Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, December 25, 2009

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	6	Nuggets	53%	99	96
	13	Trail Blazers	47%	98	107

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
DEN	112.9	85	90.4
POR	128.9	83	78.3

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+17

-9

POR

+12

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.03 51.6%

POR

1.24 62.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	POR
Q4 - 0:00.0	POR		96 0%	107 100%
Q4 - 0:16.0	DEN	Smith Driving Layup (20 PTS)	96 0.1%	107 99.9%
Q4 - 0:23.0	POR	Blake 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Bayless 7 AST)	94 0.1%	107 99.9%
Q4 - 0:42.0	DEN	Smith 12' Pullup Jump Shot (18 PTS)	94 0.1%	104 99.9%
Q4 - 0:46.0	POR	Bayless Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	92 0.1%	104 99.9%
Q4 - 0:46.0	POR	MISS Bayless Free Throw 1 of 2	92 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 1:03	DEN	Smith Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T9)	92 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 1:09	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	92 0.2%	103 99.8%
Q4 - 1:10	POR	MISS Bayless Free Throw 1 of 1	92 0.2%	103 99.8%
Q4 - 1:29	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:5 Def:9)	92 0.7%	101 99.3%
Q4 - 1:29	DEN	Martin Putback Layup (12 PTS)	92 0.7%	101 99.3%
Q4 - 1:30	DEN	MISS Smith 25' 3PT Jump Shot	90 0.3%	101 99.7%
Q4 - 1:38	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:4 Def:9)	90 0.6%	101 99.4%
Q4 - 1:39	POR	MISS Roy 14' Pullup Jump Shot	90 0.5%	101 99.5%
Q4 - 1:59	POR	Howard REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)	90 0.4%	101 99.6%
Q4 - 1:59	DEN	MISS Anthony 24' 3PT Jump Shot	90 0.4%	101 99.6%
Q4 - 2:13	POR	Blake 24' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Bayless 6 AST)	90 0.7%	101 99.3%
Q4 - 2:41	DEN	Anthony 14' Pullup Jump Shot (32 PTS)	90 1.6%	98 98.4%
Q4 - 2:51	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:4 Def:8)	88 1.8%	98 98.2%
Q4 - 2:52	POR	MISS Bayless 3PT Jump Shot	88 1.5%	98 98.5%
Q4 - 3:15	POR	Roy REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	88 1.0%	98 99.0%
Q4 - 3:16	DEN	MISS Smith 27' 3PT Jump Shot	88 1.2%	98 98.8%
Q4 - 3:27	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)	88 1.7%	98 98.3%
Q4 - 3:27	POR	MISS Blake 26' 3PT Jump Shot	88 1.4%	98 98.6%
Q4 - 3:49	POR	Roy REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	88 2.2%	98 97.8%
Q4 - 3:51	DEN	MISS Smith 11' Running Jump Shot	88 2.4%	98 97.6%
Q4 - 4:05	POR	Blake 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Roy 4 AST)	88 3.1%	98 96.9%
Q4 - 4:25	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:12)	88 6.2%	95 93.8%
Q4 - 4:26	DEN	MISS Anthony Driving Layup	88 6.9%	95 93.1%
Q4 - 4:40	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	88 8.9%	95 91.1%
Q4 - 4:41	POR	MISS Bayless 21' Jump Shot	88 8.0%	95 92.0%
Q4 - 5:01	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:11)	88 8.9%	95 91.1%
Q4 - 5:02	DEN	MISS Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2	88 9.3%	95 90.7%
Q4 - 5:02	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (30 PTS)	88 11.5%	95 88.5%
Q4 - 5:23	POR	Howard 10' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	87 8.9%	95 91.1%
Q4 - 5:45	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:10)	87 11.7%	93 88.3%
Q4 - 5:45	DEN	MISS Nene Free Throw 1 of 1	87 12.2%	93 87.8%
Q4 - 6:02	POR	Roy 24' 3PT Jump Shot (41 PTS) (Howard 3 AST)	85 11.6%	93 88.4%
Q4 - 6:15	POR	Roy REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	85 18.8%	90 81.2%
Q4 - 6:16	POR	MISS Blake 24' 3PT Jump Shot	85 22.5%	90 77.5%
Q4 - 6:19	POR	Bayless REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	85 18.8%	90 81.2%
Q4 - 6:20	DEN	Aldridge BLOCK (1 BLK)	85 20.3%	90 79.7%
Q4 - 6:37	POR	Aldridge Slam Dunk (10 PTS) (Howard 2 AST)	85 24.1%	90 75.9%
Q4 - 6:55	POR	Howard REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)	85 29.6%	88 70.4%
Q4 - 6:56	DEN	MISS Anthony 9' Pullup Jump Shot	85 31.7%	88 68.3%
Q4 - 7:18	POR	Roy 3PT Jump Shot (38 PTS) (Bayless 5 AST)	85 38.7%	88 61.3%
Q4 - 7:38	DEN	Smith 25' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Anthony 3 AST)	85 51.8%	85 48.2%
Q4 - 7:53	DEN	Lawson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	82 38.6%	85 61.4%
Q4 - 7:54	POR	MISS Roy 17' Step Back Jump Shot	82 36.4%	85 63.6%
Q4 - 8:17	DEN	Anthony 5' Running Jump Shot (29 PTS)	82 34.0%	85 66.0%
Q4 - 8:34	POR	Roy Driving Layup (35 PTS)	80 28.3%	85 71.7%
Q4 - 8:49	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:9)	80 33.9%	83 66.1%
Q4 - 8:50	DEN	MISS Nene Layup	80 35.6%	83 64.4%
Q4 - 9:09	POR	Blake 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Bayless 4 AST)	80 41.1%	83 58.9%
Q4 - 9:32	DEN	Smith 11' Pullup Jump Shot (13 PTS)	80 53.1%	80 46.9%
Q4 - 9:53	POR	Roy 9' Running Jump Shot (33 PTS) (Howard 1 AST)	78 46.9%	80 53.1%
Q4 - 10:13	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (27 PTS)	78 53.0%	78 47.0%
Q4 - 10:13	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (26 PTS)	77 52.1%	78 47.9%
Q4 - 10:15	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)	76 47.4%	78 52.6%
Q4 - 10:17	DEN	Howard BLOCK (1 BLK)	76 43.4%	78 56.6%
Q4 - 10:27	POR	Bayless Driving Dunk (5 PTS) (Blake 1 AST)	76 47.4%	78 52.6%
Q4 - 10:41	POR	Blake REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	76 53.0%	76 47.0%
Q4 - 10:43	DEN	MISS Anthony 21' Jump Shot	76 54.7%	76 45.3%
Q4 - 10:56	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	76 58.6%	76 41.4%
Q4 - 10:56	POR	MISS Roy 14' Fadeaway Jumper	76 56.9%	76 43.1%
Q4 - 11:11	DEN	Carter Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)	76 53.3%	76 46.7%
Q4 - 11:23	POR	Blake 15' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Aldridge 3 AST)	76 58.4%	76 41.6%
Q4 - 11:32	POR	TRAIL BLAZERS Rebound	76 63.6%	74 36.4%
Q4 - 11:34	DEN	MISS Smith 16' Jump Shot	76 65.0%	74 35.0%
Q4 - 11:42	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	76 68.3%	74 31.7%
Q4 - 11:42	DEN	MISS Smith 9' Running Jump Shot	76 65.0%	74 35.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0	DEN		76 68.3%	74 31.7%
Q3 - 0:00.0	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	76 68.3%	74 31.7%
Q3 - 0:00.0	DEN	MISS Smith 20' Step Back Jump Shot	76 65.1%	74 34.9%
Q3 - 0:27.0	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	76 67.5%	74 32.5%
Q3 - 0:29.0	POR	MISS Bayless Driving Layup	76 66.3%	74 33.7%
Q3 - 0:42.0	DEN	Martin 17' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Lawson 1 AST)	76 63.3%	74 36.7%
Q3 - 0:59.0	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)	74 58.0%	74 42.0%
Q3 - 1:01	POR	MISS Bayless 3PT Jump Shot	74 56.4%	74 43.6%
Q3 - 1:09	POR	Pendergraph REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	74 53.2%	74 46.8%
Q3 - 1:10	DEN	MISS Smith 20' Jump Shot	74 54.6%	74 45.4%
Q3 - 1:20	DEN	Carter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	74 57.7%	74 42.3%
Q3 - 1:21	POR	MISS Aldridge 18' Jump Shot	74 56.4%	74 43.6%
Q3 - 1:38	POR	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	74 53.3%	74 46.7%
Q3 - 1:40	DEN	MISS Smith Driving Layup	74 54.6%	74 45.4%
Q3 - 1:46	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)	74 57.8%	74 42.2%
Q3 - 1:47	DEN	MISS Smith Driving Layup	74 54.6%	74 45.4%
Q3 - 2:00	POR	Miller 9' Pullup Jump Shot (14 PTS)	74 57.8%	74 42.2%
Q3 - 2:22	DEN	Smith 9' Running Jump Shot (11 PTS)	74 62.2%	72 37.8%
Q3 - 2:40	POR	Miller 17' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	72 57.6%	72 42.4%
Q3 - 3:03	DEN	Smith 8' Running Jump Shot (9 PTS)	72 62.2%	70 37.8%
Q3 - 3:13	POR	Roy 15' Turnaround Jump Shot (31 PTS)	70 58.2%	70 41.8%
Q3 - 3:36	DEN	Carter 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Anthony 2 AST)	70 62.2%	68 37.8%
Q3 - 3:49	POR	Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	67 53.7%	68 46.3%
Q3 - 3:49	POR	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	67 54.4%	67 45.6%
Q3 - 3:56	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	67 57.9%	66 42.1%
Q3 - 3:57	DEN	MISS Anthony 22' Jump Shot	67 59.3%	66 40.7%
Q3 - 4:08	POR	Miller Foul Turnover (P1.T11)	67 62.4%	66 37.6%
Q3 - 4:20	DEN	Anthony 22' Jump Shot (25 PTS)	67 57.5%	66 42.5%
Q3 - 4:40	POR	Roy Traveling Turnover (P2.T10)	65 53.9%	66 46.1%
Q3 - 4:58	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	65 48.8%	66 51.2%
Q3 - 4:59	DEN	MISS Afflalo Free Throw 1 of 1	65 49.5%	66 50.5%
Q3 - 5:09	POR	Aldridge Alley Oop Dunk (8 PTS) (Miller 8 AST)	63 45.0%	66 55.0%
Q3 - 5:21	DEN	Martin 9' Turnaround Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Anthony 1 AST)	63 48.7%	64 51.3%
Q3 - 5:38	POR	Roy Reverse Layup (29 PTS) (Miller 7 AST)	61 45.0%	64 55.0%
Q3 - 5:52	DEN	Anthony Driving Layup (23 PTS)	61 48.7%	62 51.3%
Q3 - 5:59	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	59 45.0%	62 55.0%
Q3 - 5:59	DEN	Webster BLOCK (1 BLK)	59 41.8%	62 58.2%
Q3 - 6:03	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	59 45.6%	62 54.4%
Q3 - 6:04	POR	MISS Miller 17' Jump Shot	59 44.2%	62 55.8%
Q3 - 6:17	POR	Webster REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	59 41.1%	62 58.9%
Q3 - 6:18	DEN	MISS Carter 21' Jump Shot	59 42.5%	62 57.5%
Q3 - 6:37	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	59 45.5%	62 54.5%
Q3 - 6:38	POR	MISS Miller Free Throw 2 of 2	59 44.9%	62 55.1%
Q3 - 6:38	POR	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	59 42.2%	62 57.8%
Q3 - 6:39	DEN	Miller STEAL (1 STL)	59 45.1%	61 54.9%
Q3 - 6:51	POR	Miller 17' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Roy 3 AST)	59 49.6%	61 50.4%
Q3 - 7:15	DEN	Carter 7' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS)	59 53.0%	59 47.0%
Q3 - 7:39	POR	Webster 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Miller 6 AST)	57 49.5%	59 50.5%
Q3 - 7:50	DEN	Anthony Foul Turnover (P1.T6)	57 56.9%	56 43.1%
Q3 - 8:02	POR	Webster Driving Reverse Layup (8 PTS) (Aldridge 2 AST)	57 60.7%	56 39.3%
Q3 - 8:12	POR	TRAIL BLAZERS Rebound	57 64.0%	54 36.0%
Q3 - 8:12	POR	MISS Webster 16' Jump Shot	57 66.5%	54 33.5%
Q3 - 8:29	DEN	Anthony Driving Layup (21 PTS)	57 64.0%	54 36.0%
Q3 - 8:41	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	55 60.7%	54 39.3%
Q3 - 8:43	DEN	MISS Anthony 17' Pullup Jump Shot	55 57.9%	54 42.1%
Q3 - 8:57	POR	Webster 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Miller 5 AST)	55 60.7%	54 39.3%
Q3 - 9:13	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)	55 67.3%	51 32.7%
Q3 - 9:13	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)	54 66.8%	51 33.2%
Q3 - 9:21	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	53 64.0%	51 36.0%
Q3 - 9:22	POR	MISS Roy 16' Fadeaway Jumper	53 63.0%	51 37.0%
Q3 - 9:39	POR	TRAIL BLAZERS Rebound	53 60.5%	51 39.5%
Q3 - 9:39	DEN	MISS Anthony 17' Jump Shot	53 61.6%	51 38.4%
Q3 - 9:43	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	53 64.0%	51 36.0%
Q3 - 9:45	DEN	MISS Nene 16' Jump Shot	53 61.6%	51 38.4%
Q3 - 10:01	POR	Roy 8' Step Back Jump Shot (27 PTS)	53 63.8%	51 36.2%
Q3 - 10:14	POR	Howard REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)	53 67.0%	49 33.0%
Q3 - 10:15	POR	MISS Miller 17' Jump Shot	53 69.2%	49 30.8%
Q3 - 10:38	DEN	Nene Reverse Layup (7 PTS) (Afflalo 1 AST)	53 67.0%	49 33.0%
Q3 - 10:43	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	51 63.9%	49 36.1%
Q3 - 10:45	DEN	MISS Nene 8' Turnaround Hook Shot	51 61.5%	49 38.5%
Q3 - 11:00	POR	Aldridge Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T9)	51 63.9%	49 36.1%
Q3 - 11:15	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	51 60.4%	49 39.6%
Q3 - 11:15	DEN	MISS Martin 20' Pullup Jump Shot	51 61.4%	49 38.6%
Q3 - 11:38	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	51 63.8%	49 36.2%
Q3 - 11:39	POR	MISS Roy 24' 3PT Jump Shot	51 62.8%	49 37.2%
Q2 - 0:00.0	DEN		51 60.4%	49 39.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	51 63.8%	49 36.2%
Q2 - 0:00.0	DEN	MISS Billups 47' 3PT Jump Shot	51 61.4%	49 38.6%
Q2 - 0:02.0	POR	Roy 20' Step Back Jump Shot (25 PTS)	51 63.3%	49 36.7%
Q2 - 0:25.0	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	51 67.1%	47 32.9%
Q2 - 0:26.0	DEN	MISS Billups Driving Layup	51 67.8%	47 32.2%
Q2 - 0:34.0	POR	Pendergraph Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	51 69.3%	47 30.7%
Q2 - 0:34.0	POR	Pendergraph Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	51 70.1%	46 29.9%
Q2 - 0:34.0	POR	TRAIL BLAZERS Rebound	51 72.7%	45 27.3%
Q2 - 0:34.0	POR	MISS Roy 22' Jump Shot	51 74.1%	45 25.9%
Q2 - 0:50.0	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)	51 72.7%	45 27.3%
Q2 - 0:50.0	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)	50 72.3%	45 27.7%
Q2 - 1:05	POR	Webster Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T8)	49 69.2%	45 30.8%
Q2 - 1:10	DEN	Aldridge STEAL (1 STL)	49 67.0%	45 33.0%
Q2 - 1:11	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	49 69.1%	45 30.9%
Q2 - 1:14	POR	MISS Bayless Driving Layup	49 68.5%	45 31.5%
Q2 - 1:21	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	49 67.0%	45 33.0%
Q2 - 1:21	DEN	MISS Billups 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot	49 67.7%	45 32.3%
Q2 - 1:34	POR	Roy Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)	49 69.1%	45 30.9%
Q2 - 1:34	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)	49 69.6%	44 30.4%
Q2 - 1:53	DEN	Anthony 18' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	49 72.6%	43 27.4%
Q2 - 2:09	POR	Roy Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)	47 69.2%	43 30.8%
Q2 - 2:09	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)	47 69.7%	42 30.3%
Q2 - 2:15	POR	MISS Bayless Free Throw Flagrant 2 of 2	47 71.8%	41 28.2%
Q2 - 2:15	POR	Bayless Free Throw Flagrant 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	47 69.6%	41 30.4%
Q2 - 2:25	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	47 74.3%	40 25.7%
Q2 - 2:25	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	46 73.9%	40 26.1%
Q2 - 2:31	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	45 71.9%	40 28.1%
Q2 - 2:32	POR	MISS Aldridge 22' Jump Shot	45 71.1%	40 28.9%
Q2 - 2:52	POR	Roy REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	45 69.2%	40 30.8%
Q2 - 2:54	DEN	MISS Anthony 20' Jump Shot	45 70.0%	40 30.0%
Q2 - 3:22	POR	Roy 16' Pullup Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Miller 4 AST)	45 72.0%	40 28.0%
Q2 - 3:46	POR	Roy REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	45 74.0%	38 26.0%
Q2 - 3:47	DEN	MISS Smith 6' Running Jump Shot	45 74.8%	38 25.2%
Q2 - 4:09	POR	Roy Layup (17 PTS) (Bayless 3 AST)	45 76.1%	38 23.9%
Q2 - 4:32	POR	Miller Free Throw Technical (5 PTS)	45 78.1%	36 21.9%
Q2 - 4:34	DEN	Martin Dunk (6 PTS) (Nene 1 AST)	45 80.1%	35 19.9%
Q2 - 4:48	POR	Roy Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T7)	43 78.3%	35 21.7%
Q2 - 5:02	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	43 75.8%	35 24.2%
Q2 - 5:04	DEN	MISS Nene Free Throw 2 of 2	43 76.1%	35 23.9%
Q2 - 5:04	DEN	Nene Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	43 77.4%	35 22.6%
Q2 - 5:04	DEN	Billups Free Throw Technical (10 PTS)	42 75.7%	35 24.3%
Q2 - 5:14	POR	Howard Foul Turnover (P1.T6)	41 73.5%	35 26.5%
Q2 - 5:25	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	41 71.1%	35 28.9%
Q2 - 5:27	DEN	MISS Smith 26' 3PT Jump Shot	41 71.9%	35 28.1%
Q2 - 5:45	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	41 73.5%	35 26.5%
Q2 - 5:46	POR	MISS Howard 7' Turnaround Hook Shot	41 72.8%	35 27.2%
Q2 - 6:03	DEN	Smith 22' Pullup Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Billups 5 AST)	41 70.3%	35 29.7%
Q2 - 6:17	POR	Roy REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	39 68.3%	35 31.7%
Q2 - 6:17	POR	Roy Tip Shot (15 PTS)	39 68.3%	35 31.7%
Q2 - 6:18	POR	MISS Roy Driving Layup	39 72.3%	33 27.7%
Q2 - 6:22	DEN	Roy STEAL (1 STL)	39 70.4%	33 29.6%
Q2 - 6:23	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	39 73.1%	33 26.9%
Q2 - 6:25	POR	MISS Roy 25' 3PT Jump Shot	39 72.3%	33 27.7%
Q2 - 6:41	POR	Howard REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	39 70.4%	33 29.6%
Q2 - 6:43	POR	MISS Aldridge 17' Jump Shot	39 72.3%	33 27.7%
Q2 - 7:05	DEN	Lawson Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	39 70.4%	33 29.6%
Q2 - 7:05	DEN	Lawson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	38 69.9%	33 30.1%
Q2 - 7:15	POR	Roy Driving Layup (13 PTS) (Bayless 2 AST)	37 68.0%	33 32.0%
Q2 - 7:38	DEN	Billups Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	37 70.3%	31 29.7%
Q2 - 7:38	DEN	Billups Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	36 70.1%	31 29.9%
Q2 - 7:49	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	35 68.0%	31 32.0%
Q2 - 7:52	DEN	MISS Billups 16' Jump Shot	35 66.2%	31 33.8%
Q2 - 8:08	POR	Blake 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Roy 2 AST)	35 67.5%	31 32.5%
Q2 - 8:32	POR	Blake REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	35 72.1%	28 27.9%
Q2 - 8:33	DEN	MISS Lawson 3PT Jump Shot	35 72.8%	28 27.2%
Q2 - 8:57	POR	Roy Driving Layup (11 PTS)	35 74.3%	28 25.7%
Q2 - 9:12	POR	Pendergraph REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	35 75.7%	26 24.3%
Q2 - 9:13	POR	MISS Howard 18' Jump Shot	35 77.1%	26 22.9%
Q2 - 9:29	DEN	Anthony Driving Dunk (11 PTS)	35 75.7%	26 24.3%
Q2 - 9:31	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	33 73.8%	26 26.2%
Q2 - 9:33	POR	MISS Bayless Driving Layup	33 73.1%	26 26.9%
Q2 - 9:51	DEN	Smith Driving Reverse Layup (5 PTS)	33 71.6%	26 28.4%
Q2 - 9:58	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	31 69.5%	26 30.5%
Q2 - 9:58	POR	MISS Roy Driving Layup	31 68.7%	26 31.3%
Q2 - 10:12	POR	TRAIL BLAZERS Rebound	31 66.7%	26 33.3%
Q2 - 10:14	DEN	MISS Martin 21' Jump Shot	31 67.4%	26 32.6%
Q2 - 10:36	POR	Bayless Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	31 69.2%	26 30.8%
Q2 - 10:36	POR	Bayless Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	31 69.6%	25 30.4%
Q2 - 10:58	DEN	Andersen Foul Turnover (P1.T3)	31 71.2%	24 28.8%
Q2 - 11:04	POR	Aldridge Foul Turnover (P1.T5)	31 72.9%	24 27.1%
Q2 - 11:26	POR	TRAIL BLAZERS Rebound	31 70.8%	24 29.2%
Q2 - 11:28	DEN	MISS Anthony 18' Turnaround Jump Shot	31 71.5%	24 28.5%
Q2 - 11:45	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	31 73.0%	24 27.0%
Q2 - 11:46	POR	MISS Aldridge 20' Jump Shot	31 72.3%	24 27.7%
Q1 - 0:00.0	POR		31 70.8%	24 29.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	31 70.8%	24 29.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	DEN	Anthony Tip Shot (9 PTS)	31 70.8%	24 29.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	DEN	MISS Smith 11' Running Jump Shot	29 67.1%	24 32.9%
Q1 - 0:08.0	POR	Bayless Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)	29 67.8%	24 32.2%
Q1 - 0:21.0	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	29 66.1%	24 33.9%
Q1 - 0:21.0	DEN	Martin Putback Dunk (4 PTS)	29 66.1%	24 33.9%
Q1 - 0:22.0	DEN	MISS Anthony Driving Layup	27 62.2%	24 37.8%
Q1 - 0:36.0	POR	Aldridge Driving Layup (6 PTS)	27 63.4%	24 36.6%
Q1 - 0:46.0	POR	Pendergraph REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	27 66.1%	22 33.9%
Q1 - 0:47.0	DEN	MISS Lawson 6' Running Jump Shot	27 66.7%	22 33.3%
Q1 - 0:49.0	DEN	Lawson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	27 67.9%	22 32.1%
Q1 - 0:51.0	DEN	MISS Anthony 18' Jump Shot	27 66.7%	22 33.3%
Q1 - 1:01	POR	Blake Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	27 67.4%	22 32.6%
Q1 - 1:19	POR	Webster REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 66.0%	22 34.0%
Q1 - 1:20	DEN	MISS Smith 3PT Jump Shot	27 66.4%	22 33.6%
Q1 - 1:32	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	27 67.5%	22 32.5%
Q1 - 1:33	POR	MISS Pendergraph Layup	27 67.0%	22 33.0%
Q1 - 1:38	POR	Pendergraph REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	27 66.0%	22 34.0%
Q1 - 1:40	POR	MISS Bayless 21' Jump Shot	27 67.0%	22 33.0%
Q1 - 1:56	POR	Pendergraph REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	27 66.0%	22 34.0%
Q1 - 1:58	POR	MISS Bayless 3PT Jump Shot	27 67.0%	22 33.0%
Q1 - 2:24	DEN	Smith 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Billups 4 AST)	27 65.7%	22 34.3%
Q1 - 2:31	POR	Webster Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T2)	24 61.0%	22 39.0%
Q1 - 2:48	DEN	Anthony Layup (7 PTS)	24 59.2%	22 40.8%
Q1 - 2:49	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	22 56.5%	22 43.5%
Q1 - 2:50	DEN	MISS Anthony Layup	22 55.2%	22 44.8%
Q1 - 3:07	POR	Aldridge 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Bayless 1 AST)	22 56.9%	22 43.1%
Q1 - 3:28	DEN	Martin Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	22 59.1%	20 40.9%
Q1 - 3:31	POR	Webster Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	22 61.3%	20 38.7%
Q1 - 3:56	DEN	Afflalo 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Martin 2 AST)	22 59.1%	20 40.9%
Q1 - 4:07	DEN	Billups REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	20 56.7%	20 43.3%
Q1 - 4:08	POR	Howard REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	20 54.4%	20 45.6%
Q1 - 4:08	POR	MISS Howard Tip Shot	20 56.0%	20 44.0%
Q1 - 4:10	POR	MISS Miller 21' Jump Shot	20 56.0%	20 44.0%
Q1 - 4:31	DEN	Billups REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	20 54.4%	20 45.6%
Q1 - 4:31	DEN	Billups Putback Layup (7 PTS)	20 54.4%	20 45.6%
Q1 - 4:33	DEN	MISS Nene 15' Jump Shot	18 50.7%	20 49.3%
Q1 - 4:58	POR	Miller Driving Layup (4 PTS)	18 52.3%	20 47.7%
Q1 - 5:21	DEN	Martin 7' Driving Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Billups 3 AST)	18 54.1%	18 45.9%
Q1 - 5:37	POR	Roy 14' Step Back Jump Shot (9 PTS)	16 52.2%	18 47.8%
Q1 - 5:58	DEN	Billups Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	16 54.1%	16 45.9%
Q1 - 6:09	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	16 56.4%	16 43.6%
Q1 - 6:10	POR	MISS Roy 3PT Jump Shot	16 55.8%	16 44.2%
Q1 - 6:13	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	16 54.3%	16 45.7%
Q1 - 6:14	POR	MISS Miller 17' Jump Shot	16 55.8%	16 44.2%
Q1 - 6:21	POR	Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	16 54.3%	16 45.7%
Q1 - 6:22	DEN	MISS Martin 18' Jump Shot	16 54.9%	16 45.1%
Q1 - 6:31	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 56.4%	16 43.6%
Q1 - 6:32	POR	MISS Webster 3PT Jump Shot	16 55.8%	16 44.2%
Q1 - 6:59	DEN	Billups 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)	16 54.2%	16 45.8%
Q1 - 7:11	POR	Roy Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	13 50.3%	16 49.7%
Q1 - 7:11	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	13 50.6%	15 49.4%
Q1 - 7:30	DEN	Nene Layup (4 PTS) (Billups 2 AST)	13 52.3%	14 47.7%
Q1 - 7:38	POR	Howard 9' Turnaround Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Miller 3 AST)	11 50.3%	14 49.7%
Q1 - 7:56	DEN	Anthony 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Martin 1 AST)	11 52.3%	12 47.7%
Q1 - 7:59	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	8 48.2%	12 51.8%
Q1 - 8:01	DEN	MISS Afflalo 3PT Jump Shot	8 47.0%	12 53.0%
Q1 - 8:17	POR	Miller 12' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	8 48.4%	12 51.6%
Q1 - 8:46	DEN	Billups 16' Fadeaway Jumper (2 PTS)	8 50.4%	10 49.6%
Q1 - 8:58	POR	Roy 20' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)	6 48.3%	10 51.7%
Q1 - 9:21	DEN	Anthony 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Billups 1 AST)	6 51.0%	8 49.0%
Q1 - 9:43	POR	Roy 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Aldridge 1 AST)	4 48.9%	8 51.1%
Q1 - 9:58	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 53.0%	5 47.0%
Q1 - 9:59	DEN	MISS Martin Driving Finger Roll Layup	4 53.6%	5 46.4%
Q1 - 10:13	POR	Aldridge 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Roy 1 AST)	4 55.0%	5 45.0%
Q1 - 10:29	POR	Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	4 56.7%	3 43.3%
Q1 - 10:29	DEN	MISS Afflalo 3PT Jump Shot	4 57.3%	3 42.7%
Q1 - 10:50	POR	Webster 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)	4 58.7%	3 41.3%
Q1 - 11:13	DEN	Afflalo 15' Pullup Jump Shot (2 PTS)	4 61.6%	0 38.4%
Q1 - 11:21	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 59.9%	0 40.1%
Q1 - 11:23	POR	MISS Webster 24' 3PT Jump Shot	2 59.4%	0 40.6%
Q1 - 11:29	POR	Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	2 58.3%	0 41.7%
Q1 - 11:29	POR	MISS Aldridge 18' Fadeaway Jumper	2 59.4%	0 40.6%
Q1 - 11:45	DEN	Nene Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	2 58.3%	0 41.7%
Q1 - 11:45	DEN	Nene Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	1 57.9%	0 42.1%
Q1 - 12:00	POR	Jump Ball Aldridge vs. Nene: Tip to Billups	0 56.6%	0 43.4%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.03 51.6%

