Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	7	Hawks	60%	102	108
	21	Grizzlies	40%	99	94

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
ATL	122.7	88	87.8
MEM	106.8	88	88.2

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+14

-15

MEM

+11

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.24 62.1%

MEM

1.08 54.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	MEM
Q4 - 0:00.0	ATL		108 100%	94 0%
Q4 - 0:10.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	108 99.9%	94 0.1%
Q4 - 0:11.0	ATL	MISS Evans 19' Jump Shot	108 99.9%	94 0.1%
Q4 - 0:35.0	MEM	Hudson Layup (2 PTS) (Young 3 AST)	108 99.9%	94 0.1%
Q4 - 0:40.0	MEM	Young REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 0:40.0	ATL	MISS Evans 3PT Jump Shot	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 0:50.0	ATL	Evans REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 0:51.0	ATL	MISS Collins 20' Jump Shot	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 1:13	ATL	West REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 1:13	MEM	MISS Hudson 20' Jump Shot	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 1:23	ATL	Teague Traveling Turnover (P2.T15)	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 1:40	ATL	Teague REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 1:40	MEM	MISS Conley 18' Jump Shot	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 1:51	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:6 Def:8)	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 1:52	ATL	MISS Evans Driving Layup	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 2:11	MEM	Conley 16' Step Back Jump Shot (12 PTS)	108 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 2:26	ATL	West Dunk (2 PTS) (Morris 1 AST)	108 99.9%	90 0.1%
Q4 - 2:44	MEM	Gay Reverse Dunk (18 PTS) (Mayo 4 AST)	106 99.9%	90 0.1%
Q4 - 2:50	ATL	Conley STEAL (2 STL)	106 99.9%	88 0.1%
Q4 - 3:09	MEM	Arthur 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Conley 7 AST)	106 99.9%	88 0.1%
Q4 - 3:23	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:6 Def:7)	106 99.9%	86 0.1%
Q4 - 3:24	ATL	MISS Teague 5' Jump Shot	106 99.9%	86 0.1%
Q4 - 3:49	MEM	Randolph 22' Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Conley 6 AST)	106 99.9%	86 0.1%
Q4 - 4:04	ATL	Smith 22' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Teague 1 AST)	106 99.9%	84 0.1%
Q4 - 4:21	MEM	Conley 21' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	104 99.9%	84 0.1%
Q4 - 4:42	ATL	Crawford 15' Jump Shot (28 PTS)	104 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 4:46	ATL	Hawks Rebound	102 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 4:47	ATL	Mayo BLOCK (1 BLK)	102 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 5:06	MEM	Conley Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T13)	102 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 5:13	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:6 Def:6)	102 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 5:15	ATL	Conley BLOCK (1 BLK)	102 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 5:34	ATL	Hawks Rebound	102 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 5:35	MEM	MISS Gay 20' Jump Shot	102 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 5:41	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	102 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 5:42	MEM	MISS Mayo 19' Jump Shot	102 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 6:08	ATL	Crawford 24' 3PT Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Johnson 5 AST)	102 99.8%	82 0.2%
Q4 - 6:25	MEM	Conley Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T12)	99 99.7%	82 0.3%
Q4 - 6:41	ATL	Smith Reverse Layup (15 PTS)	99 99.6%	82 0.4%
Q4 - 6:59	MEM	Randolph Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)	97 99.4%	82 0.6%
Q4 - 6:59	MEM	Randolph Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)	97 99.4%	81 0.6%
Q4 - 7:11	ATL	Horford Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)	97 99.3%	80 0.7%
Q4 - 7:11	ATL	MISS Horford Free Throw 1 of 2	96 99.3%	80 0.7%
Q4 - 7:12	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	96 99.4%	80 0.6%
Q4 - 7:13	ATL	MISS Crawford 3PT Jump Shot	96 99.2%	80 0.8%
Q4 - 7:35	ATL	Crawford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	96 99.4%	80 0.6%
Q4 - 7:35	MEM	MISS Williams 18' Jump Shot	96 99.3%	80 0.7%
Q4 - 7:54	ATL	Crawford 24' 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Johnson 4 AST)	96 99.1%	80 0.9%
Q4 - 8:13	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	93 98.1%	80 1.9%
Q4 - 8:13	MEM	MISS Mayo 25' 3PT Jump Shot	93 97.9%	80 2.1%
Q4 - 8:41	ATL	Crawford 26' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS)	93 97.6%	80 2.4%
Q4 - 8:58	MEM	Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Randolph 3 AST)	90 96.0%	80 4.0%
Q4 - 9:19	ATL	Evans 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Crawford 2 AST)	90 97.0%	77 3.0%
Q4 - 9:25	ATL	Evans REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	87 95.2%	77 4.8%
Q4 - 9:30	MEM	MISS Young Layup	87 94.9%	77 5.1%
Q4 - 9:35	MEM	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	87 94.0%	77 6.0%
Q4 - 9:35	ATL	MISS Horford 17' Jump Shot	87 94.4%	77 5.6%
Q4 - 10:00	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	87 95.3%	77 4.7%
Q4 - 10:01	MEM	MISS Young 8' Jump Shot	87 94.1%	77 5.9%
Q4 - 10:19	ATL	Horford Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	87 93.2%	77 6.8%
Q4 - 10:19	ATL	Horford Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	86 92.9%	77 7.1%
Q4 - 10:41	MEM	Young 18' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	85 91.7%	77 8.3%
Q4 - 11:03	ATL	Crawford 26' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Horford 4 AST)	85 92.5%	75 7.5%
Q4 - 11:18	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	82 88.9%	75 11.1%
Q4 - 11:19	MEM	MISS Mayo 19' Jump Shot	82 88.3%	75 11.7%
Q4 - 11:33	MEM	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	82 86.7%	75 13.3%
Q4 - 11:34	ATL	Gasol BLOCK (1 BLK)	82 87.4%	75 12.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL		82 89.0%	75 11.0%
Q3 - 0:01.0	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	82 88.0%	75 12.0%
Q3 - 0:03.0	ATL	MISS Crawford Free Throw 2 of 2	82 86.3%	75 13.7%
Q3 - 0:03.0	ATL	Crawford Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)	82 88.0%	75 12.0%
Q3 - 0:25.0	MEM	Young Driving Layup (6 PTS)	81 85.8%	75 14.2%
Q3 - 0:46.0	ATL	Smith Layup (13 PTS) (Crawford 1 AST)	81 88.3%	73 11.7%
Q3 - 0:53.0	MEM	Mayo Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T11)	79 85.8%	73 14.2%
Q3 - 1:07	ATL	Crawford 10' Step Back Jump Shot (13 PTS)	79 82.7%	73 17.3%
Q3 - 1:24	MEM	Mayo 17' Pullup Jump Shot (16 PTS)	77 79.5%	73 20.5%
Q3 - 1:41	ATL	Williams Layup (15 PTS)	77 82.8%	71 17.2%
Q3 - 1:43	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	75 79.5%	71 20.5%
Q3 - 1:44	ATL	MISS Crawford 8' Jump Shot	75 77.4%	71 22.6%
Q3 - 2:08	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	75 79.0%	71 21.0%
Q3 - 2:09	MEM	MISS Arthur 16' Jump Shot	75 78.0%	71 22.0%
Q3 - 2:23	ATL	Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	75 75.7%	71 24.3%
Q3 - 2:23	ATL	Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	74 75.2%	71 24.8%
Q3 - 2:35	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	73 72.1%	71 27.9%
Q3 - 2:35	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2	73 73.0%	70 27.0%
Q3 - 3:05	ATL	Smith 21' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Johnson 3 AST)	73 72.3%	70 27.7%
Q3 - 3:26	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:6 Def:5)	71 68.8%	70 31.2%
Q3 - 3:26	MEM	Randolph Layup (16 PTS)	71 68.8%	70 31.2%
Q3 - 3:28	MEM	MISS Gay 20' Step Back Jump Shot	71 74.9%	68 25.1%
Q3 - 3:47	ATL	Crawford 13' Step Back Jump Shot (11 PTS)	71 72.2%	68 27.8%
Q3 - 4:02	MEM	Randolph Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T10)	69 68.7%	68 31.3%
Q3 - 4:05	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:5 Def:5)	69 64.1%	68 35.9%
Q3 - 4:07	MEM	MISS Randolph Layup	69 67.3%	68 32.7%
Q3 - 4:08	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)	69 64.1%	68 35.9%
Q3 - 4:09	MEM	MISS Young 3PT Jump Shot	69 67.3%	68 32.7%
Q3 - 4:22	ATL	Smith Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T13)	69 64.2%	68 35.8%
Q3 - 4:23	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	69 68.7%	68 31.3%
Q3 - 4:24	MEM	MISS Randolph Layup	69 67.4%	68 32.6%
Q3 - 4:35	ATL	Horford Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	69 64.2%	68 35.8%
Q3 - 4:35	ATL	Horford Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	68 63.3%	68 36.7%
Q3 - 4:50	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	67 60.8%	68 39.2%
Q3 - 4:50	MEM	Arthur Layup (2 PTS)	67 60.8%	68 39.2%
Q3 - 4:53	MEM	MISS Conley Layup	67 67.4%	66 32.6%
Q3 - 4:58	ATL	Randolph STEAL (1 STL)	67 64.2%	66 35.8%
Q3 - 5:01	ATL	Crawford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	67 68.1%	66 31.9%
Q3 - 5:02	MEM	MISS Randolph 20' Jump Shot	67 66.8%	66 33.2%
Q3 - 5:14	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	67 63.8%	66 36.2%
Q3 - 5:14	ATL	MISS Bibby 25' 3PT Jump Shot	67 65.2%	66 34.8%
Q3 - 5:34	MEM	Gay Slam Dunk (16 PTS) (Conley 5 AST)	67 68.1%	66 31.9%
Q3 - 5:38	ATL	Mayo STEAL (3 STL)	67 71.2%	64 28.8%
Q3 - 5:43	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	67 75.0%	64 25.0%
Q3 - 5:44	MEM	MISS Gasol 6' Jump Shot	67 73.9%	64 26.1%
Q3 - 5:56	ATL	Bibby Free Throw 1 of 1 (11 PTS)	67 71.2%	64 28.8%
Q3 - 6:24	MEM	Conley Driving Layup (8 PTS)	64 64.6%	64 35.4%
Q3 - 6:35	ATL	Smith Reverse Slam Dunk (9 PTS) (Bibby 6 AST)	64 67.8%	62 32.2%
Q3 - 6:43	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	62 64.6%	62 35.4%
Q3 - 6:43	MEM	MISS Conley 19' Jump Shot	62 63.3%	62 36.7%
Q3 - 6:54	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	62 60.3%	62 39.7%
Q3 - 6:56	ATL	MISS Smith Free Throw 2 of 2	62 60.9%	62 39.1%
Q3 - 6:56	ATL	Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	62 63.0%	62 37.0%
Q3 - 6:59	MEM	Gay Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T9)	61 60.7%	62 39.3%
Q3 - 7:06	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	61 56.5%	62 43.5%
Q3 - 7:06	ATL	MISS Williams 19' Jump Shot	61 57.8%	62 42.2%
Q3 - 7:19	ATL	Hawks Rebound	61 60.6%	62 39.4%
Q3 - 7:20	MEM	MISS Gay 24' 3PT Jump Shot	61 59.4%	62 40.6%
Q3 - 7:33	MEM	Mayo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	61 56.5%	62 43.5%
Q3 - 7:35	MEM	MISS Randolph Putback Layup	61 59.4%	62 40.6%
Q3 - 7:36	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	61 56.5%	62 43.5%
Q3 - 7:39	MEM	MISS Mayo Layup	61 59.4%	62 40.6%
Q3 - 7:43	ATL	Johnson 11' Running Jump Shot (11 PTS)	61 56.5%	62 43.5%
Q3 - 8:10	MEM	Gay Alley Oop Dunk (14 PTS) (Conley 4 AST)	59 53.2%	62 46.8%
Q3 - 8:13	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	59 56.7%	60 43.3%
Q3 - 8:14	ATL	MISS Johnson 19' Step Back Jump Shot	59 57.9%	60 42.1%
Q3 - 8:37	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	59 60.6%	60 39.4%
Q3 - 8:37	MEM	GRIZZLIES Turnover: Shot Clock (T#8)	59 60.6%	60 39.4%
Q3 - 8:37	MEM	MISS Randolph 26' 3PT Jump Shot	59 59.4%	60 40.6%
Q3 - 9:02	ATL	Mayo STEAL (2 STL)	59 57.2%	60 42.8%
Q3 - 9:09	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	59 60.8%	60 39.2%
Q3 - 9:10	MEM	MISS Mayo 24' 3PT Jump Shot	59 59.7%	60 40.3%
Q3 - 9:16	MEM	Mayo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	59 57.1%	60 42.9%
Q3 - 9:17	ATL	MISS Bibby 25' 3PT Jump Shot	59 58.3%	60 41.7%
Q3 - 9:38	MEM	Mayo 22' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	59 60.8%	60 39.2%
Q3 - 10:04	ATL	Bibby 19' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	59 64.4%	58 35.6%
Q3 - 10:33	MEM	Conley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Gasol 2 AST)	57 61.1%	58 38.9%
Q3 - 10:54	ATL	Johnson 5' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Bibby 5 AST)	57 67.6%	55 32.4%
Q3 - 11:16	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	55 64.8%	55 35.2%
Q3 - 11:16	MEM	MISS Gasol 9' Jump Shot	55 63.7%	55 36.3%
Q3 - 11:43	ATL	Smith Layup (6 PTS) (Bibby 4 AST)	55 61.3%	55 38.7%
Q3 - 11:48	MEM	Gay Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T7)	53 58.1%	55 41.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL		53 54.5%	55 45.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	53 58.1%	55 41.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Williams 49' 3PT Jump Shot	53 55.6%	55 44.4%
Q2 - 0:01.0	MEM	Conley Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	53 58.2%	55 41.8%
Q2 - 0:08.0	ATL	Crawford Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T9)	53 55.7%	55 44.3%
Q2 - 0:25.0	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	53 58.2%	55 41.8%
Q2 - 0:25.0	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	53 59.0%	54 41.0%
Q2 - 0:36.0	ATL	Horford 15' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Bibby 3 AST)	53 62.1%	53 37.9%
Q2 - 0:44.0	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	51 58.2%	53 41.8%
Q2 - 0:45.0	MEM	MISS Young 3PT Jump Shot	51 57.4%	53 42.6%
Q2 - 1:00	ATL	Horford 17' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)	51 55.6%	53 44.4%
Q2 - 1:11	MEM	Randolph Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T5)	49 52.0%	53 48.0%
Q2 - 1:25	ATL	Williams Free Throw 1 of 1 (11 PTS)	49 49.6%	53 50.4%
Q2 - 1:41	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	46 42.2%	53 57.8%
Q2 - 1:42	MEM	MISS Gay 20' Jump Shot	46 41.4%	53 58.6%
Q2 - 1:59	ATL	Williams Layup (8 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	46 39.8%	53 60.2%
Q2 - 2:02	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	44 37.2%	53 62.8%
Q2 - 2:02	ATL	MISS Bibby 25' 3PT Jump Shot	44 35.0%	53 65.0%
Q2 - 2:19	MEM	Gay Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	44 37.1%	53 62.9%
Q2 - 2:19	MEM	Gay Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	44 37.7%	52 62.3%
Q2 - 2:20	ATL	Gay STEAL (2 STL)	44 40.0%	51 60.0%
Q2 - 2:23	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	44 43.2%	51 56.8%
Q2 - 2:24	ATL	MISS Johnson 9' Jump Shot	44 41.0%	51 59.0%
Q2 - 2:48	MEM	Mayo Reverse Layup (12 PTS) (Gasol 1 AST)	44 43.2%	51 56.8%
Q2 - 2:59	ATL	Horford Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T7)	44 46.3%	49 53.7%
Q2 - 3:07	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	44 50.6%	49 49.4%
Q2 - 3:07	MEM	MISS Conley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	44 49.5%	49 50.5%
Q2 - 3:12	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	44 46.9%	49 53.1%
Q2 - 3:13	MEM	MISS Mayo 3PT Jump Shot	44 49.5%	49 50.5%
Q2 - 3:39	ATL	Horford Dunk (6 PTS) (Smith 4 AST)	44 46.8%	49 53.2%
Q2 - 3:59	MEM	Gasol 5' Hook Bank Shot (8 PTS) (Randolph 2 AST)	42 44.3%	49 55.7%
Q2 - 4:13	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	42 47.5%	47 52.5%
Q2 - 4:14	ATL	MISS Bibby 16' Jump Shot	42 48.5%	47 51.5%
Q2 - 4:31	MEM	Randolph Layup (14 PTS)	42 50.8%	47 49.2%
Q2 - 4:34	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	42 53.6%	45 46.4%
Q2 - 4:35	MEM	MISS Mayo 25' 3PT Jump Shot	42 55.9%	45 44.1%
Q2 - 5:01	ATL	Horford Layup (4 PTS) (Johnson 2 AST)	42 54.4%	45 45.6%
Q2 - 5:23	MEM	Mayo 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Conley 3 AST)	40 51.2%	45 48.8%
Q2 - 5:38	ATL	Johnson 8' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	40 57.2%	42 42.8%
Q2 - 5:50	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	38 54.2%	42 45.8%
Q2 - 5:51	MEM	MISS Randolph Layup	38 53.3%	42 46.7%
Q2 - 6:03	ATL	Smith Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)	38 51.2%	42 48.8%
Q2 - 6:07	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	38 54.6%	42 45.4%
Q2 - 6:07	MEM	MISS Mayo 24' 3PT Jump Shot	38 53.6%	42 46.4%
Q2 - 6:25	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	38 51.2%	42 48.8%
Q2 - 6:26	ATL	MISS Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot	38 52.3%	42 47.7%
Q2 - 6:37	ATL	Crawford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	38 54.6%	42 45.4%
Q2 - 6:37	MEM	MISS Gasol 12' Jump Shot	38 53.6%	42 46.4%
Q2 - 7:00	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	38 51.2%	42 48.8%
Q2 - 7:01	ATL	MISS Horford 7' Jump Shot	38 53.0%	42 47.0%
Q2 - 7:21	MEM	Mayo 9' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Williams 3 AST)	38 55.0%	42 45.0%
Q2 - 7:27	ATL	Williams STEAL (1 STL)	38 57.7%	40 42.3%
Q2 - 7:37	MEM	Randolph 10' Step Back Jump Shot (12 PTS)	38 60.5%	40 39.5%
Q2 - 7:56	ATL	Williams Dunk (6 PTS)	38 63.0%	38 37.0%
Q2 - 8:02	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	36 60.6%	38 39.4%
Q2 - 8:02	MEM	MISS Mayo 11' Jump Shot	36 59.8%	38 40.2%
Q2 - 8:22	ATL	Crawford 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Horford 3 AST)	36 57.9%	38 42.1%
Q2 - 8:47	MEM	Young Alley Oop Dunk (4 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)	33 52.6%	38 47.4%
Q2 - 8:54	MEM	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	33 55.3%	36 44.7%
Q2 - 8:55	ATL	MISS Smith 7' Jump Shot	33 56.1%	36 43.9%
Q2 - 9:13	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	33 58.1%	36 41.9%
Q2 - 9:14	MEM	MISS Randolph Free Throw 1 of 1	33 57.7%	36 42.3%
Q2 - 9:27	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	33 60.5%	34 39.5%
Q2 - 9:31	ATL	Evans REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	33 63.2%	34 36.8%
Q2 - 9:31	ATL	MISS Evans Tip Shot	33 61.3%	34 38.7%
Q2 - 9:33	ATL	MISS Teague 19' Jump Shot	33 61.3%	34 38.7%
Q2 - 9:46	ATL	Hawks Rebound	33 63.2%	34 36.8%
Q2 - 9:48	MEM	MISS Randolph Layup	33 62.4%	34 37.6%
Q2 - 9:50	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	33 60.5%	34 39.5%
Q2 - 9:51	MEM	MISS Randolph 12' Jump Shot	33 62.4%	34 37.6%
Q2 - 10:16	ATL	Teague 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	33 60.4%	34 39.6%
Q2 - 10:28	MEM	Randolph Layup (8 PTS) (Young 2 AST)	31 58.1%	34 41.9%
Q2 - 10:41	ATL	Smith Dunk (4 PTS)	31 60.4%	32 39.6%
Q2 - 10:42	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	29 58.1%	32 41.9%
Q2 - 10:43	ATL	MISS Crawford 21' Jump Shot	29 56.2%	32 43.8%
Q2 - 10:51	ATL	Collins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	29 58.1%	32 41.9%
Q2 - 10:52	MEM	MISS Williams 21' Jump Shot	29 57.3%	32 42.7%
Q2 - 11:21	ATL	Crawford Driving Layup (6 PTS)	29 55.5%	32 44.5%
Q2 - 11:44	MEM	Randolph 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)	27 53.1%	32 46.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM		27 55.5%	30 44.5%
Q1 - 0:03.0	ATL	Crawford Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	27 56.0%	30 44.0%
Q1 - 0:03.0	ATL	MISS Crawford Free Throw 1 of 2	26 55.6%	30 44.4%
Q1 - 0:09.0	MEM	Gay 12' Floating Jump Shot (10 PTS)	26 55.4%	30 44.6%
Q1 - 0:26.0	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	26 58.3%	28 41.7%
Q1 - 0:26.0	ATL	MISS Smith 20' Jump Shot	26 58.9%	28 41.1%
Q1 - 0:42.0	MEM	Gay 14' Turnaround Fadeaway (8 PTS)	26 60.2%	28 39.8%
Q1 - 0:49.0	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	26 63.0%	26 37.0%
Q1 - 0:50.0	ATL	MISS Crawford 17' Jump Shot	26 63.6%	26 36.4%
Q1 - 1:06	MEM	Young 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	26 64.8%	26 35.2%
Q1 - 1:23	ATL	Crawford Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T4)	26 67.6%	24 32.4%
Q1 - 1:40	MEM	Randolph Layup (4 PTS) (Young 1 AST)	26 69.0%	24 31.0%
Q1 - 1:57	ATL	Crawford Free Throw 3 of 3 (3 PTS)	26 71.6%	22 28.4%
Q1 - 1:57	ATL	Crawford Free Throw 2 of 3 (2 PTS)	25 71.4%	22 28.6%
Q1 - 1:57	ATL	Crawford Free Throw 1 of 3 (1 PTS)	24 71.1%	22 28.9%
Q1 - 2:16	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	23 67.2%	22 32.8%
Q1 - 2:16	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	23 67.7%	21 32.3%
Q1 - 2:34	ATL	Smith Layup (2 PTS) (Horford 2 AST)	23 69.5%	20 30.5%
Q1 - 2:44	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	21 67.2%	20 32.8%
Q1 - 2:44	MEM	MISS Gay 12' Jump Shot	21 66.6%	20 33.4%
Q1 - 2:55	MEM	Mayo Free Throw Technical (5 PTS)	21 65.4%	20 34.6%
Q1 - 2:57	ATL	Gay STEAL (1 STL)	21 67.5%	19 32.5%
Q1 - 3:07	MEM	Arthur Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	21 69.6%	19 30.4%
Q1 - 3:24	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	21 67.5%	19 32.5%
Q1 - 3:25	ATL	MISS Bibby 25' 3PT Jump Shot	21 68.2%	19 31.8%
Q1 - 3:53	MEM	Gay 12' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	21 69.6%	19 30.4%
Q1 - 4:08	ATL	Smith Finger Roll Layup (4 PTS) (Bibby 2 AST)	21 71.2%	17 28.8%
Q1 - 4:19	MEM	Gay 20' Step Back Jump Shot (4 PTS)	19 69.4%	17 30.6%
Q1 - 4:45	ATL	Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	19 71.2%	15 28.8%
Q1 - 4:45	ATL	MISS Smith Free Throw 1 of 2	18 70.6%	15 29.4%
Q1 - 4:46	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	18 71.3%	15 28.7%
Q1 - 4:49	MEM	MISS Gasol 12' Turnaround Jump Shot	18 70.7%	15 29.3%
Q1 - 5:09	ATL	Bibby 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	18 68.8%	15 31.2%
Q1 - 5:18	ATL	Bibby Free Throw Technical (4 PTS)	16 67.1%	15 32.9%
Q1 - 5:40	MEM	Gay 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Conley 2 AST)	15 65.2%	15 34.8%
Q1 - 6:03	ATL	Williams Dunk (4 PTS) (Horford 1 AST)	15 67.1%	13 32.9%
Q1 - 6:05	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	13 65.3%	13 34.7%
Q1 - 6:05	ATL	MISS Johnson 17' Jump Shot	13 63.9%	13 36.1%
Q1 - 6:27	MEM	Gasol Dunk (4 PTS) (Mayo 2 AST)	13 65.3%	13 34.7%
Q1 - 6:36	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	13 67.1%	11 32.9%
Q1 - 6:37	ATL	MISS Williams 16' Jump Shot	13 67.7%	11 32.3%
Q1 - 7:02	MEM	Mayo Layup (4 PTS) (Conley 1 AST)	13 69.1%	11 30.9%
Q1 - 7:06	ATL	Mayo STEAL (1 STL)	13 70.8%	9 29.2%
Q1 - 7:12	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	13 72.6%	9 27.4%
Q1 - 7:12	MEM	MISS Mayo 23' Jump Shot	13 72.0%	9 28.0%
Q1 - 7:20	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	13 70.8%	9 29.2%
Q1 - 7:21	ATL	MISS Smith Layup	13 71.3%	9 28.7%
Q1 - 7:34	ATL	Bibby Free Throw Technical (3 PTS)	13 72.6%	9 27.4%
Q1 - 7:44	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	12 70.9%	9 29.1%
Q1 - 7:44	MEM	MISS Mayo 10' Jump Shot	12 70.3%	9 29.7%
Q1 - 8:04	ATL	Williams Alley Oop Dunk (2 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)	12 69.3%	9 30.7%
Q1 - 8:09	MEM	Randolph Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T3)	10 67.5%	9 32.5%
Q1 - 8:22	ATL	Horford 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Smith 3 AST)	10 65.7%	9 34.3%
Q1 - 8:45	MEM	Randolph Layup (2 PTS) (Mayo 1 AST)	8 63.8%	9 36.2%
Q1 - 8:50	ATL	Conley STEAL (1 STL)	8 65.7%	7 34.3%
Q1 - 9:05	MEM	Gasol 9' Running Hook Shot (2 PTS)	8 67.9%	7 32.1%
Q1 - 9:26	ATL	Hawks Rebound	8 69.6%	5 30.4%
Q1 - 9:26	ATL	Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	8 69.6%	5 30.4%
Q1 - 9:26	ATL	MISS Smith Free Throw 1 of 2	7 69.1%	5 30.9%
Q1 - 9:32	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	7 69.6%	5 30.4%
Q1 - 9:33	ATL	MISS Johnson 8' Floating Jump Shot	7 68.4%	5 31.6%
Q1 - 9:57	MEM	Conley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Randolph 1 AST)	7 69.5%	5 30.5%
Q1 - 10:16	ATL	Bibby 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)	7 72.3%	2 27.7%
Q1 - 10:38	MEM	Mayo Driving Layup (2 PTS)	5 71.0%	2 29.0%
Q1 - 10:43	MEM	Mayo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	5 72.3%	0 27.7%
Q1 - 10:44	ATL	MISS Smith 21' Jump Shot	5 72.8%	0 27.2%
Q1 - 10:51	MEM	Conley Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	5 74.0%	0 26.0%
Q1 - 11:16	ATL	Johnson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	5 71.8%	0 28.2%
Q1 - 11:25	MEM	Randolph Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	2 68.9%	0 31.1%
Q1 - 11:44	ATL	Johnson 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Bibby 1 AST)	2 67.5%	0 32.5%
Q1 - 12:00	MEM	Jump Ball Gasol vs. Smith: Tip to Bibby	0 66.0%	0 34.0%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.24 62.1%

MEM

1.08 54.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

82%

MEM

70%

Midrange

ATL

44%

MEM

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

10.5

44%

66%

MEM

6.0

29%

43%

Free Throws

ATL

76%

MEM

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Crawford	28	82%	14.0 / 17
J. Smith	17	65%	8.5 / 13
A. Horford	15	75%	7.5 / 10
M. Williams	15	68%	7.5 / 11
J. Johnson	11	61%	5.5 / 9
M. Bibby	11	61%	5.5 / 9
J. Smith	4	67%	2.0 / 3
M. Evans	3	25%	1.5 / 6
J. Teague	2	25%	1.0 / 4
M. West	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. Collins	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
Z. Randolph	20	56%	10.0 / 18
R. Gay	18	64%	9.0 / 14
O. Mayo	16	44%	8.0 / 18
M. Conley	12	67%	6.0 / 9
M. Gasol	11	61%	5.5 / 9
S. Young	8	50%	4.0 / 8
D. Arthur	4	67%	2.0 / 3
M. Williams	3	50%	1.5 / 3
L. Hudson	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+14

-15

MEM

+11

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.24 62.1%

MEM

1.08 54.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	112.2 108.6	ATL 122.7 +15.9 MEM 106.8
Pace	89.9 93.4	ATL 87.8 MEM 88.2 +0.4
Avg. Poss. Time	16.2 15.5	ATL 16.4 MEM 16.3 +0.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	50.6% 49.4%	ATL 60.1% +7.6% MEM 52.5%
TO %	12.7% 15.3%	ATL 15.0% MEM 13.2% +1.8%
ORB %	28.3% 31.3%	ATL 31.3% +4.3% MEM 27.0%
FTrt	28.1 32.0	ATL 33.8 +18.8 MEM 15.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	56.2% 47.9%	ATL 61.0% +6.0% MEM 55.0%
STL %	8.0% 8.3%	ATL 11.4% +1.2% MEM 10.2%
BLK %	7.9% 7.6%	ATL 4.5% MEM 5.2% +0.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.27 and 2.27.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	53.3% 52.2%	ATL 62.1% +8.1% MEM 54.0%
Rim FG%	60.8% 59.0%	ATL 81.8% +11.4% MEM 70.4%
Mid FG%	40.6% 40.3%	ATL 44.4% +0.8% MEM 43.6%
3P %	36.0% 33.7%	ATL 43.8% +15.2% MEM 28.6%
FT %	75.9% 73.3%	ATL 76.0% MEM 83.3% +7.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	35.5% 40.6%	ATL 29.7% MEM 33.8% +4.0%
Mid Att. %	43.1% 44.6%	ATL 48.6% +0.1% MEM 48.8%
3P Att. %	21.4% 14.8%	ATL 21.6% +4.1% MEM 17.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	ATL	MEM
Possessions	88	88
Possession Minutes	24.1	23.9
Points	108	94
Rebounds	37	32
Assists	25	22
Steals	10	9
Blocks	3	3
Turnovers (Team)	15 (0)	12 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (4)	10 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (3)	22 (0)
Field Goals	41-74	40-80
At-the-Rim FG	18-22	19-27
Midrange FG	16-36	17-39
2-Point FG	34-58	36-66
3-Point FG	7-16	4-14
Free Throws	19-25	10-12
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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7 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Al Horford C · 6'10" 245 · 24	36.7	15	75%	8	4	3	0	2	4	3	5	5-6	83%	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 24	32.0	15	68%	7	0	1	1	1	2	1	6	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	0-2	0%
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 24	30.3	17	65%	6	4	3	1	3	3	1	5	3-6	50%	7-10	70%	0-0	-
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 29	26.1	11	61%	0	5	0	0	0	4	0	0	0-0	-	4-8	50%	1-1	100%
Mike Bibby G · 6'2" 195 · 32	22.2	11	61%	3	6	2	0	2	0	0	3	3-3	100%	4-5	80%	0-4	0%
Jamal Crawford G · 6'5" 185 · 30	26.8	28	82%	3	2	1	0	4	1	0	3	5-7	71%	4-7	57%	5-7	71%
Maurice Evans G-F · 6'5" 220 · 31	20.5	3	25%	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	0-0	-	0-4	0%	1-2	50%
Joe Smith F-C · 6'10" 225 · 35	16.4	4	67%	4	2	0	0	0	2	3	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jeff Teague G · 6'2" 189 · 22	12.6	2	25%	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Jason Collins C · 7'0" 255 · 31	8.2	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Randolph Morris C · 6'11" 275 · 24	4.4	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Mario West G · 6'5" 210 · 26	3.9	2	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Zaza Pachulia #27 · C · 6'11" 270 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	62%	37	25	10	3	15	0	10	27	19-25	76%	34-58	59%	7-16	44%

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7 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Al Horford C · 6'10" 245 · 24	36.7	15	75%	8	4	3	0	2	4	3	5	5-6	83%	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 24	32.0	15	68%	7	0	1	1	1	2	1	6	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	0-2	0%
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 24	30.3	17	65%	6	4	3	1	3	3	1	5	3-6	50%	7-10	70%	0-0	-
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 29	26.1	11	61%	0	5	0	0	0	4	0	0	0-0	-	4-8	50%	1-1	100%
Mike Bibby G · 6'2" 195 · 32	22.2	11	61%	3	6	2	0	2	0	0	3	3-3	100%	4-5	80%	0-4	0%
Jamal Crawford G · 6'5" 185 · 30	26.8	28	82%	3	2	1	0	4	1	0	3	5-7	71%	4-7	57%	5-7	71%
Maurice Evans G-F · 6'5" 220 · 31	20.5	3	25%	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	0-0	-	0-4	0%	1-2	50%
Joe Smith F-C · 6'10" 225 · 35	16.4	4	67%	4	2	0	0	0	2	3	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jeff Teague G · 6'2" 189 · 22	12.6	2	25%	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Jason Collins C · 7'0" 255 · 31	8.2	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Randolph Morris C · 6'11" 275 · 24	4.4	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Mario West G · 6'5" 210 · 26	3.9	2	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Zaza Pachulia #27 · C · 6'11" 270 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	62%	37	25	10	3	15	0	10	27	19-25	76%	34-58	59%	7-16	44%

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21 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
O.J. Mayo G · 6'5" 210 · 22	40.4	16	44%	3	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	1-1	100%	6-12	50%	1-6	17%
Zach Randolph F · 6'9" 250 · 29	37.9	20	56%	14	3	1	0	4	2	6	8	2-3	67%	9-16	56%	0-1	0%
Marc Gasol C · 7'1" 255 · 25	37.8	11	61%	6	2	0	1	0	2	2	4	5-6	83%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Rudy Gay F · 6'8" 230 · 23	34.5	18	64%	1	0	2	0	2	5	0	1	2-2	100%	8-12	67%	0-1	0%
Mike Conley G · 6'0" 175 · 22	32.0	12	67%	0	7	2	1	4	2	0	0	0-0	-	3-6	50%	2-3	67%
Sam Young F-G · 6'6" 225 · 25	19.6	8	50%	1	3	0	0	0	4	0	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-2	0%
Darrell Arthur F · 6'9" 235 · 22	18.8	4	67%	4	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Marcus Williams G · 6'3" 205 · 24	14.4	3	50%	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-1	100%
DeMarre Carroll F · 6'8" 215 · 24	1.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Hasheem Thabeet C · 7'3" 263 · 23	1.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lester Hudson G · 6'3" 190 · 26	1.6	2	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Jamaal Tinsley G · 6'3" 188 · 32
Hamed Haddadi #15 · C · 7'2" 265 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Steven Hunter #45 · C · 7'0" 240 · 28	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	94	54%	32	22	9	3	12	0	10	22	10-12	83%	36-66	55%	4-14	29%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE