Final Win Prob. pScore
2518%87
87
182%99
88
ORTG#PossPace
DET logo Pistons
104.88378.9
MIA logo Heat
107.38286.4

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatPistonsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatPistonsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventDETMIA
Q4 - 0:00.0MIA87
0%
88
100%
Q4 - 0:01.0MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)87
0.5%
88
99.5%
Q4 - 0:02.0DETMISS Daye 3' Alley Oop Layup87
7.3%
88
92.7%
Q4 - 0:02.0DETPistons Timeout: Short (Reg.5 Short 1)87
88
Q4 - 0:02.0MIAJames P.FOUL (P1.T4)87
88
Q4 - 0:06.0DETSUB: Gordon FOR Monroe87
88
Q4 - 0:06.0DETPistons Timeout: Regular (Reg.5 Short 0)87
88
Q4 - 0:06.0MIAHouse Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)87
33.4%
88
66.6%
Q4 - 0:06.0DETSUB: Monroe FOR Gordon87
87
Q4 - 0:06.0MIAHouse Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)87
35.9%
87
64.1%
Q4 - 0:06.0DETGordon S.FOUL (P4.PN)87
86
Q4 - 0:15.0MIAHEAT Timeout: Regular (Full 5 Short 1)87
86
Q4 - 0:23.0MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)87
49.9%
86
50.1%
Q4 - 0:24.0DETMISS Prince 15' Jump Shot87
57.8%
86
42.2%
Q4 - 0:50.0MIAMiller Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T11)87
62.9%
86
37.1%
Q4 - 1:07DETDaye 26' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS)87
43.7%
86
56.3%
Q4 - 1:13DETDaye REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)84
19.7%
86
80.3%
Q4 - 1:14DETMISS Prince 3PT Jump Shot84
13.6%
86
86.4%
Q4 - 1:29MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (39 PTS)84
20.9%
86
79.1%
Q4 - 1:29MIAHEAT Rebound84
85
Q4 - 1:29MIAMISS James Free Throw 1 of 284
22.7%
85
77.3%
Q4 - 1:29DETDaye S.FOUL (P5.T3)84
85
Q4 - 1:34MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)84
20.0%
85
80.0%
Q4 - 1:35DETMISS Gordon 15' Jump Shot84
23.1%
85
76.9%
Q4 - 1:53DETSUB: Daye FOR Villanueva84
85
Q4 - 1:53DETPistons Rebound84
30.3%
85
69.7%
Q4 - 1:54MIAMISS Anthony 4' Jump Shot84
27.0%
85
73.0%
Q4 - 2:12DETMcGrady 3' Layup (14 PTS) (Prince 2 AST)84
20.0%
85
80.0%
Q4 - 2:25MIAHouse 20' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (James 9 AST)82
15.8%
85
84.2%
Q4 - 2:38DETPistons Timeout: Regular (Reg.4 Short 0)82
83
Q4 - 2:38MIAHEAT Rebound82
20.0%
83
80.0%
Q4 - 2:39DETMISS Villanueva 5' Floating Jump Shot82
23.8%
83
76.2%
Q4 - 3:01MIAJames 25' 3PT Jump Shot (38 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)82
32.3%
83
67.7%
Q4 - 3:17MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)82
51.0%
80
49.0%
Q4 - 3:18DETMISS McGrady 21' Jump Shot82
55.8%
80
44.2%
Q4 - 3:27MIASUB: Miller FOR Chalmers82
80
Q4 - 3:27MIAChalmers P.FOUL (P4.T3)82
80
Q4 - 3:38MIAJames Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T10)82
56.5%
80
43.5%
Q4 - 3:58DETMcGrady 9' Hook Shot (12 PTS)82
46.8%
80
53.2%
Q4 - 4:20MIAHouse 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Chalmers 4 AST)80
38.2%
80
61.8%
Q4 - 4:34DETMcGrady Offensive Goaltending Turnover (P1.T6)80
56.9%
77
43.1%
Q4 - 4:45DETSUB: Gordon FOR Daye80
77
Q4 - 4:45DETSUB: Wilcox FOR Monroe80
77
Q4 - 4:45MIAChalmers P.FOUL (P3.T2)80
77
Q4 - 5:02DETMonroe REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)80
60.8%
77
39.2%
Q4 - 5:03DETMISS Daye 24' 3PT Jump Shot80
54.7%
77
45.3%
Q4 - 5:27MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 1 (35 PTS)80
61.1%
77
38.9%
Q4 - 5:27MIASUB: Jones FOR Howard80
76
Q4 - 5:27MIASUB: Chalmers FOR Miller80
76
Q4 - 5:27DETSUB: Monroe FOR Bynum80
76
Q4 - 5:27DETSUB: McGrady FOR Wilcox80
76
Q4 - 5:2780
76
Q4 - 5:27DETPrince S.FOUL (P3.T2)80
76
Q4 - 5:27MIAJames 2' Driving Layup (34 PTS)80
76
Q4 - 5:37DETWilcox 2' Tip Shot (10 PTS)80
75.3%
74
24.7%
Q4 - 5:38DETWilcox REBOUND (Off:8 Def:2)78
68.9%
74
31.1%
Q4 - 5:38DETMISS Bynum 3' Driving Layup78
63.3%
74
36.7%
Q4 - 5:57MIAHouse 2' Layup (8 PTS) (James 8 AST)78
69.1%
74
30.9%
Q4 - 6:15DETWilcox 2' Layup (8 PTS)78
69.5%
72
30.5%
Q4 - 6:16DETWilcox REBOUND (Off:7 Def:2)76
63.3%
72
36.7%
Q4 - 6:17DETMISS Wilcox 3' Layup76
57.8%
72
42.2%
Q4 - 6:37DETPrince REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)76
63.5%
72
36.5%
Q4 - 6:38MIAMISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot76
61.1%
72
38.9%
Q4 - 6:43MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)76
55.6%
72
44.4%
Q4 - 6:44MIAMISS House 25' 3PT Jump Shot76
61.2%
72
38.8%
Q4 - 7:04MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)76
51.3%
72
48.7%
Q4 - 7:05DETJames BLOCK (2 BLK)76
53.6%
72
46.4%
Q4 - 7:11DETWilcox REBOUND (Off:6 Def:2)76
58.8%
72
41.2%
Q4 - 7:14DETMISS Villanueva 18' Jump Shot76
53.7%
72
46.3%
Q4 - 7:26MIAMiller L.B.FOUL (P4.T1)76
72
Q4 - 7:26DETPistons Rebound76
58.9%
72
41.1%
Q4 - 7:27DETMISS Bynum 7' Hook Shot76
53.8%
72
46.2%
Q4 - 7:44DETDaye REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)76
59.0%
72
41.0%
Q4 - 7:45DETMISS Villanueva 25' 3PT Jump Shot76
53.9%
72
46.1%
Q4 - 8:03MIAMiller 21' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (James 7 AST)76
55.1%
72
44.9%
Q4 - 8:19DETSUB: Prince FOR Gordon76
70
Q4 - 8:19MIAHEAT Timeout: Regular (Full 4 Short 1)76
70
Q4 - 8:19DETVillanueva 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Daye 2 AST)76
61.7%
70
38.3%
Q4 - 8:42DETWilcox REBOUND (Off:5 Def:2)73
48.9%
70
51.1%
Q4 - 8:43MIAMISS Miller 24' 3PT Jump Shot73
47.0%
70
53.0%
Q4 - 8:55MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)73
42.7%
70
57.3%
Q4 - 8:56MIAMISS House 3PT Jump Shot73
47.1%
70
52.9%
Q4 - 9:06MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)73
40.9%
70
59.1%
Q4 - 9:07DETMISS Bynum 3' Driving Layup73
42.6%
70
57.4%
Q4 - 9:25MIAAnthony 2' Alley Oop Layup (2 PTS) (James 6 AST)73
46.8%
70
53.2%
Q4 - 9:42MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)73
52.9%
68
47.1%
Q4 - 9:43DETMISS Gordon 20' Jump Shot73
54.7%
68
45.3%
Q4 - 10:00MIAJames 10' Fadeaway Jumper (32 PTS)73
58.8%
68
41.2%
Q4 - 10:28DETGordon 3' Driving Layup (21 PTS)73
61.7%
66
38.3%
Q4 - 10:55MIAHouse 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (James 5 AST)71
56.3%
66
43.7%
Q4 - 11:03DETDaye P.FOUL (P4.T1)71
64
Q4 - 11:03MIAHEAT Rebound71
59.2%
64
40.8%
Q4 - 11:04MIAMISS House 25' 3PT Jump Shot71
62.7%
64
37.3%
Q4 - 11:17DETDaye 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Villanueva 1 AST)71
59.3%
64
40.7%
Q4 - 11:25DETVillanueva REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)68
48.6%
64
51.4%
Q4 - 11:26DETMISS Daye 20' Jump Shot68
44.9%
64
55.1%
Q4 - 11:45MIAHouse Foul Turnover (P1.T9)68
48.6%
64
51.4%
Q4 - 11:45MIAHouse OFF.Foul (P1)68
64
Q4 - 12:0068
64
Q3 - 0:00.0DET68
43.3%
64
56.7%
Q3 - 0:01.0DETWilcox REBOUND (Off:5 Def:1)68
46.5%
64
53.5%
Q3 - 0:02.0DETMISS Prince 24' 3PT Jump Shot68
43.3%
64
56.7%
Q3 - 0:08.0MIAJones P.FOUL (P2.T3)68
64
Q3 - 0:18.0MIAHouse 12' Jump Bank Shot (4 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)68
46.6%
64
53.4%
Q3 - 0:33.0MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)68
52.3%
62
47.7%
Q3 - 0:35.0DETMISS McGrady 3' Driving Layup68
53.7%
62
46.3%
Q3 - 0:55.0MIAHoward 3' Layup (2 PTS) (James 4 AST)68
57.0%
62
43.0%
Q3 - 1:00MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)68
62.3%
60
37.7%
Q3 - 1:01DETMISS Gordon 26' 3PT Jump Shot68
61.3%
60
38.7%
Q3 - 1:22DETDaye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)68
64.3%
60
35.7%
Q3 - 1:23MIAMISS James 13' Fadeaway Jumper68
63.1%
60
36.9%
Q3 - 1:32MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)68
60.1%
60
39.9%
Q3 - 1:33DETMISS Gordon 21' Jump Shot68
61.4%
60
38.6%
Q3 - 1:47MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (30 PTS)68
64.4%
60
35.6%
Q3 - 1:47MIAHEAT Rebound68
59
Q3 - 1:47MIAMISS James Free Throw 1 of 268
65.3%
59
34.7%
Q3 - 1:47MIASUB: Howard FOR Miller68
59
Q3 - 1:47DETPistons Timeout: Regular (Reg.3 Short 0)68
59
Q3 - 1:47DETDaye P.FOUL (P3.PN)68
59
Q3 - 1:52DETJames STEAL (1 STL)68
64.8%
59
35.2%
Q3 - 1:54DETDaye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)68
68.8%
59
31.2%
Q3 - 1:55MIAMISS James 26' 3PT Jump Shot68
67.6%
59
32.4%
Q3 - 2:12DETMcGrady 20' Jump Shot (10 PTS)68
61.6%
59
38.4%
Q3 - 2:32MIAJames 25' 3PT Jump Shot (29 PTS)66
57.1%
59
42.9%
Q3 - 2:52DETMcGrady 3' Driving Layup (8 PTS)66
66.2%
56
33.8%
Q3 - 3:03DETWilcox REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1)64
58.9%
56
41.1%
Q3 - 3:04MIAMISS Jones 21' Jump Shot64
57.6%
56
42.4%
Q3 - 3:23DETMcGrady 3' Layup (6 PTS)64
54.5%
56
45.5%
Q3 - 3:24DETMcGrady REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)62
50.2%
56
49.8%
Q3 - 3:25DETMISS Wilcox 3' Layup62
46.9%
56
53.1%
Q3 - 3:53MIASUB: House FOR Chalmers62
56
Q3 - 3:53MIAAnthony L.B.FOUL (P2.T2)62
56
Q3 - 3:53DETPistons Rebound62
50.2%
56
49.8%
Q3 - 3:54DETMISS McGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot62
47.0%
56
53.0%
Q3 - 4:10MIAJones Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)62
49.1%
56
50.9%
Q3 - 4:10MIAJones Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)62
49.6%
55
50.4%
Q3 - 4:10MIASUB: Anthony FOR Ilgauskas62
54
Q3 - 4:10DETDaye S.FOUL (P2.T4)62
54
Q3 - 4:29DETMcGrady 3PT Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Gordon 3 AST)62
52.8%
54
47.2%
Q3 - 4:52DETMcGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)59
44.8%
54
55.2%
Q3 - 4:53MIAMISS James 10' Jump Shot59
43.3%
54
56.7%
Q3 - 5:11MIAHEAT Timeout: Regular (Full 3 Short 1)59
54
Q3 - 5:11DETDaye 12' Fadeaway Jumper (13 PTS) (Prince 1 AST)59
38.4%
54
61.6%
Q3 - 5:19DETWilcox REBOUND (Off:4 Def:0)57
35.0%
54
65.0%
Q3 - 5:20DETMISS Gordon 25' 3PT Jump Shot57
32.1%
54
67.9%
Q3 - 5:29DETDaye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)57
35.0%
54
65.0%
Q3 - 5:30MIAMISS Ilgauskas 3' Layup57
33.7%
54
66.3%
Q3 - 5:52DETDaye 16' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (McGrady 10 AST)57
30.9%
54
69.1%
Q3 - 6:07MIAMiller Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)55
26.7%
54
73.3%
Q3 - 6:07MIAMiller Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)55
27.3%
53
72.7%
Q3 - 6:07DETMcGrady P.FOUL (P2.T3)55
52
Q3 - 6:10MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)55
29.7%
52
70.3%
Q3 - 6:11DETMISS Prince 15' Fadeaway Jumper55
30.8%
52
69.2%
Q3 - 6:28DETSUB: Wilcox FOR Monroe55
52
Q3 - 6:39MIAJones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (James 3 AST)55
33.6%
52
66.4%
Q3 - 7:06DETGordon 24' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Daye 1 AST)55
38.9%
49
61.1%
Q3 - 7:27MIAIlgauskas 2' Dunk (5 PTS) (Chalmers 3 AST)52
32.1%
49
67.9%
Q3 - 7:36MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)52
35.4%
47
64.6%
Q3 - 7:37DETMISS Prince 20' Jump Shot52
36.6%
47
63.4%
Q3 - 7:52MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 1 (26 PTS)52
39.3%
47
60.7%
Q3 - 7:52DETMcGrady S.FOUL (P1.T2)52
46
Q3 - 7:52MIAJames 3' Driving Layup (25 PTS)52
46
Q3 - 8:05DETDaye 2' Driving Layup (9 PTS)52
45.5%
44
54.5%
Q3 - 8:09DETMonroe REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)50
42.0%
44
58.0%
Q3 - 8:10MIAMISS Chalmers 8' Floating Jump Shot50
40.8%
44
59.2%
Q3 - 8:28DETGordon Foul Turnover (P2.T4)50
38.2%
44
61.8%
Q3 - 8:28DETGordon OFF.Foul (P3)50
44
Q3 - 8:37MIAMiller Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)50
42.0%
44
58.0%
Q3 - 8:37MIAHEAT Rebound50
43
Q3 - 8:37MIAMISS Miller Free Throw 1 of 250
42.7%
43
57.3%
Q3 - 8:37DETMonroe S.FOUL (P2.T1)50
43
Q3 - 8:51DETGordon Foul Turnover (P1.T3)50
41.8%
43
58.2%
Q3 - 8:51DETGordon OFF.Foul (P2)50
43
Q3 - 9:13MIAChalmers 3' Driving Layup (8 PTS)50
44.3%
43
55.7%
Q3 - 9:27DETPrince 4' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (McGrady 9 AST)50
47.9%
41
52.1%
Q3 - 9:36DETGordon Free Throw Technical (16 PTS)48
44.4%
41
55.6%
Q3 - 9:36MIAHEAT T.Foul (Def. 3 Sec Jones )47
41
Q3 - 9:57MIAMiller 3' Hook Shot (7 PTS)47
40.8%
41
59.2%
Q3 - 10:15DETMonroe 5' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Gordon 2 AST)47
42.5%
39
57.5%
Q3 - 10:29DETMonroe REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)45
39.2%
39
60.8%
Q3 - 10:30MIAMISS James 20' Jump Shot45
38.2%
39
61.8%
Q3 - 10:55DETGordon 20' Jump Shot (15 PTS) (McGrady 8 AST)45
35.8%
39
64.2%
Q3 - 11:17DETPistons Rebound43
31.7%
39
68.3%
Q3 - 11:18MIAMISS Chalmers 2' Reverse Layup43
30.8%
39
69.2%
Q3 - 11:40DETMonroe Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)43
28.7%
39
71.3%
Q3 - 11:40DETPistons Rebound42
39
Q3 - 11:40DETMISS Monroe Free Throw 1 of 242
27.7%
39
72.3%
Q3 - 11:40MIAJones S.FOUL (P1.T1)42
39
Q3 - 12:0042
39
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA42
28.9%
39
71.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0DET42
39
Q2 - 0:00.0DETMonroe 12' Turnaround Jump Shot (6 PTS)42
25.9%
39
74.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0DETMonroe REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)40
23.5%
39
76.5%
Q2 - 0:02.0DETAnthony BLOCK (2 BLK)40
21.6%
39
78.4%
Q2 - 0:13.0MIAJames Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T8)40
22.8%
39
77.2%
Q2 - 0:32.0MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)40
21.1%
39
78.9%
Q2 - 0:33.0DETMISS McGrady 19' Jump Shot40
21.6%
39
78.4%
Q2 - 0:43.0DETDaye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)40
22.9%
39
77.1%
Q2 - 0:44.0MIAMISS James 25' 3PT Jump Shot40
22.3%
39
77.7%
Q2 - 1:02DETHouse STEAL (1 STL)40
20.8%
39
79.2%
Q2 - 1:25MIAJames 2' Running Dunk (23 PTS) (Miller 3 AST)40
22.4%
39
77.6%
Q2 - 1:29MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:9)40
25.5%
37
74.5%
Q2 - 1:30DETMISS Daye 3PT Jump Shot40
26.0%
37
74.0%
Q2 - 1:53MIAJames 3' Driving Layup (21 PTS)40
27.3%
37
72.7%
Q2 - 2:15DETDaye Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)40
29.6%
35
70.4%
Q2 - 2:15DETDaye Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)39
29.1%
35
70.9%
Q2 - 2:15MIAMiller P.FOUL (P3.PN)38
35
Q2 - 2:17DETDaye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)38
27.1%
35
72.9%
Q2 - 2:18MIAMISS James 2' Driving Layup38
26.3%
35
73.7%
Q2 - 2:23MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)38
24.6%
35
75.4%
Q2 - 2:24DETMISS Villanueva 8' Jump Shot38
25.3%
35
74.7%
Q2 - 2:41MIASUB: Jones FOR Chalmers38
35
Q2 - 2:41DETPistons Timeout: Regular (Reg.2 Short 0)38
35
Q2 - 2:44DETPrince REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)38
27.1%
35
72.9%
Q2 - 2:45MIAMISS Chalmers 26' 3PT Jump Shot38
26.3%
35
73.7%
Q2 - 2:53MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)38
24.6%
35
75.4%
Q2 - 2:54DETMISS Daye 2' Driving Layup38
25.4%
35
74.6%
Q2 - 3:08MIAChalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (James 2 AST)38
26.5%
35
73.5%
Q2 - 3:27DETMonroe 2' Dunk (4 PTS) (McGrady 7 AST)38
31.2%
32
68.8%
Q2 - 3:42MIAJames 23' Jump Shot (19 PTS)36
29.1%
32
70.9%
Q2 - 4:06MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)36
30.3%
30
69.7%
Q2 - 4:07MIAMISS Miller 26' 3PT Jump Shot36
32.2%
30
67.8%
Q2 - 4:16DETVillanueva P.FOUL (P1.T2)36
30
Q2 - 4:23MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)36
30.3%
30
69.7%
Q2 - 4:24DETMISS Prince 16' Jump Shot36
31.2%
30
68.8%
Q2 - 4:48MIAJames 2' Driving Layup (17 PTS)36
33.2%
30
66.8%
Q2 - 4:59MIAHEAT Rebound36
35.7%
28
64.3%
Q2 - 5:00MIAMISS James 3' Driving Layup36
37.9%
28
62.1%
Q2 - 5:09DETPrince Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)36
35.0%
28
65.0%
Q2 - 5:09DETSUB: Monroe FOR Wilcox35
28
Q2 - 5:09DETPrince Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)35
34.4%
28
65.6%
Q2 - 5:09MIAChalmers S.FOUL (P2.T4)34
28
Q2 - 5:29MIAJames 3' Driving Layup (15 PTS)34
32.4%
28
67.6%
Q2 - 5:40MIAHEAT Rebound34
35.0%
26
65.0%
Q2 - 5:41DETMISS Villanueva 25' 3PT Jump Shot34
35.8%
26
64.2%
Q2 - 5:56DETSUB: McGrady FOR Bynum34
26
Q2 - 5:5634
26
Q2 - 5:56MIAMiller Foul Turnover (P1.T7)34
37.8%
26
62.2%
Q2 - 5:56MIAMiller OFF.Foul (P2)34
26
Q2 - 6:06DETSUB: Prince FOR Gordon34
26
Q2 - 6:06MIAHEAT Rebound34
34.0%
26
66.0%
Q2 - 6:07MIAMISS James 18' Jump Shot34
36.1%
26
63.9%
Q2 - 6:35DETWilcox 3' Tip Shot (6 PTS)34
34.1%
26
65.9%
Q2 - 6:36DETWilcox REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)32
31.9%
26
68.1%
Q2 - 6:37DETJames BLOCK (1 BLK)32
30.0%
26
70.0%
Q2 - 6:42DETBynum REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)32
31.9%
26
68.1%
Q2 - 6:43MIAMISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot32
31.1%
26
68.9%
Q2 - 6:50MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)32
29.2%
26
70.8%
Q2 - 6:51DETMISS Daye 24' 3PT Jump Shot32
30.0%
26
70.0%
Q2 - 7:10DETGordon REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)32
30.8%
26
69.2%
Q2 - 7:11MIAMISS James 19' Jump Shot32
30.0%
26
70.0%
Q2 - 7:20MIAHEAT Timeout: Short (Full 2 Short 1)32
26
Q2 - 7:21MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)32
28.4%
26
71.6%
Q2 - 7:22DETMISS Daye 18' Jump Shot32
29.1%
26
70.9%
Q2 - 7:24DETWilcox REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)32
30.8%
26
69.2%
Q2 - 7:25DETMISS Gordon 24' 3PT Jump Shot32
29.1%
26
70.9%
Q2 - 7:35MIAJames Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T6)32
30.9%
26
69.1%
Q2 - 7:52MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)32
28.4%
26
71.6%
Q2 - 7:53DETMISS Wilcox 3' Tip Shot32
29.2%
26
70.8%
Q2 - 7:54DETWilcox REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)32
30.9%
26
69.1%
Q2 - 7:55DETMISS Villanueva 5' Floating Jump Shot32
29.2%
26
70.8%
Q2 - 8:12MIAAnthony Foul Turnover (P1.T5)32
29.9%
26
70.1%
Q2 - 8:12MIAAnthony OFF.Foul (P1)32
26
Q2 - 8:19MIASUB: James FOR Howard32
26
Q2 - 8:19MIAHEAT Timeout: Regular (Full 2 Short 0)32
26
Q2 - 8:25DETGordon 2' Layup (13 PTS) (Bynum 2 AST)32
27.7%
26
72.3%
Q2 - 8:29MIAChalmers Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T4)30
25.6%
26
74.4%
Q2 - 8:46DETDaye 2' Layup (5 PTS) (Wilcox 2 AST)30
23.6%
26
76.4%
Q2 - 9:04MIAMiller 3' Layup (5 PTS) (Chalmers 2 AST)28
21.3%
26
78.7%
Q2 - 9:17DETSUB: Daye FOR McGrady28
24
Q2 - 9:17MIAHEAT Rebound28
23.1%
24
76.9%
Q2 - 9:18DETMISS Bynum 20' Jump Shot28
23.7%
24
76.3%
Q2 - 9:26DETGordon REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)28
25.1%
24
74.9%
Q2 - 9:27DETAnthony BLOCK (1 BLK)28
23.7%
24
76.3%
Q2 - 9:31MIAChalmers Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3)28
25.1%
24
74.9%
Q2 - 9:45DETGordon 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Bynum 1 AST)28
23.1%
24
76.9%
Q2 - 10:02MIAHouse 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)25
19.7%
24
80.3%
Q2 - 10:10MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)25
21.2%
22
78.8%
Q2 - 10:11DETMISS McGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot25
21.7%
22
78.3%
Q2 - 10:16MIAHoward P.FOUL (P2.T3)25
22
Q2 - 10:25MIAMiller Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)25
23.1%
22
76.9%
Q2 - 10:25DETWilcox S.FOUL (P1.T1)25
21
Q2 - 10:25MIAMiller 3' Layup (2 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST)25
21
Q2 - 10:40DETVillanueva Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)25
26.7%
19
73.3%
Q2 - 10:40MIAHoward S.FOUL (P1.T2)24
19
Q2 - 10:40DETVillanueva 2' Driving Layup (2 PTS)24
19
Q2 - 10:45DETVillanueva REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)22
23.1%
19
76.9%
Q2 - 10:46MIAMISS Miller 3' Driving Layup22
22.5%
19
77.5%
Q2 - 10:51MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)22
21.2%
19
78.8%
Q2 - 10:52MIAMISS Miller 19' Jump Shot22
22.5%
19
77.5%
Q2 - 11:05MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)22
21.1%
19
78.9%
Q2 - 11:06DETMISS Gordon 21' Jump Shot22
21.7%
19
78.3%
Q2 - 11:22MIAChalmers P.FOUL (P1.T1)22
19
Q2 - 11:24DETVillanueva REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)22
23.0%
19
77.0%
Q2 - 11:25MIAMISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot22
22.4%
19
77.6%
Q2 - 11:41MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)22
21.1%
19
78.9%
Q2 - 11:42DETMISS Villanueva 20' Jump Shot22
21.7%
19
78.3%
Q2 - 12:0022
19
Q1 - 0:00.0DET22
23.0%
19
77.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0DETPistons Rebound22
23.0%
19
77.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0DETMISS McGrady 19' Jump Shot22
21.7%
19
78.3%
Q1 - 0:11.0MIAJames 15' Fadeaway Jumper (13 PTS)22
22.2%
19
77.8%
Q1 - 0:35.0DETPrince 2' Dunk (4 PTS) (Wilcox 1 AST)22
24.3%
17
75.7%
Q1 - 0:38.0DETGordon Free Throw Technical (8 PTS)20
22.3%
17
77.7%
Q1 - 0:38.0MIAHEAT T.Foul (Def. 3 Sec Anthony )19
17
Q1 - 0:50.0MIAHEAT Turnover: Shot Clock (T#2)19
20.7%
17
79.3%
Q1 - 0:50.0MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)19
19.4%
17
80.6%
Q1 - 0:50.0MIAMISS Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot19
20.3%
17
79.7%
Q1 - 1:17DETWilcox 2' Dunk (4 PTS) (McGrady 6 AST)19
19.1%
17
80.9%
Q1 - 1:25DETMcGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)17
17.4%
17
82.6%
Q1 - 1:26MIAMISS Arroyo 11' Floating Jump Shot17
17.1%
17
82.9%
Q1 - 1:55DETWilcox 3' Layup (2 PTS) (McGrady 5 AST)17
16.4%
17
83.6%
Q1 - 2:09MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)15
15.0%
17
85.0%
Q1 - 2:09MIAHEAT Rebound15
16
Q1 - 2:09MIAMISS James Free Throw 1 of 215
15.2%
16
84.8%
Q1 - 2:09DETPrince S.FOUL (P2.PN)15
16
Q1 - 2:21MIASUB: Jones FOR Miller15
16
Q1 - 2:21MIASUB: Anthony FOR Ilgauskas15
16
Q1 - 2:21DETPistons Timeout: Regular (Reg.1 Short 0)15
16
Q1 - 2:21DETDaye P.FOUL (P1.T4)15
16
Q1 - 2:30MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)15
15.1%
16
84.9%
Q1 - 2:31DETMISS Prince 24' 3PT Jump Shot15
15.4%
16
84.6%
Q1 - 2:50MIAJames 4' Jump Bank Shot (10 PTS)15
16.2%
16
83.8%
Q1 - 3:09DETMcGrady Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)15
17.3%
14
82.7%
Q1 - 3:09DETPistons Rebound14
14
Q1 - 3:09DETMISS McGrady Free Throw 1 of 214
16.9%
14
83.1%
Q1 - 3:09DETSUB: Wilcox FOR Monroe14
14
Q1 - 3:09MIASUB: Howard FOR Jones14
14
Q1 - 3:09MIASUB: Arroyo FOR Chalmers14
14
Q1 - 3:09MIAMiller S.FOUL (P1.T1)14
14
Q1 - 3:12DETMcGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)14
17.3%
14
82.7%
Q1 - 3:13MIAMISS Ilgauskas 9' Jump Shot14
16.9%
14
83.1%
Q1 - 3:36DETDaye 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gordon 1 AST)14
16.0%
14
84.0%
Q1 - 3:46DETMonroe REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)11
13.8%
14
86.2%
Q1 - 3:47MIAMISS Miller 26' 3PT Jump Shot11
13.4%
14
86.6%
Q1 - 3:58MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)11
12.7%
14
87.3%
Q1 - 3:59DETMISS McGrady 3' Jump Shot11
13.0%
14
87.0%
Q1 - 4:14MIAChalmers Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)11
13.7%
14
86.3%
Q1 - 4:14DETMonroe S.FOUL (P1.T3)11
13
Q1 - 4:14MIAChalmers 3' Layup (2 PTS) (James 1 AST)11
13
Q1 - 4:26DETGordon 19' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (McGrady 4 AST)11
15.7%
11
84.3%
Q1 - 4:37MIAHEAT Turnover: Backcourt (T#1)9
14.8%
11
85.2%
Q1 - 4:53MIAHEAT Timeout: Regular (Full 1 Short 0)9
11
Q1 - 5:00DETPrince 3' Layup (2 PTS) (McGrady 3 AST)9
13.8%
11
86.2%
Q1 - 5:06DETMcGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)7
13.1%
11
86.9%
Q1 - 5:07MIAMISS Jones 26' 3PT Jump Shot7
12.8%
11
87.2%
Q1 - 5:17MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)7
12.2%
11
87.8%
Q1 - 5:18DETMISS McGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot7
12.5%
11
87.5%
Q1 - 5:40DETDaye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)7
13.2%
11
86.8%
Q1 - 5:41MIAMISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot7
12.9%
11
87.1%
Q1 - 5:51MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)7
12.3%
11
87.7%
Q1 - 5:52DETIlgauskas BLOCK (1 BLK)7
12.6%
11
87.4%
Q1 - 6:05DETDaye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)7
13.1%
11
86.9%
Q1 - 6:06MIAMISS James 13' Turnaround Jump Shot7
12.9%
11
87.1%
Q1 - 6:14MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)7
12.4%
11
87.6%
Q1 - 6:15DETMISS McGrady 12' Turnaround Jump Shot7
12.6%
11
87.4%
Q1 - 6:37MIAJames 12' Jump Shot (8 PTS)7
13.3%
11
86.7%
Q1 - 6:46MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)7
14.0%
9
86.0%
Q1 - 6:47DETMISS Daye 7' Jump Shot7
14.3%
9
85.7%
Q1 - 7:03MIAIlgauskas Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)7
14.8%
9
85.2%
Q1 - 7:03MIAHEAT Rebound7
8
Q1 - 7:03MIAMISS Ilgauskas Free Throw 1 of 27
14.9%
8
85.1%
Q1 - 7:03DETPrince S.FOUL (P1.T2)7
8
Q1 - 7:12MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)7
14.8%
8
85.2%
Q1 - 7:13DETMISS Prince 10' Turnaround Jump Shot7
15.0%
8
85.0%
Q1 - 7:34MIAJames 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS)7
15.7%
8
84.3%
Q1 - 7:55DETMonroe 3' Layup (2 PTS) (McGrady 2 AST)7
16.5%
6
83.5%
Q1 - 8:01DETMcGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)5
15.5%
6
84.5%
Q1 - 8:02MIAMISS Ilgauskas 4' Jump Shot5
15.3%
6
84.7%
Q1 - 8:03MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)5
14.9%
6
85.1%
Q1 - 8:05MIAMISS Ilgauskas 5' Jump Shot5
15.3%
6
84.7%
Q1 - 8:19MIAJones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)5
15.0%
6
85.0%
Q1 - 8:20DETMISS Monroe 3' Hook Shot5
15.2%
6
84.8%
Q1 - 8:21DETMonroe REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)5
15.6%
6
84.4%
Q1 - 8:22DETMISS Monroe 2' Tip Shot5
15.2%
6
84.8%
Q1 - 8:23DETMonroe REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)5
15.7%
6
84.3%
Q1 - 8:26DETMISS McGrady 2' Driving Layup5
15.2%
6
84.8%
Q1 - 8:32DETMcGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)5
15.7%
6
84.3%
Q1 - 8:33MIAMISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot5
15.5%
6
84.5%
Q1 - 8:42MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)5
15.1%
6
84.9%
Q1 - 8:43DETMISS Daye 25' 3PT Jump Shot5
15.3%
6
84.7%
Q1 - 9:07MIAJames 3' Layup (4 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)5
15.8%
6
84.2%
Q1 - 9:23DETGordon 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)5
16.5%
4
83.5%
Q1 - 9:48MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)2
15.6%
4
84.4%
Q1 - 9:48MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)2
15.7%
3
84.3%
Q1 - 9:48DETGordon S.FOUL (P1.T1)2
2
Q1 - 9:50DETMiller STEAL (1 STL)2
16.1%
2
83.9%
Q1 - 9:58DETPistons Rebound2
16.7%
2
83.3%
Q1 - 9:59DETMISS Prince 20' Jump Shot2
16.4%
2
83.6%
Q1 - 10:04DETMonroe REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
16.7%
2
83.3%
Q1 - 10:05MIAMISS Ilgauskas 2' Layup2
16.5%
2
83.5%
Q1 - 10:06MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)2
16.2%
2
83.8%
Q1 - 10:07MIAMISS Miller 26' 3PT Jump Shot2
16.6%
2
83.4%
Q1 - 10:08MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)2
16.2%
2
83.8%
Q1 - 10:24MIAMISS Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot2
16.7%
2
83.3%
Q1 - 10:33MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)2
16.5%
2
83.5%
Q1 - 10:34MIAMISS Miller 26' 3PT Jump Shot2
16.8%
2
83.2%
Q1 - 10:43MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
16.6%
2
83.4%
Q1 - 10:44DETMISS Gordon 3PT Jump Shot2
16.7%
2
83.3%
Q1 - 10:55DETMcGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
17.0%
2
83.0%
Q1 - 10:56MIAMISS Ilgauskas 10' Jump Shot2
16.9%
2
83.1%
Q1 - 11:18DETGordon 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (McGrady 1 AST)2
17.0%
2
83.0%
Q1 - 11:40MIAIlgauskas 12' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS)0
17.2%
2
82.8%
Q1 - 12:00MIAJump Ball Ilgauskas vs. Monroe: Tip to Miller0
17.6%
0
82.4%
Q1 - 12:000
0
ClockTeamEventDETMIA
Score / WinProb

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DET
0.89 44.4%
MIA
1.02 51.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
DET
19
38
50%
MIA
17
26
65%
Midrange
DET
8
30
27%
MIA
11
23
48%
3PT | Effective 3PT
DET
8
12.0
24
33%
50%
MIA
5
7.5
24
21%
31%
Free Throws
DET
9
11
82%
MIA
17
22
77%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
DET logo Pistons
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
B. Gordon2166%10.5 / 16
A. Daye1953%9.5 / 18
T. McGrady1439%7.0 / 18
C. Wilcox1063%5.0 / 8
G. Monroe964%4.5 / 7
T. Prince829%4.0 / 14
C. Villanueva630%3.0 / 10
W. Bynum0-0.0 / 5
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
L. James3967%19.5 / 29
E. House1575%7.5 / 10
M. Miller1243%6.0 / 14
M. Chalmers844%4.0 / 9
J. Jones536%2.5 / 7
Z. Ilgauskas528%2.5 / 9
J. Anthony250%1.0 / 2
J. Howard2100%1.0 / 1
C. Arroyo0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DET
77
+21
-6
98
MIA
73
+12
-9
85
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DET
0.89 44.4%
MIA
1.02 51.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
107.5
111.4
DET 104.8
MIA 107.3 +2.5
Pace
89.3
91.3
DET 78.9
MIA 86.4 +7.5
Avg. Poss. Time
16.6
16.2
DET 18.2
MIA 16.7 −1.6
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
49.5%
52.4%
DET 42.4%
MIA 48.6% +6.2%
TO %
13.5%
14.4%
DET 5.8% −5.9%
MIA 11.7%
ORB %
27.4%
25.2%
DET 34.0% +8.3%
MIA 25.7%
FTrt
27.9
36.3
DET 12.0
MIA 30.1 +18.1
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
56.6%
54.1%
DET 62.9% +8.4%
MIA 54.5%
STL %
8.0%
7.3%
DET 6.0% +2.3%
MIA 3.7%
BLK %
6.6%
8.5%
DET 12.2% +4.8%
MIA 7.4%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.24 and 2.24.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
51.9%
55.7%
DET 44.4%
MIA 51.2% +6.8%
Rim FG%
59.2%
64.7%
DET 50.0%
MIA 65.4% +15.4%
Mid FG%
38.8%
42.2%
DET 26.7%
MIA 47.8% +21.1%
3P %
37.6%
37.0%
DET 33.3% +12.5%
MIA 20.8%
FT %
73.7%
76.9%
DET 81.8% +4.5%
MIA 77.3%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
36.3%
31.6%
DET 41.3% +5.7%
MIA 35.6%
Mid Att. %
44.8%
44.9%
DET 32.6%
MIA 31.5% −1.1%
3P Att. %
18.9%
23.5%
DET 26.1%
MIA 32.9% +6.8%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.36 and 2.36.
Game TotalsDETMIA
Possessions8382
Possession Minutes25.222.8
Points8788
Rebounds4342
Assists2218
Steals53
Blocks65
Turnovers (Team)6 (0)9 (2)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)17 (4)9 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)26 (2)33 (3)
Field Goals35-9233-73
At-the-Rim FG19-3817-26
Midrange FG8-3011-23
2-Point FG27-6828-49
3-Point FG8-245-24
Free Throws9-1117-22
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
F · 6'11" 220 · 23
42.4
19
53%
9
2
1
1
3
5
2
7
2-2
100%
4-10
40%
3-7
43%
F · 6'9" 212 · 31
38.4
8
29%
2
2
0
0
0
3
0
2
2-2
100%
3-10
30%
0-3
0%
G · 6'3" 205 · 28
38.3
21
66%
2
3
0
0
2
4
1
1
2-2
100%
5-9
56%
3-7
43%
G · 6'8" 225 · 32
38.1
14
39%
8
10
0
4
1
2
1
7
1-2
50%
5-13
38%
1-4
25%
C · 6'11" 265 · 21
20.2
9
64%
8
0
0
1
0
2
4
4
1-2
50%
4-6
67%
0-0
-
F-C · 6'10" 235 · 28
27.8
10
63%
10
2
0
0
0
1
8
2
0-0
-
5-8
63%
0-0
-
F · 6'11" 232 · 26
22.1
6
30%
3
1
3
0
0
1
1
2
1-1
100%
1-7
14%
1-3
33%
G · 6'0" 185 · 28
12.6
0
0%
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
1
0-0
-
0-5
0%
0-0
-
G · 6'5" 205 · 25
F-C · 6'9" 240 · 36
F · 6'7" 260 · 28
F · 6'8" 240 · 23
#33 · F · 6'10" 231 · 24
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#32 · G · 6'7" 193 · 33
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#23 · G · 6'5" 213 · 21
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
87
44%
43
22
5
6
6
0
17
26
9-11
82%
27-68
40%
8-24
33%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.