Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 2, 2010

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	19	Bobcats	43%	90	107
	15	Heat	57%	92	97

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
CHA	121.6	88	87.5
MIA	109.0	89	89.6

Scoring Opportunities

CHA

-11

MIA

+13

-15

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CHA

1.29 64.5%

MIA

1.10 55.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	CHA	MIA
Q4 - 0:00.0	MIA		107 100%	97 0%
Q4 - 0:24.0	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	107 99.9%	97 0.1%
Q4 - 0:25.0	CHA	MISS Felton 22' Jump Shot	107 99.9%	97 0.1%
Q4 - 0:45.0	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	107 99.9%	97 0.1%
Q4 - 0:46.0	MIA	MISS Cook 25' 3PT Jump Shot	107 99.9%	97 0.1%
Q4 - 0:55.0	CHA	Felton Driving Layup (9 PTS)	107 99.8%	97 0.2%
Q4 - 1:13	CHA	Augustin REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	105 99.4%	97 0.6%
Q4 - 1:14	MIA	MISS Wade 26' 3PT Jump Shot	105 99.2%	97 0.8%
Q4 - 1:18	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:5 Def:5)	105 98.7%	97 1.3%
Q4 - 1:19	MIA	MISS Richardson Reverse Layup	105 99.1%	97 0.9%
Q4 - 1:31	CHA	Felton 20' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	105 98.2%	97 1.8%
Q4 - 1:45	MIA	Wade Free Throw 3 of 3 (29 PTS)	103 96.3%	97 3.7%
Q4 - 1:45	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 3 (28 PTS)	103 96.6%	96 3.4%
Q4 - 1:45	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 3 (27 PTS)	103 97.0%	95 3.0%
Q4 - 1:50	CHA	Jackson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (35 PTS) (Felton 6 AST)	103 98.4%	94 1.6%
Q4 - 2:11	MIA	Wade Driving Layup (26 PTS)	100 96.5%	94 3.5%
Q4 - 2:23	CHA	Augustin Layup (13 PTS) (Wallace 3 AST)	100 97.6%	92 2.4%
Q4 - 2:38	CHA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)	98 96.7%	92 3.3%
Q4 - 2:39	MIA	MISS Wade 25' 3PT Jump Shot	98 96.0%	92 4.0%
Q4 - 2:53	CHA	Jackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (32 PTS)	98 91.9%	92 8.1%
Q4 - 2:53	CHA	Jackson Free Throw 1 of 2 (31 PTS)	97 91.3%	92 8.7%
Q4 - 3:09	MIA	Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Arroyo 9 AST)	96 89.2%	92 10.8%
Q4 - 3:21	CHA	Diaw Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	96 94.9%	89 5.1%
Q4 - 3:21	CHA	Diaw Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	95 94.3%	89 5.7%
Q4 - 3:35	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	94 88.4%	89 11.6%
Q4 - 3:36	MIA	MISS Richardson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	94 87.1%	89 12.9%
Q4 - 3:54	CHA	Diaw Foul Turnover (P4.T12)	94 84.1%	89 15.9%
Q4 - 4:03	CHA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)	94 89.0%	89 11.0%
Q4 - 4:04	MIA	MISS Haslem 18' Jump Shot	94 87.7%	89 12.3%
Q4 - 4:22	CHA	Augustin 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Diaw 5 AST)	94 84.4%	89 15.6%
Q4 - 4:38	MIA	Haslem Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	91 72.1%	89 27.9%
Q4 - 4:38	MIA	Haslem Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	91 73.7%	88 26.3%
Q4 - 4:52	CHA	Jackson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (30 PTS) (Felton 5 AST)	91 78.8%	87 21.2%
Q4 - 5:12	MIA	Haslem 18' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Arroyo 8 AST)	88 61.2%	87 38.8%
Q4 - 5:28	CHA	Jackson Driving Layup (27 PTS)	88 68.6%	85 31.4%
Q4 - 5:40	CHA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	86 61.3%	85 38.7%
Q4 - 5:41	MIA	MISS Beasley 19' Jump Shot	86 58.7%	85 41.3%
Q4 - 5:53	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)	86 52.6%	85 47.4%
Q4 - 5:54	CHA	MISS Jackson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	86 55.3%	85 44.7%
Q4 - 6:16	MIA	Beasley 10' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	86 59.7%	85 40.3%
Q4 - 6:39	CHA	Augustin Driving Layup (8 PTS)	86 66.4%	83 33.6%
Q4 - 6:44	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	84 59.8%	83 40.2%
Q4 - 6:45	MIA	MISS Richardson Driving Layup	84 57.4%	83 42.6%
Q4 - 7:03	CHA	Jackson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Wallace 2 AST)	84 51.0%	83 49.0%
