FinalWin Prob.pScore
147%94
95
453%95
104
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo MIA
106.78989.9
ORL logo ORL
114.39190.1

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

MagicHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

MagicHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIAORL
Q4 - 0:00.0ORL95
0%
104
100%
Q4 - 0:03.0ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:15)95
0.1%
104
99.9%
Q4 - 0:04.0MIAMISS Wade 21' Jump Shot95
0.1%
104
99.9%
Q4 - 0:13.0MIAWade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)95
0.1%
104
99.9%
Q4 - 0:14.0ORLMISS Lewis Free Throw 2 of 295
0.1%
104
99.9%
Q4 - 0:14.0ORLLewis Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)95
0.1%
104
99.9%
Q4 - 0:15.0MIAJames 1' Driving Dunk (25 PTS)95
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 0:18.0ORLRedick Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)93
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 0:18.0ORLRedick Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)93
0.1%
102
99.9%
Q4 - 0:20.0MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)93
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 0:20.0MIAMISS James Free Throw 1 of 292
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 0:22.0ORLHoward Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T13)92
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 0:33.0ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:14)92
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 0:34.0MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 2 of 292
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 0:34.0MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 292
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 0:39.0ORLGortat Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)92
0.2%
101
99.8%
Q4 - 0:39.0ORLGortat Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)92
0.2%
100
99.8%
Q4 - 0:39.0MIAHouse Free Throw Technical (7 PTS)92
0.4%
99
99.6%
Q4 - 0:56.0ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:13)91
0.4%
99
99.6%
Q4 - 0:58.0MIAMISS Jones 27' 3PT Jump Shot91
0.5%
99
99.5%
Q4 - 1:06ORLNelson Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)91
1.0%
99
99.0%
Q4 - 1:06ORLNelson Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)91
1.1%
98
98.9%
Q4 - 1:19MIAJames Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P3.T10)91
2.4%
97
97.6%
Q4 - 1:27MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)91
5.0%
97
95.0%
Q4 - 1:28ORLMISS Nelson Free Throw 2 of 291
4.7%
97
95.3%
Q4 - 1:28ORLMISS Nelson Free Throw 1 of 291
3.2%
97
96.8%
Q4 - 1:43MIAJames 2' Driving Layup (22 PTS)91
3.6%
97
96.4%
Q4 - 1:56ORLNelson 21' Jump Shot (15 PTS)89
2.4%
97
97.6%
Q4 - 2:15ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:12)89
3.6%
95
96.4%
Q4 - 2:16MIAMISS House 24' 3PT Jump Shot89
4.3%
95
95.7%
Q4 - 2:26MIABosh REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)89
6.9%
95
93.1%
Q4 - 2:28ORLMISS Redick 29' 3PT Jump Shot89
5.6%
95
94.4%
Q4 - 2:49ORLNelson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)89
3.5%
95
96.5%
Q4 - 2:51MIAMISS James 23' Jump Shot89
5.9%
95
94.1%
Q4 - 3:12ORLRedick 16' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Nelson 14 AST)89
8.3%
95
91.7%
Q4 - 3:23ORLPietrus REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)89
11.0%
93
89.0%
Q4 - 3:24MIAMISS House 26' 3PT Jump Shot89
12.9%
93
87.1%
Q4 - 3:29MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)89
18.7%
93
81.3%
Q4 - 3:31ORLMISS Lewis 2' Driving Layup89
20.2%
93
79.8%
Q4 - 3:37ORLRedick REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)89
15.8%
93
84.2%
Q4 - 3:38MIAMISS Wade 17' Jump Shot89
17.5%
93
82.5%
Q4 - 3:54ORLNelson 2' Driving Layup (13 PTS)89
21.5%
93
78.5%
Q4 - 4:03ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:11)89
28.0%
91
72.0%
Q4 - 4:06MIAMISS Bosh 1' Alley Oop Layup89
30.6%
91
69.4%
Q4 - 4:21ORLNelson 15' Jump Shot (11 PTS)89
37.0%
91
63.0%
Q4 - 4:35ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:10)89
45.7%
89
54.3%
Q4 - 4:36MIAMISS Bosh Free Throw 2 of 289
47.1%
89
52.9%
Q4 - 4:36MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)89
53.9%
89
46.1%
Q4 - 4:48ORLHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)88
46.5%
89
53.5%
Q4 - 4:48ORLMISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 288
50.0%
88
50.0%
Q4 - 5:03ORLRedick REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)88
46.2%
88
53.8%
Q4 - 5:04MIAMISS Ilgauskas 18' Jump Shot88
48.9%
88
51.1%
Q4 - 5:22ORLHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)88
55.2%
88
44.8%
Q4 - 5:22ORLMISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 288
58.2%
87
41.8%
Q4 - 5:34ORLLewis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)88
54.7%
87
45.3%
Q4 - 5:35MIAMISS Wade 26' 3PT Jump Shot88
57.4%
87
42.6%
Q4 - 5:50ORLMAGIC Turnover: Shot Clock (T#12)88
63.5%
87
36.5%
Q4 - 5:50ORLMAGIC Rebound88
54.7%
87
45.3%
Q4 - 5:50ORLMISS Pietrus 31' 3PT Jump Shot88
60.9%
87
39.1%
Q4 - 6:13ORLBass REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)88
54.2%
87
45.8%
Q4 - 6:15MIAMISS Ilgauskas 21' Jump Shot88
56.6%
87
43.4%
Q4 - 6:24MIAWade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)88
62.1%
87
37.9%
Q4 - 6:25ORLMISS Nelson 25' 3PT Jump Shot88
59.8%
87
40.2%
Q4 - 6:48MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 1 (18 PTS)88
54.2%
87
45.8%
Q4 - 6:53MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)85
39.6%
87
60.4%
Q4 - 6:54ORLMISS Redick 24' 3PT Jump Shot85
37.2%
87
62.8%
Q4 - 7:11MIAWade 1' Driving Dunk (15 PTS)85
33.5%
87
66.5%
Q4 - 7:34ORLNelson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Pietrus 1 AST)83
28.0%
87
72.0%
Q4 - 7:41ORLBass REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)83
39.9%
84
60.1%
Q4 - 7:42ORLMISS Nelson 21' Jump Shot83
45.1%
84
54.9%
Q4 - 7:59MIAHouse 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Wade 5 AST)83
39.9%
84
60.1%
Q4 - 8:06ORLHoward Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T11)80
29.3%
84
70.7%
Q4 - 8:27MIAIlgauskas 13' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Wade 4 AST)80
24.3%
84
75.7%
Q4 - 8:49MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)78
19.7%
84
80.3%
Q4 - 8:51ORLMISS Howard Free Throw 2 of 278
19.2%
84
80.8%
Q4 - 8:51ORLMISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 278
17.2%
84
82.8%
Q4 - 9:06MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)78
17.7%
84
82.3%
Q4 - 9:06MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)77
17.0%
84
83.0%
Q4 - 9:17MIAHeat Rebound76
14.4%
84
85.6%
Q4 - 9:18MIAMISS Bosh 7' Fadeaway Jumper76
12.5%
84
87.5%
Q4 - 9:36ORLPietrus 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)76
14.3%
84
85.7%
Q4 - 9:50MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 1 (20 PTS)76
21.3%
81
78.7%
Q4 - 10:02ORLLewis 15' Jump Shot (13 PTS)73
15.6%
81
84.4%
Q4 - 10:09ORLLewis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)73
18.7%
79
81.3%
Q4 - 10:10ORLMISS Pietrus 25' 3PT Jump Shot73
21.3%
79
78.8%
Q4 - 10:21ORLGortat REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)73
18.7%
79
81.3%
Q4 - 10:23ORLMISS Redick 25' 3PT Jump Shot73
21.2%
79
78.8%
Q4 - 10:36MIALewis STEAL (2 STL)73
18.7%
79
81.3%
Q4 - 10:58ORLRedick 24' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS)73
22.4%
79
77.6%
Q4 - 11:20MIABosh Foul Turnover (P2.T8)73
32.0%
76
68.0%
Q4 - 11:25ORLLewis 18' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Redick 5 AST)73
36.8%
76
63.2%
Q4 - 11:47MIAMagloire 1' Dunk (2 PTS) (James 4 AST)73
41.9%
74
58.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0ORL71
36.7%
74
63.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9)71
31.9%
74
68.1%
Q3 - 0:01.0MIAMISS Jones 26' 3PT Jump Shot71
34.1%
74
65.9%
Q3 - 0:21.0ORLDuhon Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T10)71
37.1%
74
62.9%
Q3 - 0:30.0ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)71
32.8%
74
67.2%
Q3 - 0:31.0MIAMISS James 20' Jump Shot71
34.1%
74
65.9%
Q3 - 0:41.0ORLHoward Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)71
37.1%
74
62.9%
Q3 - 1:00MIAJames 2' Driving Layup (20 PTS)71
32.8%
74
67.2%
Q3 - 1:13MIAHouse Free Throw Technical (3 PTS)69
28.7%
74
71.3%
Q3 - 1:13ORLWilliams Traveling Turnover (P1.T8)68
24.8%
74
75.2%
Q3 - 1:31ORLMAGIC Rebound68
21.6%
74
78.4%
Q3 - 1:31MIAMISS Wade 26' 3PT Jump Shot68
22.5%
74
77.5%
Q3 - 1:35MIAMagloire REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)68
24.8%
74
75.2%
Q3 - 1:36MIAMISS James 18' Jump Shot68
22.5%
74
77.5%
Q3 - 1:53MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)68
24.8%
74
75.2%
Q3 - 1:54ORLMISS Howard Free Throw 2 of 268
24.3%
74
75.7%
Q3 - 1:54ORLHoward Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)68
22.5%
74
77.5%
Q3 - 1:57MIABosh 8' Running Jump Shot (17 PTS)68
25.1%
73
74.9%
Q3 - 2:21ORLBass 16' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Redick 4 AST)66
22.2%
73
77.8%
Q3 - 2:40MIAAnthony 9' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (House 2 AST)66
25.6%
71
74.4%
Q3 - 3:01ORLHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)64
23.3%
71
76.7%
Q3 - 3:01ORLHoward Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)64
24.5%
70
75.5%
Q3 - 3:06ORLBass REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)64
26.5%
69
73.5%
Q3 - 3:08MIAMISS Wade 3PT Jump Shot64
27.6%
69
72.4%
Q3 - 3:22ORLDuhon Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T7)64
30.3%
69
69.7%
Q3 - 3:31MIABass STEAL (1 STL)64
26.4%
69
73.6%
Q3 - 3:44MIAJames Free Throw Technical (18 PTS)64
30.3%
69
69.7%
Q3 - 3:44ORLNelson Foul Turnover (P5.T6)63
26.6%
69
73.4%
Q3 - 4:01MIAWade 16' Running Jump Shot (11 PTS)63
23.4%
69
76.6%
Q3 - 4:25ORLHoward 8' Jump Hook Shot (19 PTS)61
20.9%
69
79.1%
Q3 - 4:46MIAArroyo 16' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Bosh 2 AST)61
23.4%
67
76.6%
Q3 - 5:02ORLNelson 9' Fadeaway Jumper (6 PTS)59
21.4%
67
78.6%
Q3 - 5:16MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)59
24.0%
65
76.0%
Q3 - 5:16MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)58
23.5%
65
76.5%
Q3 - 5:16MIABosh REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)57
21.3%
65
78.7%
Q3 - 5:17MIAMISS James 13' Turnaround Fadeaway Shot57
19.2%
65
80.8%
Q3 - 5:40ORLRedick 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Nelson 13 AST)57
21.3%
65
78.7%
Q3 - 5:59MIABosh 20' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (James 3 AST)57
27.1%
62
72.9%
Q3 - 6:08MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)55
25.1%
62
74.9%
Q3 - 6:09ORLMISS Howard 13' Jump Shot55
24.1%
62
75.9%
Q3 - 6:27ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)55
21.9%
62
78.1%
Q3 - 6:28MIAMISS Ilgauskas 21' Jump Shot55
22.9%
62
77.1%
Q3 - 6:45ORLHoward 3' Layup (17 PTS) (Nelson 12 AST)55
25.1%
62
74.9%
Q3 - 6:52ORLRichardson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)55
27.9%
60
72.1%
Q3 - 6:54MIAMISS Wade 22' Jump Shot55
29.0%
60
71.0%
Q3 - 7:11ORLHoward 1' Slam Dunk (15 PTS) (Nelson 11 AST)55
31.9%
60
68.1%
Q3 - 7:37MIAJames 25' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Arroyo 5 AST)55
35.2%
58
64.8%
Q3 - 7:41MIABosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)52
28.6%
58
71.4%
Q3 - 7:43MIAWade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)52
28.6%
58
71.4%
Q3 - 7:43MIAMISS Wade 2' Layup52
26.4%
58
73.6%
Q3 - 7:44MIAMISS Arroyo 25' 3PT Jump Shot52
26.4%
58
73.6%
Q3 - 8:04ORLRedick Free Throw 3 of 3 (10 PTS)52
29.1%
58
70.9%
Q3 - 8:04ORLRedick Free Throw 2 of 3 (9 PTS)52
29.4%
57
70.6%
Q3 - 8:04ORLRedick Free Throw 1 of 3 (8 PTS)52
29.8%
56
70.2%
Q3 - 8:09MIALewis STEAL (1 STL)52
35.4%
55
64.6%
Q3 - 8:21MIAWade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)52
39.2%
55
60.8%
Q3 - 8:22ORLMISS Nelson 20' Jump Shot52
38.0%
55
62.0%
Q3 - 8:39MIABosh 9' Running Hook Shot (11 PTS) (Arroyo 4 AST)52
35.4%
55
64.6%
Q3 - 8:43MIAArroyo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)50
32.2%
55
67.8%
Q3 - 8:45ORLMISS Howard 2' Layup50
31.2%
55
68.8%
Q3 - 9:01MIAArroyo 20' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Ilgauskas 1 AST)50
29.2%
55
70.8%
Q3 - 9:11MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)48
26.3%
55
73.7%
Q3 - 9:13ORLMISS Howard 6' Hook Shot48
25.4%
55
74.6%
Q3 - 9:26ORLLewis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)48
23.5%
55
76.5%
Q3 - 9:28MIAMISS Wade 8' Jump Shot48
24.3%
55
75.7%
Q3 - 9:41ORLHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)48
26.3%
55
73.7%
Q3 - 9:41ORLHoward Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)48
27.3%
54
72.7%
Q3 - 10:00MIAWade 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Arroyo 3 AST)48
29.2%
53
70.8%
Q3 - 10:05MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)45
24.3%
53
75.7%
Q3 - 10:06MIAMISS Bosh 18' Jump Shot45
22.4%
53
77.6%
Q3 - 10:22ORLHoward 13' Jump Bank Shot (11 PTS)45
24.2%
53
75.8%
Q3 - 10:44ORLMAGIC Rebound45
26.8%
51
73.2%
Q3 - 10:45MIAMISS Bosh 13' Jump Shot45
27.7%
51
72.3%
Q3 - 10:54MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)45
29.8%
51
70.2%
Q3 - 10:55ORLMISS Redick 27' 3PT Jump Shot45
28.8%
51
71.2%
Q3 - 11:06ORLRichardson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)45
27.4%
51
72.6%
Q3 - 11:08MIAMISS Wade 13' Fadeaway Jumper45
28.3%
51
71.7%
Q3 - 11:17ORLNelson Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T5)45
30.4%
51
69.6%
Q3 - 11:31MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)45
27.4%
51
72.6%
Q3 - 11:31MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)44
26.8%
51
73.2%
Q3 - 11:45MIAWade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)43
24.9%
51
75.1%
Q3 - 11:47ORLMISS Richardson 24' 3PT Jump Shot43
24.0%
51
76.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA43
22.2%
51
77.8%
Q2 - 0:00.0ORLRichardson Free Throw 3 of 3 (6 PTS)43
24.9%
51
75.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0ORLRichardson Free Throw 2 of 3 (5 PTS)43
25.5%
50
74.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0ORLRichardson Free Throw 1 of 3 (4 PTS)43
26.2%
49
73.8%
Q2 - 0:09.0MIAJames 19' Jump Shot (14 PTS)43
31.3%
48
68.7%
Q2 - 0:27.0MIAWade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)41
27.9%
48
72.1%
Q2 - 0:28.0ORLMISS Howard Free Throw 2 of 241
27.6%
48
72.4%
Q2 - 0:28.0ORLMISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 241
26.2%
48
73.8%
Q2 - 0:29.0ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)41
25.8%
48
74.2%
Q2 - 0:31.0ORLMISS Redick 3' Layup41
27.3%
48
72.7%
Q2 - 0:42.0MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)41
25.8%
48
74.2%
Q2 - 0:42.0MIAMISS James Free Throw 1 of 240
25.3%
48
74.7%
Q2 - 0:50.0ORLRichardson Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)40
25.3%
48
74.7%
Q2 - 0:50.0ORLMISS Richardson Free Throw 1 of 240
25.9%
47
74.1%
Q2 - 1:09MIABosh 17' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Arroyo 2 AST)40
26.4%
47
73.6%
Q2 - 1:24ORLRedick 16' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Nelson 10 AST)38
23.3%
47
76.7%
Q2 - 1:33ORLNelson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)38
26.4%
45
73.6%
Q2 - 1:34MIAMISS Wade 22' Jump Shot38
26.9%
45
73.1%
Q2 - 1:50ORLNelson Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T4)38
28.2%
45
71.8%
Q2 - 2:11MIAJames 2' Driving Layup (11 PTS)38
26.3%
45
73.7%
Q2 - 2:26ORLBass 1' Slam Dunk (16 PTS) (Howard 1 AST)36
24.0%
45
76.0%
Q2 - 2:29ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)36
26.3%
43
73.7%
Q2 - 2:30ORLMISS Nelson 11' Jump Shot36
28.1%
43
71.9%
Q2 - 2:50MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)36
26.3%
43
73.7%
Q2 - 2:50MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)35
25.8%
43
74.2%
Q2 - 2:53MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)34
24.0%
43
76.0%
Q2 - 2:54ORLMISS Lewis 5' Driving Hook Shot34
23.3%
43
76.7%
Q2 - 2:58ORLMAGIC Rebound34
21.7%
43
78.3%
Q2 - 2:59ORLMISS Nelson 2' Driving Layup34
23.3%
43
76.7%
Q2 - 3:17MIAArroyo 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (James 2 AST)34
22.1%
43
77.9%
Q2 - 3:30ORLNelson Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T3)31
18.5%
43
81.5%
Q2 - 3:32MIANelson STEAL (1 STL)31
16.4%
43
83.6%
Q2 - 3:54ORLBass 21' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Nelson 9 AST)31
18.4%
43
81.6%
Q2 - 4:06ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)31
20.5%
41
79.5%
Q2 - 4:07MIAMISS James 26' 3PT Jump Shot31
21.2%
41
78.8%
Q2 - 4:27ORLLewis 2' Driving Layup (9 PTS) (Nelson 8 AST)31
22.8%
41
77.2%
Q2 - 4:37ORLBass REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)31
24.7%
39
75.3%
Q2 - 4:38MIAMISS Magloire 7' Jump Hook Shot31
25.5%
39
74.5%
Q2 - 4:57ORLHoward 5' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Redick 3 AST)31
27.3%
39
72.7%
Q2 - 5:10MIAJames 21' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Bosh 1 AST)31
30.2%
37
69.8%
Q2 - 5:20MIAMagloire REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)29
27.7%
37
72.3%
Q2 - 5:20MIAMISS Bosh 3' Layup29
26.1%
37
73.9%
Q2 - 5:22MIABosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)29
27.7%
37
72.3%
Q2 - 5:23MIAMISS House 24' 3PT Jump Shot29
26.1%
37
73.9%
Q2 - 5:42ORLBass 16' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Redick 2 AST)29
27.7%
37
72.3%
Q2 - 5:54MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)29
30.1%
35
69.9%
Q2 - 5:54MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)28
29.7%
35
70.3%
Q2 - 6:08ORLLewis 26' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Bass 1 AST)27
28.4%
35
71.6%
Q2 - 6:15ORLBass REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)27
32.8%
32
67.2%
Q2 - 6:16ORLMISS Bass 11' Jump Shot27
34.9%
32
65.1%
Q2 - 6:28ORLDuhon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)27
32.8%
32
67.2%
Q2 - 6:29MIAMISS Jones 26' 3PT Jump Shot27
33.7%
32
66.3%
Q2 - 6:49MIAHeat Rebound27
35.8%
32
64.2%
Q2 - 6:51ORLMISS Lewis 10' Turnaround Fadeaway Shot27
34.9%
32
65.1%
Q2 - 7:07MIAHouse 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Wade 3 AST)27
33.4%
32
66.6%
Q2 - 7:25ORLBass 2' Slam Dunk (10 PTS) (Duhon 1 AST)25
31.0%
32
69.0%
Q2 - 7:38ORLRedick REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)25
33.3%
30
66.7%
Q2 - 7:41MIAMISS Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot25
34.1%
30
65.9%
Q2 - 7:44MIAWade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)25
36.0%
30
64.0%
Q2 - 7:46MIAGortat BLOCK (1 BLK)25
34.1%
30
65.9%
Q2 - 7:57MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)25
36.0%
30
64.0%
Q2 - 7:58ORLMISS Redick 25' 3PT Jump Shot25
35.1%
30
64.9%
Q2 - 8:07ORLMAGIC Rebound25
33.8%
30
66.2%
Q2 - 8:07ORLMISS Lewis 10' Jump Shot25
35.6%
30
64.4%
Q2 - 8:15ORLGortat REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)25
33.8%
30
66.2%
Q2 - 8:16MIAMISS Wade 2' Driving Layup25
34.6%
30
65.4%
Q2 - 8:29ORLRedick Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)25
36.3%
30
63.7%
Q2 - 8:29ORLRedick Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)25
36.6%
29
63.4%
Q2 - 8:33ORLRedick REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)25
38.8%
28
61.2%
Q2 - 8:36MIAMISS Wade 2' Driving Layup25
39.6%
28
60.4%
Q2 - 8:46MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)25
41.4%
28
58.6%
Q2 - 8:48ORLMISS Duhon 30' 3PT Jump Shot25
40.6%
28
59.4%
Q2 - 9:13ORLMAGIC Rebound25
38.9%
28
61.1%
Q2 - 9:15MIAMISS House 21' Jump Shot25
39.6%
28
60.4%
Q2 - 9:35MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)25
41.5%
28
58.5%
Q2 - 9:36ORLMISS Redick 11' Jump Shot25
40.7%
28
59.3%
Q2 - 9:57MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)25
38.9%
28
61.1%
Q2 - 10:02ORLRedick Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)22
34.3%
28
65.7%
Q2 - 10:26MIAHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)22
31.8%
28
68.2%
Q2 - 10:26MIAHoward Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)21
31.3%
28
68.7%
Q2 - 10:49MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)20
29.8%
28
70.2%
Q2 - 10:51ORLMISS Bass 12' Jump Shot20
29.1%
28
70.9%
Q2 - 11:14MIAIlgauskas 18' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (House 1 AST)20
27.8%
28
72.2%
Q2 - 11:19MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)18
25.9%
28
74.1%
Q2 - 11:21MIAMISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot18
24.5%
28
75.5%
Q2 - 11:43ORLBass 14' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Redick 1 AST)18
25.9%
28
74.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0ORL18
27.8%
26
72.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0ORLMAGIC Rebound18
27.8%
26
72.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0ORLMISS Bass 13' Jump Shot18
29.3%
26
70.7%
Q1 - 0:00.0ORLBass REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)18
27.8%
26
72.2%
Q1 - 0:01.0ORLMISS Nelson 21' Jump Shot18
29.5%
26
70.5%
Q1 - 0:22.0ORLNelson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)18
28.4%
26
71.6%
Q1 - 0:23.0ORLMISS Richardson 26' 3PT Jump Shot18
29.5%
26
70.5%
Q1 - 0:38.0MIAAnthony Foul Turnover (P1.T4)18
28.4%
26
71.6%
Q1 - 0:46.0ORLRichardson 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Nelson 7 AST)18
30.0%
26
70.0%
Q1 - 1:01MIAJames 3' Driving Layup (2 PTS)18
33.1%
24
66.9%
Q1 - 1:15ORLBass 17' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Nelson 6 AST)16
30.5%
24
69.5%
Q1 - 1:30MIAHoward Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T3)16
33.0%
22
67.0%
Q1 - 1:30MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)16
34.6%
22
65.4%
Q1 - 1:32MIAMISS Howard 15' Jump Shot16
33.5%
22
66.5%
Q1 - 1:57ORLBass 3' Dunk (4 PTS) (Nelson 5 AST)16
34.6%
22
65.4%
Q1 - 2:21ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)16
37.5%
20
62.5%
Q1 - 2:23MIAMISS James 9' Jump Shot16
38.1%
20
61.9%
Q1 - 2:47ORLBass 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Nelson 4 AST)16
39.4%
20
60.6%
Q1 - 3:10MIAHoward Traveling Turnover (P1.T2)16
41.9%
18
58.1%
Q1 - 3:32ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)16
44.2%
18
55.8%
Q1 - 3:32ORLHoward 1' Layup (7 PTS)16
44.2%
18
55.8%
Q1 - 3:35ORLMISS Nelson 3' Driving Layup16
48.0%
16
52.0%
Q1 - 3:46ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)16
46.4%
16
53.6%
Q1 - 3:48MIAMISS Arroyo 19' Jump Shot16
47.1%
16
52.9%
Q1 - 4:10MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)16
48.5%
16
51.5%
Q1 - 4:11MIAMISS James 19' Jump Shot16
46.9%
16
53.1%
Q1 - 4:19MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)16
48.5%
16
51.5%
Q1 - 4:20MIAMISS Wade 21' Jump Shot16
46.9%
16
53.1%
Q1 - 4:40ORLNelson 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS)16
48.6%
16
51.4%
Q1 - 5:11ORLLewis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)16
50.2%
14
49.8%
Q1 - 5:13MIAMISS Arroyo 21' Jump Shot16
51.0%
14
49.0%
Q1 - 5:23MIAArroyo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)16
52.6%
14
47.4%
Q1 - 5:25ORLMISS Lewis 10' Jump Shot16
51.9%
14
48.1%
Q1 - 5:34MIARedick STEAL (1 STL)16
50.2%
14
49.8%
Q1 - 5:43MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)16
52.6%
14
47.4%
Q1 - 5:45ORLMISS Howard 5' Turnaround Jump Shot16
51.9%
14
48.1%
Q1 - 6:05MIAAnthony 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Wade 2 AST)16
50.1%
14
49.9%
Q1 - 6:19ORLLewis Free Throw 3 of 3 (4 PTS)14
48.1%
14
51.9%
Q1 - 6:19ORLMISS Lewis Free Throw 2 of 314
48.5%
13
51.5%
Q1 - 6:19ORLLewis Free Throw 1 of 3 (3 PTS)14
46.8%
13
53.2%
Q1 - 6:42MIAIlgauskas 2' Driving Layup (3 PTS)14
50.1%
12
49.9%
Q1 - 6:53ORLHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)12
48.2%
12
51.8%
Q1 - 6:53ORLMISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 212
48.9%
11
51.1%
Q1 - 7:04MIAWade 2' Layup (4 PTS)12
47.9%
11
52.1%
Q1 - 7:28ORLRedick 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Lewis 1 AST)10
46.1%
11
53.9%
Q1 - 7:43ORLRichardson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)10
50.0%
8
50.0%
Q1 - 7:44MIAMISS James 24' 3PT Jump Shot10
50.6%
8
49.4%
Q1 - 7:51ORLLewis 13' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Nelson 3 AST)10
52.2%
8
47.8%
Q1 - 8:15MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)10
54.0%
6
46.0%
Q1 - 8:30ORLNelson Foul Turnover (P1.T1)7
50.0%
6
50.0%
Q1 - 8:43MIAWade 2' Layup (2 PTS)7
48.1%
6
51.9%
Q1 - 8:47MIAArroyo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)5
46.0%
6
54.0%
Q1 - 8:49ORLMISS Richardson 25' 3PT Jump Shot5
45.4%
6
54.6%
Q1 - 9:03MIAArroyo 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)5
44.5%
6
55.5%
Q1 - 9:28ORLHoward 1' Slam Dunk (4 PTS) (Nelson 2 AST)3
42.5%
6
57.5%
Q1 - 9:35ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)3
44.4%
4
55.6%
Q1 - 9:37MIAMISS Ilgauskas 19' Jump Shot3
45.0%
4
55.0%
Q1 - 9:59ORLHoward 2' Alley Oop Layup (2 PTS) (Nelson 1 AST)3
46.3%
4
53.7%
Q1 - 10:18MIAIlgauskas Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)3
48.0%
2
52.0%
Q1 - 10:18MIAMISS Ilgauskas Free Throw 1 of 22
47.6%
2
52.4%
Q1 - 10:18MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)2
48.2%
2
51.8%
Q1 - 10:18MIAHoward BLOCK (1 BLK)2
46.8%
2
53.2%
Q1 - 10:37ORLNelson 1' Driving Layup (2 PTS)2
48.3%
2
51.7%
Q1 - 10:45ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)2
49.8%
0
50.2%
Q1 - 10:47MIAMISS Wade 21' Fadeaway Jumper2
50.4%
0
49.6%
Q1 - 10:55MIAArroyo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
51.9%
0
48.1%
Q1 - 10:56ORLMISS Howard 2' Layup2
51.2%
0
48.8%
Q1 - 11:09ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
49.6%
0
50.4%
Q1 - 11:10MIAMISS James 8' Fadeaway Jumper2
50.1%
0
49.9%
Q1 - 11:24MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
51.2%
0
48.8%
Q1 - 11:26ORLMISS Nelson 26' 3PT Jump Shot2
50.7%
0
49.3%
Q1 - 11:43MIABosh 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (James 1 AST)2
49.6%
0
50.4%
Q1 - 12:00ORLJump Ball Howard vs. Ilgauskas: Tip to Arroyo0
47.9%
0
52.1%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.01 50.5%
ORL
1.13 56.5%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
13
18
72%
ORL
14
22
64%
Midrange
MIA
17
46
37%
ORL
16
29
55%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
4
6.0
18
22%
33%
ORL
6
9.0
19
32%
47%
Free Throws
MIA
23
29
79%
ORL
26
39
67%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
L. James2560%12.5 / 21
C. Bosh2170%10.5 / 15
D. Wade1838%9.0 / 24
C. Arroyo964%4.5 / 7
Z. Ilgauskas744%3.5 / 8
E. House758%3.5 / 6
J. Anthony4100%2.0 / 2
J. Howard250%1.0 / 2
J. Magloire250%1.0 / 2
J. Jones0-0.0 / 5
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
ORL logo Magic
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
D. Howard2457%12.0 / 21
J. Redick2067%10.0 / 15
B. Bass1875%9.0 / 12
J. Nelson1750%8.5 / 17
R. Lewis1458%7.0 / 12
Q. Richardson650%3.0 / 6
M. Pietrus350%1.5 / 3
M. Gortat2-0.0 / 0
C. Duhon0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
79
+14
-10
93
ORL
79
+13
-12
92
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.01 50.5%
ORL
1.13 56.5%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
111.4
108.1
MIA 106.7
ORL 114.3 +7.5
Pace
91.3
91.2
MIA 89.9
ORL 90.1 +0.1
Avg. Poss. Time
16.2
15.6
MIA 16.0
ORL 16.0 +0.0
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
52.4%
52.1%
MIA 43.9%
ORL 55.7% +11.8%
TO %
14.4%
15.7%
MIA 9.5% +3.5%
ORL 13.0%
ORB %
25.2%
26.1%
MIA 28.3% +1.8%
ORL 26.5%
FTrt
36.3
32.8
MIA 35.4
ORL 55.7 +20.3
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
54.1%
55.3%
MIA 55.9%
ORL 66.7% +10.8%
STL %
7.3%
7.3%
MIA 6.7% +1.2%
ORL 5.5%
BLK %
8.5%
7.5%
MIA 3.9% +0.8%
ORL 3.1%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.24 and 2.24.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
55.7%
53.8%
MIA 50.5%
ORL 56.5% +6.0%
Rim FG%
64.7%
61.7%
MIA 72.2% +8.6%
ORL 63.6%
Mid FG%
42.2%
40.4%
MIA 37.0%
ORL 55.2% +18.2%
3P %
37.0%
36.6%
MIA 22.2%
ORL 31.6% +9.4%
FT %
76.9%
69.2%
MIA 79.3% +12.6%
ORL 66.7%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
31.6%
32.6%
MIA 22.0%
ORL 31.4% +9.5%
Mid Att. %
44.9%
34.5%
MIA 56.1%
ORL 41.4% +14.7%
3P Att. %
23.5%
32.8%
MIA 22.0%
ORL 27.1% +5.2%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.63 and 2.63.
Game TotalsMIAORL
Possessions8991
Possession Minutes23.824.3
Points95104
Rebounds3842
Assists1924
Steals65
Blocks22
Turnovers (Team)10 (0)12 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)13 (1)9 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)25 (1)33 (3)
Field Goals34-8236-70
At-the-Rim FG13-1814-22
Midrange FG17-4616-29
2-Point FG30-6430-51
3-Point FG4-186-19
Free Throws23-2926-39
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
F · 6'9" 250 · 26
40.7
25
60%
6
4
1
0
3
3
1
5
6-8
75%
8-15
53%
1-3
33%
G · 6'4" 220 · 29
40.0
18
38%
7
5
0
1
1
2
2
5
5-7
71%
5-17
29%
1-4
25%
F · 6'11" 235 · 27
36.0
21
70%
6
2
0
0
2
4
3
3
7-8
88%
7-13
54%
0-0
-
C · 7'3" 260 · 35
24.7
7
44%
6
1
1
0
0
5
3
3
1-2
50%
3-7
43%
0-0
-
G · 6'2" 200 · 31
21.6
9
64%
4
5
0
0
0
0
0
4
0-0
-
3-5
60%
1-2
50%
G · 6'1" 190 · 33
26.4
7
58%
3
2
2
0
1
4
0
3
2-2
100%
1-2
50%
1-4
25%
G-F · 6'8" 218 · 30
16.8
0
0%
3
0
1
0
0
2
1
2
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-5
0%
F · 6'9" 250 · 38
12.3
2
50%
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
0
2-2
100%
0-1
0%
0-0
-
C · 6'9" 245 · 28
11.2
4
100%
1
0
0
1
1
5
1
0
0-0
-
2-2
100%
0-0
-
C · 6'11" 265 · 33
10.2
2
50%
2
0
1
0
0
1
2
0
0-0
-
1-2
50%
0-0
-
C · 6'11" 265 · 35
G · 6'2" 190 · 25
#45 · C · 6'11" 285 · 23
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#13 · G-F · 6'8" 218 · 31
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#40 · F · 6'8" 235 · 30
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
95
51%
38
19
6
2
10
0
13
25
23-29
79%
30-64
47%
4-18
22%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.