Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	12	Bucks	49%	106	103
	20	Knicks	51%	107	89

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
MIL	106.2	97	104.2
NYK	90.8	98	91.6

Scoring Opportunities

MIL

+12

-14

NYK

+18

-17

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIL

1.06 53.1%

NYK

0.90 44.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	MIL	NYK
Q4 - 0:21.0	NYK	Dotson 2' Driving Layup (7 PTS)	103 100%	88 0%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIL

1.06 53.1%

NYK

0.90 44.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIL

47%

NYK

65%

Midrange

MIL

58%

NYK

34%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIL

12.0

31%

46%

NYK

7.5

22%

33%

Free Throws

MIL

78%

NYK

67%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Bucks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
G. Antetokounmpo	23	44%	11.5 / 26
E. Bledsoe	23	82%	11.5 / 14
K. Middleton	20	63%	10.0 / 16
S. Kilpatrick	16	62%	8.0 / 13
J. Parker	10	50%	5.0 / 10
T. Maker	7	70%	3.5 / 5
M. Plumlee	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Terry	2	50%	1.0 / 2
T. Snell	0	-	0.0 / 2
S. Brown	0	-	0.0 / 3
T. Zeller	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Knicks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
E. Kanter	19	59%	9.5 / 16
C. Lee	14	44%	7.0 / 16
K. Porziņģis	10	71%	5.0 / 7
M. Beasley	9	38%	4.5 / 12
T. Burke	9	64%	4.5 / 7
T. Hardaway	8	31%	4.0 / 13
D. Dotson	8	67%	4.0 / 6
D. McDermott	4	40%	2.0 / 5
J. Jack	2	17%	1.0 / 6
K. O'Quinn	2	100%	1.0 / 1
F. Ntilikina	2	33%	1.0 / 3
W. Hernangomez	2	100%	1.0 / 1
L. Thomas	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIL

+12

-14

NYK

+18

-17

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIL

1.06 53.1%

NYK

0.90 44.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Season Averages		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	109.7 106.8	MIL 106.2 NYK 90.8 +15.4
Pace	96.3 97.1	MIL 104.2 +12.6 NYK 91.6
Avg. Poss. Time	14.6 15.0	MIL 13.8 +1.9 NYK 15.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	53.1% 51.0%	MIL 50.0% +5.6% NYK 44.4%
TO %	13.6% 14.5%	MIL 13.8% +3.5% NYK 17.3%
ORB %	20.5% 24.1%	MIL 18.2% NYK 23.9% +5.7%
FTrt	28.1 21.7	MIL 32.9 +16.0 NYK 16.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	58.5% 57.3%	MIL 62.2% +8.1% NYK 54.1%
STL %	9.1% 6.9%	MIL 11.3% +6.2% NYK 5.1%
BLK %	9.5% 9.2%	MIL 9.1% NYK 10.7% +1.6%

Season Averages		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	55.6% 53.2%	MIL 53.1% +8.2% NYK 44.9%
Rim FG%	61.9% 60.5%	MIL 46.7% NYK 64.5% +17.8%
Mid FG%	42.7% 41.8%	MIL 57.7% +23.4% NYK 34.3%
3P %	35.5% 35.2%	MIL 30.8% +9.1% NYK 21.7%
FT %	78.2% 78.6%	MIL 77.8% +11.1% NYK 66.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	37.9% 33.9%	MIL 36.6% +1.8% NYK 34.8%
Mid Att. %	32.4% 39.5%	MIL 31.7% +7.6% NYK 39.3%
3P Att. %	29.7% 26.6%	MIL 31.7% +5.9% NYK 25.8%

Game Totals	MIL	NYK
Possessions	97	98
Possession Minutes	22.3	25.7
Points	103	89
Rebounds	43	47
Assists	23	20
Steals	11	5
Blocks	6	6
Turnovers (Team)	14 (1)	17 (3)
Fouls	17	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	8 (4)	11 (7)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	35 (1)	36 (2)
Field Goals	37-82	37-89
At-the-Rim FG	14-30	20-31
Midrange FG	15-26	12-35
2-Point FG	29-56	32-66
3-Point FG	8-26	5-23
Free Throws	21-27	10-15
Fast Break Pts	12	9
2nd Chance Pts	16	13
Points in Paint	34	48
Pts off Turnovers	28	18
Bench Points	30	36
Biggest Lead	21	9

BOXSCORES

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12 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Giannis Antetokounmpo F · 6'11" 243 · 23	34.6	23	44%	11	6	1	2	3	3	1	10	3-6	50%	10-23	43%	0-0	-
Khris Middleton F · 6'7" 222 · 26	34.0	20	63%	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	4	2-3	67%	6-11	55%	2-4	50%
Eric Bledsoe G · 6'1" 205 · 28	29.1	23	82%	5	8	1	0	2	1	1	4	7-7	100%	5-5	100%	2-6	33%
Thon Maker C · 7'1" 223 · 21	22.1	7	70%	3	0	1	2	0	2	2	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Tony Snell G · 6'7" 221 · 26	18.4	0	0%	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jabari Parker F · 6'8" 250 · 23	20.4	10	50%	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	3	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	0-2	0%
Marshall Plumlee C · 7'0" 250 · 26	19.9	2	50%	6	2	0	0	0	2	2	4	2-4	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jason Terry G · 6'2" 185 · 40	19.5	2	50%	1	2	2	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Sterling Brown G · 6'6" 230 · 23	17.3	0	0%	3	0	2	0	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Sean Kilpatrick G · 6'4" 212 · 28	16.8	16	62%	2	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	5-5	100%	1-3	33%	3-8	38%
Tyler Zeller C · 7'0" 250 · 28	6.0	0	0%	2	0	0	0	3	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Xavier Munford G · 6'4" 173 · 26	1.8	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
John Henson C · 6'11" 229 · 27
Malcolm Brogdon #13 · G · 6'5" 215 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Mirza Teletovic #35 · F · 6'9" 242 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
D.J. Wilson #5 · F · 6'10" 236 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Matthew Dellavedova #8 · G · 6'4" 198 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	53%	43	23	11	6	14	17	8	35	21-27	78%	29-56	52%	8-26	31%

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12 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Giannis Antetokounmpo F · 6'11" 243 · 23	34.6	23	44%	11	6	1	2	3	3	1	10	3-6	50%	10-23	43%	0-0	-
Khris Middleton F · 6'7" 222 · 26	34.0	20	63%	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	4	2-3	67%	6-11	55%	2-4	50%
Eric Bledsoe G · 6'1" 205 · 28	29.1	23	82%	5	8	1	0	2	1	1	4	7-7	100%	5-5	100%	2-6	33%
Thon Maker C · 7'1" 223 · 21	22.1	7	70%	3	0	1	2	0	2	2	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Tony Snell G · 6'7" 221 · 26	18.4	0	0%	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jabari Parker F · 6'8" 250 · 23	20.4	10	50%	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	3	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	0-2	0%
Marshall Plumlee C · 7'0" 250 · 26	19.9	2	50%	6	2	0	0	0	2	2	4	2-4	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jason Terry G · 6'2" 185 · 40	19.5	2	50%	1	2	2	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Sterling Brown G · 6'6" 230 · 23	17.3	0	0%	3	0	2	0	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Sean Kilpatrick G · 6'4" 212 · 28	16.8	16	62%	2	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	5-5	100%	1-3	33%	3-8	38%
Tyler Zeller C · 7'0" 250 · 28	6.0	0	0%	2	0	0	0	3	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Xavier Munford G · 6'4" 173 · 26	1.8	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
John Henson C · 6'11" 229 · 27
Malcolm Brogdon #13 · G · 6'5" 215 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Mirza Teletovic #35 · F · 6'9" 242 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
D.J. Wilson #5 · F · 6'10" 236 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Matthew Dellavedova #8 · G · 6'4" 198 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	53%	43	23	11	6	14	17	8	35	21-27	78%	29-56	52%	8-26	31%

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20 New York Knicks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Courtney Lee G · 6'5" 200 · 32	35.6	14	44%	4	2	0	0	2	3	0	4	0-0	-	4-10	40%	2-6	33%
Enes Kanter C · 6'11" 245 · 26	32.2	19	59%	16	1	1	0	4	3	6	10	3-3	100%	8-15	53%	0-0	-
Tim Hardaway Jr. F · 6'5" 205 · 26	26.4	8	31%	5	4	1	0	1	3	1	4	0-0	-	4-8	50%	0-5	0%
Jarrett Jack G · 6'3" 200 · 34	17.0	2	17%	0	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-5	20%	0-1	0%
Kristaps Porzingis F · 7'2" 240 · 23	11.4	10	71%	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	1-4	25%	3-3	100%	1-2	50%
Michael Beasley F · 6'9" 235 · 29	24.1	9	38%	6	2	0	1	5	3	1	5	3-4	75%	3-9	33%	0-2	0%
Trey Burke G · 6'1" 191 · 25	22.5	9	64%	3	2	1	0	1	0	0	3	0-1	0%	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
Lance Thomas F · 6'8" 235 · 30	16.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Doug McDermott F · 6'6" 225 · 26	15.1	4	40%	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Damyean Dotson G · 6'5" 210 · 24	14.1	8	67%	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	3	1-1	100%	2-3	67%	1-3	33%
Kyle O'Quinn C-F · 6'10" 250 · 28	12.9	2	100%	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Frank Ntilikina G · 6'5" 190 · 20	10.2	2	33%	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Willy Hernangomez C · 6'11" 240 · 24	1.8	2	100%	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Ron Baker #31 · G · 6'4" 220 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Joakim Noah #13 · C · 6'11" 230 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Luke Kornet #2 · C-F · 7'1" 250 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Isaiah Hicks #4 · F · 6'9" 242 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	89	45%	47	20	5	6	17	19	11	36	10-15	67%	32-66	48%	5-23	22%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.