Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, February 8, 2018

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	10	Celtics	47%	103	110
	13	Wizards	53%	104	104

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
BOS	101.9	108	103.0
WAS	96.3	107	92.3

Scoring Opportunities

BOS

+11

-18

101

WAS

+19

-20

106

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

BOS

1.09 54.5%

WAS

0.96 48.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	BOS	WAS
OT1 - 0:14.0	BOS	SUB: Rozier FOR Theis	109 100%	104 0%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

BOS

1.09 54.5%

WAS

0.96 48.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

BOS

47%

WAS

53%

Midrange

BOS

58%

WAS

23%

3PT | Effective 3PT

BOS

13.5

35%

52%

WAS

18.0

46%

69%

Free Throws

BOS

68%

WAS

79%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Celtics

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Irving	28	64%	14.0 / 22
J. Brown	18	53%	9.0 / 17
M. Morris	15	47%	7.5 / 16
A. Horford	12	67%	6.0 / 9
T. Rozier	12	75%	6.0 / 8
J. Tatum	11	46%	5.5 / 12
D. Theis	7	70%	3.5 / 5
G. Monroe	5	42%	2.5 / 6
A. Baynes	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
O. Porter Jr.	27	68%	13.5 / 20
B. Beal	18	33%	9.0 / 27
T. Satoransky	14	58%	7.0 / 12
K. Oubre	11	46%	5.5 / 12
M. Gortat	10	56%	5.0 / 9
M. Morris	9	64%	4.5 / 7
M. Scott	7	70%	3.5 / 5
I. Mahinmi	6	50%	3.0 / 6
J. Meeks	2	100%	1.0 / 1
T. Frazier	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

BOS

+11

-18

101

WAS

+19

-20

106

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

BOS

1.09 54.5%

WAS

0.96 48.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Season Averages		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	107.5 108.8	BOS 101.9 WAS 96.3 +5.6
Pace	96.1 97.1	BOS 103.0 +10.7 WAS 92.3
Avg. Poss. Time	15.1 14.9	BOS 14.0 +1.6 WAS 15.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	51.8% 52.5%	BOS 51.8% +5.5% WAS 46.3%
TO %	13.8% 14.4%	BOS 15.4% +2.1% WAS 17.5%
ORB %	21.4% 23.5%	BOS 16.7% WAS 30.9% +14.2%
FTrt	24.3 25.4	BOS 40.5 +20.5 WAS 20.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	58.6% 63.1%	BOS 41.0% WAS 73.7% +32.7%
STL %	7.6% 8.1%	BOS 8.3% WAS 10.3% +2.0%
BLK %	8.0% 7.8%	BOS 8.7% +1.8% WAS 6.9%

Season Averages		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	53.8% 54.7%	BOS 54.5% +6.4% WAS 48.1%
Rim FG%	56.8% 61.1%	BOS 46.9% WAS 52.9% +6.0%
Mid FG%	40.9% 42.5%	BOS 57.7% +34.8% WAS 22.9%
3P %	37.7% 37.5%	BOS 34.6% WAS 46.2% +11.6%
FT %	77.1% 77.2%	BOS 67.6% WAS 78.9% +11.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	33.1% 31.0%	BOS 38.1% +2.3% WAS 35.8%
Mid Att. %	31.1% 38.0%	BOS 31.0% +5.9% WAS 36.8%
3P Att. %	35.7% 31.0%	BOS 31.0% +3.6% WAS 27.4%

Game Totals	BOS	WAS
Possessions	108	107
Possession Minutes	25.2	27.8
Points	110	103
Rebounds	45	52
Assists	16	28
Steals	9	11
Blocks	6	4
Turnovers (Team)	18 (0)	20 (2)
Fouls	20	23
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (4)	17 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	38 (3)	35 (5)
Field Goals	39-84	38-95
At-the-Rim FG	15-32	18-34
Midrange FG	15-26	8-35
2-Point FG	30-58	26-69
3-Point FG	9-26	12-26
Free Throws	23-34	15-19
Fast Break Pts	7	16
2nd Chance Pts	13	13
Points in Paint	42	40
Pts off Turnovers	24	25
Bench Points	39	26
Biggest Lead	10	5

BOXSCORES

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10 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaylen Brown G · 6'6" 223 · 21	37.5	18	53%	4	3	1	1	2	3	0	4	1-2	50%	4-8	50%	3-8	38%
Jayson Tatum F · 6'8" 210 · 20	36.5	11	46%	2	1	2	0	3	2	0	2	5-7	71%	3-6	50%	0-3	0%
Al Horford F · 6'10" 245 · 32	34.5	12	67%	7	2	1	2	3	4	2	5	1-2	50%	4-4	100%	1-4	25%
Kyrie Irving G · 6'2" 195 · 26	33.4	28	64%	5	6	1	1	3	0	0	5	9-10	90%	8-14	57%	1-5	20%
Aron Baynes C · 6'10" 260 · 31	14.3	2	33%	5	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Marcus Morris F · 6'9" 235 · 28	31.4	15	47%	8	0	1	0	1	3	1	7	4-4	100%	4-12	33%	1-2	50%
Terry Rozier G · 6'1" 190 · 24	29.8	12	75%	2	1	0	0	4	4	0	2	2-4	50%	2-4	50%	2-2	100%
Daniel Theis F-C · 6'9" 243 · 26	27.8	7	70%	6	0	0	1	1	1	1	5	0-2	0%	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Greg Monroe C-F · 6'11" 265 · 28	19.7	5	42%	6	2	2	0	1	2	2	4	1-3	33%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Semi Ojeleye F · 6'7" 235 · 23
Abdel Nader F · 6'6" 230 · 24
Guerschon Yabusele F · 6'8" 265 · 22
Kadeem Allen G · 6'3" 200 · 25
Gordon Hayward #20 · F · 6'8" 226 · 28	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jabari Bird #26 · G · 6'6" 198 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Shane Larkin #8 · G · 5'11" 175 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Marcus Smart #36 · G · 6'3" 220 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	110	55%	45	16	9	6	18	20	7	38	23-34	68%	30-58	52%	9-26	35%

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10 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaylen Brown G · 6'6" 223 · 21	37.5	18	53%	4	3	1	1	2	3	0	4	1-2	50%	4-8	50%	3-8	38%
Jayson Tatum F · 6'8" 210 · 20	36.5	11	46%	2	1	2	0	3	2	0	2	5-7	71%	3-6	50%	0-3	0%
Al Horford F · 6'10" 245 · 32	34.5	12	67%	7	2	1	2	3	4	2	5	1-2	50%	4-4	100%	1-4	25%
Kyrie Irving G · 6'2" 195 · 26	33.4	28	64%	5	6	1	1	3	0	0	5	9-10	90%	8-14	57%	1-5	20%
Aron Baynes C · 6'10" 260 · 31	14.3	2	33%	5	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Marcus Morris F · 6'9" 235 · 28	31.4	15	47%	8	0	1	0	1	3	1	7	4-4	100%	4-12	33%	1-2	50%
Terry Rozier G · 6'1" 190 · 24	29.8	12	75%	2	1	0	0	4	4	0	2	2-4	50%	2-4	50%	2-2	100%
Daniel Theis F-C · 6'9" 243 · 26	27.8	7	70%	6	0	0	1	1	1	1	5	0-2	0%	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Greg Monroe C-F · 6'11" 265 · 28	19.7	5	42%	6	2	2	0	1	2	2	4	1-3	33%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Semi Ojeleye F · 6'7" 235 · 23
Abdel Nader F · 6'6" 230 · 24
Guerschon Yabusele F · 6'8" 265 · 22
Kadeem Allen G · 6'3" 200 · 25
Gordon Hayward #20 · F · 6'8" 226 · 28	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jabari Bird #26 · G · 6'6" 198 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Shane Larkin #8 · G · 5'11" 175 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Marcus Smart #36 · G · 6'3" 220 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	110	55%	45	16	9	6	18	20	7	38	23-34	68%	30-58	52%	9-26	35%

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13 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bradley Beal G · 6'4" 207 · 25	44.4	18	33%	5	9	3	0	1	1	0	5	1-1	100%	4-18	22%	3-9	33%
Otto Porter Jr. F · 6'8" 198 · 25	40.2	27	68%	11	2	2	0	2	2	3	8	6-6	100%	6-13	46%	3-5	60%
Tomas Satoransky G · 6'7" 210 · 26	34.1	14	58%	4	4	1	2	3	2	2	2	0-0	-	4-10	40%	2-2	100%
Marcin Gortat C · 6'11" 240 · 34	30.6	10	56%	10	4	1	1	3	2	4	6	2-4	50%	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Markieff Morris F · 6'10" 245 · 28	28.9	9	64%	5	5	1	1	3	6	0	5	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	1-2	50%
Kelly Oubre Jr. F-G · 6'8" 203 · 22	33.0	11	46%	6	0	0	0	2	2	3	3	3-4	75%	1-6	17%	2-4	50%
Ian Mahinmi C · 6'11" 262 · 31	15.8	6	50%	5	0	1	0	1	4	4	1	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Mike Scott F · 6'8" 237 · 30	15.4	7	70%	4	1	0	0	2	2	0	4	0-1	0%	2-2	100%	1-3	33%
Tim Frazier G · 6'1" 170 · 27	14.1	0	0%	2	2	2	0	3	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Jodie Meeks G · 6'4" 210 · 30	8.6	2	100%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Jason Smith F-C · 7'0" 240 · 32
Chris McCullough F · 6'9" 215 · 23
John Wall #2 · G · 6'4" 210 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Devin Robinson #7 · F · 6'8" 200 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	103	48%	52	28	11	4	20	23	17	35	15-19	79%	26-69	38%	12-26	46%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.