Q4 - 7:33	MIA	Wade 25' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Chalmers 3 AST)	81 38.0%	83 62.0%
Q4 - 7:38	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	81 51.1%	80 48.9%
Q4 - 7:39	MIA	MISS Richardson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	81 56.3%	80 43.7%
Q4 - 8:00	CHA	Augustin 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Diaw 4 AST)	81 51.1%	80 48.9%
Q4 - 8:21	MIA	Haslem 18' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Chalmers 2 AST)	78 38.3%	80 61.7%
Q4 - 8:35	CHA	Wallace Layup (15 PTS) (Murray 2 AST)	78 44.7%	78 55.3%
Q4 - 8:57	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)	76 38.3%	78 61.7%
Q4 - 8:58	MIA	MISS Richardson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	76 36.5%	78 63.5%
Q4 - 9:05	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	76 33.5%	78 66.5%
Q4 - 9:06	CHA	MISS Jackson 17' Jump Shot	76 35.1%	78 64.9%
Q4 - 9:25	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)	76 38.9%	78 61.1%
Q4 - 9:25	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)	76 40.0%	77 60.0%
Q4 - 9:33	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)	76 44.9%	76 55.1%
Q4 - 9:34	CHA	MISS Diaw 9' Hook Shot	76 46.6%	76 53.4%
Q4 - 9:56	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	76 50.7%	76 49.3%
Q4 - 9:56	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	76 51.9%	75 48.1%
Q4 - 10:12	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)	76 55.7%	74 44.3%
Q4 - 10:13	CHA	MISS Wallace 19' Jump Shot	76 57.4%	74 42.6%
Q4 - 10:32	MIA	Chalmers Driving Layup (4 PTS)	76 61.3%	74 38.7%
Q4 - 10:36	MIA	HEAT Rebound	76 66.5%	72 33.5%
Q4 - 10:37	MIA	MISS Wade 9' Running Jump Shot	76 69.9%	72 30.1%
Q4 - 10:57	CHA	Augustin 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Murray 1 AST)	76 66.5%	72 33.5%
Q4 - 11:12	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	73 55.0%	72 45.0%
Q4 - 11:13	MIA	MISS Chalmers 15' Jump Shot	73 53.5%	72 46.5%
Q4 - 11:39	MIA	HEAT Rebound	73 49.9%	72 50.1%
Q4 - 11:40	CHA	Wade BLOCK (1 BLK)	73 51.5%	72 48.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MIA		73 55.1%	72 44.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MIA	HEAT Rebound	73 49.9%	72 50.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MIA	MISS Wade 59' 3PT Jump Shot	73 53.5%	72 46.5%
Q3 - 0:01.0	CHA	Diaw Driving Layup (7 PTS)	73 49.7%	72 50.3%
Q3 - 0:11.0	MIA	Haslem 14' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Wade 11 AST)	71 44.2%	72 55.8%
Q3 - 0:32.0	CHA	Diaw 7' Jump Hook Shot (5 PTS)	71 49.7%	70 50.3%
Q3 - 0:48.0	MIA	Haslem 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Arroyo 7 AST)	69 44.2%	70 55.8%
Q3 - 1:05	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)	69 49.2%	68 50.8%
Q3 - 1:06	MIA	MISS Wade 20' Jump Shot	69 52.3%	68 47.7%
Q3 - 1:22	CHA	Diop 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T11)	69 49.2%	68 50.8%
Q3 - 1:38	MIA	Anthony 8' Jump Bank Shot (2 PTS)	69 53.8%	68 46.2%
Q3 - 1:39	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	69 59.0%	66 41.0%
Q3 - 1:40	MIA	MISS Arroyo 15' Jump Shot	69 62.0%	66 38.0%
Q3 - 2:07	CHA	Wallace Discontinue Dribble Turnover (P2.T10)	69 57.7%	66 42.3%
Q3 - 2:13	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	69 62.2%	66 37.8%
Q3 - 2:14	MIA	MISS Wade Reverse Layup	69 60.9%	66 39.1%
Q3 - 2:32	CHA	Wallace Alley Oop Dunk (13 PTS) (Felton 4 AST)	69 57.8%	66 42.2%
Q3 - 2:48	MIA	Richardson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Wade 10 AST)	67 53.1%	66 46.9%
Q3 - 3:10	CHA	Jackson Reverse Layup (22 PTS) (Diaw 3 AST)	67 61.5%	63 38.5%
Q3 - 3:25	MIA	Wade Bad Pass Turnover (P6.T15)	65 57.4%	63 42.6%
Q3 - 3:43	CHA	Jackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)	65 52.7%	63 47.3%
Q3 - 3:43	CHA	Jackson Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)	64 51.9%	63 48.1%
Q3 - 3:57	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	63 48.4%	63 51.6%
Q3 - 3:58	MIA	MISS Arroyo 14' Jump Shot	63 47.0%	63 53.0%
Q3 - 4:14	CHA	Diaw Foul Turnover (P3.T9)	63 43.4%	63 56.6%
Q3 - 4:29	MIA	O'Neal Foul Turnover (P1.T14)	63 48.4%	63 51.6%
Q3 - 4:39	CHA	Jackson 11' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Diaw 2 AST)	63 43.4%	63 56.6%
Q3 - 4:58	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	61 39.8%	63 60.2%
Q3 - 4:59	CHA	MISS Felton 20' Jump Shot	61 36.5%	63 63.5%
Q3 - 5:09	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	61 39.4%	63 60.6%
Q3 - 5:10	CHA	MISS Wallace 3PT Jump Shot	61 36.3%	63 63.7%
Q3 - 5:33	MIA	Richardson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Wade 9 AST)	61 39.4%	63 60.6%
Q3 - 5:57	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	61 47.2%	60 52.8%
Q3 - 5:57	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	60 46.3%	60 53.7%
Q3 - 6:13	CHA	Felton REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	59 43.4%	60 56.6%
Q3 - 6:14	MIA	MISS Wade 24' Jump Shot	59 42.1%	60 57.9%
Q3 - 6:27	CHA	Diaw Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	59 39.0%	60 61.0%
Q3 - 6:27	CHA	MISS Diaw Free Throw 1 of 2	58 38.1%	60 61.9%
Q3 - 6:51	MIA	Arroyo 16' Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Wade 8 AST)	58 39.5%	60 60.5%
Q3 - 6:59	MIA	O'Neal REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	58 42.9%	58 57.1%
Q3 - 7:00	MIA	MISS Wade 8' Running Jump Shot	58 46.0%	58 54.0%
Q3 - 7:17	MIA	O'Neal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	58 42.7%	58 57.3%
Q3 - 7:18	CHA	MISS Wallace Layup	58 43.9%	58 56.1%
Q3 - 7:41	MIA	Wade 14' Jump Bank Shot (14 PTS) (Arroyo 6 AST)	58 46.8%	58 53.2%
Q3 - 8:06	MIA	Arroyo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	58 50.0%	56 50.0%
Q3 - 8:07	CHA	MISS Wallace 18' Jump Shot	58 51.3%	56 48.7%
Q3 - 8:20	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	58 54.1%	56 45.9%
Q3 - 8:21	MIA	MISS O'Neal 15' Turnaround Jump Shot	58 52.8%	56 47.2%
Q3 - 8:43	CHA	Felton Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	58 50.0%	56 50.0%
Q3 - 8:43	CHA	Felton Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	57 49.4%	56 50.6%
Q3 - 8:45	MIA	Beasley Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T13)	56 46.5%	56 53.5%
Q3 - 8:46	CHA	Mohammed 14' Fadeaway Jumper (10 PTS)	56 42.5%	56 57.5%
Q3 - 9:08	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	54 39.1%	56 60.9%
Q3 - 9:08	MIA	MISS O'Neal Layup	54 38.0%	56 62.0%
Q3 - 9:18	CHA	Mohammed Layup (8 PTS) (Diaw 1 AST)	54 35.6%	56 64.4%
Q3 - 9:32	MIA	Beasley 15' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Wade 7 AST)	52 32.3%	56 67.7%
Q3 - 9:41	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	52 35.5%	54 64.5%
Q3 - 9:43	CHA	MISS Jackson 8' Running Jump Shot	52 36.6%	54 63.4%
Q3 - 10:02	MIA	Richardson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Wade 6 AST)	52 39.1%	54 60.9%
Q3 - 10:20	MIA	Richardson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	52 46.1%	51 53.9%
Q3 - 10:20	CHA	MISS Felton 25' 3PT Jump Shot	52 47.2%	51 52.8%
Q3 - 10:40	MIA	Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS)	52 49.7%	51 50.3%
Q3 - 10:47	CHA	Mohammed 8' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	52 56.8%	48 43.2%
Q3 - 11:12	MIA	Beasley 18' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Wade 5 AST)	50 53.0%	48 47.0%
Q3 - 11:24	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	50 56.3%	46 43.7%
Q3 - 11:25	CHA	MISS Diaw 20' Jump Shot	50 57.4%	46 42.6%
Q3 - 11:40	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	50 59.9%	46 40.1%
Q3 - 11:41	MIA	MISS O'Neal 17' Jump Shot	50 58.8%	46 41.2%
Q3 - 12:00	CHA	Felton Free Throw Technical (3 PTS)	50 56.3%	46 43.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MIA		49 52.9%	46 47.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	49 52.9%	46 47.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0	CHA	MISS Graham 8' Jump Shot	49 54.0%	46 46.0%
Q2 - 0:23.0	MIA	O'Neal Layup (6 PTS) (Arroyo 5 AST)	49 55.7%	46 44.3%
Q2 - 0:35.0	CHA	Felton 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	49 59.7%	44 40.3%
Q2 - 0:42.0	MIA	Richardson Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T12)	47 55.7%	44 44.3%
Q2 - 0:50.0	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	47 53.1%	44 46.9%
Q2 - 0:50.0	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	46 52.3%	44 47.7%
Q2 - 1:06	MIA	Wade Foul Turnover (P5.T11)	45 48.8%	44 51.2%
Q2 - 1:21	CHA	Jackson Free Throw 1 of 1 (16 PTS)	45 46.4%	44 53.6%
Q2 - 1:40	MIA	Wade Alley Oop Dunk (9 PTS) (Arroyo 4 AST)	42 39.1%	44 60.9%
Q2 - 1:56	MIA	Richardson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	42 43.2%	42 56.8%
Q2 - 1:57	CHA	MISS Murray 9' Jump Shot	42 43.9%	42 56.1%
Q2 - 2:19	MIA	Richardson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Wade 4 AST)	42 45.8%	42 54.2%
Q2 - 2:33	MIA	Arroyo Free Throw Technical (1 PTS)	42 52.1%	39 47.9%
Q2 - 2:46	CHA	Murray 19' Jump Shot (9 PTS)	42 55.3%	38 44.7%
Q2 - 3:04	MIA	Richardson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T10)	40 52.3%	38 47.7%
Q2 - 3:29	CHA	Bobcats Turnover: Shot Clock (T#8)	40 48.5%	38 51.5%
Q2 - 3:51	CHA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	40 52.3%	38 47.7%
Q2 - 3:52	MIA	MISS O'Neal 14' Jump Shot	40 51.1%	38 48.9%
Q2 - 4:14	CHA	Murray Layup (7 PTS) (Wallace 1 AST)	40 48.3%	38 51.7%
Q2 - 4:25	CHA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	38 45.6%	38 54.4%
Q2 - 4:26	MIA	MISS Haslem 18' Jump Shot	38 44.5%	38 55.5%
Q2 - 4:35	MIA	Arroyo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	38 42.3%	38 57.7%
Q2 - 4:36	CHA	MISS Murray 18' Jump Shot	38 43.3%	38 56.7%
Q2 - 4:43	MIA	Wade Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T9)	38 45.6%	38 54.4%
Q2 - 4:58	CHA	Jackson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Augustin 1 AST)	38 42.3%	38 57.7%
Q2 - 5:22	MIA	Haslem 16' Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Wade 3 AST)	35 36.8%	38 63.2%
Q2 - 5:45	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	35 39.6%	36 60.4%
Q2 - 5:45	CHA	MISS Wallace Free Throw 1 of 2	34 39.0%	36 61.0%
Q2 - 5:52	CHA	Murray REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	34 39.6%	36 60.4%
Q2 - 5:53	MIA	MISS Richardson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	34 38.7%	36 61.3%
Q2 - 6:08	CHA	Jackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	34 36.6%	36 63.4%
Q2 - 6:08	CHA	Jackson Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	33 36.2%	36 63.8%
Q2 - 6:08	CHA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	32 34.4%	36 65.6%
Q2 - 6:09	MIA	MISS Haslem Tip Shot	32 33.5%	36 66.5%
Q2 - 6:10	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	32 31.4%	36 68.6%
Q2 - 6:10	MIA	MISS Wade 13' Jump Shot	32 33.5%	36 66.5%
Q2 - 6:21	MIA	Richardson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	32 31.4%	36 68.6%
Q2 - 6:22	CHA	MISS Jackson 14' Jump Shot	32 32.3%	36 67.7%
Q2 - 6:34	CHA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	32 34.4%	36 65.6%
Q2 - 6:35	MIA	MISS Arroyo 12' Jump Shot	32 33.5%	36 66.5%
Q2 - 6:54	CHA	Jackson 6' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	32 31.4%	36 68.6%
Q2 - 7:09	MIA	Chalmers Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)	30 29.5%	36 70.5%
Q2 - 7:13	MIA	Richardson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	30 27.1%	36 72.9%
Q2 - 7:14	CHA	Haslem BLOCK (1 BLK)	30 27.8%	36 72.2%
Q2 - 7:31	MIA	Richardson Traveling Turnover (P1.T7)	30 29.5%	36 70.5%
Q2 - 7:42	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	30 27.1%	36 72.9%
Q2 - 7:43	CHA	MISS Augustin 26' 3PT Jump Shot	30 27.8%	36 72.2%
Q2 - 8:01	CHA	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	30 29.8%	36 70.2%
Q2 - 8:02	MIA	MISS Cook 25' 3PT Jump Shot	30 29.1%	36 70.9%
Q2 - 8:26	CHA	Chalmers STEAL (1 STL)	30 27.5%	36 72.5%
Q2 - 8:30	MIA	Chalmers Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T6)	30 29.7%	36 70.3%
Q2 - 8:43	CHA	Jackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	30 27.5%	36 72.5%
Q2 - 8:43	CHA	Jackson Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	29 27.1%	36 72.9%
