Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, February 5, 2018

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	20	Mavericks	41%	107	101
	17	Clippers	59%	110	104

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
DAL	103.1	98	94.2
LAC	107.2	97	101.1

Scoring Opportunities

DAL

+12

-20

LAC

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DAL

1.11 55.5%

LAC

1.09 54.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	DAL	LAC
Q4 - 0:00.0	DAL	Ferrell Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T20)	101 0%	104 100%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DAL

1.11 55.5%

LAC

1.09 54.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DAL

50%

LAC

62%

Midrange

DAL

36%

LAC

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DAL

25.5

40%

61%

LAC

15.0

37%

56%

Free Throws

DAL

90%

LAC

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Mavericks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
W. Matthews	23	68%	11.5 / 17
D. Harris	16	100%	8.0 / 8
D. Smith Jr.	12	35%	6.0 / 17
D. Nowitzki	12	50%	6.0 / 12
J. Barea	12	67%	6.0 / 9
Y. Ferrell	9	41%	4.5 / 11
D. Powell	8	67%	4.0 / 6
S. Mejri	6	60%	3.0 / 5
M. Kleber	3	38%	1.5 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Clippers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Gallinari	28	88%	14.0 / 16
T. Harris	19	45%	9.5 / 21
L. Williams	15	44%	7.5 / 17
A. Bradley	12	60%	6.0 / 10
S. Dekker	10	71%	5.0 / 7
D. Jordan	6	50%	3.0 / 6
M. Harrell	4	67%	2.0 / 3
T. Wallace	4	40%	2.0 / 5
M. Teodosic	3	25%	1.5 / 6
W. Johnson	3	75%	1.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DAL

+12

-20

LAC

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DAL

1.11 55.5%

LAC

1.09 54.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Season Averages		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	106.1 110.2	DAL 103.1 LAC 107.2 +4.2
Pace	95.8 98.7	DAL 94.2 LAC 101.1 +6.9
Avg. Poss. Time	15.5 14.4	DAL 15.3 LAC 14.2 +1.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	51.3% 52.7%	DAL 51.9% LAC 54.0% +2.1%
TO %	12.2% 14.2%	DAL 18.4% LAC 12.3% +6.1%
ORB %	18.0% 23.5%	DAL 17.1% +3.2% LAC 13.9%
FTrt	21.7 29.9	DAL 25.0 +11.2 LAC 13.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	59.4% 55.5%	DAL 66.7% LAC 66.7%
STL %	7.3% 7.7%	DAL 5.1% LAC 10.3% +5.2%
BLK %	7.0% 7.9%	DAL 8.3% +0.4% LAC 7.9%

Season Averages		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	53.1% 55.0%	DAL 55.5% +0.8% LAC 54.7%
Rim FG%	59.9% 60.9%	DAL 50.0% LAC 61.8% +11.8%
Mid FG%	39.9% 39.0%	DAL 36.4% LAC 42.3% +5.9%
3P %	36.0% 35.4%	DAL 40.5% +3.5% LAC 37.0%
FT %	76.3% 74.3%	DAL 90.0% +6.7% LAC 83.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	30.2% 42.4%	DAL 20.0% LAC 39.1% +19.1%
Mid Att. %	31.6% 26.2%	DAL 27.5% +2.4% LAC 29.9%
3P Att. %	38.2% 31.4%	DAL 52.5% +21.5% LAC 31.0%

Game Totals	DAL	LAC
Possessions	98	97
Possession Minutes	25.0	23.0
Points	101	104
Rebounds	38	39
Assists	22	28
Steals	5	10
Blocks	5	3
Turnovers (Team)	20 (0)	13 (0)
Fouls	23	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (5)	5 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (6)	34 (3)
Field Goals	33-80	42-87
At-the-Rim FG	8-16	21-34
Midrange FG	8-22	11-26
2-Point FG	16-38	32-60
3-Point FG	17-42	10-27
Free Throws	18-20	10-12
Fast Break Pts	8	16
2nd Chance Pts	16	9
Points in Paint	20	48
Pts off Turnovers	9	17
Bench Points	37	36
Biggest Lead	10	9

BOXSCORES

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20 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dennis Smith Jr. G · 6'3" 195 · 20	34.5	12	35%	3	5	0	0	9	6	0	3	0-0	-	3-10	30%	2-7	29%
Wesley Matthews F · 6'5" 220 · 31	34.5	23	68%	2	5	1	2	2	2	0	2	2-2	100%	0-4	0%	7-12	58%
Yogi Ferrell G · 6'0" 180 · 25	32.1	9	41%	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-6	17%
Dwight Powell C · 6'10" 240 · 27	29.3	8	67%	10	4	0	1	2	3	3	7	4-6	67%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Dirk Nowitzki F · 7'0" 245 · 40	25.1	12	50%	6	0	0	1	1	1	0	6	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	2-7	29%
J.J. Barea G · 6'0" 185 · 34	22.8	12	67%	3	5	1	0	2	0	0	3	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	2-4	50%
Salah Mejri C · 7'2" 235 · 32	22.1	6	60%	7	0	1	1	1	3	3	4	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Devin Harris G · 6'3" 185 · 35	20.4	16	100%	1	1	1	0	2	5	0	1	6-6	100%	2-3	67%	2-3	67%
Maxi Kleber F · 6'10" 240 · 26	19.3	3	38%	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-3	33%
Josh McRoberts · 6'10" 240 · 31
Jalen Jones F · 6'7" 220 · 25
Johnathan Motley F · 6'10" 230 · 23
Harrison Barnes #40 · F · 6'8" 225 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Nerlens Noel #3 · C · 6'11" 220 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Seth Curry #30 · G · 6'2" 185 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Dorian Finney-Smith #10 · F · 6'7" 220 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	56%	38	22	5	5	20	23	7	31	18-20	90%	16-38	42%	17-42	40%

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20 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dennis Smith Jr. G · 6'3" 195 · 20	34.5	12	35%	3	5	0	0	9	6	0	3	0-0	-	3-10	30%	2-7	29%
Wesley Matthews F · 6'5" 220 · 31	34.5	23	68%	2	5	1	2	2	2	0	2	2-2	100%	0-4	0%	7-12	58%
Yogi Ferrell G · 6'0" 180 · 25	32.1	9	41%	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-6	17%
Dwight Powell C · 6'10" 240 · 27	29.3	8	67%	10	4	0	1	2	3	3	7	4-6	67%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Dirk Nowitzki F · 7'0" 245 · 40	25.1	12	50%	6	0	0	1	1	1	0	6	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	2-7	29%
J.J. Barea G · 6'0" 185 · 34	22.8	12	67%	3	5	1	0	2	0	0	3	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	2-4	50%
Salah Mejri C · 7'2" 235 · 32	22.1	6	60%	7	0	1	1	1	3	3	4	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Devin Harris G · 6'3" 185 · 35	20.4	16	100%	1	1	1	0	2	5	0	1	6-6	100%	2-3	67%	2-3	67%
Maxi Kleber F · 6'10" 240 · 26	19.3	3	38%	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-3	33%
Josh McRoberts · 6'10" 240 · 31
Jalen Jones F · 6'7" 220 · 25
Johnathan Motley F · 6'10" 230 · 23
Harrison Barnes #40 · F · 6'8" 225 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Nerlens Noel #3 · C · 6'11" 220 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Seth Curry #30 · G · 6'2" 185 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Dorian Finney-Smith #10 · F · 6'7" 220 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	56%	38	22	5	5	20	23	7	31	18-20	90%	16-38	42%	17-42	40%

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17 Los Angeles Clippers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tobias Harris F · 6'8" 226 · 26	35.0	19	45%	5	2	3	0	1	3	0	5	0-2	0%	8-15	53%	1-5	20%
Danilo Gallinari F · 6'10" 225 · 29	34.0	28	88%	5	2	0	0	1	1	1	4	6-6	100%	5-8	63%	4-5	80%
DeAndre Jordan C · 6'11" 265 · 30	33.3	6	50%	13	3	1	2	2	1	1	12	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Avery Bradley G · 6'2" 180 · 27	27.5	12	60%	3	2	3	0	1	2	1	2	0-0	-	6-7	86%	0-3	0%
Milos Teodosic G · 6'5" 196 · 31	21.9	3	25%	2	6	0	0	2	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-5	20%
Lou Williams G · 6'1" 175 · 31	33.5	15	44%	4	8	1	0	4	0	0	4	4-4	100%	4-10	40%	1-5	20%
Wesley Johnson F · 6'7" 215 · 31	17.2	3	75%	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Montrezl Harrell F-C · 6'8" 240 · 24	14.7	4	67%	2	1	1	1	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Tyrone Wallace G · 6'5" 198 · 24	13.7	4	40%	1	2	1	0	2	4	0	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Sam Dekker F · 6'9" 230 · 24	9.3	10	71%	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-2	100%
Sindarius Thornwell G · 6'5" 215 · 23
Jawun Evans G · 6'0" 190 · 22
Boban Marjanovic C · 7'3" 290 · 29
Patrick Beverley #21 · G · 6'1" 185 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
C.J. Williams #9 · F-G · 6'5" 230 · 28	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Austin Rivers #25 · G · 6'4" 200 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	104	55%	39	28	10	3	13	16	5	34	10-12	83%	32-60	53%	10-27	37%

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Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.