Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	10	Wizards	64%	110	118
	27	Knicks	36%	105	113

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
WAS	116.8	101	94.5
NYK	113.0	100	107.4

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+10

-11

100

NYK

+15

-10

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.18 59.0%

NYK

1.08 53.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	NYK
Q4 -		End of 4th Quarter.	118 100%	113 0%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.18 59.0%

NYK

1.08 53.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

74%

NYK

49%

Midrange

WAS

51%

NYK

43%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

10.5

32%

48%

NYK

13.5

47%

71%

Free Throws

WAS

79%

NYK

78%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Beal	36	78%	18.0 / 23
O. Porter Jr.	22	58%	11.0 / 19
I. Mahinmi	17	71%	8.5 / 12
M. Morris	13	59%	6.5 / 11
T. Satoransky	9	56%	4.5 / 8
J. Meeks	8	100%	4.0 / 4
M. Gortat	6	43%	3.0 / 7
M. Scott	5	42%	2.5 / 6
K. Oubre	2	17%	1.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Knicks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Hardaway	37	74%	18.5 / 25
E. Kanter	24	67%	12.0 / 18
M. Beasley	16	33%	8.0 / 24
C. Lee	8	33%	4.0 / 12
E. Mudiay	8	40%	4.0 / 10
L. Thomas	8	100%	4.0 / 4
J. Jack	5	42%	2.5 / 6
F. Ntilikina	5	83%	2.5 / 3
K. O'Quinn	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+10

-11

100

NYK

+15

-10

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.18 59.0%

NYK

1.08 53.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Season Averages		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	108.8 106.8	WAS 116.8 +3.8 NYK 113.0
Pace	97.1 97.1	WAS 94.5 NYK 107.4 +12.9
Avg. Poss. Time	14.9 15.0	WAS 15.2 NYK 13.4 +1.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	52.5% 51.0%	WAS 58.5% +7.5% NYK 51.0%
TO %	14.4% 14.5%	WAS 11.1% NYK 8.7% +2.4%
ORB %	23.5% 24.1%	WAS 16.2% NYK 22.0% +5.8%
FTrt	25.4 21.7	WAS 21.6 +3.0 NYK 18.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	63.1% 57.3%	WAS 64.6% +17.9% NYK 46.7%
STL %	8.1% 6.9%	WAS 6.9% NYK 7.0% +0.1%
BLK %	7.8% 9.2%	WAS 11.5% +10.0% NYK 1.5%

Season Averages		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	54.7% 53.2%	WAS 59.0% +5.2% NYK 53.8%
Rim FG%	61.1% 60.5%	WAS 74.2% +25.4% NYK 48.8%
Mid FG%	42.5% 41.8%	WAS 51.4% +8.2% NYK 43.2%
3P %	37.5% 35.2%	WAS 31.8% NYK 47.4% +15.6%
FT %	77.2% 78.6%	WAS 78.9% +1.1% NYK 77.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	31.0% 33.9%	WAS 35.2% NYK 42.3% +7.0%
Mid Att. %	38.0% 39.5%	WAS 39.8% NYK 38.1% +1.6%
3P Att. %	31.0% 26.6%	WAS 25.0% +5.4% NYK 19.6%

Game Totals	WAS	NYK
Possessions	101	100
Possession Minutes	25.6	22.4
Points	118	113
Rebounds	45	42
Assists	31	21
Steals	7	7
Blocks	9	1
Turnovers (Team)	11 (1)	10 (0)
Fouls	16	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (4)	11 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	39 (2)	31 (1)
Field Goals	48-88	45-97
At-the-Rim FG	23-31	20-41
Midrange FG	18-35	16-37
2-Point FG	41-66	36-78
3-Point FG	7-22	9-19
Free Throws	15-19	14-18
Fast Break Pts	18	6
2nd Chance Pts	13	14
Points in Paint	58	50
Pts off Turnovers	15	15
Bench Points	32	23
Biggest Lead	8	27

BOXSCORES

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.

10 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bradley Beal G · 6'4" 207 · 25	42.9	36	78%	5	7	3	2	3	2	0	5	4-4	100%	10-15	67%	4-7	57%
Otto Porter Jr. F · 6'8" 198 · 25	38.3	22	58%	6	3	1	1	0	0	1	5	2-3	67%	10-15	67%	0-3	0%
Tomas Satoransky G · 6'7" 210 · 26	33.2	9	56%	4	11	0	3	1	2	1	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-4	25%
Markieff Morris F · 6'10" 245 · 28	24.9	13	59%	7	3	0	0	1	3	0	7	0-0	-	5-9	56%	1-2	50%
Marcin Gortat C · 6'11" 240 · 34	22.3	6	43%	8	3	1	0	0	2	1	7	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Kelly Oubre Jr. F-G · 6'8" 203 · 22	27.0	2	17%	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-4	0%
Ian Mahinmi C · 6'11" 262 · 31	25.6	17	71%	8	0	1	3	4	4	3	5	5-8	63%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Jodie Meeks G · 6'4" 210 · 30	13.3	8	100%	2	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	4-4	100%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Mike Scott F · 6'8" 237 · 30	12.5	5	42%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-2	50%
Devin Robinson F · 6'8" 200 · 23
Chris McCullough F · 6'9" 215 · 23
Jason Smith #14 · F-C · 7'0" 240 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Tim Frazier #8 · G · 6'1" 170 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
John Wall #2 · G · 6'4" 210 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	59%	45	31	7	9	11	16	6	39	15-19	79%	41-66	62%	7-22	32%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

10 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bradley Beal G · 6'4" 207 · 25	42.9	36	78%	5	7	3	2	3	2	0	5	4-4	100%	10-15	67%	4-7	57%
Otto Porter Jr. F · 6'8" 198 · 25	38.3	22	58%	6	3	1	1	0	0	1	5	2-3	67%	10-15	67%	0-3	0%
Tomas Satoransky G · 6'7" 210 · 26	33.2	9	56%	4	11	0	3	1	2	1	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-4	25%
Markieff Morris F · 6'10" 245 · 28	24.9	13	59%	7	3	0	0	1	3	0	7	0-0	-	5-9	56%	1-2	50%
Marcin Gortat C · 6'11" 240 · 34	22.3	6	43%	8	3	1	0	0	2	1	7	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Kelly Oubre Jr. F-G · 6'8" 203 · 22	27.0	2	17%	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-4	0%
Ian Mahinmi C · 6'11" 262 · 31	25.6	17	71%	8	0	1	3	4	4	3	5	5-8	63%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Jodie Meeks G · 6'4" 210 · 30	13.3	8	100%	2	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	4-4	100%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Mike Scott F · 6'8" 237 · 30	12.5	5	42%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-2	50%
Devin Robinson F · 6'8" 200 · 23
Chris McCullough F · 6'9" 215 · 23
Jason Smith #14 · F-C · 7'0" 240 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Tim Frazier #8 · G · 6'1" 170 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
John Wall #2 · G · 6'4" 210 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	59%	45	31	7	9	11	16	6	39	15-19	79%	41-66	62%	7-22	32%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

27 New York Knicks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Michael Beasley F · 6'9" 235 · 29	40.2	16	33%	11	3	0	0	1	1	2	9	0-0	-	8-24	33%	0-0	-
Tim Hardaway Jr. F · 6'5" 205 · 26	39.9	37	74%	5	1	2	0	3	2	1	4	3-3	100%	8-15	53%	6-9	67%
Enes Kanter C · 6'11" 245 · 26	34.3	24	67%	14	5	0	1	0	3	6	8	6-8	75%	9-15	60%	0-0	-
Courtney Lee G · 6'5" 200 · 32	33.7	8	33%	3	3	0	0	0	4	0	3	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-5	0%
Jarrett Jack G · 6'3" 200 · 34	27.5	5	42%	2	5	1	0	1	1	0	2	2-2	100%	0-4	0%	1-1	100%
Emmanuel Mudiay G · 6'3" 200 · 22	20.5	8	40%	3	3	2	0	4	1	1	2	2-3	67%	3-7	43%	0-2	0%
Lance Thomas F · 6'8" 235 · 30	19.3	8	100%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-2	100%
Kyle O'Quinn C-F · 6'10" 250 · 28	13.7	2	50%	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Frank Ntilikina G · 6'5" 190 · 20	11.0	5	83%	0	1	2	0	1	3	0	0	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Luke Kornet C-F · 7'1" 250 · 23
Trey Burke G · 6'1" 191 · 25
Isaiah Hicks F · 6'9" 242 · 24
Damyean Dotson G · 6'5" 210 · 24
Kristaps Porzingis #6 · F-C · 7'2" 240 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Joakim Noah #13 · C · 6'11" 230 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Ron Baker #31 · G · 6'4" 220 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	54%	42	21	7	1	10	17	11	31	14-18	78%	36-78	46%	9-19	47%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).

indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.