Q2 - 9:00	MIA	Beasley Foul Turnover (P1.T5)	28 25.4%	36 74.6%
Q2 - 9:12	CHA	Jackson Layup (4 PTS)	28 23.5%	36 76.5%
Q2 - 9:31	MIA	Chalmers 8' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	26 21.7%	36 78.3%
Q2 - 9:48	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 1 (6 PTS)	26 23.5%	34 76.5%
Q2 - 9:49	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	23 20.0%	34 80.0%
Q2 - 9:50	MIA	MISS Beasley 19' Jump Shot	23 19.4%	34 80.6%
Q2 - 10:05	CHA	Murray Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	23 18.6%	34 81.4%
Q2 - 10:05	CHA	Murray Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	22 18.2%	34 81.8%
Q2 - 10:08	CHA	Brown REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	21 17.2%	34 82.8%
Q2 - 10:09	MIA	MISS Wright Dunk	21 16.7%	34 83.3%
Q2 - 10:20	MIA	Wright REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	21 15.6%	34 84.4%
Q2 - 10:21	CHA	MISS Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2	21 15.8%	34 84.2%
Q2 - 10:21	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	21 16.7%	34 83.3%
Q2 - 10:40	MIA	Cook 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST)	20 15.7%	34 84.3%
Q2 - 10:48	CHA	Cook STEAL (1 STL)	20 18.5%	31 81.5%
Q2 - 10:55	MIA	Beasley Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	20 20.3%	31 79.7%
Q2 - 10:55	MIA	MISS Beasley Free Throw 1 of 2	20 20.6%	30 79.4%
Q2 - 10:55	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	20 20.2%	30 79.8%
Q2 - 10:56	MIA	MISS Beasley Layup	20 21.5%	30 78.5%
Q2 - 11:03	CHA	Murray 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Jackson 2 AST)	20 20.6%	30 79.4%
Q2 - 11:21	CHA	Brown REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	17 17.5%	30 82.5%
Q2 - 11:24	MIA	MISS Beasley 8' Running Jump Shot	17 17.1%	30 82.9%
Q2 - 11:36	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	17 16.0%	30 84.0%
Q2 - 11:37	MIA	MISS Cook 25' 3PT Jump Shot	17 17.1%	30 82.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MIA		17 16.0%	30 84.0%
Q1 - 0:01.0	CHA	Brown 18' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Felton 3 AST)	17 16.7%	30 83.3%
Q1 - 0:14.0	MIA	Haslem Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	15 15.1%	30 84.9%
Q1 - 0:14.0	MIA	MISS Haslem Free Throw 1 of 2	15 15.4%	29 84.6%
Q1 - 0:27.0	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 15.4%	29 84.6%
Q1 - 0:28.0	CHA	MISS Wallace 19' Jump Shot	15 15.7%	29 84.3%
Q1 - 0:42.0	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	15 16.4%	29 83.6%
Q1 - 0:43.0	MIA	MISS Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot	15 16.1%	29 83.9%
Q1 - 1:09	CHA	Brown 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Felton 2 AST)	15 16.0%	29 84.0%
Q1 - 1:14	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	12 13.3%	29 86.7%
Q1 - 1:15	CHA	O'Neal BLOCK (4 BLK)	12 12.8%	29 87.2%
Q1 - 1:19	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	12 13.3%	29 86.7%
Q1 - 1:20	MIA	MISS Wright Driving Layup	12 13.0%	29 87.0%
Q1 - 1:44	CHA	Brown 7' Jump Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Felton 1 AST)	12 12.5%	29 87.5%
Q1 - 2:04	MIA	Wright Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	10 11.7%	29 88.3%
Q1 - 2:08	CHA	Wade STEAL (2 STL)	10 14.0%	26 86.0%
Q1 - 2:24	MIA	Jump Ball Arroyo vs. Jackson: Tip to Wallace	10 14.9%	26 85.1%
Q1 - 2:24	MIA	Arroyo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	10 14.0%	26 86.0%
Q1 - 2:25	MIA	MISS O'Neal 15' Jump Shot	10 14.6%	26 85.4%
Q1 - 2:45	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	10 14.0%	26 86.0%
Q1 - 2:46	MIA	MISS Richardson 3PT Jump Shot	10 14.6%	26 85.4%
Q1 - 2:59	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	10 14.0%	26 86.0%
Q1 - 3:00	CHA	O'Neal BLOCK (3 BLK)	10 14.2%	26 85.8%
Q1 - 3:14	MIA	Richardson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Arroyo 3 AST)	10 15.3%	26 84.7%
Q1 - 3:25	MIA	Richardson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	10 17.8%	23 82.2%
Q1 - 3:26	CHA	MISS Jackson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	10 18.2%	23 81.8%
Q1 - 3:30	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	10 19.2%	23 80.8%
Q1 - 3:32	CHA	MISS Wallace 24' 3PT Jump Shot	10 18.2%	23 81.8%
Q1 - 3:52	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	10 19.2%	23 80.8%
Q1 - 3:53	MIA	MISS O'Neal 14' Jump Shot	10 18.8%	23 81.2%
Q1 - 4:08	CHA	Mohammed Foul Turnover (P1.T4)	10 18.2%	23 81.8%
Q1 - 4:15	CHA	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	10 19.6%	23 80.4%
Q1 - 4:17	MIA	MISS Beasley 20' Jump Shot	10 19.2%	23 80.8%
Q1 - 4:26	CHA	Richardson STEAL (1 STL)	10 18.2%	23 81.8%
Q1 - 4:36	CHA	Felton REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	10 19.6%	23 80.4%
Q1 - 4:37	CHA	MISS Jackson 26' 3PT Jump Shot	10 18.6%	23 81.4%
Q1 - 4:55	MIA	Beasley Putback Dunk (7 PTS)	10 19.6%	23 80.4%
Q1 - 4:56	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	10 21.0%	21 79.0%
Q1 - 4:57	MIA	MISS Richardson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	10 22.1%	21 77.9%
Q1 - 5:03	MIA	O'Neal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	10 21.4%	21 78.6%
Q1 - 5:04	CHA	O'Neal BLOCK (2 BLK)	10 21.9%	21 78.1%
Q1 - 5:33	MIA	Richardson Driving Dunk (5 PTS)	10 23.1%	21 76.9%
Q1 - 5:48	MIA	O'Neal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	10 24.5%	19 75.5%
Q1 - 5:49	CHA	O'Neal BLOCK (1 BLK)	10 25.0%	19 75.0%
Q1 - 5:58	MIA	Wade Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T3)	10 26.3%	19 73.7%
Q1 - 6:05	CHA	Wade STEAL (1 STL)	10 24.7%	19 75.3%
Q1 - 6:20	MIA	Wade 14' Floating Jump Shot (7 PTS)	10 26.4%	19 73.6%
Q1 - 6:43	CHA	Mohammed Layup (4 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)	10 28.0%	17 72.0%
Q1 - 6:57	MIA	Wade Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T2)	8 26.4%	17 73.6%
Q1 - 7:16	CHA	Diaw 8' Jump Hook Shot (2 PTS)	8 24.9%	17 75.1%
Q1 - 7:35	MIA	Wade 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)	6 23.4%	17 76.6%
Q1 - 8:00	CHA	Mohammed Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	6 26.4%	14 73.6%
Q1 - 8:00	CHA	Mohammed Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	5 25.9%	14 74.1%
Q1 - 8:08	CHA	Felton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 25.0%	14 75.0%
Q1 - 8:09	MIA	MISS O'Neal 15' Jump Shot	4 24.5%	14 75.5%
Q1 - 8:21	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	4 23.5%	14 76.5%
Q1 - 8:22	CHA	MISS Diaw 12' Jump Shot	4 23.9%	14 76.1%
Q1 - 8:41	MIA	Richardson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Arroyo 2 AST)	4 25.0%	14 75.0%
Q1 - 8:47	MIA	O'Neal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 28.2%	11 71.8%
Q1 - 8:48	CHA	MISS Wallace Driving Layup	4 28.7%	11 71.3%
Q1 - 8:54	MIA	Wade Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	4 29.9%	11 70.1%
Q1 - 9:00	CHA	Beasley STEAL (1 STL)	4 28.2%	11 71.8%
Q1 - 9:05	MIA	Beasley Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	4 30.5%	11 69.5%
Q1 - 9:19	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	4 34.0%	8 66.0%
Q1 - 9:19	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	3 33.6%	8 66.4%
Q1 - 9:35	MIA	O'Neal 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	2 32.1%	8 67.9%
Q1 - 9:54	CHA	Jackson 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	2 34.0%	6 66.0%
Q1 - 10:18	MIA	O'Neal Dunk (2 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)	0 32.8%	6 67.2%
Q1 - 10:26	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 34.3%	4 65.7%
Q1 - 10:27	CHA	MISS Jackson 9' Jump Shot	0 34.8%	4 65.2%
Q1 - 10:48	MIA	Beasley 12' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	0 36.1%	4 63.9%
Q1 - 11:07	MIA	Arroyo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 38.1%	2 61.9%
Q1 - 11:08	CHA	MISS Jackson 22' Jump Shot	0 38.5%	2 61.5%
Q1 - 11:24	MIA	Wade Dunk (2 PTS) (Arroyo 1 AST)	0 39.6%	2 60.4%
Q1 - 11:34	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 41.3%	0 58.7%
Q1 - 11:35	CHA	MISS Felton 24' 3PT Jump Shot	0 41.8%	0 58.2%
Q1 - 12:00	MIA	Jump Ball O'Neal vs. Mohammed: Tip to Felton	0 42.9%	0 57.1%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

CHA

1.29 64.5%

MIA

1.10 55.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

CHA

70%

MIA

56%

Midrange

CHA

40%

MIA

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

CHA

13.5

53%

79%

MIA

16.5

46%

69%

Free Throws

CHA

90%

MIA

88%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Bobcats

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Jackson	35	73%	17.5 / 24
G. Wallace	15	47%	7.5 / 16
D. Augustin	13	93%	6.5 / 7
N. Mohammed	10	100%	5.0 / 5
B. Diaw	9	50%	4.5 / 9
R. Felton	9	50%	4.5 / 9
R. Murray	9	75%	4.5 / 6
D. Brown	7	88%	3.5 / 4
S. Graham	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Wade	29	66%	14.5 / 22
Q. Richardson	20	67%	10.0 / 15
M. Beasley	14	58%	7.0 / 12
U. Haslem	13	65%	6.5 / 10
J. O'Neal	6	30%	3.0 / 10
M. Chalmers	4	67%	2.0 / 3
C. Arroyo	3	38%	1.5 / 4
D. Cook	3	38%	1.5 / 4
D. Wright	3	50%	1.5 / 3
J. Anthony	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

CHA

-11

MIA

+13

-15

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CHA

1.29 64.5%

MIA

1.10 55.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	105.0 106.7	CHA 121.6 +12.6 MIA 109.0
Pace	89.9 89.6	CHA 87.5 MIA 89.6 +2.1
Avg. Poss. Time	16.2 16.5	CHA 16.5 MIA 16.1 +0.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	49.0% 49.6%	CHA 59.0% +5.8% MIA 53.2%
TO %	16.4% 13.6%	CHA 13.9% +1.1% MIA 15.0%
ORB %	26.6% 26.0%	CHA 13.3% MIA 28.2% +14.9%
FTrt	34.6 29.6	CHA 46.3 +25.8 MIA 20.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	58.0% 51.9%	CHA 54.3% MIA 63.9% +9.6%
STL %	8.5% 8.1%	CHA 6.8% +0.1% MIA 6.7%
BLK %	9.2% 9.4%	CHA 5.6% MIA 12.0% +6.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.07 and 2.07.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.2% 52.1%	CHA 64.5% +9.4% MIA 55.1%
Rim FG%	57.1% 62.0%	CHA 70.0% +14.4% MIA 55.6%
Mid FG%	37.6% 40.8%	CHA 40.0% MIA 41.7% +1.7%
3P %	34.6% 34.6%	CHA 52.9% +7.1% MIA 45.8%
FT %	75.1% 75.2%	CHA 90.3% +2.8% MIA 87.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	42.9% 29.8%	CHA 29.9% +6.8% MIA 23.1%
Mid Att. %	36.0% 48.3%	CHA 44.8% +1.4% MIA 46.2%
3P Att. %	21.1% 21.9%	CHA 25.4% MIA 30.8% +5.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.47 and 2.47.

