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Predicted Boxscore

Boxscore predictions combine predicted minutes / possessions with estimated skills. For more information and some caveats, see below.
Monday
January 15, 2018
3:30 AM ET
FinalWin Prob.pScoreScore
11Heat52%105111
24Bulls48%104119
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GameMINPTSTS%REBASTSTLBLKTOVORBDRBFTFT%2P2P%3P3P%
Goran Dragic
G · 6'3" 190 · 31.7
38.0
32.5
22
52%
5
9
0
1
0
2
0
5
8-9
89%
7-11
6-11
64%
50%
0-6
0%
Josh Richardson
F · 6'6" 200 · 24.3
32.0
33.1
11
55%
5
6
2
1
2
1
0
5
0-0
-
1-3
4-7
33%
50%
3-7
43%
James Johnson
F · 6'8" 240 · 30.9
29.3
20.1
8
52%
2
3
1
1
0
1
0
2
0-4
0%
1-3
2-4
33%
55%
2-3
67%
Tyler Johnson
G · 6'3" 186 · 25.7
20.0
30.0
10
67%
1
3
0
1
0
2
0
1
1-1
100%
3-4
3-6
75%
49%
1-3
33%
Hassan Whiteside
C · 7'0" 265 · 28.6
19.9
25.3
9
54%
8
1
0
1
2
2
0
8
3-3
100%
3-7
6-10
43%
57%
0-0
-
Wayne Ellington
G · 6'5" 200 · 30.1
32.6
31.4
20
70%
5
1
0
1
0
2
1
4
3-3
100%
1-2
1-2
50%
47%
5-11
45%
Kelly Olynyk
F-C · 7'0" 245 · 26.7
28.1
22.1
21
62%
3
8
0
1
0
2
0
3
2-2
100%
8-11
2-4
73%
56%
1-5
20%
Justise Winslow
F · 6'7" 225 · 21.8
21.4
10.8
4
67%
6
4
1
0
0
1
1
5
0-0
-
2-3
1-2
67%
44%
0-0
-
Bam Adebayo
C-F · 6'10" 255 · 20.5
18.7
25.5
6
51%
5
0
1
1
0
1
2
3
2-2
100%
2-4
3-6
50%
54%
0-1
0%
Derrick Jones Jr.
F-G · 6'7" 200 · 20.9
9.9
0
1-2
54%
Jordan Mickey
C-F · 6'8" 235 · 23.5
4.2
0
1-1
51%
Udonis Haslem
F · 6'8" 235 · 37.6
1.6
0
0-0
46%
AJ Hammons
C · 7'0" 260 · 25.4
Okaro White
F · 6'8" 215 · 25.4
Rodney McGruder
G-F · 6'4" 200 · 26.5
Dion Waiters
G · 6'4" 215 · 26.1
Derrick Walton Jr.
G · 6'1" 185 · 22.8
GameMINPTSTS%REBASTSTLBLKTOVORBDRBFTFT%2P2P%3P3P%
Justin Holiday
G · 6'6" 185 · 28.8
35.3
32.5
25
79%
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
3
2-2
100%
1-4
2-4
25%
46%
7-11
64%
Kris Dunn
G · 6'4" 210 · 23.8
32.6
30.7
6
27%
2
10
1
2
0
2
0
2
0-0
-
3-10
5-11
30%
47%
0-1
0%
Lauri Markkanen
F · 7'0" 230 · 20.7
30.4
28.9
17
61%
9
3
1
1
0
0
1
8
2-2
100%
3-7
3-6
43%
51%
3-6
50%
Robin Lopez
C · 7'0" 277 · 29.8
23.6
26.2
10
83%
6
1
0
0
0
2
0
6
0-0
-
5-6
5-9
83%
53%
0-0
-
Zach LaVine
G · 6'5" 185 · 22.9
19.9
28.6
18
68%
5
5
2
1
0
1
1
4
2-3
67%
5-8
3-6
63%
49%
2-4
50%
Denzel Valentine
F · 6'6" 214 · 24.2
27.8
24.7
12
61%
7
2
0
1
0
1
0
7
4-4
100%
4-5
2-4
80%
46%
0-3
0%
Nikola Mirotic
F · 6'10" 238 · 26.9
24.2
17.2
18
64%
5
1
0
1
1
1
0
5
7-7
100%
1-1
2-4
100%
50%
3-10
30%
Bobby Portis
F · 6'11" 248 · 22.9
17.7
19.3
8
68%
2
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1-2
50%
2-2
3-7
100%
53%
1-3
33%
Jerian Grant
G · 6'4" 198 · 25.3
15.4
14.6
4
40%
2
3
0
1
0
0
1
1
0-0
-
2-4
1-3
50%
49%
0-1
0%
David Nwaba
F · 6'4" 209 · 25.0
13.0
23.0
1
17%
3
0
0
1
0
0
2
1
1-2
50%
0-2
3-5
0%
54%
0-0
-
Paul Zipser
F · 6'8" 226 · 23.9
6.2
0
0-1
44%
Cristiano Felicio
C-F · 6'9" 280 · 25.5
4.2
0
0-1
57%
Quincy Pondexter
F · 6'7" 230 · 29.9
1.9
0
0-0
48%
Antonio Blakeney
G · 6'4" 197 · 21.3
Cameron Payne
G · 6'3" 185 · 23.4
Ryan Arcidiacono
G · 6'3" 195 · 23.8
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.