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All Games Wednesday, December 26, 2018
FinalWin Prob.pScore
10
Nuggets
51%113
103
20
Spurs
49%112
111
ORTG#PossPace
DEN logo DEN
103.0100101.6
SAS logo SAS
111.010098.5

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

SpursNuggetsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

SpursNuggetsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventDENSAS
Q4 - End of 4th Quarter.103
0%
111
100%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN
1.00 50.0%
SAS
1.09 54.4%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
DEN
12
22
55%
SAS
19
27
70%
Midrange
DEN
5
28
18%
SAS
13
31
42%
3PT | Effective 3PT
DEN
18
27.0
40
45%
68%
SAS
10
15.0
32
31%
47%
Free Throws
DEN
15
23
65%
SAS
17
22
77%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
DEN logo Nuggets
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
J. Hernangomez2784%13.5 / 16
M. Beasley2265%11.0 / 17
M. Morris1550%7.5 / 15
T. Craig1063%5.0 / 8
J. Murray925%4.5 / 18
M. Plumlee750%3.5 / 7
B. Goodwin5125%2.5 / 2
N. Jokić433%2.0 / 6
T. Lyles433%2.0 / 6
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
SAS logo Spurs
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
D. DeRozan3071%15.0 / 21
L. Aldridge2775%13.5 / 18
B. Forbes1563%7.5 / 12
M. Belinelli1267%6.0 / 9
D. White744%3.5 / 8
R. Gay627%3.0 / 11
D. Bertans6100%3.0 / 3
J. Poeltl650%3.0 / 6
P. Mills217%1.0 / 6
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DEN
88
+17
-12
105
SAS
90
+11
-10
101
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN
1.00 50.0%
SAS
1.09 54.4%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
112.6
112.6
DEN 103.0
SAS 111.0 +8.0
Pace
98.0
98.6
DEN 101.6 +3.1
SAS 98.5
Avg. Poss. Time
14.7
15.0
DEN 14.2 +0.4
SAS 14.6
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
52.7%
53.4%
DEN 48.9%
SAS 52.2% +3.3%
TO %
13.1%
11.9%
DEN 11.5%
SAS 9.1% +2.4%
ORB %
26.6%
20.9%
DEN 20.4% +4.1%
SAS 16.3%
FTrt
23.2
23.7
DEN 25.6 +1.2
SAS 24.4
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
65.3%
58.0%
DEN 82.9% +13.9%
SAS 69.0%
STL %
7.9%
6.2%
DEN 10.0% +4.0%
SAS 6.0%
BLK %
8.2%
8.3%
DEN 5.2%
SAS 8.0% +2.8%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
54.5%
56.0%
DEN 50.0%
SAS 54.4% +4.4%
Rim FG%
59.6%
62.7%
DEN 54.5%
SAS 70.4% +15.9%
Mid FG%
43.3%
44.0%
DEN 17.9%
SAS 41.9% +24.0%
3P %
35.1%
39.2%
DEN 45.0% +13.7%
SAS 31.3%
FT %
75.5%
81.8%
DEN 65.2%
SAS 77.3% +12.1%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
37.5%
27.8%
DEN 24.4%
SAS 30.0% +5.6%
Mid Att. %
27.7%
43.7%
DEN 31.1% +3.3%
SAS 34.4%
3P Att. %
34.8%
28.6%
DEN 44.4% +8.9%
SAS 35.6%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.9 and 2.9.
Game TotalsDENSAS
Possessions100100
Possession Minutes23.624.4
Points103111
Rebounds4750
Assists2929
Steals106
Blocks34
Turnovers (Team)12 (1)10 (0)
Fouls1717
Off. Rebounds (Team)11 (6)7 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)36 (3)43 (0)
Field Goals35-9042-90
At-the-Rim FG12-2219-27
Midrange FG5-2813-31
2-Point FG17-5032-58
3-Point FG18-4010-32
Free Throws15-2317-22
Fast Break Pts1515
2nd Chance Pts1610
Points in Paint2848
Pts off Turnovers129
Bench Points4626
Biggest Lead618

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
10 Denver Nuggets
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
Juancho Hernangomez
#41 · SF · 6'9" 230 · 23
35.8
27
84%
13
1
0
0
0
1
2
11
5-6
83%
2-6
33%
6-7
86%
Torrey Craig
#3 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 28
34.4
10
63%
8
2
0
2
0
3
3
5
2-4
50%
1-3
33%
2-3
67%
Nikola Jokic
#15 · PF · 6'11" 284 · 24
31.0
4
33%
4
10
2
0
5
1
2
2
1-2
50%
0-4
0%
1-1
100%
Mason Plumlee
#24 · C · 6'10" 254 · 29
29.2
7
50%
6
3
2
1
2
1
2
4
1-5
20%
3-5
60%
0-0
-
Jamal Murray
#27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 22
27.0
9
25%
5
2
1
0
2
3
1
4
0-0
-
3-11
27%
1-8
13%
Malik Beasley
#25 · SG · 6'5" 196 · 22
30.3
22
65%
7
3
1
0
0
2
1
6
2-2
100%
4-7
57%
4-12
33%
Monte Morris
#11 · PG · 6'2" 183 · 23
29.5
15
50%
0
4
3
0
2
2
0
0
0-0
-
3-11
27%
3-5
60%
Trey Lyles
#7 · PF · 6'10" 234 · 23
14.6
4
33%
2
1
1
0
1
1
0
2
2-2
100%
1-2
50%
0-3
0%
Thomas Welsh
#45 · C · 7'0" 255 · 23
2.9
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
Brandon Goodwin
#6 · PG · 6'2" 180 · 23
2.9
5
125%
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
2-2
100%
0-1
0%
1-1
100%
Tyler Lydon
#20 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 23
2.5
0
0%
2
1
0
0
0
1
0
2
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
Nick Young
#34 · SG · 6'7" 210 · 34
DNP - Coach's Decision
Isaiah Thomas
#0 · PG · 5'9" 185 · 30
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right hip surgery
Will Barton
#5 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 28
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right hip and core muscle surgery
Michael Porter Jr.
#1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 20
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Lower back surgery
Gary Harris
#14 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 24
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right hip
Jarred Vanderbilt
#8 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 20
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right foot surgery
Paul Millsap
#4 · PF · 6'8" 246 · 34
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right big toe fracture
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
103
50%
47
29
10
3
12
17
11
36
15-23
65%
17-50
34%
18-40
45%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.