Game Totals	CHA	MIA
Possessions	88	89
Possession Minutes	24.1	23.9
Points	107	97
Rebounds	32	37
Assists	19	23
Steals	6	6
Blocks	3	6
Turnovers (Team)	11 (2)	15 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	4 (2)	11 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	28 (1)	26 (1)
Field Goals	35-67	36-78
At-the-Rim FG	14-20	10-18
Midrange FG	12-30	15-36
2-Point FG	26-50	25-54
3-Point FG	9-17	11-24
Free Throws	28-31	14-16
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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19 Charlotte Bobcats

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephen Jackson G · 6'8" 220 · 32	46.0	35	73%	8	2	2	0	1	1	0	8	9-9	100%	7-13	54%	4-7	57%
Gerald Wallace F · 6'7" 220 · 27	45.4	15	47%	8	3	0	3	2	2	1	7	9-11	82%	3-9	33%	0-2	0%
Boris Diaw F · 6'8" 250 · 28	35.2	9	50%	5	5	1	0	4	4	1	4	3-4	75%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Raymond Felton G · 6'1" 205 · 26	34.8	9	50%	3	6	1	0	1	2	1	2	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	0-2	0%
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 32	16.1	10	100%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	2-2	100%	4-4	100%	0-0	-
Flip Murray G · 6'3" 200 · 30	17.9	9	75%	1	2	1	0	0	4	0	1	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	1-1	100%
D.J. Augustin G · 6'0" 183 · 22	17.9	13	93%	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	3-4	75%
DeSagana Diop C · 7'0" 280 · 28	17.9	0	0%	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Derrick Brown F · 6'8" 233 · 22	7.9	7	88%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-1	100%
Stephen Graham G-F · 6'6" 215 · 28	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Gerald Henderson G · 6'5" 215 · 22
Acie Law G · 6'3" 202 · 25
Tyson Chandler #6 · C · 7'1" 240 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Alexis Ajinca #21 · C · 7'2" 248 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	65%	32	19	6	3	11	0	4	28	28-31	90%	26-50	52%	9-17	53%

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19 Charlotte Bobcats

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephen Jackson G · 6'8" 220 · 32	46.0	35	73%	8	2	2	0	1	1	0	8	9-9	100%	7-13	54%	4-7	57%
Gerald Wallace F · 6'7" 220 · 27	45.4	15	47%	8	3	0	3	2	2	1	7	9-11	82%	3-9	33%	0-2	0%
Boris Diaw F · 6'8" 250 · 28	35.2	9	50%	5	5	1	0	4	4	1	4	3-4	75%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Raymond Felton G · 6'1" 205 · 26	34.8	9	50%	3	6	1	0	1	2	1	2	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	0-2	0%
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 32	16.1	10	100%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	2-2	100%	4-4	100%	0-0	-
Flip Murray G · 6'3" 200 · 30	17.9	9	75%	1	2	1	0	0	4	0	1	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	1-1	100%
D.J. Augustin G · 6'0" 183 · 22	17.9	13	93%	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	3-4	75%
DeSagana Diop C · 7'0" 280 · 28	17.9	0	0%	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Derrick Brown F · 6'8" 233 · 22	7.9	7	88%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-1	100%
Stephen Graham G-F · 6'6" 215 · 28	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Gerald Henderson G · 6'5" 215 · 22
Acie Law G · 6'3" 202 · 25
Tyson Chandler #6 · C · 7'1" 240 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Alexis Ajinca #21 · C · 7'2" 248 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	65%	32	19	6	3	11	0	4	28	28-31	90%	26-50	52%	9-17	53%

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15 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dwyane Wade G · 6'4" 220 · 28	42.8	29	66%	3	11	2	1	6	3	1	2	7-7	100%	5-11	45%	4-8	50%
Quentin Richardson F · 6'6" 228 · 30	42.6	20	67%	5	0	1	0	3	3	0	5	0-0	-	1-3	33%	6-12	50%
Carlos Arroyo G · 6'2" 200 · 30	33.5	3	38%	4	9	0	0	1	1	1	3	1-1	100%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Michael Beasley F · 6'9" 235 · 21	27.3	14	58%	6	0	1	0	2	4	1	5	2-3	67%	6-11	55%	0-0	-
Jermaine O'Neal C · 6'11" 255 · 31	26.4	6	30%	5	0	0	4	1	4	1	4	0-0	-	3-10	30%	0-0	-
Udonis Haslem F · 6'8" 235 · 30	34.7	13	65%	10	0	0	1	0	4	5	5	3-4	75%	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Mario Chalmers G · 6'2" 190 · 24	12.6	4	67%	2	3	1	0	2	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Joel Anthony C · 6'9" 245 · 27	7.6	2	100%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Daequan Cook G · 6'5" 210 · 23	7.0	3	38%	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-4	25%
Dorell Wright F-G · 6'9" 205 · 24	5.4	3	50%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1-1	100%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Jamaal Magloire C · 6'11" 265 · 32
James Jones G-F · 6'8" 218 · 29
Yakhouba Diawara #9 · F-G · 6'7" 225 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Chris Quinn #11 · G · 6'2" 175 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	55%	37	23	6	6	15	0	11	26	14-16	88%	25-54	46%	11-24	46%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE