)	62 79.0%	54 21.0%
Q3 - 9:03	SAS	Spurs Rebound	61 76.4%	54 23.6%
Q3 - 9:05	SAS	MISS Jefferson 18' Jump Shot	61 74.5%	54 25.5%
Q3 - 9:26	UTA	Okur 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (D. Williams 7 AST)	61 76.5%	54 23.5%
Q3 - 9:43	SAS	McDyess 20' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Jefferson 2 AST)	61 81.3%	51 18.7%
Q3 - 10:01	UTA	D. Williams Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)	59 78.3%	51 21.7%
Q3 - 10:16	UTA	Boozer REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	59 75.8%	51 24.2%
Q3 - 10:17	SAS	MISS Jefferson Free Throw 2 of 2	59 76.1%	51 23.9%
Q3 - 10:17	SAS	MISS Jefferson Free Throw 1 of 2	59 77.9%	51 22.1%
Q3 - 10:38	UTA	Okur 15' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS) (D. Williams 6 AST)	59 78.4%	51 21.6%
Q3 - 11:01	SAS	Bogans Layup (2 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	59 80.0%	49 20.0%
Q3 - 11:05	UTA	Okur Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T7)	57 77.8%	49 22.2%
Q3 - 11:13	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	57 75.2%	49 24.8%
Q3 - 11:14	SAS	MISS Duncan 9' Jump Hook Shot	57 76.1%	49 23.9%
Q3 - 11:29	SAS	McDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	57 77.9%	49 22.1%
Q3 - 11:31	UTA	MISS Matthews 8' Jump Bank Shot	57 77.1%	49 22.9%
Q3 - 11:41	SAS	Bogans Backcourt Turnover (P2.T5)	57 75.3%	49 24.7%
Q3 - 11:49	UTA	D. Williams Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)	57 77.9%	49 22.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0	UTA		57 75.3%	49 24.7%
Q2 - 0:01.0	UTA	Boozer REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	57 75.1%	49 24.9%
Q2 - 0:03.0	SAS	Brewer BLOCK (1 BLK)	57 75.6%	49 24.4%
Q2 - 0:07.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	57 76.9%	49 23.1%
Q2 - 0:08.0	UTA	MISS Millsap Layup	57 76.4%	49 23.6%
Q2 - 0:31.0	SAS	Parker Driving Layup (11 PTS)	57 75.1%	49 24.9%
Q2 - 0:41.0	UTA	Matthews Free Throw 1 of 1 (8 PTS)	55 71.9%	49 28.1%
Q2 - 0:43.0	UTA	D. Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	55 77.5%	46 22.5%
Q2 - 0:46.0	SAS	MISS Duncan 14' Jump Shot	55 78.1%	46 21.9%
Q2 - 1:03	UTA	Boozer Alley Oop Layup (15 PTS) (D. Williams 4 AST)	55 78.9%	46 21.1%
Q2 - 1:17	SAS	Jefferson 22' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Bonner 2 AST)	55 81.5%	44 18.5%
Q2 - 1:46	UTA	D. Williams Dunk (2 PTS) (Brewer 1 AST)	53 78.9%	44 21.1%
Q2 - 2:05	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)	53 80.6%	42 19.4%
Q2 - 2:05	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)	52 80.0%	42 20.0%
Q2 - 2:17	UTA	Millsap Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)	51 78.6%	42 21.4%
Q2 - 2:38	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	51 76.3%	42 23.7%
Q2 - 2:39	SAS	MISS Ginobili Driving Layup	51 77.0%	42 23.0%
Q2 - 2:55	UTA	Matthews 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Millsap 1 AST)	51 78.6%	42 21.4%
Q2 - 3:10	UTA	Boozer REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	51 82.0%	39 18.0%
Q2 - 3:11	SAS	MISS Bogans 22' Jump Shot	51 82.7%	39 17.3%
Q2 - 3:25	UTA	Boozer 20' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Miles 2 AST)	51 84.1%	39 15.9%
Q2 - 3:45	SAS	Hill 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Bonner 1 AST)	51 85.4%	37 14.6%
Q2 - 4:05	UTA	Miles Foul Turnover (P1.T4)	48 81.6%	37 18.4%
Q2 - 4:22	SAS	Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Hill 3 AST)	48 79.5%	37 20.5%
Q2 - 4:44	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	45 75.5%	37 24.5%
Q2 - 4:45	UTA	MISS Brewer Reverse Layup	45 74.8%	37 25.2%
Q2 - 4:51	UTA	Miles REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	45 73.0%	37 27.0%
Q2 - 4:52	SAS	MISS Hill 18' Jump Shot	45 73.8%	37 26.2%
Q2 - 5:12	SAS	Bogans REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	45 75.0%	37 25.0%
Q2 - 5:14	UTA	MISS Millsap 17' Jump Shot	45 74.3%	37 25.7%
Q2 - 5:34	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	45 72.8%	37 27.2%
Q2 - 5:34	SAS	Bonner Layup (9 PTS)	45 72.8%	37 27.2%
Q2 - 5:36	SAS	MISS Bogans 24' 3PT Jump Shot	43 68.6%	37 31.4%
Q2 - 6:02	UTA	Brewer Slam Dunk (10 PTS) (Miles 1 AST)	43 69.9%	37 30.1%
Q2 - 6:05	SAS	Brewer STEAL (1 STL)	43 71.8%	35 28.2%
Q2 - 6:32	UTA	Miles 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (D. Williams 3 AST)	43 74.6%	35 25.4%
Q2 - 6:51	SAS	Bogans Traveling Turnover (P1.T3)	43 78.4%	32 21.6%
Q2 - 7:07	UTA	Boozer REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	43 80.0%	32 20.0%
Q2 - 7:07	UTA	Boozer Layup (11 PTS)	43 80.0%	32 20.0%
Q2 - 7:11	UTA	MISS D. Williams 22' Jump Shot	43 82.9%	30 17.1%
Q2 - 7:38	SAS	Bonner 4' Jump Hook Shot (7 PTS)	43 81.7%	30 18.3%
Q2 - 7:58	UTA	Miles Running Layup (5 PTS) (D. Williams 2 AST)	41 80.1%	30 19.9%
Q2 - 8:07	SAS	Bonner 23' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Hill 2 AST)	41 80.8%	28 19.2%
Q2 - 8:33	UTA	Brewer Dunk (8 PTS) (Boozer 4 AST)	39 79.2%	28 20.8%
Q2 - 8:45	SAS	Miles STEAL (1 STL)	39 80.9%	26 19.1%
Q2 - 9:01	UTA	Brewer Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	39 81.9%	26 18.1%
Q2 - 9:01	UTA	Brewer Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	39 82.3%	25 17.7%
Q2 - 9:14	SAS	Hill Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	39 83.4%	24 16.6%
Q2 - 9:14	SAS	Hill Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	38 83.1%	24 16.9%
Q2 - 9:15	SAS	Blair REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	37 81.9%	24 18.1%
Q2 - 9:18	UTA	MISS Boozer Layup	37 81.4%	24 18.6%
Q2 - 9:41	SAS	Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Hill 1 AST)	37 80.2%	24 19.8%
Q2 - 9:49	UTA	Boozer Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	34 76.7%	24 23.3%
Q2 - 9:58	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	34 74.6%	24 25.4%
Q2 - 9:58	UTA	MISS Maynor Driving Layup	34 76.1%	24 23.9%
Q2 - 10:04	UTA	Boozer REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	34 74.1%	24 25.9%
Q2 - 10:06	UTA	MISS Brewer 22' Jump Shot	34 75.6%	24 24.4%
Q2 - 10:28	SAS	Ginobili 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	34 74.1%	24 25.9%
Q2 - 10:41	UTA	Okur Foul Turnover (P1.T2)	32 72.3%	24 27.7%
Q2 - 10:52	UTA	Millsap REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	32 70.0%	24 30.0%
Q2 - 10:54	SAS	MISS Blair Free Throw 2 of 2	32 70.3%	24 29.7%
Q2 - 10:54	SAS	Blair Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	32 71.5%	24 28.5%
Q2 - 11:07	UTA	Brewer Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)	31 69.6%	24 30.4%
Q2 - 11:17	UTA	Brewer REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	31 67.3%	24 32.7%
Q2 - 11:18	UTA	MISS Maynor 7' Floating Jump Shot	31 68.9%	24 31.1%
Q2 - 11:25	UTA	Brewer REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	31 67.3%	24 32.7%
Q2 - 11:27	SAS	Okur BLOCK (1 BLK)	31 68.0%	24 32.0%
Q2 - 11:41	SAS	Jefferson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	31 69.6%	24 30.4%
Q2 - 11:42	UTA	MISS Miles 25' 3PT Jump Shot	31 68.9%	24 31.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS		31 67.3%	24 32.7%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	Spurs Rebound	31 69.6%	24 30.4%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	MISS Hill 44' 3PT Jump Shot	31 68.0%	24 32.0%
Q1 - 0:02.0	UTA	Boozer 6' Jump Hook Shot (9 PTS) (Maynor 1 AST)	31 68.5%	24 31.5%
Q1 - 0:08.0	SAS	McDyess Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	31 71.1%	22 28.9%
Q1 - 0:08.0	SAS	McDyess Free Throw 1 of 2 (2 PTS)	30 70.5%	22 29.5%
Q1 - 0:28.0	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	29 68.6%	22 31.4%
Q1 - 0:29.0	UTA	MISS Maynor 17' Jump Shot	29 68.1%	22 31.9%
Q1 - 0:41.0	SAS	Jefferson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)	29 66.9%	22 33.1%
Q1 - 0:49.0	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	26 61.9%	22 38.1%
Q1 - 0:50.0	SAS	MISS Hill 20' Jump Shot	26 60.6%	22 39.4%
Q1 - 1:05	UTA	Miles 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Matthews 1 AST)	26 61.5%	22 38.5%
Q1 - 1:24	SAS	McDyess Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	26 66.6%	19 33.4%
Q1 - 1:24	SAS	MISS McDyess Free Throw 1 of 2	25 65.9%	19 34.1%
Q1 - 1:24	SAS	Spurs Rebound	25 65.9%	19 34.1%
Q1 - 1:24	SAS	MISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot	25 64.9%	19 35.1%
Q1 - 1:37	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	25 65.9%	19 34.1%
Q1 - 1:38	UTA	MISS Matthews Layup	25 65.5%	19 34.5%
Q1 - 1:52	UTA	D. Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	25 64.4%	19 35.6%
Q1 - 1:53	SAS	MISS McDyess 13' Fadeaway Jumper	25 64.9%	19 35.1%
Q1 - 2:11	UTA	Millsap Driving Layup (4 PTS)	25 65.9%	19 34.1%
Q1 - 2:36	SAS	Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	25 68.3%	17 31.7%
Q1 - 2:57	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	22 63.8%	17 36.2%
Q1 - 2:58	UTA	D. Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	22 61.9%	17 38.1%
Q1 - 2:58	UTA	MISS D. Williams Tip Shot	22 63.2%	17 36.8%
Q1 - 2:59	UTA	MISS D. Williams Driving Layup	22 63.2%	17 36.8%
Q1 - 3:18	SAS	Parker Driving Layup (9 PTS)	22 61.7%	17 38.3%
Q1 - 3:23	SAS	McDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	20 59.5%	17 40.5%
Q1 - 3:24	UTA	MISS Matthews 20' Jump Shot	20 58.8%	17 41.2%
Q1 - 3:42	SAS	Parker Driving Layup (7 PTS)	20 57.3%	17 42.7%
Q1 - 4:02	UTA	Millsap 13' Fadeaway Jumper (2 PTS) (Boozer 3 AST)	18 54.7%	17 45.3%
Q1 - 4:26	UTA	Brewer REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	18 56.8%	15 43.2%
Q1 - 4:27	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	18 57.5%	15 42.5%
Q1 - 4:35	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	18 59.2%	15 40.8%
Q1 - 4:37	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 20' Jump Shot	18 57.6%	15 42.4%
Q1 - 4:52	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	18 59.2%	15 40.8%
Q1 - 4:54	UTA	MISS D. Williams 17' Fadeaway Jumper	18 58.5%	15 41.5%
Q1 - 5:11	SAS	Duncan 19' Jump Bank Shot (13 PTS)	18 56.4%	15 43.6%
Q1 - 5:34	UTA	Brewer 22' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	16 54.5%	15 45.5%
Q1 - 5:59	SAS	Parker Foul Turnover (P1.T1)	16 56.4%	13 43.6%
Q1 - 6:08	SAS	Jefferson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 58.5%	13 41.5%
Q1 - 6:10	UTA	MISS Boozer Layup	16 57.8%	13 42.2%
Q1 - 6:25	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 1 (11 PTS)	16 56.3%	13 43.7%
Q1 - 6:36	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	13 52.2%	13 47.8%
Q1 - 6:37	UTA	MISS D. Williams 16' Jump Shot	13 51.5%	13 48.5%
Q1 - 6:43	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	13 50.0%	13 50.0%
Q1 - 6:44	SAS	MISS Parker 21' Jump Shot	13 50.7%	13 49.3%
Q1 - 6:54	SAS	McDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	13 52.2%	13 47.8%
Q1 - 6:56	UTA	MISS D. Williams 21' Jump Shot	13 51.5%	13 48.5%
Q1 - 7:09	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	13 50.0%	13 50.0%
Q1 - 7:09	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	12 49.5%	13 50.5%
Q1 - 7:18	UTA	Brewer REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	11 48.1%	13 51.9%
Q1 - 7:18	UTA	Brewer Layup (2 PTS)	11 48.1%	13 51.9%
Q1 - 7:21	UTA	MISS Brewer Layup	11 51.6%	11 48.4%
Q1 - 7:33	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	11 50.0%	11 50.0%
Q1 - 7:33	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 2	10 49.6%	11 50.4%
Q1 - 7:47	UTA	Matthews Layup (2 PTS) (Boozer 2 AST)	10 50.1%	11 49.9%
Q1 - 7:56	UTA	Brewer REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	10 52.1%	9 47.9%
Q1 - 7:58	SAS	MISS Duncan 18' Jump Bank Shot	10 52.8%	9 47.2%
Q1 - 8:14	UTA	Boozer Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	10 54.3%	9 45.7%
Q1 - 8:14	UTA	Boozer Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	10 54.7%	8 45.3%
Q1 - 8:32	SAS	Duncan Layup (6 PTS) (Jefferson 1 AST)	10 56.3%	7 43.7%
Q1 - 8:44	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	8 54.3%	7 45.7%
Q1 - 8:46	UTA	MISS Boozer 16' Jump Shot	8 53.7%	7 46.3%
Q1 - 9:00	SAS	Duncan 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	8 52.2%	7 47.8%
Q1 - 9:15	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 50.5%	7 49.5%
Q1 - 9:17	UTA	MISS Matthews 13' Turnaround Jump Shot	6 49.9%	7 50.1%
Q1 - 9:37	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	6 48.6%	7 51.4%
Q1 - 9:37	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	5 48.2%	7 51.8%
Q1 - 9:44	UTA	Okur Layup (2 PTS) (Boozer 1 AST)	4 46.5%	7 53.5%
Q1 - 9:59	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 48.6%	5 51.4%
Q1 - 10:01	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 22' Jump Shot	4 49.2%	5 50.8%
Q1 - 10:16	SAS	Blair REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 50.6%	5 49.4%
Q1 - 10:17	UTA	MISS Brewer 21' Jump Shot	4 50.0%	5 50.0%
Q1 - 10:31	SAS	Parker 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	4 48.5%	5 51.5%
Q1 - 10:44	UTA	Boozer Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	2 46.9%	5 53.1%
Q1 - 10:44	UTA	Boozer Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	2 47.3%	4 52.7%
Q1 - 11:00	SAS	Duncan Driving Layup (2 PTS)	2 48.6%	3 51.4%
Q1 - 11:28	UTA	Boozer Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	0 47.1%	3 52.9%
Q1 - 11:39	UTA	Brewer REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 50.5%	0 49.5%
Q1 - 11:40	SAS	MISS Jefferson 17' Jump Shot	0 51.0%	0 49.0%
Q1 - 12:00	UTA	Jump Ball Okur vs. Duncan: Tip to McDyess	0 52.2%	0 47.8%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.17 58.7%

UTA

1.20 59.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

82%

UTA

63%

Midrange

SAS

35%

UTA

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

13.5

41%

61%

UTA

10.5

64%

95%

Free Throws

SAS

77%

UTA

87%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Bonner	28	88%	14.0 / 16
T. Duncan	23	64%	11.5 / 18
T. Parker	22	73%	11.0 / 15
R. Jefferson	7	50%	3.5 / 7
A. McDyess	5	63%	2.5 / 4
M. Ginobili	5	36%	2.5 / 7
G. Hill	5	36%	2.5 / 7
R. Mason Jr.	3	30%	1.5 / 5
K. Bogans	2	33%	1.0 / 3
D. Blair	1	25%	0.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Boozer	27	61%	13.5 / 22
R. Brewer	17	71%	8.5 / 12
D. Williams	17	53%	8.5 / 16
M. Okur	14	70%	7.0 / 10
W. Matthews	11	55%	5.5 / 10
C. Miles	10	83%	5.0 / 6
P. Millsap	8	67%	4.0 / 6
E. Maynor	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+11

-15

UTA

+10

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.17 58.7%

UTA

1.20 59.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	110.4 110.8	SAS 112.2 UTA 116.9 +4.6
Pace	91.5 93.8	SAS 86.9 UTA 92.3 +5.5
Avg. Poss. Time	16.0 15.5	SAS 16.6 UTA 15.6 +1.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	51.5% 52.4%	SAS 55.0% UTA 57.6% +2.6%
TO %	14.1% 15.5%	SAS 15.2% UTA 13.2% +2.0%
ORB %	26.8% 26.8%	SAS 23.3% UTA 25.7% +2.4%
FTrt	29.6 34.0	SAS 44.3 +25.3 UTA 19.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	58.1% 67.8%	SAS 55.9% UTA 69.0% +13.1%
STL %	6.9% 8.8%	SAS 6.7% UTA 9.0% +2.3%
BLK %	6.9% 8.1%	SAS 5.9% UTA 6.3% +0.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.06 and 3.06.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	54.0% 55.2%	SAS 58.7% UTA 59.8% +1.1%
Rim FG%	62.2% 61.0%	SAS 82.4% +19.9% UTA 62.5%
Mid FG%	40.7% 42.6%	SAS 35.5% UTA 41.7% +6.2%
3P %	35.8% 36.4%	SAS 40.9% UTA 63.6% +22.7%
FT %	74.0% 74.1%	SAS 77.4% UTA 86.7% +9.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	36.1% 41.4%	SAS 24.3% UTA 40.5% +16.2%
Mid Att. %	40.6% 40.2%	SAS 44.3% +1.3% UTA 45.6%
3P Att. %	23.2% 18.4%	SAS 31.4% +17.5% UTA 13.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	UTA
Possessions	90	89
Possession Minutes	24.9	23.1
Points	101	104
Rebounds	33	32
Assists	19	29
Steals	6	8
Blocks	4	3
Turnovers (Team)	15 (0)	13 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (4)	9 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	26 (2)	23 (4)
Field Goals	34-70	42-79
At-the-Rim FG	14-17	20-32
Midrange FG	11-31	15-36
2-Point FG	25-48	35-68
3-Point FG	9-22	7-11
Free Throws	24-31	13-15
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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6 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 34	35.5	23	64%	11	2	1	1	2	4	3	8	7-7	100%	8-15	53%	0-0	-
Richard Jefferson F · 6'7" 233 · 29	34.9	7	50%	4	2	1	1	2	1	0	4	0-2	0%	2-4	50%	1-2	50%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 28	33.0	22	73%	0	5	1	0	5	2	0	0	7-9	78%	6-9	67%	1-2	50%
Antonio McDyess C · 6'9" 245 · 35	14.9	5	63%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	3-4	75%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Keith Bogans G · 6'5" 215 · 30	8.8	2	33%	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Matt Bonner C-F · 6'10" 235 · 30	31.9	28	88%	8	3	0	0	1	1	4	4	4-5	80%	6-7	86%	4-7	57%
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 32	24.1	5	36%	2	3	2	0	2	3	0	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Roger Mason Jr. G · 6'5" 205 · 29	21.4	3	30%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-3	0%	1-2	50%
George Hill G · 6'3" 188 · 24	21.0	5	36%	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	1-4	25%
DeJuan Blair C-F · 6'7" 270 · 21	13.7	1	25%	2	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Malik Hairston G · 6'6" 220 · 23	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Theo Ratliff C · 6'10" 235 · 37
Marcus Haislip #22 · F · 6'10" 230 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Michael Finley #4 · G-F · 6'7" 225 · 37	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Ian Mahinmi #28 · C · 6'11" 262 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	59%	33	19	6	4	15	0	7	26	24-31	77%	25-48	52%	9-22	41%

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6 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 34	35.5	23	64%	11	2	1	1	2	4	3	8	7-7	100%	8-15	53%	0-0	-
Richard Jefferson F · 6'7" 233 · 29	34.9	7	50%	4	2	1	1	2	1	0	4	0-2	0%	2-4	50%	1-2	50%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 28	33.0	22	73%	0	5	1	0	5	2	0	0	7-9	78%	6-9	67%	1-2	50%
Antonio McDyess C · 6'9" 245 · 35	14.9	5	63%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	3-4	75%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Keith Bogans G · 6'5" 215 · 30	8.8	2	33%	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Matt Bonner C-F · 6'10" 235 · 30	31.9	28	88%	8	3	0	0	1	1	4	4	4-5	80%	6-7	86%	4-7	57%
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 32	24.1	5	36%	2	3	2	0	2	3	0	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Roger Mason Jr. G · 6'5" 205 · 29	21.4	3	30%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-3	0%	1-2	50%
George Hill G · 6'3" 188 · 24	21.0	5	36%	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	1-4	25%
DeJuan Blair C-F · 6'7" 270 · 21	13.7	1	25%	2	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Malik Hairston G · 6'6" 220 · 23	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Theo Ratliff C · 6'10" 235 · 37
Marcus Haislip #22 · F · 6'10" 230 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Michael Finley #4 · G-F · 6'7" 225 · 37	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Ian Mahinmi #28 · C · 6'11" 262 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	59%	33	19	6	4	15	0	7	26	24-31	77%	25-48	52%	9-22	41%

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10 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Carlos Boozer F · 6'9" 258 · 28	44.4	27	61%	7	5	1	0	2	4	2	5	7-9	78%	10-18	56%	0-0	-
Ronnie Brewer F · 6'7" 235 · 25	42.9	17	71%	10	3	2	1	1	0	2	8	3-3	100%	7-11	64%	0-0	-
Deron Williams G · 6'3" 200 · 25	41.9	17	53%	3	11	0	0	3	2	1	2	0-0	-	7-14	50%	1-2	50%
Wesley Matthews G · 6'5" 220 · 23	34.1	11	55%	0	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	1-1	100%	2-6	33%	2-4	50%
Mehmet Okur C · 6'11" 260 · 31	25.9	14	70%	9	0	2	2	2	4	3	6	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	2-2	100%
Paul Millsap F · 6'8" 246 · 25	25.6	8	67%	2	1	0	0	1	4	1	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-0	-
CJ Miles G · 6'6" 220 · 23	18.9	10	83%	1	3	2	0	2	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-3	67%
Eric Maynor G · 6'3" 175 · 22	6.1	0	0%	0	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Andrei Kirilenko F · 6'9" 235 · 29
Kyrylo Fesenko C · 7'1" 280 · 23
Ronnie Price G · 6'2" 190 · 26
Kosta Koufos C · 7'0" 265 · 21
Kyle Korver #26 · G · 6'7" 212 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Matt Harpring #15 · F · 6'7" 230 · 34	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	104	60%	32	29	8	3	13	0	9	23	13-15	87%	35-68	51%	7-11	64%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE