Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, February 5, 2018

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	27	Bulls	51%	106	98
	29	Kings	49%	105	104

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
CHI	104.3	94	106.6
SAC	111.8	93	83.2

Scoring Opportunities

CHI

+11

-12

SAC

+13

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CHI

1.05 52.7%

SAC

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	CHI	SAC
Q4 - 0:00.0	CHI		98 0%	104 100%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

CHI

1.05 52.7%

SAC

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

CHI

42%

SAC

73%

Midrange

CHI

40%

SAC

27%

3PT | Effective 3PT

CHI

21.0

39%

58%

SAC

16.5

34%

52%

Free Throws

CHI

83%

SAC

76%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Bulls

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
Z. LaVine	27	68%	13.5 / 20
J. Holiday	20	91%	10.0 / 11
B. Portis	18	43%	9.0 / 21
D. Valentine	11	61%	5.5 / 9
P. Zipser	10	45%	5.0 / 11
J. Grant	9	50%	4.5 / 9
R. Lopez	2	20%	1.0 / 5
C. Felicio	1	25%	0.5 / 2
D. Nwaba	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Bogdanović	15	68%	7.5 / 11
G. Hill	14	64%	7.0 / 11
G. Temple	12	60%	6.0 / 10
Z. Randolph	11	42%	5.5 / 13
J. Jackson	11	61%	5.5 / 9
B. Hield	11	55%	5.5 / 10
J. Sampson	9	90%	4.5 / 5
W. Cauley-Stein	7	44%	3.5 / 8
D. Fox	5	31%	2.5 / 8
K. Koufos	5	63%	2.5 / 4
V. Carter	4	40%	2.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

CHI

+11

-12

SAC

+13

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CHI

1.05 52.7%

SAC

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Season Averages		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	104.0 103.7	CHI 104.3 SAC 111.8 +7.6
Pace	98.1 95.0	CHI 106.6 +23.4 SAC 83.2
Avg. Poss. Time	14.1 15.3	CHI 13.5 +3.8 SAC 17.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	49.7% 50.2%	CHI 48.8% SAC 50.6% +1.8%
TO %	13.4% 13.9%	CHI 11.7% SAC 10.4% +1.3%
ORB %	20.5% 21.5%	CHI 20.0% +0.4% SAC 19.6%
FTrt	21.6 19.4	CHI 30.0 +0.2 SAC 29.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	60.7% 55.6%	CHI 62.5% +3.0% SAC 59.5%
STL %	7.7% 8.2%	CHI 6.4% +1.0% SAC 5.4%
BLK %	6.5% 8.1%	CHI 1.9% SAC 11.4% +9.5%

Season Averages		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	51.6% 51.7%	CHI 52.7% SAC 54.2% +1.5%
Rim FG%	57.1% 58.5%	CHI 42.1% SAC 73.1% +31.0%
Mid FG%	38.4% 39.4%	CHI 40.0% +13.1% SAC 26.9%
3P %	35.5% 37.5%	CHI 38.9% +4.5% SAC 34.4%
FT %	75.8% 73.5%	CHI 83.3% +7.3% SAC 76.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	32.8% 32.1%	CHI 23.8% SAC 31.0% +7.2%
Mid Att. %	32.2% 40.1%	CHI 31.3% SAC 31.0% +0.3%
3P Att. %	35.0% 27.9%	CHI 45.0% +6.9% SAC 38.1%

Game Totals	CHI	SAC
Possessions	94	93
Possession Minutes	21.2	26.8
Points	98	104
Rebounds	46	45
Assists	20	22
Steals	6	5
Blocks	1	5
Turnovers (Team)	12 (0)	11 (0)
Fouls	21	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (2)	9 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	37 (1)	36 (3)
Field Goals	32-80	37-84
At-the-Rim FG	8-19	19-26
Midrange FG	10-25	7-26
2-Point FG	18-44	26-52
3-Point FG	14-36	11-32
Free Throws	20-24	19-25
Fast Break Pts	6	10
2nd Chance Pts	13	12
Points in Paint	24	42
Pts off Turnovers	8	13
Bench Points	22	55
Biggest Lead	21	6

BOXSCORES

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27 Chicago Bulls

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jerian Grant G · 6'4" 198 · 25	36.2	9	50%	4	5	0	0	3	3	1	3	6-6	100%	0-1	0%	1-5	20%
Justin Holiday F · 6'6" 185 · 29	35.7	20	91%	4	2	1	0	0	3	0	4	4-5	80%	2-3	67%	4-7	57%
Bobby Portis F · 6'10" 250 · 23	32.4	18	43%	14	4	2	0	1	2	2	12	2-4	50%	5-13	38%	2-6	33%
Zach LaVine G · 6'5" 200 · 23	31.3	27	68%	3	2	1	0	2	2	1	2	5-5	100%	5-10	50%	4-8	50%
Robin Lopez C · 7'0" 277 · 30	13.2	2	20%	1	1	0	0	0	3	1	0	0-0	-	1-5	20%	0-0	-
Paul Zipser F · 6'8" 226 · 24	32.1	10	45%	4	2	1	1	2	3	0	4	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	2-6	33%
Denzel Valentine F · 6'6" 214 · 24	22.2	11	61%	7	2	1	0	3	2	0	7	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-4	25%
Cristiano Felicio C-F · 6'9" 280 · 26	17.8	1	25%	7	2	0	0	1	3	4	3	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
David Nwaba F · 6'4" 209 · 25	12.6	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Ryan Arcidiacono G · 6'3" 195 · 24	6.6	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Omer Asik C · 7'0" 255 · 32
Lauri Markkanen F-C · 7'0" 240 · 21
Antonio Blakeney G · 6'4" 197 · 21
Cameron Payne #22 · G · 6'3" 185 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Kris Dunn #32 · G · 6'3" 205 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Tony Allen #25 · · 6'4" 213 · 36	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jameer Nelson #14 · G · 6'0" 190 · 36	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	53%	46	20	6	1	12	21	9	37	20-24	83%	18-44	41%	14-36	39%

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27 Chicago Bulls

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jerian Grant G · 6'4" 198 · 25	36.2	9	50%	4	5	0	0	3	3	1	3	6-6	100%	0-1	0%	1-5	20%
Justin Holiday F · 6'6" 185 · 29	35.7	20	91%	4	2	1	0	0	3	0	4	4-5	80%	2-3	67%	4-7	57%
Bobby Portis F · 6'10" 250 · 23	32.4	18	43%	14	4	2	0	1	2	2	12	2-4	50%	5-13	38%	2-6	33%
Zach LaVine G · 6'5" 200 · 23	31.3	27	68%	3	2	1	0	2	2	1	2	5-5	100%	5-10	50%	4-8	50%
Robin Lopez C · 7'0" 277 · 30	13.2	2	20%	1	1	0	0	0	3	1	0	0-0	-	1-5	20%	0-0	-
Paul Zipser F · 6'8" 226 · 24	32.1	10	45%	4	2	1	1	2	3	0	4	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	2-6	33%
Denzel Valentine F · 6'6" 214 · 24	22.2	11	61%	7	2	1	0	3	2	0	7	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-4	25%
Cristiano Felicio C-F · 6'9" 280 · 26	17.8	1	25%	7	2	0	0	1	3	4	3	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
David Nwaba F · 6'4" 209 · 25	12.6	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Ryan Arcidiacono G · 6'3" 195 · 24	6.6	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Omer Asik C · 7'0" 255 · 32
Lauri Markkanen F-C · 7'0" 240 · 21
Antonio Blakeney G · 6'4" 197 · 21
Cameron Payne #22 · G · 6'3" 185 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Kris Dunn #32 · G · 6'3" 205 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Tony Allen #25 · · 6'4" 213 · 36	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jameer Nelson #14 · G · 6'0" 190 · 36	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	53%	46	20	6	1	12	21	9	37	20-24	83%	18-44	41%	14-36	39%

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29 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bogdan Bogdanovic G · 6'5" 225 · 25	30.5	15	68%	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	4	6-6	100%	0-2	0%	3-7	43%
Zach Randolph C · 6'9" 250 · 37	28.6	11	42%	9	4	1	2	1	0	2	7	1-1	100%	5-10	50%	0-3	0%
Justin Jackson F · 6'8" 220 · 23	23.3	11	61%	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	4	3-4	75%	4-4	100%	0-3	0%
Willie Cauley-Stein F · 7'0" 240 · 24	16.8	7	44%	6	1	0	0	1	5	1	5	1-2	50%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
De'Aaron Fox G · 6'3" 185 · 20	16.8	5	31%	2	2	0	0	2	1	1	1	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	0-1	0%
Garrett Temple G-F · 6'5" 195 · 32	26.8	12	60%	1	3	1	0	2	1	0	1	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	2-4	50%
George Hill G · 6'3" 188 · 32	25.7	14	64%	4	5	0	0	2	3	2	2	4-5	80%	2-5	40%	2-4	50%
Buddy Hield G · 6'4" 220 · 24	21.2	11	55%	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	3-7	43%
JaKarr Sampson F · 6'9" 207 · 25	18.3	9	90%	6	0	0	1	0	2	2	4	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-1	100%
Kosta Koufos C · 7'0" 265 · 29	16.6	5	63%	6	0	0	1	0	1	1	5	1-3	33%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Vince Carter G-F · 6'6" 220 · 41	15.5	4	40%	1	1	0	0	2	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Malachi Richardson G · 6'6" 205 · 22
Georgios Papagiannis C · 7'1" 240 · 21
Skal Labissiere #7 · F-C · 6'10" 235 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Harry Giles III #20 · F-C · 6'10" 240 · 20	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Frank Mason #10 · G · 5'11" 190 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jack Cooley #45 · C · 6'10" 274 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	104	54%	45	22	5	5	11	17	9	36	19-25	76%	26-52	50%	11-32	34%

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Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.