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All Games Thursday, January 10, 2019
FinalWin Prob.pScore
6
Celtics
51%107
99
15
Heat
49%106
115
ORTG#PossPace
BOS logo BOS
104.295106.2
MIA logo MIA
119.89686.8

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatCelticsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatCelticsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventBOSMIA
Q4 - End of 4th Quarter.99
0%
115
100%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

BOS
1.00 50.0%
MIA
1.12 55.8%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
BOS
11
24
46%
MIA
17
30
57%
Midrange
BOS
13
31
42%
MIA
11
27
41%
3PT | Effective 3PT
BOS
12
18.0
34
35%
53%
MIA
18
27.0
39
46%
69%
Free Throws
BOS
15
17
88%
MIA
5
8
63%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
BOS logo Celtics
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
K. Irving2258%11.0 / 19
M. Smart1875%9.0 / 12
J. Tatum1765%8.5 / 13
M. Morris1771%8.5 / 12
G. Hayward643%3.0 / 7
G. Yabusele5125%2.5 / 2
T. Rozier422%2.0 / 9
A. Horford213%1.0 / 8
R. Williams2100%1.0 / 1
J. Brown220%1.0 / 5
D. Theis225%1.0 / 4
B. Wanamaker250%1.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
D. Wade1986%9.5 / 11
J. Richardson1875%9.0 / 12
D. Jones1478%7.0 / 9
J. Winslow1372%6.5 / 9
J. Johnson1243%6.0 / 14
T. Johnson1169%5.5 / 8
H. Whiteside950%4.5 / 9
B. Adebayo867%4.0 / 6
D. Waiters833%4.0 / 12
R. McGruder338%1.5 / 4
K. Olynyk0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

BOS
85
+13
-10
98
MIA
88
+15
-8
103
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

BOS
1.00 50.0%
MIA
1.12 55.8%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
111.8
107.5
BOS 104.2
MIA 119.8 +15.6
Pace
100.0
98.1
BOS 106.2 +19.4
MIA 86.8
Avg. Poss. Time
14.2
15.0
BOS 13.6 +3.0
MIA 16.6
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
53.4%
51.5%
BOS 47.2%
MIA 57.3% +10.1%
TO %
12.4%
14.3%
BOS 10.2%
MIA 8.3% +1.9%
ORB %
21.7%
24.8%
BOS 18.0%
MIA 26.3% +8.3%
FTrt
21.5
24.7
BOS 19.1 +10.8
MIA 8.3
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
62.4%
61.2%
BOS 55.6%
MIA 71.7% +16.1%
STL %
8.5%
7.8%
BOS 5.3%
MIA 7.3% +2.0%
BLK %
9.7%
10.2%
BOS 14.0% +6.7%
MIA 7.3%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
55.3%
52.9%
BOS 50.0%
MIA 55.8% +5.8%
Rim FG%
61.6%
60.8%
BOS 45.8%
MIA 56.7% +10.9%
Mid FG%
43.1%
36.8%
BOS 41.9% +1.2%
MIA 40.7%
3P %
36.5%
34.9%
BOS 35.3%
MIA 46.2% +10.9%
FT %
80.2%
69.5%
BOS 88.2% +25.7%
MIA 62.5%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
32.1%
37.3%
BOS 27.0%
MIA 31.3% +4.3%
Mid Att. %
29.8%
25.9%
BOS 34.8%
MIA 28.1% +6.7%
3P Att. %
38.1%
36.8%
BOS 38.2%
MIA 40.6% +2.4%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.25 and 2.25.
Game TotalsBOSMIA
Possessions9596
Possession Minutes21.526.5
Points99115
Rebounds3751
Assists2033
Steals57
Blocks84
Turnovers (Team)10 (1)8 (1)
Fouls1018
Off. Rebounds (Team)9 (4)10 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)28 (7)41 (0)
Field Goals36-8946-96
At-the-Rim FG11-2417-30
Midrange FG13-3111-27
2-Point FG24-5528-57
3-Point FG12-3418-39
Free Throws15-175-8
Fast Break Pts1516
2nd Chance Pts1214
Points in Paint3046
Pts off Turnovers1018
Bench Points2360
Biggest Lead426

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
6 Boston Celtics
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
Kyrie Irving
#11 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 27
34.7
22
58%
5
5
1
1
3
2
0
5
0-0
-
8-13
62%
2-6
33%
Marcus Smart
#36 · SG · 6'3" 220 · 25
33.1
18
75%
1
2
0
1
2
3
0
1
4-5
80%
1-2
50%
4-8
50%
Jayson Tatum
#0 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 21
31.6
17
65%
4
1
0
1
1
2
0
4
7-7
100%
2-7
29%
2-4
50%
Marcus Morris
#13 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 29
28.7
17
71%
6
1
1
2
0
0
2
4
0-0
-
4-8
50%
3-5
60%
Al Horford
#42 · C · 6'10" 245 · 33
23.2
2
13%
4
3
0
1
2
2
1
3
0-0
-
1-4
25%
0-4
0%
Gordon Hayward
#20 · SF · 6'8" 226 · 29
20.1
6
43%
1
4
0
0
0
0
0
1
0-0
-
3-5
60%
0-2
0%
Terry Rozier
#12 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 25
16.7
4
22%
6
0
1
0
1
0
2
4
2-2
100%
1-5
20%
0-3
0%
Robert Williams III
#44 · C · 6'9" 249 · 21
14.3
2
100%
4
1
1
1
0
1
0
4
0-0
-
1-1
100%
0-0
-
Jaylen Brown
#7 · SF · 6'6" 223 · 22
13.8
2
20%
2
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0-1
0%
1-4
25%
0-1
0%
Daniel Theis
#27 · PF · 6'9" 243 · 27
13.1
2
25%
3
0
1
0
0
0
3
0
0-0
-
1-4
25%
0-0
-
Semi Ojeleye
#37 · SF · 6'7" 235 · 24
5.5
0
0%
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
Brad Wanamaker
#9 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 29
2.5
2
50%
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
2-2
100%
0-1
0%
0-0
-
Guerschon Yabusele
#30 · PF · 6'8" 265 · 23
2.5
5
125%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
1-1
100%
1-1
100%
Aron Baynes
#46 · C · 6'10" 260 · 32
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Left Fourth Metacarpal Fracture
Jabari Bird
#26 · SG · 6'6" 198 · 25
Inactive - Personal
PJ Dozier
#35 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22
Inactive - G League Team | Two-Way
RJ Hunter
#4 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 25
Inactive - G League Team | Two-Way
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
99
50%
37
20
5
8
10
10
9
28
15-17
88%
24-55
44%
12-34
35%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.