POR

1.24 62.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

59%

POR

65%

Midrange

DEN

40%

POR

46%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

7.5

33%

50%

POR

16.5

52%

79%

Free Throws

DEN

81%

POR

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Anthony	32	57%	16.0 / 28
J. Smith	20	43%	10.0 / 23
K. Martin	12	60%	6.0 / 10
C. Billups	10	63%	5.0 / 8
Nene	9	50%	4.5 / 9
A. Afflalo	6	60%	3.0 / 5
A. Carter	5	63%	2.5 / 4
T. Lawson	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Trail Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Roy	41	71%	20.5 / 29
S. Blake	17	106%	8.5 / 8
A. Miller	14	64%	7.0 / 11
M. Webster	11	79%	5.5 / 7
L. Aldridge	10	50%	5.0 / 10
J. Bayless	8	33%	4.0 / 12
J. Howard	4	40%	2.0 / 5
J. Ayres	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+17

-9

POR

+12

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.03 51.6%

POR

1.24 62.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	111.9 111.0	DEN 112.9 POR 128.9 +16.0
Pace	94.7 87.7	DEN 90.4 +12.1 POR 78.3
Avg. Poss. Time	14.7 17.0	DEN 15.9 +2.5 POR 18.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	50.9% 49.9%	DEN 48.2% POR 59.9% +11.7%
TO %	14.2% 13.0%	DEN 9.0% +2.5% POR 11.5%
ORB %	26.1% 28.3%	DEN 30.0% POR 30.3% +0.3%
FTrt	37.6 31.5	DEN 25.6 POR 26.3 +0.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	55.0% 56.3%	DEN 37.8% POR 65.0% +27.2%
STL %	8.7% 7.2%	DEN 5.9% +2.3% POR 3.6%
BLK %	7.9% 7.1%	DEN 10.9% +6.4% POR 4.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.38 and 2.38.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	54.9% 53.0%	DEN 51.6% POR 62.2% +10.6%
Rim FG%	61.0% 60.6%	DEN 59.3% POR 65.0% +5.7%
Mid FG%	39.6% 41.4%	DEN 40.0% POR 45.7% +5.7%
3P %	35.9% 35.4%	DEN 33.3% POR 52.4% +19.1%
FT %	77.2% 79.0%	DEN 81.0% +1.0% POR 80.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	37.5% 31.1%	DEN 32.9% +6.6% POR 26.3%
Mid Att. %	39.8% 47.4%	DEN 48.8% POR 46.1% +2.7%
3P Att. %	22.7% 21.5%	DEN 18.3% POR 27.6% +9.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	POR
Possessions	85	83
Possession Minutes	22.6	25.4
Points	96	107
Rebounds	35	38
Assists	14	26
Steals	5	3
Blocks	6	3
Turnovers (Team)	9 (0)	11 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (5)	10 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	23 (3)	28 (4)
Field Goals	37-82	40-76
At-the-Rim FG	16-27	13-20
Midrange FG	16-40	16-35
2-Point FG	32-67	29-55
3-Point FG	5-15	11-21
Free Throws	17-21	16-20
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.

