Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, March 28, 2010

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	4	Nuggets	34%	99	97
	2	Magic	66%	104	103

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
DEN	114.1	85	83.8
ORL	119.8	86	87.3

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+10

-9

ORL

+12

-9

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.11 55.7%

ORL

1.13 56.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	ORL
Q4 - 0:00.0	ORL		97 0%	103 100%
Q4 - 0:17.0	DEN	Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS)	97 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 0:23.0	ORL	Nelson Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T9)	94 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 0:43.0	DEN	Nene Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	94 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 0:43.0	DEN	Nene Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	93 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 0:53.0	ORL	Nelson 15' Fadeaway Bank Shot (15 PTS)	92 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 1:10	ORL	MAGIC Rebound	92 0.3%	101 99.7%
Q4 - 1:10	DEN	Lewis BLOCK (2 BLK)	92 0.3%	101 99.7%
Q4 - 1:10	ORL	MISS Redick Free Throw Technical	92 0.5%	101 99.5%
Q4 - 1:16	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	92 0.6%	101 99.4%
Q4 - 1:18	ORL	MISS Barnes 3PT Jump Shot	92 0.6%	101 99.4%
Q4 - 1:40	DEN	Billups 16' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	92 0.6%	101 99.4%
Q4 - 1:50	ORL	Barnes 23' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Nelson 4 AST)	90 0.5%	101 99.5%
Q4 - 2:06	ORL	Redick REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	90 0.7%	99 99.3%
Q4 - 2:08	DEN	MISS Anthony 28' 3PT Jump Shot	90 0.8%	99 99.2%
Q4 - 2:21	ORL	Nelson 18' Jump Shot (13 PTS)	90 1.3%	99 98.7%
Q4 - 2:45	ORL	Lewis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	90 1.7%	97 98.3%
Q4 - 2:47	DEN	MISS Billups 18' Jump Shot	90 2.1%	97 97.9%
Q4 - 2:57	ORL	Redick 19' Jump Shot (23 PTS)	90 4.3%	97 95.7%
Q4 - 3:13	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)	90 5.8%	95 94.2%
Q4 - 3:13	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (25 PTS)	89 5.4%	95 94.6%
Q4 - 3:24	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	88 4.2%	95 95.8%
Q4 - 3:26	ORL	MISS Nelson 27' 3PT Jump Shot	88 3.5%	95 96.5%
Q4 - 3:42	DEN	Nene Slam Dunk (11 PTS) (Billups 5 AST)	88 4.2%	95 95.8%
Q4 - 3:50	ORL	Howard Layup (18 PTS)	86 3.0%	95 97.0%
Q4 - 4:10	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)	86 4.0%	93 96.0%
Q4 - 4:10	DEN	MISS Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2	85 3.8%	93 96.2%
Q4 - 4:28	ORL	Nelson Driving Layup (11 PTS) (Howard 5 AST)	85 4.1%	93 95.9%
Q4 - 4:52	ORL	Anderson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	85 5.6%	91 94.4%
Q4 - 4:55	DEN	MISS Afflalo 14' Jump Shot	85 6.3%	91 93.7%
Q4 - 5:19	ORL	Nelson Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P3.T8)	85 10.5%	91 89.5%
Q4 - 5:31	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)	85 7.6%	91 92.4%
Q4 - 5:32	DEN	MISS Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot	85 8.4%	91 91.6%
Q4 - 5:34	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	85 10.5%	91 89.5%
Q4 - 5:37	DEN	MISS Anthony 17' Jump Shot	85 8.4%	91 91.6%
Q4 - 5:54	ORL	Howard Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	85 10.4%	91 89.6%
Q4 - 5:54	ORL	MISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 2	85 11.5%	90 88.5%
Q4 - 5:54	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)	85 10.3%	90 89.7%
Q4 - 5:55	ORL	MISS Williams Layup	85 12.8%	90 87.2%
Q4 - 6:16	ORL	Redick REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	85 11.9%	90 88.1%
Q4 - 6:18	DEN	Lewis BLOCK (1 BLK)	85 13.0%	90 87.0%
Q4 - 6:28	DEN	Graham REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	85 15.7%	90 84.3%
Q4 - 6:32	ORL	MISS Howard 6' Hook Shot	85 14.4%	90 85.6%
Q4 - 6:45	ORL	Anderson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	85 11.9%	90 88.1%
Q4 - 6:46	DEN	MISS Smith 27' 3PT Jump Shot	85 12.9%	90 87.1%
Q4 - 7:06	ORL	Anderson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Howard 4 AST)	85 16.9%	90 83.1%
Q4 - 7:21	DEN	Smith Traveling Turnover (P4.T10)	85 25.6%	87 74.4%
Q4 - 7:34	DEN	Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	85 31.8%	87 68.2%
Q4 - 7:37	ORL	MISS Howard Free Throw 2 of 2	85 30.9%	87 69.1%
Q4 - 7:37	ORL	MISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 2	85 27.9%	87 72.1%
Q4 - 7:37	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	85 25.6%	87 74.4%
Q4 - 7:39	ORL	MISS Lewis 27' 3PT Jump Shot	85 29.8%	87 70.2%
Q4 - 7:58	DEN	Nene Foul Turnover (P2.T9)	85 25.6%	87 74.4%
Q4 - 8:03	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	85 31.8%	87 68.2%
Q4 - 8:07	ORL	MISS Howard Layup	85 30.2%	87 69.8%
Q4 - 8:27	DEN	Graham 7' Floating Jump Shot (4 PTS)	85 26.6%	87 73.4%
Q4 - 8:45	DEN	MISS Smith Free Throw Technical	83 21.8%	87 78.2%
Q4 - 8:55	ORL	Barnes Layup (14 PTS) (Howard 3 AST)	83 21.8%	87 78.2%
Q4 - 9:14	DEN	Andersen Slam Dunk (2 PTS) (Anthony 2 AST)	83 27.3%	85 72.7%
Q4 - 9:27	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	81 22.7%	85 77.3%
Q4 - 9:28	ORL	MISS Redick 25' 3PT Jump Shot	81 21.5%	85 78.5%
Q4 - 9:44	DEN	Smith 16' Jump Shot (13 PTS)	81 18.9%	85 81.1%
Q4 - 10:07	ORL	Redick 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Williams 3 AST)	79 16.2%	85 83.8%
Q4 - 10:33	DEN	Smith 14' Jump Shot (11 PTS)	79 23.2%	82 76.8%
Q4 - 10:48	ORL	Redick Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)	77 19.4%	82 80.6%
Q4 - 10:48	ORL	Redick Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)	77 19.8%	81 80.2%
Q4 - 10:53	DEN	Howard STEAL (1 STL)	77 23.2%	80 76.8%
Q4 - 11:09	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	77 27.7%	80 72.3%
Q4 - 11:10	ORL	MISS Barnes Layup	77 26.4%	80 73.6%
Q4 - 11:14	ORL	Redick REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	77 23.7%	80 76.3%
Q4 - 11:17	DEN	MISS Anthony 18' Jump Shot	77 24.9%	80 75.1%
Q4 - 11:44	ORL	Anderson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Redick 8 AST)	77 27.7%	80 72.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	DEN		77 37.1%	77 62.9%
Q3 - 0:02.0	ORL	Anderson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Nelson 3 AST)	77 41.5%	77 58.5%
Q3 - 0:26.0	DEN	Anthony 17' Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Billups 4 AST)	77 52.1%	74 47.9%
Q3 - 0:34.0	DEN	Petro REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	75 46.6%	74 53.4%
Q3 - 0:36.0	DEN	MISS Billups 27' 3PT Jump Shot	75 43.4%	74 56.6%
Q3 - 0:50.0	ORL	Howard Dunk (15 PTS) (Barnes 2 AST)	75 46.6%	74 53.4%
Q3 - 1:08	DEN	Smith 20' Jump Shot (9 PTS)	75 51.1%	72 48.9%
Q3 - 1:32	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	73 45.8%	72 54.2%
Q3 - 1:34	ORL	MISS Lewis Layup	73 44.5%	72 55.5%
Q3 - 1:43	DEN	Lewis STEAL (1 STL)	73 41.4%	72 58.6%
Q3 - 2:07	ORL	Nelson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Howard 2 AST)	73 44.9%	72 55.1%
Q3 - 2:11	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	73 54.3%	69 45.7%
Q3 - 2:13	ORL	MISS Redick 3PT Jump Shot	73 57.5%	69 42.5%
Q3 - 2:24	DEN	Anthony 15' Jump Shot (21 PTS)	73 54.3%	69 45.7%
Q3 - 2:52	ORL	Redick 24' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Lewis 1 AST)	71 49.7%	69 50.3%
Q3 - 2:57	ORL	Barnes REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	71 59.0%	66 41.0%
Q3 - 3:00	DEN	Howard BLOCK (2 BLK)	71 60.4%	66 39.6%
Q3 - 3:12	ORL	Howard Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T7)	71 62.1%	66 37.9%
Q3 - 3:38	DEN	Smith 16' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	71 57.5%	66 42.5%
Q3 - 3:58	ORL	Howard Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T6)	69 53.4%	66 46.6%
Q3 - 4:19	DEN	Anthony Layup (19 PTS)	69 47.8%	66 52.2%
Q3 - 4:42	ORL	Barnes 8' Running Bank Shot (12 PTS)	67 44.2%	66 55.8%
Q3 - 5:03	ORL	Barnes REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	67 46.7%	64 53.3%
Q3 - 5:04	ORL	MISS Nelson 27' 3PT Jump Shot	67 50.0%	64 50.0%
Q3 - 5:12	ORL	Lewis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	67 46.7%	64 53.3%
Q3 - 5:13	DEN	MISS Nene 18' Jump Shot	67 48.2%	64 51.8%
Q3 - 5:19	DEN	Afflalo REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	67 51.5%	64 48.5%
Q3 - 5:21	DEN	MISS Billups 28' 3PT Jump Shot	67 48.2%	64 51.8%
Q3 - 5:35	ORL	Lewis 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Nelson 2 AST)	67 51.5%	64 48.5%
Q3 - 5:50	ORL	Nelson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	67 59.3%	61 40.7%
Q3 - 5:51	DEN	MISS Nene 14' Jump Shot	67 60.7%	61 39.3%
Q3 - 6:06	ORL	Barnes REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	67 62.4%	61 37.6%
Q3 - 6:06	ORL	Barnes Putback Dunk (10 PTS)	67 62.4%	61 37.6%
Q3 - 6:09	ORL	MISS Howard 8' Hook Shot	67 68.4%	59 31.6%
Q3 - 6:27	DEN	Anthony Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T6)	67 65.7%	59 34.3%
Q3 - 6:31	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	67 69.7%	59 30.3%
Q3 - 6:33	DEN	MISS Anthony 17' Jump Shot	67 67.0%	59 33.0%
Q3 - 6:45	DEN	Afflalo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	67 69.7%	59 30.3%
Q3 - 6:48	ORL	MISS Howard Layup	67 68.5%	59 31.5%
Q3 - 6:56	ORL	Redick REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	67 65.8%	59 34.2%
Q3 - 6:58	DEN	MISS Anthony 27' 3PT Jump Shot	67 67.0%	59 33.0%
Q3 - 7:00	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	67 69.7%	59 30.3%
Q3 - 7:02	DEN	MISS Billups 11' Jump Shot	67 65.1%	59 34.9%
Q3 - 7:21	ORL	Lewis 16' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	67 67.8%	59 32.2%
Q3 - 7:39	DEN	Billups 11' Fadeaway Jumper (13 PTS)	67 70.9%	57 29.1%
Q3 - 7:52	ORL	Nelson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T5)	65 67.9%	57 32.1%
Q3 - 8:04	DEN	Petro 7' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Billups 3 AST)	65 63.1%	57 36.9%
Q3 - 8:27	ORL	Nelson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Redick 7 AST)	63 59.8%	57 40.2%
Q3 - 8:45	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	63 66.6%	54 33.4%
Q3 - 8:45	DEN	Anthony Layup (17 PTS)	63 66.6%	54 33.4%
Q3 - 8:50	DEN	MISS Afflalo 26' 3PT Jump Shot	61 60.8%	54 39.2%
Q3 - 8:55	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	61 63.4%	54 36.6%
Q3 - 8:57	DEN	MISS Anthony 25' 3PT Jump Shot	61 60.8%	54 39.2%
Q3 - 9:17	DEN	Afflalo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	61 62.5%	54 37.5%
Q3 - 9:20	ORL	MISS Nelson 26' 3PT Jump Shot	61 61.4%	54 38.6%
Q3 - 9:34	DEN	Billups Layup (11 PTS) (Nene 4 AST)	61 58.9%	54 41.1%
Q3 - 9:48	ORL	Howard 6' Hook Shot (13 PTS) (Redick 6 AST)	59 55.4%	54 44.6%
Q3 - 10:02	DEN	Billups Driving Layup (9 PTS)	59 57.8%	52 42.2%
Q3 - 10:21	ORL	Lewis Foul Turnover (P2.T4)	57 54.4%	52 45.6%
Q3 - 10:36	DEN	Afflalo Driving Layup (9 PTS)	57 50.8%	52 49.2%
Q3 - 10:51	DEN	Afflalo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	55 47.3%	52 52.7%
Q3 - 10:53	ORL	MISS Nelson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	55 46.2%	52 53.8%
Q3 - 11:08	DEN	Nene 19' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Billups 2 AST)	55 43.0%	52 57.0%
Q3 - 11:21	DEN	Afflalo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	53 39.8%	52 60.2%
Q3 - 11:23	ORL	MISS Howard 6' Hook Shot	53 38.8%	52 61.2%
Q3 - 11:42	DEN	Anthony 14' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	53 36.4%	52 63.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ORL		51 33.4%	52 66.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0	DEN	Billups 19' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	51 30.2%	52 69.8%
Q2 - 0:04.0	ORL	Redick Traveling Turnover (P1.T3)	49 27.4%	52 72.6%
Q2 - 0:27.0	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	49 25.3%	52 74.7%
Q2 - 0:29.0	DEN	MISS Billups 15' Turnaround Bank Shot	49 25.9%	52 74.1%
Q2 - 0:41.0	ORL	Nelson Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	49 27.4%	52 72.6%
Q2 - 0:46.0	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	49 25.3%	52 74.7%
Q2 - 0:49.0	DEN	MISS Allen 12' Jump Shot	49 25.9%	52 74.1%
Q2 - 1:04	DEN	Afflalo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	49 27.3%	52 72.7%
Q2 - 1:05	ORL	MISS Barnes Free Throw 2 of 2	49 27.1%	52 72.9%
Q2 - 1:05	ORL	Barnes Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	49 25.4%	52 74.6%
Q2 - 1:17	ORL	MISS Redick Free Throw Technical	49 28.0%	51 72.0%
Q2 - 1:18	DEN	Anthony Driving Layup (13 PTS)	49 28.0%	51 72.0%
Q2 - 1:35	ORL	Barnes Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	47 24.8%	51 75.2%
Q2 - 1:35	ORL	Barnes Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	47 25.4%	50 74.6%
Q2 - 1:35	ORL	MAGIC Rebound	47 28.0%	49 72.0%
Q2 - 1:35	ORL	MISS Howard 7' Hook Shot	47 29.4%	49 70.6%
Q2 - 1:48	DEN	Anthony 19' Jump Shot (11 PTS)	47 28.0%	49 72.0%
Q2 - 2:13	ORL	Barnes Layup (5 PTS) (Redick 5 AST)	45 25.1%	49 74.9%
Q2 - 2:29	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	45 27.5%	47 72.5%
Q2 - 2:30	DEN	MISS Anthony Layup	45 28.3%	47 71.7%
Q2 - 2:53	ORL	Redick 8' Floating Jump Shot (13 PTS)	45 30.2%	47 69.8%
Q2 - 3:09	DEN	Billups 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Nene 3 AST)	45 32.6%	45 67.4%
Q2 - 3:29	ORL	Nelson Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	42 27.8%	45 72.2%
Q2 - 3:37	ORL	Nelson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	42 32.6%	42 67.4%
Q2 - 3:39	DEN	MISS Afflalo 3PT Jump Shot	42 33.6%	42 66.4%
Q2 - 3:49	DEN	Afflalo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	42 35.9%	42 64.1%
Q2 - 3:50	ORL	MISS Lewis 25' 3PT Jump Shot	42 34.9%	42 65.1%
Q2 - 4:01	DEN	Afflalo 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Nene 2 AST)	42 32.4%	42 67.6%
Q2 - 4:22	ORL	Lewis Foul Turnover (P1.T1)	39 27.5%	42 72.5%
Q2 - 4:44	DEN	Allen 16' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Nene 1 AST)	39 24.9%	42 75.1%
Q2 - 5:04	ORL	Gortat Slam Dunk (2 PTS) (Redick 4 AST)	37 23.0%	42 77.0%
Q2 - 5:15	DEN	Allen 19' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Carter 2 AST)	37 25.2%	40 74.8%
Q2 - 5:32	ORL	Anderson 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)	35 23.0%	40 77.0%
Q2 - 5:37	ORL	Lewis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	35 27.5%	37 72.5%
Q2 - 5:39	DEN	MISS Smith Driving Layup	35 28.2%	37 71.8%
Q2 - 5:52	ORL	Anderson Layup (7 PTS)	35 29.9%	37 70.1%
Q2 - 5:53	ORL	Anderson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	35 32.5%	35 67.5%
Q2 - 5:55	ORL	MISS Williams 27' 3PT Jump Shot	35 34.4%	35 65.6%
Q2 - 6:17	DEN	Nene Foul Turnover (P1.T5)	35 32.2%	35 67.8%
Q2 - 6:26	ORL	Redick 15' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Anderson 2 AST)	35 35.3%	35 64.7%
Q2 - 6:41	DEN	Allen Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	35 37.5%	33 62.5%
Q2 - 6:41	DEN	Allen Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	34 37.0%	33 63.0%
Q2 - 7:01	ORL	Redick Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	33 34.8%	33 65.2%
Q2 - 7:01	ORL	Redick Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	33 35.0%	32 65.0%
Q2 - 7:12	ORL	MAGIC Rebound	33 37.3%	31 62.7%
Q2 - 7:12	ORL	MISS Lewis 3PT Jump Shot	33 39.2%	31 60.8%
Q2 - 7:35	ORL	MAGIC Rebound	33 37.3%	31 62.7%
Q2 - 7:36	DEN	MISS Smith 25' 3PT Jump Shot	33 38.1%	31 61.9%
Q2 - 7:41	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	33 40.1%	31 59.9%
Q2 - 7:43	ORL	MISS Redick 23' Jump Shot	33 39.3%	31 60.7%
Q2 - 8:12	DEN	Graham Dunk (2 PTS) (Andersen 1 AST)	33 36.9%	31 63.1%
Q2 - 8:27	ORL	Lewis 10' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)	31 34.5%	31 65.5%
Q2 - 8:46	DEN	Smith Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T4)	31 37.0%	29 63.0%
Q2 - 8:49	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	31 39.6%	29 60.4%
Q2 - 8:52	ORL	MISS Redick Reverse Layup	31 38.8%	29 61.2%
Q2 - 9:08	DEN	Allen 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	31 36.4%	29 63.6%
Q2 - 9:16	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	29 34.1%	29 65.9%
Q2 - 9:19	ORL	MISS Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot	29 33.4%	29 66.6%
Q2 - 9:24	DEN	Williams STEAL (1 STL)	29 31.7%	29 68.3%
Q2 - 9:29	ORL	Redick Layup (7 PTS) (Anderson 1 AST)	29 34.2%	29 65.8%
Q2 - 9:40	DEN	Smith 27' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Anthony 1 AST)	29 36.5%	27 63.5%
Q2 - 10:00	ORL	Anderson 18' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Redick 3 AST)	26 31.8%	27 68.2%
Q2 - 10:14	DEN	Anthony Reverse Layup (9 PTS) (Carter 1 AST)	26 34.0%	25 66.0%
Q2 - 10:28	ORL	Anderson Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	24 31.9%	25 68.1%
Q2 - 10:28	ORL	Anderson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	24 34.2%	24 65.8%
Q2 - 10:28	ORL	Anderson Layup (2 PTS)	24 34.2%	24 65.8%
Q2 - 10:29	ORL	MISS Howard 6' Hook Shot	24 38.2%	22 61.8%
Q2 - 10:40	ORL	Anderson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	24 36.3%	22 63.7%
Q2 - 10:42	DEN	MISS Smith 15' Jump Shot	24 37.2%	22 62.8%
Q2 - 10:53	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	24 39.0%	22 61.0%
Q2 - 10:55	ORL	MISS Anderson 26' 3PT Jump Shot	24 38.2%	22 61.8%
Q2 - 10:58	ORL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	24 36.3%	22 63.7%
Q2 - 11:00	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	24 39.0%	22 61.0%
Q2 - 11:00	DEN	MISS Andersen Putback Dunk	24 37.2%	22 62.8%
Q2 - 11:04	DEN	MISS Anthony 20' Jump Shot	24 37.0%	22 63.0%
Q2 - 11:20	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	24 38.8%	22 61.2%
Q2 - 11:22	ORL	MISS Barnes 25' 3PT Jump Shot	24 38.0%	22 62.0%
Q2 - 11:29	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	24 36.3%	22 63.7%
Q2 - 11:32	ORL	MISS Redick 18' Jump Shot	24 38.0%	22 62.0%
Q2 - 11:46	DEN	Smith Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	24 36.3%	22 63.7%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ORL		24 38.8%	22 61.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	DEN	Anthony 27' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS)	24 36.3%	22 63.7%
Q1 - 0:17.0	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	21 31.3%	22 68.7%
Q1 - 0:18.0	ORL	MISS Nelson 18' Jump Shot	21 30.7%	22 69.3%
Q1 - 0:32.0	DEN	Allen 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	21 29.6%	22 70.4%
Q1 - 0:52.0	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	19 27.2%	22 72.8%
Q1 - 0:55.0	ORL	MISS Redick 26' 3PT Jump Shot	19 26.7%	22 73.3%
Q1 - 1:14	DEN	Nuggets Turnover: Shot Clock (T#1)	19 25.9%	22 74.1%
Q1 - 1:43	ORL	Redick 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Barnes 1 AST)	19 27.2%	22 72.8%
Q1 - 1:58	ORL	Barnes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	19 31.7%	19 68.3%
Q1 - 2:00	DEN	MISS Anthony Layup	19 32.2%	19 67.8%
Q1 - 2:25	ORL	Barnes 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Redick 2 AST)	19 33.4%	19 66.6%
Q1 - 2:42	DEN	Smith 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	19 38.1%	16 61.9%
Q1 - 2:50	DEN	Billups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	17 35.5%	16 64.5%
Q1 - 2:52	ORL	MISS Nelson Layup	17 35.0%	16 65.0%
Q1 - 2:59	ORL	Redick REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	17 33.8%	16 66.2%
Q1 - 3:01	DEN	MISS Billups 18' Jump Shot	17 34.0%	16 66.0%
Q1 - 3:14	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	17 35.5%	16 64.5%
Q1 - 3:14	ORL	MISS Redick 25' 3PT Jump Shot	17 34.9%	16 65.1%
Q1 - 3:19	ORL	Redick REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	17 33.4%	16 66.6%
Q1 - 3:22	DEN	MISS Anthony Layup	17 34.0%	16 66.0%
Q1 - 3:39	ORL	Howard Slam Dunk (11 PTS) (Redick 1 AST)	17 35.5%	16 64.5%
Q1 - 4:11	DEN	Nene Layup (7 PTS) (Afflalo 2 AST)	17 37.0%	14 63.0%
Q1 - 4:24	ORL	Lewis Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	15 35.1%	14 64.9%
Q1 - 4:42	ORL	Lewis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	15 39.1%	11 60.9%
Q1 - 4:44	DEN	MISS Anthony 14' Jump Shot	15 39.8%	11 60.2%
Q1 - 4:56	ORL	Howard Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	15 41.4%	11 58.6%
Q1 - 4:56	ORL	Howard Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	15 42.2%	10 57.8%
Q1 - 5:06	DEN	Billups 8' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	15 42.9%	9 57.1%
Q1 - 5:15	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	13 41.0%	9 59.0%
Q1 - 5:17	ORL	MISS Howard Free Throw 2 of 2	13 40.7%	9 59.3%
Q1 - 5:17	ORL	Howard Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	13 39.7%	9 60.3%
Q1 - 5:33	DEN	Nene Slam Dunk (5 PTS) (Billups 1 AST)	13 40.8%	8 59.2%
Q1 - 5:44	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	11 39.0%	8 61.0%
Q1 - 5:46	ORL	MISS Howard 9' Hook Shot	11 38.3%	8 61.7%
Q1 - 6:09	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	11 36.4%	8 63.6%
Q1 - 6:10	DEN	MISS Nene 12' Jump Shot	11 37.0%	8 63.0%
Q1 - 6:22	DEN	Billups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	11 38.5%	8 61.5%
Q1 - 6:23	ORL	MISS Lewis 26' 3PT Jump Shot	11 37.8%	8 62.2%
Q1 - 6:38	ORL	Barnes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	11 36.4%	8 63.6%
Q1 - 6:40	DEN	MISS Nene Free Throw 2 of 2	11 36.7%	8 63.3%
Q1 - 6:40	DEN	Nene Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	11 37.9%	8 62.1%
Q1 - 6:48	DEN	Afflalo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	10 36.5%	8 63.5%
Q1 - 6:51	DEN	MISS Nene 15' Jump Shot	10 35.1%	8 64.9%
Q1 - 6:54	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	10 36.5%	8 63.5%
Q1 - 6:54	DEN	Howard BLOCK (1 BLK)	10 35.1%	8 64.9%
Q1 - 7:04	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	10 36.2%	8 63.8%
Q1 - 7:05	ORL	MISS Barnes Driving Layup	10 35.5%	8 64.5%
Q1 - 7:21	DEN	Nene 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Afflalo 1 AST)	10 34.1%	8 65.9%
Q1 - 7:37	DEN	Billups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	8 32.4%	8 67.6%
Q1 - 7:39	ORL	MISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 1	8 32.2%	8 67.8%
Q1 - 7:54	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	8 34.2%	6 65.8%
Q1 - 7:56	DEN	MISS Anthony 26' 3PT Jump Shot	8 34.8%	6 65.2%
Q1 - 8:15	DEN	Petro REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	8 35.8%	6 64.2%
Q1 - 8:16	ORL	MISS Nelson 19' Jump Shot	8 35.3%	6 64.7%
Q1 - 8:27	DEN	Anthony 12' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	8 34.0%	6 66.0%
Q1 - 8:46	ORL	Redick 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Nelson 1 AST)	6 32.2%	6 67.8%
Q1 - 9:01	DEN	Afflalo 14' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	6 34.0%	4 66.0%
Q1 - 9:21	ORL	Howard 5' Hook Shot (4 PTS)	4 32.2%	4 67.8%
Q1 - 9:39	DEN	Anthony Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Petro 2 AST)	4 34.0%	2 66.0%
Q1 - 9:56	ORL	Howard Reverse Layup (2 PTS)	2 32.2%	2 67.8%
Q1 - 10:06	ORL	Redick REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	2 33.5%	0 66.5%
Q1 - 10:09	ORL	Lewis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	2 33.5%	0 66.5%
Q1 - 10:09	ORL	MISS Lewis Putback Layup	2 34.8%	0 65.2%
Q1 - 10:11	ORL	MISS Lewis Layup	2 34.8%	0 65.2%
Q1 - 10:30	DEN	Afflalo 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Petro 1 AST)	2 33.6%	0 66.4%
Q1 - 10:51	DEN	Petro REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 32.1%	0 67.9%
Q1 - 10:52	ORL	MISS Carter 28' 3PT Jump Shot	0 31.6%	0 68.4%
Q1 - 11:04	ORL	Nelson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 30.1%	0 69.9%
Q1 - 11:05	DEN	MISS Anthony 11' Jump Shot	0 30.6%	0 69.4%
Q1 - 11:21	DEN	Billups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	0 31.5%	0 68.5%
Q1 - 11:22	ORL	MISS Nelson 16' Jump Shot	0 31.1%	0 68.9%
Q1 - 11:30	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 30.1%	0 69.9%
Q1 - 11:31	DEN	MISS Billups 12' Turnaround Jump Shot	0 30.6%	0 69.4%
Q1 - 11:41	DEN	Billups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 31.6%	0 68.4%
Q1 - 11:42	ORL	MISS Carter 9' Turnaround Fadeaway Shot	0 31.1%	0 68.9%
Q1 - 12:00	ORL	Jump Ball Howard vs. Petro: Tip to Nelson	0 30.1%	0 69.9%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.11 55.7%

ORL

1.13 56.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

65%

ORL

60%

Midrange

DEN

55%

ORL

52%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

7.5

31%

47%

ORL

16.5

38%

57%

Free Throws

DEN

73%

ORL

64%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Anthony	26	48%	13.0 / 27
C. Billups	18	53%	9.0 / 17
Nene	13	59%	6.5 / 11
J. Smith	13	65%	6.5 / 10
M. Allen	10	83%	5.0 / 6
A. Afflalo	9	64%	4.5 / 7
J. Graham	4	100%	2.0 / 2
J. Petro	2	50%	1.0 / 2
C. Andersen	2	50%	1.0 / 2
A. Carter	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Magic

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Redick	23	68%	11.5 / 17
R. Anderson	19	106%	9.5 / 9
D. Howard	18	47%	9.0 / 19
M. Barnes	16	67%	8.0 / 12
J. Nelson	15	54%	7.5 / 14
R. Lewis	10	45%	5.0 / 11
M. Gortat	2	100%	1.0 / 1
V. Carter	0	-	0.0 / 2
J. Williams	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+10

-9

ORL

+12

-9

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.11 55.7%

ORL

1.13 56.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	111.9 111.5	DEN 114.1 ORL 119.8 +5.6
Pace	94.7 92.0	DEN 83.8 ORL 87.3 +3.5
Avg. Poss. Time	14.7 15.7	DEN 17.2 ORL 16.5 +0.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	50.9% 53.6%	DEN 55.6% ORL 56.3% +0.7%
TO %	14.2% 14.8%	DEN 10.5% ORL 9.2% +1.3%
ORB %	26.1% 24.6%	DEN 25.0% ORL 25.0%
FTrt	37.6 34.0	DEN 13.8 ORL 27.8 +14.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	55.0% 53.7%	DEN 42.9% ORL 64.1% +21.2%
STL %	8.7% 6.8%	DEN 3.5% ORL 3.5%
BLK %	7.9% 8.6%	DEN 6.0% ORL 6.3% +0.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.38 and 2.38.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	54.9% 55.8%	DEN 55.7% ORL 56.6% +0.9%
Rim FG%	61.0% 61.6%	DEN 65.0% +5.0% ORL 60.0%
Mid FG%	39.6% 42.3%	DEN 54.5% +2.5% ORL 52.0%
3P %	35.9% 37.5%	DEN 31.3% ORL 37.9% +6.6%
FT %	77.2% 72.4%	DEN 72.7% +9.1% ORL 63.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	37.5% 33.0%	DEN 25.0% ORL 31.6% +6.6%
Mid Att. %	39.8% 32.0%	DEN 55.0% ORL 31.6% +23.4%
3P Att. %	22.7% 35.0%	DEN 20.0% ORL 36.7% +16.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.95 and 2.95.

Game Totals	DEN	ORL
Possessions	85	86
Possession Minutes	24.4	23.6
Points	97	103
Rebounds	39	37
Assists	18	25
Steals	3	3
Blocks	3	4
Turnovers (Team)	9 (1)	9 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (1)	10 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (2)	27 (2)
Field Goals	42-80	39-79
At-the-Rim FG	13-20	15-25
Midrange FG	24-44	13-25
2-Point FG	37-64	28-50
3-Point FG	5-16	11-29
Free Throws	8-11	14-22
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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4 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 26	41.3	26	48%	8	2	1	0	1	2	2	6	3-4	75%	10-20	50%	1-5	20%
Nene F · 6'11" 250 · 28	36.1	13	59%	6	4	1	1	2	4	2	4	3-4	75%	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 34	34.8	18	53%	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	5	0-0	-	6-12	50%	2-5	40%
Arron Afflalo G · 6'5" 210 · 24	25.6	9	64%	8	2	0	0	0	1	2	6	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-3	33%
Johan Petro C · 7'0" 247 · 24	20.3	2	50%	3	2	1	1	1	5	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
JR Smith G-F · 6'6" 225 · 25	22.4	13	65%	2	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	0-1	0%	5-7	71%	1-3	33%
Chris Andersen F-C · 6'10" 245 · 32	18.3	2	50%	5	1	0	0	1	3	2	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Malik Allen F · 6'10" 255 · 32	18.1	10	83%	1	0	0	1	0	3	0	1	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Anthony Carter G · 6'1" 190 · 35	13.2	0	0%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Joey Graham F · 6'7" 230 · 28	9.9	4	100%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Ty Lawson G · 5'11" 195 · 22
Renaldo Balkman F · 6'8" 225 · 26
Kenyon Martin #4 · F · 6'9" 225 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	56%	39	18	3	3	9	0	9	30	8-11	73%	37-64	58%	5-16	31%

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4 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 26	41.3	26	48%	8	2	1	0	1	2	2	6	3-4	75%	10-20	50%	1-5	20%
Nene F · 6'11" 250 · 28	36.1	13	59%	6	4	1	1	2	4	2	4	3-4	75%	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 34	34.8	18	53%	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	5	0-0	-	6-12	50%	2-5	40%
Arron Afflalo G · 6'5" 210 · 24	25.6	9	64%	8	2	0	0	0	1	2	6	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-3	33%
Johan Petro C · 7'0" 247 · 24	20.3	2	50%	3	2	1	1	1	5	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
JR Smith G-F · 6'6" 225 · 25	22.4	13	65%	2	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	0-1	0%	5-7	71%	1-3	33%
Chris Andersen F-C · 6'10" 245 · 32	18.3	2	50%	5	1	0	0	1	3	2	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Malik Allen F · 6'10" 255 · 32	18.1	10	83%	1	0	0	1	0	3	0	1	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Anthony Carter G · 6'1" 190 · 35	13.2	0	0%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Joey Graham F · 6'7" 230 · 28	9.9	4	100%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Ty Lawson G · 5'11" 195 · 22
Renaldo Balkman F · 6'8" 225 · 26
Kenyon Martin #4 · F · 6'9" 225 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	56%	39	18	3	3	9	0	9	30	8-11	73%	37-64	58%	5-16	31%

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2 Orlando Magic

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dwight Howard C · 6'11" 265 · 24	42.7	18	47%	11	5	1	2	2	2	4	7	4-9	44%	7-15	47%	0-0	-
Rashard Lewis F · 6'10" 235 · 31	37.9	10	45%	5	1	1	2	2	5	1	4	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	1-5	20%
Matt Barnes F · 6'7" 226 · 30	37.4	16	67%	5	2	0	0	0	3	2	3	3-4	75%	5-7	71%	1-3	33%
Jameer Nelson G · 6'0" 190 · 28	35.6	15	54%	3	4	0	0	4	2	0	3	1-1	100%	4-8	50%	2-6	33%
Vince Carter G · 6'6" 220 · 33	1.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
JJ Redick G-F · 6'4" 200 · 26	46.4	23	68%	7	8	0	0	1	0	1	6	4-6	67%	5-8	63%	3-7	43%
Ryan Anderson F · 6'10" 240 · 22	20.1	19	106%	5	2	0	0	0	2	2	3	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	4-5	80%
Jason Williams G · 6'1" 180 · 34	12.3	0	0%	1	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Marcin Gortat C · 6'11" 240 · 26	5.3	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Brandon Bass F · 6'8" 250 · 25	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Anthony Johnson G · 6'3" 195 · 35
Adonal Foyle C · 6'10" 270 · 35
Mickael Pietrus #20 · F · 6'6" 215 · 28	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	57%	37	25	3	4	9	0	10	27	14-22	64%	28-50	56%	11-29	38%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE