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All Games Tuesday, January 8, 2019
FinalWin Prob.pScore
7
Nuggets
49%107
103
16
Heat
51%108
99
ORTG#PossPace
DEN logo DEN
110.89397.3
MIA logo MIA
110.09086.2

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatNuggetsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatNuggetsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventDENMIA
Q4 - End of 4th Quarter.103
100%
99
0%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN
1.07 53.6%
MIA
1.02 51.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
DEN
19
23
83%
MIA
25
29
86%
Midrange
DEN
13
37
35%
MIA
5
23
22%
3PT | Effective 3PT
DEN
9
13.5
27
33%
50%
MIA
8
12.0
31
26%
39%
Free Throws
DEN
12
17
71%
MIA
15
25
60%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
DEN logo Nuggets
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
N. Jokić2966%14.5 / 22
J. Murray1845%9.0 / 20
T. Lyles15107%7.5 / 7
P. Millsap1250%6.0 / 12
T. Craig1169%5.5 / 8
M. Beasley950%4.5 / 9
M. Plumlee563%2.5 / 4
M. Morris429%2.0 / 7
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
D. Waiters1568%7.5 / 11
K. Olynyk1359%6.5 / 11
B. Adebayo1393%6.5 / 7
J. Richardson1246%6.0 / 13
H. Whiteside1250%6.0 / 12
J. Winslow1250%6.0 / 12
D. Wade1050%5.0 / 10
R. McGruder550%2.5 / 5
T. Johnson433%2.0 / 6
J. Johnson338%1.5 / 4
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DEN
77
+20
-16
97
MIA
84
+9
-6
93
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN
1.07 53.6%
MIA
1.02 51.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
112.6
107.5
DEN 110.8 +0.8
MIA 110.0
Pace
98.0
98.1
DEN 97.3 +11.0
MIA 86.2
Avg. Poss. Time
14.7
15.0
DEN 14.8 +1.9
MIA 16.7
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
52.7%
51.5%
DEN 52.3% +1.7%
MIA 50.6%
TO %
13.1%
14.3%
DEN 14.5%
MIA 6.0% +8.5%
ORB %
26.6%
24.8%
DEN 35.6% +14.7%
MIA 20.9%
FTrt
23.2
24.7
DEN 19.5
MIA 30.1 +10.6
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
65.3%
61.2%
DEN 78.0% +14.8%
MIA 63.2%
STL %
7.9%
7.8%
DEN 2.2%
MIA 10.0% +7.8%
BLK %
8.2%
10.2%
DEN 3.8%
MIA 13.3% +9.5%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
54.5%
52.9%
DEN 53.6% +2.6%
MIA 51.0%
Rim FG%
59.6%
60.8%
DEN 82.6%
MIA 86.2% +3.6%
Mid FG%
43.3%
36.8%
DEN 35.1% +13.4%
MIA 21.7%
3P %
35.1%
34.9%
DEN 33.3% +7.5%
MIA 25.8%
FT %
75.5%
69.5%
DEN 70.6% +10.6%
MIA 60.0%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
37.5%
37.3%
DEN 26.4%
MIA 34.9% +8.5%
Mid Att. %
27.7%
25.9%
DEN 42.5%
MIA 27.7% +14.8%
3P Att. %
34.8%
36.8%
DEN 31.0%
MIA 37.3% +6.3%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.25 and 2.25.
Game TotalsDENMIA
Possessions9390
Possession Minutes22.925.1
Points10399
Rebounds5038
Assists3224
Steals29
Blocks28
Turnovers (Team)16 (0)6 (0)
Fouls2018
Off. Rebounds (Team)16 (4)9 (0)
Def. Rebounds (Team)34 (5)29 (1)
Field Goals41-8738-83
At-the-Rim FG19-2325-29
Midrange FG13-375-23
2-Point FG32-6030-52
3-Point FG9-278-31
Free Throws12-1715-25
Fast Break Pts78
2nd Chance Pts2311
Points in Paint5256
Pts off Turnovers914
Bench Points2455
Biggest Lead96

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
7 Denver Nuggets
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
Nikola Jokic
#15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 24
39.6
29
66%
11
10
1
0
3
3
3
8
6-6
100%
10-19
53%
1-2
50%
Torrey Craig
#3 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 28
38.6
11
69%
16
4
0
0
1
2
6
10
0-0
-
1-2
50%
3-7
43%
Malik Beasley
#25 · SG · 6'5" 196 · 22
36.3
9
50%
1
2
0
0
3
4
0
1
0-0
-
3-3
100%
1-6
17%
Jamal Murray
#27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 22
31.6
18
45%
4
6
0
1
1
4
2
2
3-4
75%
6-15
40%
1-4
25%
Paul Millsap
#4 · PF · 6'8" 246 · 34
30.3
12
50%
9
4
1
1
1
0
4
5
2-3
67%
5-9
56%
0-2
0%
Monte Morris
#11 · PG · 6'2" 183 · 24
24.6
4
29%
2
2
0
0
1
1
0
2
0-0
-
2-6
33%
0-1
0%
Trey Lyles
#7 · PF · 6'10" 234 · 23
15.2
15
107%
3
0
0
0
1
0
0
3
0-0
-
3-3
100%
3-5
60%
Mason Plumlee
#24 · PF · 6'10" 254 · 29
10.9
5
63%
3
3
0
0
2
5
0
3
1-4
25%
2-3
67%
0-0
-
Juancho Hernangomez
#41 · SF · 6'9" 230 · 23
8.8
0
0%
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
Brandon Goodwin
#6 · PG · 6'2" 180 · 23
4.2
0
0%
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
Tyler Lydon
#20 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 23
DNP - Coach's Decision
Isaiah Thomas
#0 · PG · 5'9" 185 · 30
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Hip Surgery
Michael Porter Jr.
#1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 21
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Low Back Surgery
Will Barton
#5 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 28
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Hip/Core Muscle Surgery
Gary Harris
#14 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 24
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Left Hamstring Tightness
Jarred Vanderbilt
#8 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 20
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Foot Surgery
Thomas Welsh
#45 · C · 7'0" 255 · 23
Inactive - G League Team | Two-Way
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
103
54%
50
32
2
2
16
20
16
34
12-17
71%
32-60
53%
9-27
33%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.