Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, February 11, 2018

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	6	Jazz	51%	103	115
	11	Blazers	49%	102	96

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
UTA	119.8	96	85.1
POR	100.0	96	110.1

Scoring Opportunities

UTA

+16

-13

POR

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

UTA

1.15 57.5%

POR

1.05 52.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	UTA	POR
Q4 - 0:44.0	POR	MISS McCollum 1' Running Layup	113 100%	96 0%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

UTA

1.15 57.5%

POR

1.05 52.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

UTA

50%

POR

44%

Midrange

UTA

38%

POR

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

UTA

19.5

50%

75%

POR

13.5

36%

54%

Free Throws

UTA

91%

POR

84%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Mitchell	27	52%	13.5 / 26
J. Ingles	24	92%	12.0 / 13
D. Favors	15	54%	7.5 / 14
J. Crowder	15	63%	7.5 / 12
R. Gobert	12	50%	6.0 / 12
R. Neto	7	44%	3.5 / 8
J. Jerebko	6	100%	3.0 / 3
A. Burks	5	63%	2.5 / 4
R. O'Neale	4	40%	2.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Lillard	39	67%	19.5 / 29
C. McCollum	22	46%	11.0 / 24
S. Napier	10	63%	5.0 / 8
A. Aminu	8	50%	4.0 / 8
E. Davis	8	67%	4.0 / 6
M. Harkless	5	42%	2.5 / 6
P. Connaughton	2	100%	1.0 / 1
E. Turner	2	33%	1.0 / 3
J. Nurkić	0	-	0.0 / 4
Z. Collins	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

UTA

+16

-13

POR

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

UTA

1.15 57.5%

POR

1.05 52.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Season Averages		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	108.1 109.0	UTA 119.8 +19.8 POR 100.0
Pace	96.0 96.6	UTA 85.1 POR 110.1 +24.9
Avg. Poss. Time	15.4 15.3	UTA 16.9 POR 13.1 +3.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	52.7% 51.1%	UTA 54.0% +7.7% POR 46.3%
TO %	14.7% 13.5%	UTA 11.7% +0.7% POR 12.4%
ORB %	21.5% 23.2%	UTA 34.0% +21.5% POR 12.5%
FTrt	26.0 24.0	UTA 25.0 POR 30.9 +5.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	58.6% 49.6%	UTA 56.1% +7.6% POR 48.5%
STL %	8.9% 7.2%	UTA 8.3% +1.0% POR 7.3%
BLK %	9.0% 8.7%	UTA 7.1% +0.6% POR 6.5%

Season Averages		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	54.9% 53.7%	UTA 57.5% +4.8% POR 52.7%
Rim FG%	61.4% 56.2%	UTA 50.0% +6.2% POR 43.8%
Mid FG%	39.3% 41.7%	UTA 37.5% POR 41.7% +4.2%
3P %	36.6% 36.6%	UTA 50.0% +14.0% POR 36.0%
FT %	77.9% 80.0%	UTA 90.9% +6.9% POR 84.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	35.6% 35.2%	UTA 43.2% +3.7% POR 39.5%
Mid Att. %	28.8% 32.4%	UTA 27.3% +2.4% POR 29.6%
3P Att. %	35.7% 32.4%	UTA 29.5% POR 30.9% +1.3%

Game Totals	UTA	POR
Possessions	96	96
Possession Minutes	27.1	20.9
Points	115	96
Rebounds	58	37
Assists	23	16
Steals	8	7
Blocks	4	4
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	13 (0)
Fouls	22	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (0)	6 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	42 (1)	31 (0)
Field Goals	41-88	33-81
At-the-Rim FG	19-38	14-32
Midrange FG	9-24	10-24
2-Point FG	28-62	24-56
3-Point FG	13-26	9-25
Free Throws	20-22	21-25
Fast Break Pts	16	8
2nd Chance Pts	19	6
Points in Paint	44	30
Pts off Turnovers	11	14
Bench Points	33	22
Biggest Lead	25	11

BOXSCORES

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6 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Donovan Mitchell G · 6'3" 215 · 21	36.8	27	52%	6	2	1	0	3	2	5	1	5-5	100%	8-19	42%	2-5	40%
Rudy Gobert C · 7'1" 258 · 26	34.0	12	50%	11	3	0	2	2	3	2	9	6-7	86%	3-9	33%	0-0	-
Royce O'Neale G · 6'6" 226 · 25	33.1	4	40%	11	6	2	1	2	4	2	9	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Derrick Favors F · 6'10" 265 · 27	31.3	15	54%	11	0	2	1	1	2	4	7	1-2	50%	7-13	54%	0-0	-
Joe Ingles F · 6'8" 220 · 30	29.8	24	92%	5	4	2	0	2	3	0	5	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	6-9	67%
Jae Crowder F · 6'6" 235 · 28	28.7	15	63%	5	3	1	0	3	2	0	5	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	3-7	43%
Jonas Jerebko F · 6'10" 231 · 31	19.6	6	100%	6	0	0	0	0	4	1	5	3-3	100%	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Raul Neto G · 6'1" 179 · 26	14.6	7	44%	2	5	0	0	0	2	1	1	1-1	100%	3-8	38%	0-0	-
Alec Burks G · 6'5" 214 · 27	7.8	5	63%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Ekpe Udoh C-F · 6'10" 245 · 31	4.2	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Erik McCree F · 6'8" 225 · 24
Georges Niang F · 6'7" 230 · 25
Naz Mitrou-Long G · 6'4" 218 · 25
Dante Exum #11 · G · 6'5" 214 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Tony Bradley #13 · C-F · 6'11" 248 · 20	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Ricky Rubio #3 · G · 6'4" 190 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Thabo Sefolosha #22 · F · 6'7" 220 · 34	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	115	57%	58	23	8	4	13	22	16	42	20-22	91%	28-62	45%	13-26	50%

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6 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Donovan Mitchell G · 6'3" 215 · 21	36.8	27	52%	6	2	1	0	3	2	5	1	5-5	100%	8-19	42%	2-5	40%
Rudy Gobert C · 7'1" 258 · 26	34.0	12	50%	11	3	0	2	2	3	2	9	6-7	86%	3-9	33%	0-0	-
Royce O'Neale G · 6'6" 226 · 25	33.1	4	40%	11	6	2	1	2	4	2	9	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Derrick Favors F · 6'10" 265 · 27	31.3	15	54%	11	0	2	1	1	2	4	7	1-2	50%	7-13	54%	0-0	-
Joe Ingles F · 6'8" 220 · 30	29.8	24	92%	5	4	2	0	2	3	0	5	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	6-9	67%
Jae Crowder F · 6'6" 235 · 28	28.7	15	63%	5	3	1	0	3	2	0	5	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	3-7	43%
Jonas Jerebko F · 6'10" 231 · 31	19.6	6	100%	6	0	0	0	0	4	1	5	3-3	100%	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Raul Neto G · 6'1" 179 · 26	14.6	7	44%	2	5	0	0	0	2	1	1	1-1	100%	3-8	38%	0-0	-
Alec Burks G · 6'5" 214 · 27	7.8	5	63%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Ekpe Udoh C-F · 6'10" 245 · 31	4.2	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Erik McCree F · 6'8" 225 · 24
Georges Niang F · 6'7" 230 · 25
Naz Mitrou-Long G · 6'4" 218 · 25
Dante Exum #11 · G · 6'5" 214 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Tony Bradley #13 · C-F · 6'11" 248 · 20	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Ricky Rubio #3 · G · 6'4" 190 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Thabo Sefolosha #22 · F · 6'7" 220 · 34	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	115	57%	58	23	8	4	13	22	16	42	20-22	91%	28-62	45%	13-26	50%

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11 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Damian Lillard G · 6'2" 195 · 28	38.6	39	67%	3	1	0	1	2	2	1	2	13-13	100%	10-17	59%	2-8	25%
CJ McCollum G · 6'3" 190 · 26	36.8	22	46%	3	4	2	0	5	3	0	3	4-6	67%	6-17	35%	2-5	40%
Maurice Harkless F · 6'9" 220 · 25	30.1	5	42%	5	2	2	1	1	4	2	3	0-2	0%	1-2	50%	1-3	33%
Al-Farouq Aminu F · 6'9" 220 · 27	22.9	8	50%	4	2	0	1	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-5	40%
Jusuf Nurkic C · 7'0" 290 · 23	13.6	0	0%	3	2	0	1	0	3	1	2	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-0	-
Ed Davis F-C · 6'10" 245 · 29	28.5	8	67%	12	0	1	0	2	4	2	10	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Shabazz Napier G · 6'1" 175 · 27	16.6	10	63%	3	0	1	0	2	2	0	3	4-4	100%	0-2	0%	2-4	50%
Pat Connaughton G · 6'5" 209 · 25	16.1	2	100%	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Evan Turner F-G · 6'7" 220 · 29	15.5	2	33%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Zach Collins F-C · 6'11" 250 · 20	14.3	0	0%	2	3	0	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Meyers Leonard C · 7'1" 255 · 26	5.9	0	0%	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jake Layman F · 6'9" 210 · 24	1.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Caleb Swanigan F-C · 6'8" 250 · 21
CJ Wilcox #23 · G · 6'5" 195 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Wade Baldwin IV #2 · G · 6'4" 202 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	96	53%	37	16	7	4	13	22	6	31	21-25	84%	24-56	43%	9-25	36%

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Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.