6 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kenyon Martin F · 6'9" 225 · 32	40.3	12	60%	14	2	2	0	2	2	5	9	0-0	-	6-10	60%	0-0	-
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 26	39.8	32	57%	9	4	0	0	1	4	4	5	9-10	90%	10-21	48%	1-2	50%
Nene C · 6'11" 250 · 27	36.3	9	50%	3	1	1	1	1	5	0	3	3-5	60%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 33	19.9	10	63%	2	5	0	0	1	0	1	1	3-3	100%	2-4	50%	1-3	33%
Arron Afflalo G · 6'5" 210 · 24	18.9	6	60%	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0-1	0%	3-3	100%	0-2	0%
JR Smith G-F · 6'6" 225 · 24	29.1	20	43%	3	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	0-0	-	7-17	41%	2-6	33%
Chris Andersen F-C · 6'10" 245 · 31	19.4	0	0%	1	0	2	5	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ty Lawson G · 5'11" 195 · 22	18.4	2	25%	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Anthony Carter G · 6'1" 190 · 35	17.9	5	63%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-1	100%
Joey Graham F · 6'7" 230 · 28
Renaldo Balkman F · 6'8" 225 · 25
Malik Allen F · 6'10" 255 · 31
Johan Petro #27 · C · 7'0" 247 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	96	52%	35	14	5	6	9	0	12	23	17-21	81%	32-67	48%	5-15	33%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

6 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kenyon Martin F · 6'9" 225 · 32	40.3	12	60%	14	2	2	0	2	2	5	9	0-0	-	6-10	60%	0-0	-
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 26	39.8	32	57%	9	4	0	0	1	4	4	5	9-10	90%	10-21	48%	1-2	50%
Nene C · 6'11" 250 · 27	36.3	9	50%	3	1	1	1	1	5	0	3	3-5	60%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 33	19.9	10	63%	2	5	0	0	1	0	1	1	3-3	100%	2-4	50%	1-3	33%
Arron Afflalo G · 6'5" 210 · 24	18.9	6	60%	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0-1	0%	3-3	100%	0-2	0%
JR Smith G-F · 6'6" 225 · 24	29.1	20	43%	3	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	0-0	-	7-17	41%	2-6	33%
Chris Andersen F-C · 6'10" 245 · 31	19.4	0	0%	1	0	2	5	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ty Lawson G · 5'11" 195 · 22	18.4	2	25%	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Anthony Carter G · 6'1" 190 · 35	17.9	5	63%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-1	100%
Joey Graham F · 6'7" 230 · 28
Renaldo Balkman F · 6'8" 225 · 25
Malik Allen F · 6'10" 255 · 31
Johan Petro #27 · C · 7'0" 247 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	96	52%	35	14	5	6	9	0	12	23	17-21	81%	32-67	48%	5-15	33%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

13 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
LaMarcus Aldridge F · 6'11" 260 · 24	45.2	10	50%	13	3	1	1	2	2	1	12	0-0	-	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Brandon Roy G · 6'6" 211 · 25	43.4	41	71%	6	4	1	0	2	3	2	4	6-6	100%	13-20	65%	3-6	50%
Juwan Howard C · 6'9" 250 · 37	30.5	4	40%	8	3	0	1	1	5	4	4	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Andre Miller G · 6'3" 200 · 34	25.6	14	64%	1	8	1	0	1	2	0	1	4-5	80%	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Martell Webster F · 6'7" 230 · 23	24.6	11	79%	2	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-5	60%
Jerryd Bayless G · 6'3" 200 · 21	29.8	8	33%	1	7	0	0	1	3	0	1	4-7	57%	2-7	29%	0-3	0%
Steve Blake G · 6'3" 172 · 30	21.0	17	106%	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	5-7	71%
Jeff Ayres F-C · 6'9" 250 · 23	20.0	2	50%	5	0	0	0	0	2	3	2	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Joel Przybilla C · 7'1" 245 · 30
Rudy Fernandez · 6'6" 185 · 25
Dante Cunningham F · 6'8" 230 · 23
Anthony Tolliver F · 6'8" 240 · 25
Travis Outlaw #25 · F · 6'9" 207 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Patty Mills #8 · G · 6'0" 185 · 21	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Nicolas Batum #88 · G-F · 6'8" 230 · 21	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Greg Oden #52 · C · 7'0" 273 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	62%	38	26	3	3	11	0	10	28	16-20	80%	29-55	53%	11-21	52%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).

indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE