Final Win Prob. pScore
241%97
107
459%100
86
ORTG#PossPace
SAS logo Spurs
127.48476.2
MIA logo Heat
102.48493.5

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatSpursQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatSpursQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventSASMIA
Q4 - 0:00.0MIA107
100%
86
0%
Q4 - 0:00.0MIAHEAT Rebound107
100%
86
0.1%
Q4 - 0:00.0MIAMISS Douglas 26' 3PT Jump Shot107
100%
86
0.1%
Q4 - 0:11.0SASAyres Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)107
99.9%
86
0.1%
Q4 - 0:11.0SASAyres Free Throw 1 of 2 (2 PTS)106
99.9%
86
0.1%
Q4 - 0:11.0MIABattier S.FOUL (P2.PN)105
86
Q4 - 0:30.0MIAJones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Douglas 1 AST)105
99.9%
86
0.1%
Q4 - 0:36.0MIADouglas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)105
99.9%
83
0.1%
Q4 - 0:38.0SASMISS Bonner Free Throw 2 of 2105
99.9%
83
0.1%
Q4 - 0:38.0SASBonner Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)105
99.9%
83
0.1%
Q4 - 0:38.0MIAOden P.FOUL (P1.PN)104
83
Q4 - 0:55.0MIAJones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Chalmers 5 AST)104
99.9%
83
0.1%
Q4 - 1:04SASBaynes 5' Jump Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Bonner 2 AST)104
99.9%
80
0.1%
Q4 - 1:19SASBaynes REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)102
99.9%
80
0.1%
Q4 - 1:20SASMISS Ayres Free Throw 2 of 2102
99.9%
80
0.1%
Q4 - 1:20MIASUB: Oden FOR Haslem102
80
Q4 - 1:20SASAyres Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)102
99.9%
80
0.1%
Q4 - 1:20MIABattier P.FOUL (P1.PN)101
80
Q4 - 1:32MIAJones 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)101
99.9%
80
0.1%
Q4 - 1:41SASJoseph 1' Driving Layup (2 PTS)101
99.9%
77
0.1%
Q4 - 2:03MIAJones 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Chalmers 4 AST)99
99.9%
77
0.1%
Q4 - 2:12SASBelinelli 1' Layup (4 PTS) (Ayres 1 AST)99
99.9%
75
0.1%
Q4 - 2:15SASAyres REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)97
99.9%
75
0.1%
Q4 - 2:17SASMISS Belinelli 25' 3PT Jump Shot97
99.9%
75
0.1%
Q4 - 2:29SASBonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)97
99.9%
75
0.1%
Q4 - 2:30MIAMISS Chalmers 26' 3PT Jump Shot97
99.9%
75
0.1%
Q4 - 2:43SASSUB: Ayres FOR Mills97
75
Q4 - 2:43SASSUB: Bonner FOR Diaw97
75
Q4 - 2:43SASSUB: Baynes FOR Duncan97
75
Q4 - 2:43MIASUB: Douglas FOR Cole97
75
Q4 - 2:43MIASUB: Jones FOR Bosh97
75
Q4 - 2:43MIAHEAT Timeout: Regular (Full 5 Short 2)97
75
Q4 - 2:43SASJoseph P.FOUL (P1.PN)97
75
Q4 - 2:58SASBelinelli 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)97
99.9%
75
0.1%
Q4 - 3:12MIABosh 1' Driving Layup (12 PTS)95
99.9%
75
0.1%
Q4 - 3:20MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)95
99.9%
73
0.1%
Q4 - 3:21SASMISS Mills 19' Fadeaway Jumper95
99.9%
73
0.1%
Q4 - 3:38SASSUB: Joseph FOR Parker95
73
Q4 - 3:38SASSUB: Belinelli FOR Ginobili95
73
Q4 - 3:38SASSUB: Mills FOR Leonard95
73
Q4 - 3:38MIASUB: Chalmers FOR Allen95
73
Q4 - 3:38MIASUB: Battier FOR James95
73
Q4 - 3:38SASSpurs Timeout: Short (Reg.4 Short 1)95
73
Q4 - 3:46SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:5 Def:9)95
99.9%
73
0.1%
Q4 - 3:47MIAMISS James 24' 3PT Jump Shot95
99.9%
73
0.1%
Q4 - 4:13SASGinobili 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (7 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)95
99.9%
73
0.1%
Q4 - 4:34MIACole 2' Layup (4 PTS)93
99.9%
73
0.1%
Q4 - 4:50MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)93
99.9%
71
0.1%
Q4 - 4:51SASMISS Diaw 10' Driving Jump Shot93
99.9%
71
0.1%
Q4 - 5:04MIASUB: Cole FOR Wade93
71
Q4 - 5:0493
71
Q4 - 5:04MIAWade P.FOUL (P4.PN)93
71
Q4 - 5:05SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:5 Def:8)93
99.9%
71
0.1%
Q4 - 5:06SASMISS Parker 3PT Jump Shot93
99.9%
71
0.1%
Q4 - 5:12MIAWade Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T13)93
99.9%
71
0.1%
Q4 - 5:30SASDuncan 2' Layup (10 PTS) (Diaw 9 AST)93
99.9%
71
0.1%
Q4 - 5:40SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:10)91
99.9%
71
0.1%
Q4 - 5:41MIAMISS Bosh 24' 3PT Jump Shot91
99.9%
71
0.1%
Q4 - 5:45MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)91
99.8%
71
0.2%
Q4 - 5:47MIAMISS James 25' 3PT Jump Shot91
99.9%
71
0.1%
Q4 - 6:08SASLeonard 4' Jump Shot (20 PTS)91
99.6%
71
0.4%
Q4 - 6:27MIABosh 14' Jump Shot (10 PTS)89
99.6%
71
0.4%
Q4 - 6:37MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)89
99.7%
69
0.3%
Q4 - 6:38SASMISS Duncan 14' Jump Shot89
99.7%
69
0.3%
Q4 - 7:05MIAAllen 12' Jump Bank Shot (8 PTS)89
99.6%
69
0.4%
Q4 - 7:25SASGinobili Foul Turnover (P4.T14)89
99.7%
67
0.3%
Q4 - 7:25SASGinobili Offensive Charge Foul (P3.T4)89
67
Q4 - 7:37MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)89
99.8%
67
0.2%
Q4 - 7:37MIASUB: Allen FOR Cole89
66
Q4 - 7:37MIAHEAT Timeout: Short (Full 4 Short 2)89
66
Q4 - 7:37MIAHEAT Rebound89
66
Q4 - 7:37MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 289
99.8%
66
0.2%
Q4 - 7:37SASDuncan S.FOUL (P3.T3)89
66
Q4 - 7:47SASLeonard 17' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)89
99.8%
66
0.2%
Q4 - 8:00SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)87
99.7%
66
0.3%
Q4 - 8:01MIAMISS Haslem 1' Layup87
99.4%
66
0.6%
Q4 - 8:05MIAHEAT Rebound87
99.3%
66
0.7%
Q4 - 8:05MIAMISS Bosh 2' Layup87
99.5%
66
0.5%
Q4 - 8:11SASWade STEAL (4 STL)87
99.4%
66
0.6%
Q4 - 8:32MIASUB: James FOR Chalmers87
66
Q4 - 8:32SASSUB: Leonard FOR Mills87
66
Q4 - 8:32MIAChalmers Foul Turnover (P1.T12)87
99.5%
66
0.5%
Q4 - 8:32MIAChalmers Offensive Charge Foul (P3.T4)87
66
Q4 - 8:46SASMills 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Diaw 8 AST)87
99.4%
66
0.6%
Q4 - 9:05SASSpurs Timeout: Regular (Reg.4 Short 0)84
66
Q4 - 9:06MIAWade 10' Step Back Jump Shot (9 PTS)84
98.5%
66
1.5%
Q4 - 9:14SASDiaw Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T12)84
98.8%
64
1.2%
Q4 - 9:31SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:9)84
99.1%
64
0.9%
Q4 - 9:32SASSUB: Ginobili FOR Green84
64
Q4 - 9:32MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 2 of 284
99.0%
64
1.0%
Q4 - 9:32SASSUB: Duncan FOR Splitter84
64
Q4 - 9:32MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)84
98.9%
64
1.1%
Q4 - 9:32SAS84
63
Q4 - 9:32SASGreen S.FOUL (P5.T2)84
63
Q4 - 9:45SASParker Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T11)84
99.1%
63
0.9%
Q4 - 9:53MIABosh P.FOUL (P2.T3)84
63
Q4 - 10:14MIAHaslem 1' Dunk (2 PTS) (Wade 4 AST)84
99.0%
63
1.0%
Q4 - 10:30SASGreen P.FOUL (P4.T1)84
61
Q4 - 10:30MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)84
99.2%
61
0.8%
Q4 - 10:31MIAMISS Wade 17' Fadeaway Jumper84
99.3%
61
0.7%
Q4 - 10:50SASParker Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T10)84
99.2%
61
0.8%
Q4 - 11:03MIAWade 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Chalmers 3 AST)84
99.2%
61
0.8%
Q4 - 11:18SASMills 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)84
99.3%
59
0.7%
Q4 - 11:25MIAHaslem P.FOUL (P1.T2)81
59
Q4 - 11:35MIASUB: Haslem FOR Andersen81
59
Q4 - 11:35MIAAndersen P.FOUL (P5.T1)81
59
Q4 - 11:44MIAAndersen 2' Layup (5 PTS) (Chalmers 2 AST)81
99.0%
59
1.0%
Q4 - 12:0081
57
Q3 - 0:00.0MIA81
99.2%
57
0.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAHEAT Rebound81
99.2%
57
0.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAAndersen REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)81
99.2%
57
0.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAMISS Andersen 1' Tip Shot81
99.3%
57
0.7%
Q3 - 0:01.0MIAMISS James 3PT Jump Shot81
99.1%
57
0.9%
Q3 - 0:09.0SASLeonard Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)81
98.9%
57
1.1%
Q3 - 0:09.0SASSUB: Joseph FOR Bonner80
57
Q3 - 0:09.0SASSpurs Rebound80
57
Q3 - 0:09.0SASMISS Leonard Free Throw 1 of 280
98.9%
57
1.1%
Q3 - 0:09.0MIAAndersen S.FOUL (P4.PN)80
57
Q3 - 0:29.0MIACole Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T11)80
98.9%
57
1.1%
Q3 - 0:47.0SASSplitter 3' Reverse Layup (6 PTS) (Bonner 1 AST)80
98.7%
57
1.3%
Q3 - 1:10MIAJames 25' 3PT Jump Shot (28 PTS)78
98.1%
57
1.9%
Q3 - 1:17MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)78
98.7%
54
1.3%
Q3 - 1:18SASMISS Leonard 21' Jump Shot78
98.8%
54
1.2%
Q3 - 1:32SASSUB: Mills FOR Parker78
54
Q3 - 1:32MIAJames Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T10)78
98.9%
54
1.1%
Q3 - 1:47SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)78
98.7%
54
1.3%
Q3 - 1:47SASParker Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)77
98.7%
54
1.3%
Q3 - 1:47SASSpurs Rebound76
54
Q3 - 1:47SASMISS Ginobili Free Throw Technical76
98.4%
54
1.6%
Q3 - 1:47MIAAndersen T.FOUL (P3.PN)76
54
Q3 - 1:47MIAAndersen S.FOUL (P3.PN)76
54
Q3 - 1:54MIAAllen Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)76
98.4%
54
1.6%
Q3 - 2:07MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)76
97.5%
54
2.5%
Q3 - 2:08SASMISS Parker Free Throw 2 of 276
97.6%
54
2.4%
Q3 - 2:08SASParker Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)76
97.9%
54
2.1%
Q3 - 2:08MIAAndersen S.FOUL (P2.PN)75
54
Q3 - 2:18SASSUB: Bonner FOR Diaw75
54
Q3 - 2:18MIASUB: Andersen FOR Bosh75
54
Q3 - 2:18SASSUB: Splitter FOR Duncan75
54
Q3 - 2:18MIALewis P.FOUL (P1.T4)75
54
Q3 - 2:27SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)75
97.6%
54
2.4%
Q3 - 2:30SASMISS Duncan 11' Jump Shot75
97.3%
54
2.7%
Q3 - 2:46MIAJames 25' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Cole 1 AST)75
97.6%
54
2.4%
Q3 - 3:04SASLeonard 3' Driving Finger Roll Layup (15 PTS) (Diaw 7 AST)75
98.0%
51
2.0%
Q3 - 3:15MIAAllen P.FOUL (P4.T3)73
51
Q3 - 3:35MIAJames 2' Driving Layup (22 PTS)73
97.6%
51
2.4%
Q3 - 3:48MIASUB: Cole FOR Wade73
49
Q3 - 3:48MIAHEAT Timeout: Regular (Full 4 Short 1)73
49
Q3 - 3:49SASLeonard 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)73
98.0%
49
2.0%
Q3 - 4:04SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:4 Def:8)70
96.7%
49
3.3%
Q3 - 4:05MIAMISS Allen 25' 3PT Jump Shot70
96.5%
49
3.5%
Q3 - 4:22SASDuncan 1' Dunk (8 PTS) (Diaw 6 AST)70
96.0%
49
4.0%
Q3 - 4:42SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)68
95.5%
49
4.5%
Q3 - 4:43MIAMISS Wade 16' Jump Shot68
95.2%
49
4.8%
Q3 - 5:05MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)68
93.8%
49
6.2%
Q3 - 5:06SASMISS Parker 17' Step Back Jump Shot68
94.1%
49
5.9%
Q3 - 5:18SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)68
94.8%
49
5.2%
Q3 - 5:19SASMISS Duncan 1' Tip Shot68
94.2%
49
5.8%
Q3 - 5:20SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)68
94.8%
49
5.2%
Q3 - 5:21SASMISS Leonard 1' Layup68
94.2%
49
5.8%
Q3 - 5:30SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)68
94.9%
49
5.1%
Q3 - 5:31MIAMISS James Free Throw 2 of 268
94.7%
49
5.3%
Q3 - 5:31MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)68
94.2%
49
5.8%
Q3 - 5:31SASLeonard S.FOUL (P3.PN)68
48
Q3 - 5:39MIASUB: Lewis FOR Chalmers68
48
Q3 - 5:39MIAHEAT Timeout: Regular (Full 3 Short 1)68
48
Q3 - 5:40SASDiaw 2' Driving Layup (8 PTS)68
94.7%
48
5.3%
Q3 - 6:04MIAWade Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)66
93.2%
48
6.8%
Q3 - 6:12SASGinobili P.FOUL (P2.T4)66
48
Q3 - 6:27SASLeonard 19' Jump Shot (10 PTS)66
92.0%
48
8.0%
Q3 - 6:40SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)64
90.9%
48
9.1%
Q3 - 6:41MIAMISS Wade 2' Reverse Layup64
90.4%
48
9.6%
Q3 - 6:46MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)64
89.3%
48
10.7%
Q3 - 6:46SASMISS Duncan 9' Hook Shot64
89.8%
48
10.2%
Q3 - 6:55SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)64
90.9%
48
9.1%
Q3 - 6:56SASMISS Diaw Free Throw 2 of 264
89.6%
48
10.4%
Q3 - 6:56SASDiaw Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)64
90.4%
48
9.6%
Q3 - 6:56MIAWade S.FOUL (P3.T2)63
48
Q3 - 7:07SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)63
88.4%
48
11.6%
Q3 - 7:08MIAMISS Bosh 11' Fadeaway Jumper63
87.9%
48
12.1%
Q3 - 7:15MIAHEAT Rebound63
86.6%
48
13.4%
Q3 - 7:15MIAMISS Chalmers 6' Driving Jump Shot63
87.9%
48
12.1%
Q3 - 7:22SASGinobili P.FOUL (P1.T3)63
48
Q3 - 7:37SASDuncan 9' Hook Shot (6 PTS) (Diaw 5 AST)63
86.7%
48
13.3%
Q3 - 7:54SAS61
48
Q3 - 7:54SASSpurs Timeout: Regular (Reg.3 Short 0)61
48
Q3 - 7:56MIAJames 2' Layup (19 PTS) (Wade 3 AST)61
85.0%
48
15.0%
Q3 - 8:06SASSUB: Ginobili FOR Green61
46
Q3 - 8:06SASLeonard L.B.FOUL (P2.T2)61
46
Q3 - 8:06MIAHEAT Rebound61
85.9%
46
14.1%
Q3 - 8:06MIAMISS Allen 5' Driving Jump Shot61
87.3%
46
12.7%
Q3 - 8:10SASBosh STEAL (2 STL)61
85.9%
46
14.1%
Q3 - 8:12SASGreen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)61
87.9%
46
12.1%
Q3 - 8:13SASMISS Parker 26' 3PT Jump Shot61
86.5%
46
13.5%
Q3 - 8:34MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)61
87.9%
46
12.1%
Q3 - 8:34MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)61
88.2%
45
11.8%
Q3 - 8:34SASParker S.FOUL (P1.T1)61
44
Q3 - 8:38MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)61
89.2%
44
10.8%
Q3 - 8:39SASMISS Green 25' 3PT Jump Shot61
89.7%
44
10.3%
Q3 - 8:54MIAChalmers 1' Driving Layup (4 PTS)61
90.8%
44
9.2%
Q3 - 9:12SASParker 21' Jump Shot (16 PTS)61
91.1%
42
8.9%
Q3 - 9:30MIAJames 2' Driving Layup (15 PTS)59
90.0%
42
10.0%
Q3 - 9:39MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)59
91.2%
40
8.8%
Q3 - 9:40SASMISS Duncan 24' 3PT Jump Shot59
91.5%
40
8.5%
Q3 - 9:57MIAChalmers P.FOUL (P2.T1)59
40
Q3 - 10:16MIAJames 9' Pullup Jump Shot (13 PTS)59
91.7%
40
8.3%
Q3 - 10:35SASParker 20' Jump Shot (14 PTS)59
92.7%
38
7.3%
Q3 - 10:55MIAJames 1' Layup (11 PTS) (Wade 2 AST)57
91.7%
38
8.3%
Q3 - 11:00SASChalmers STEAL (1 STL)57
92.7%
36
7.3%
Q3 - 11:12SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)57
92.9%
36
7.1%
Q3 - 11:13MIAMISS Wade 4' Jump Bank Shot57
92.6%
36
7.4%
Q3 - 11:36SASDiaw 15' Fadeaway Jumper (5 PTS)57
92.0%
36
8.0%
Q3 - 12:0055
36
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA55
91.0%
36
9.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)55
89.7%
36
10.3%
Q2 - 0:01.0SASMISS Ginobili Layup55
89.0%
36
11.0%
Q2 - 0:11.0MIAJames 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (9 PTS)55
89.7%
36
10.3%
Q2 - 0:29.0SASSUB: Splitter FOR Duncan55
33
Q2 - 0:29.0MIAHEAT Rebound55
92.2%
33
7.8%
Q2 - 0:30.0MIAMISS Wade 3' Running Jump Shot55
92.7%
33
7.3%
Q2 - 0:35.0SASBosh STEAL (1 STL)55
92.2%
33
7.8%
Q2 - 0:56.0SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)55
92.9%
33
7.1%
Q2 - 0:57.0MIAMISS James 1' Driving Layup55
92.7%
33
7.3%
Q2 - 1:08SASLeonard 1' Putback Dunk (8 PTS)55
91.6%
33
8.4%
Q2 - 1:10SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)53
90.1%
33
9.9%
Q2 - 1:13SASMISS Mills 3PT Jump Shot53
89.6%
33
10.4%
Q2 - 1:31MIADouglas Foul Turnover (P1.T7)53
90.2%
33
9.8%
Q2 - 1:31MIADouglas OFF.Foul (P1)53
33
Q2 - 1:36MIAHEAT Timeout: Short (Full 2 Short 1)53
33
Q2 - 1:37SASMills 24' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)53
89.4%
33
10.6%
Q2 - 1:46SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)50
86.2%
33
13.8%
Q2 - 1:47MIAMISS Bosh 2' Layup50
85.9%
33
14.1%
Q2 - 2:09SASParker 10' Pullup Jump Shot (12 PTS)50
83.8%
33
16.2%
Q2 - 2:26MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)48
82.2%
33
17.8%
Q2 - 2:26SASSUB: Mills FOR Green48
32
Q2 - 2:26MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)48
82.6%
32
17.4%
Q2 - 2:26SASGreen S.FOUL (P3.T4)48
31
Q2 - 2:33MIADouglas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)48
83.9%
31
16.1%
Q2 - 2:34SASMISS Leonard 25' 3PT Jump Shot48
84.4%
31
15.6%
Q2 - 2:49MIAChalmers 12' Jump Shot (2 PTS)48
85.5%
31
14.5%
Q2 - 3:07SASLeonard Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)48
85.9%
29
14.1%
Q2 - 3:07SASSUB: Green FOR Diaw47
29
Q2 - 3:07SASLeonard Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)47
85.6%
29
14.4%
Q2 - 3:07MIAWade S.FOUL (P2.T3)46
29
Q2 - 3:23SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)46
84.7%
29
15.3%
Q2 - 3:24MIAMISS James Free Throw 2 of 246
84.5%
29
15.5%
Q2 - 3:24MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)46
83.5%
29
16.5%
Q2 - 3:24SASDuncan S.FOUL (P2.T3)46
28
Q2 - 3:41SASDuncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)46
84.5%
28
15.5%
Q2 - 3:41MIASUB: Wade FOR Allen45
28
Q2 - 3:41MIASUB: Douglas FOR Lewis45
28
Q2 - 3:41SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)45
84.1%
28
15.9%
Q2 - 3:41MIAAllen S.FOUL (P3.T2)44
28
Q2 - 3:58SASGinobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)44
83.2%
28
16.8%
Q2 - 4:00MIAMISS Lewis 3PT Jump Shot44
82.6%
28
17.4%
Q2 - 4:16SASParker 6' Driving Hook Shot (10 PTS)44
79.9%
28
20.1%
Q2 - 4:28SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)42
78.0%
28
22.0%
Q2 - 4:29MIAMISS James 19' Jump Shot42
77.4%
28
22.6%
Q2 - 4:39MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)42
76.0%
28
24.0%
Q2 - 4:40SASMISS Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot42
76.6%
28
23.4%
Q2 - 4:54MIAJames Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)42
78.1%
28
21.9%
Q2 - 5:01MIALewis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)42
75.3%
28
24.7%
Q2 - 5:02SASLewis BLOCK (1 BLK)42
75.9%
28
24.1%
Q2 - 5:11SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)42
77.3%
28
22.7%
Q2 - 5:12SASMISS Parker 17' Jump Shot42
75.9%
28
24.1%
Q2 - 5:17MIALewis Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)42
77.3%
28
22.7%
Q2 - 5:20MIAHEAT Timeout: Regular (Full 2 Short 0)42
28
Q2 - 5:29SASGinobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Diaw 4 AST)42
75.3%
28
24.7%
Q2 - 5:32SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)39
70.8%
28
29.2%
Q2 - 5:33SASMISS Duncan 9' Turnaround Hook Shot39
69.2%
28
30.8%
Q2 - 5:48SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)39
70.8%
28
29.2%
Q2 - 5:49MIAMISS Chalmers 3PT Jump Shot39
70.1%
28
29.9%
Q2 - 6:09SASLeonard 5' Driving Bank Shot (4 PTS)39
67.5%
28
32.5%
Q2 - 6:27SASSUB: Ginobili FOR Green37
28
Q2 - 6:27MIASUB: Chalmers FOR Cole37
28
Q2 - 6:27SASSpurs Timeout: Regular (Reg.2 Short 0)37
28
Q2 - 6:27MIAAllen 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (James 2 AST)37
65.6%
28
34.4%
Q2 - 6:43SASParker 7' Running Hook Shot (8 PTS)37
69.9%
25
30.1%
Q2 - 7:03MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)35
66.9%
25
33.1%
Q2 - 7:03MIASUB: Lewis FOR Wade35
24
Q2 - 7:03SASSUB: Duncan FOR Splitter35
24
Q2 - 7:03SASSUB: Parker FOR Mills35
24
Q2 - 7:03MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)35
67.4%
24
32.6%
Q2 - 7:03SASGreen S.FOUL (P2.T2)35
23
Q2 - 7:31SASSplitter 1' Dunk (4 PTS) (Diaw 3 AST)35
69.1%
23
30.9%
Q2 - 7:52MIAAllen 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (James 1 AST)33
67.1%
23
32.9%
Q2 - 8:11SASWade STEAL (3 STL)33
70.4%
20
29.6%
Q2 - 8:21MIACole P.FOUL (P1.T1)33
20
Q2 - 8:27SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)33
72.6%
20
27.4%
Q2 - 8:28MIAMISS Wade 6' Floating Jump Shot33
72.0%
20
28.0%
Q2 - 8:4333
20
Q2 - 8:43SASSplitter Violation:Kicked Ball33
20
Q2 - 8:55SASDiaw 1' Dunk (3 PTS) (Splitter 2 AST)33
70.5%
20
29.5%
Q2 - 9:12SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)31
67.4%
20
32.6%
Q2 - 9:13MIAMISS Wade 8' Turnaround Jump Shot31
66.6%
20
33.4%
Q2 - 9:25MIASUB: James FOR Andersen31
20
Q2 - 9:25SASSplitter Violation:Kicked Ball31
20
Q2 - 9:34MIAAndersen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)31
65.0%
20
35.0%
Q2 - 9:35SASMISS Mills 25' 3PT Jump Shot31
65.7%
20
34.3%
Q2 - 9:46SASMills REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)31
67.4%
20
32.6%
Q2 - 9:47MIAMISS Andersen Free Throw 2 of 231
67.1%
20
32.9%
Q2 - 9:47SASSUB: Leonard FOR Ginobili31
20
Q2 - 9:47MIAAndersen Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)31
65.8%
20
34.2%
Q2 - 9:47SASMills S.FOUL (P2.T1)31
19
Q2 - 9:49MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)31
67.3%
19
32.7%
Q2 - 9:50MIAMISS Bosh 16' Jump Shot31
68.9%
19
31.1%
Q2 - 10:01MIAAndersen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)31
66.6%
19
33.4%
Q2 - 10:02SASMISS Diaw 25' 3PT Jump Shot31
67.4%
19
32.6%
Q2 - 10:24MIACole 1' Finger Roll Layup (2 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)31
69.2%
19
30.8%
Q2 - 10:50SASGreen 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Mills 2 AST)31
70.9%
17
29.1%
Q2 - 11:14MIAWade Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)28
66.2%
17
33.8%
Q2 - 11:42SASSplitter 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Mills 1 AST)28
63.9%
17
36.1%
Q2 - 12:0026
17
Q1 - 0:00.0SAS26
61.8%
17
38.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0SASBonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)26
61.8%
17
38.2%
Q1 - 0:01.0MIAMISS James 23' Jump Shot26
60.2%
17
39.8%
Q1 - 0:18.0SASMills 1' Layup (5 PTS) (Leonard 3 AST)26
59.1%
17
40.9%
Q1 - 0:20.0MIAJames Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3)24
56.2%
17
43.8%
Q1 - 0:32.0SASGinobili Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T5)24
54.5%
17
45.5%
Q1 - 0:49.0MIAJames 12' Fadeaway Jumper (5 PTS)24
56.3%
17
43.7%
Q1 - 1:07SASGinobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)24
58.6%
15
41.4%
Q1 - 1:07SASGinobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)23
58.2%
15
41.8%
Q1 - 1:07MIAAllen P.FOUL (P2.PN)22
15
Q1 - 1:16MIAAndersen Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)22
55.8%
15
44.2%
Q1 - 1:16MIASUB: Cole FOR Chalmers22
14
Q1 - 1:16MIAAndersen Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)22
56.4%
14
43.6%
Q1 - 1:16SASBonner S.FOUL (P1.PN)22
13
Q1 - 1:17MIAAndersen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)22
58.6%
13
41.4%
Q1 - 1:19MIAMISS Andersen 1' Layup22
59.8%
13
40.2%
Q1 - 1:33SASMills 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Splitter 1 AST)22
58.6%
13
41.4%
Q1 - 1:52SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)19
53.5%
13
46.5%
Q1 - 1:53MIAMISS Battier 25' 3PT Jump Shot19
53.0%
13
47.0%
Q1 - 2:16SASBonner 12' Floating Jump Shot (2 PTS)19
51.4%
13
48.6%
Q1 - 2:29SASSplitter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)17
49.0%
13
51.0%
Q1 - 2:30MIAMISS Allen 24' 3PT Jump Shot17
48.4%
13
51.6%
Q1 - 2:41SASMills P.FOUL (P1.T4)17
13
Q1 - 2:52SASSUB: Mills FOR Parker17
13
Q1 - 2:52MIASUB: Battier FOR Wade17
13
Q1 - 2:52SASLeonard Foul Turnover (P1.T4)17
46.9%
13
53.1%
Q1 - 2:52SASLeonard Offensive Charge Foul (P1.T3)17
13
Q1 - 2:58SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)17
49.0%
13
51.0%
Q1 - 3:00MIAMISS Andersen 1' Tip Shot17
48.4%
13
51.6%
Q1 - 3:01MIAAndersen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)17
46.4%
13
53.6%
Q1 - 3:03MIAMISS Wade 2' Layup17
48.1%
13
51.9%
Q1 - 3:10MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)17
46.4%
13
53.6%
Q1 - 3:12SASMISS Splitter 1' Layup17
47.2%
13
52.8%
Q1 - 3:27MIAJames 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)17
48.9%
13
51.1%
Q1 - 3:46SASLeonard Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)17
53.1%
10
46.9%
Q1 - 3:46SASLeonard Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)16
52.7%
10
47.3%
Q1 - 3:46MIAAllen S.FOUL (P1.PN)15
10
Q1 - 3:49SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)15
51.1%
10
48.9%
Q1 - 3:50MIAMISS Wade 2' Driving Layup15
50.4%
10
49.6%
Q1 - 3:56SASWade STEAL (2 STL)15
48.7%
10
51.3%
Q1 - 4:03MIAAndersen P.FOUL (P1.T4)15
10
Q1 - 4:16SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)15
49.8%
10
50.2%
Q1 - 4:19MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 2 of 215
49.5%
10
50.5%
Q1 - 4:19SASSUB: Bonner FOR Diaw15
10
Q1 - 4:19MIASUB: James FOR Bosh15
10
Q1 - 4:19SASSUB: Splitter FOR Duncan15
10
Q1 - 4:19MIAHEAT Rebound15
10
Q1 - 4:19MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 215
48.3%
10
51.7%
Q1 - 4:19SASDuncan S.FOUL (P1.T2)15
10
Q1 - 4:33SASParker 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS)15
47.6%
10
52.4%
Q1 - 4:59MIASUB: Andersen FOR James13
10
Q1 - 4:59SASSpurs Timeout: Regular (Reg.1 Short 0)13
10
Q1 - 5:02MIABosh 14' Jump Shot (6 PTS)13
45.1%
10
54.9%
Q1 - 5:17MIASUB: Allen FOR Lewis13
8
Q1 - 5:17SASSUB: Ginobili FOR Green13
8
Q1 - 5:17SASDiaw Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)13
46.8%
8
53.2%
Q1 - 5:26MIABosh 2' Driving Layup (4 PTS)13
48.8%
8
51.2%
Q1 - 5:37MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)13
50.4%
6
49.6%
Q1 - 5:38SASMISS Green 26' 3PT Jump Shot13
51.0%
6
49.0%
Q1 - 6:05MIAWade 4' Floating Jump Shot (2 PTS)13
51.3%
6
48.7%
Q1 - 6:16SASWade STEAL (1 STL)13
52.7%
4
47.3%
Q1 - 6:27SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)13
54.4%
4
45.6%
Q1 - 6:28MIAMISS Lewis 24' 3PT Jump Shot13
53.8%
4
46.2%
Q1 - 6:52MIAHEAT Timeout: Regular (Full 1 Short 0)13
4
Q1 - 6:52SASGreen 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Leonard 2 AST)13
52.3%
4
47.7%
Q1 - 7:04SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)10
48.6%
4
51.4%
Q1 - 7:05MIAMISS Lewis 13' Jump Shot10
48.0%
4
52.0%
Q1 - 7:12SASGreen P.FOUL (P1.T1)10
4
Q1 - 7:21MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)10
46.7%
4
53.3%
Q1 - 7:22SASMISS Parker 16' Jump Shot10
47.2%
4
52.8%
Q1 - 7:31MIABosh Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T2)10
48.3%
4
51.7%
Q1 - 7:58SASParker 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Diaw 2 AST)10
46.4%
4
53.6%
Q1 - 8:11SASGreen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)8
44.9%
4
55.1%
Q1 - 8:12MIAMISS James 3PT Jump Shot8
44.4%
4
55.6%
Q1 - 8:30SASGreen 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Diaw 1 AST)8
43.3%
4
56.7%
Q1 - 8:52MIALewis 9' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST)5
41.0%
4
59.0%
Q1 - 9:02SASDiaw Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)5
41.9%
2
58.1%
Q1 - 9:02SASSpurs Rebound4
2
Q1 - 9:02SASMISS Diaw Free Throw 1 of 24
41.7%
2
58.3%
Q1 - 9:02MIAChalmers S.FOUL (P1.T3)4
2
Q1 - 9:03SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)4
42.1%
2
57.9%
Q1 - 9:04SASMISS Leonard 10' Jump Shot4
41.2%
2
58.8%
Q1 - 9:11SASGreen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)4
42.0%
2
58.0%
Q1 - 9:12MIAMISS Bosh 14' Jump Shot4
41.7%
2
58.3%
Q1 - 9:27SASParker 7' Jump Hook Shot (2 PTS)4
40.9%
2
59.1%
Q1 - 9:38SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
40.1%
2
59.9%
Q1 - 9:39MIAMISS Wade 6' Jump Shot2
39.7%
2
60.3%
Q1 - 9:56SASDuncan 1' Layup (2 PTS) (Leonard 1 AST)2
39.2%
2
60.8%
Q1 - 10:01SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
38.6%
2
61.4%
Q1 - 10:02MIAMISS Chalmers 3' Driving Layup0
38.4%
2
61.6%
Q1 - 10:09MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)0
37.9%
2
62.1%
Q1 - 10:12SASMISS Diaw 18' Jump Shot0
38.2%
2
61.8%
Q1 - 10:23MIAWade P.FOUL (P1.T2)0
2
Q1 - 10:31MIABosh P.FOUL (P1.T1)0
2
Q1 - 10:38SASSpurs Rebound0
39.2%
2
60.8%
Q1 - 10:39SASMISS Leonard 3PT Jump Shot0
38.8%
2
61.2%
Q1 - 11:04MIABosh 1' Driving Layup (2 PTS)0
39.6%
2
60.4%
Q1 - 11:13MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
40.3%
0
59.7%
Q1 - 11:14SASMISS Parker 22' Jump Shot0
40.4%
0
59.6%
Q1 - 11:36MIABosh Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)0
40.8%
0
59.2%
Q1 - 12:00MIAJump Ball Bosh vs. Duncan: Tip to Lewis0
41.2%
0
58.8%
Q1 - 12:000
0
ClockTeamEventSASMIA
Score / WinProb

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS
1.29 64.5%
MIA
1.02 51.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
SAS
18
23
78%
MIA
13
27
48%
Midrange
SAS
13
26
50%
MIA
10
22
45%
3PT | Effective 3PT
SAS
9
13.5
21
43%
64%
MIA
9
13.5
22
41%
61%
Free Throws
SAS
18
25
72%
MIA
13
20
65%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
SAS logo Spurs
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
K. Leonard2067%10.0 / 15
T. Parker1956%9.5 / 17
P. Mills1488%7.0 / 8
T. Duncan1045%5.0 / 11
D. Green990%4.5 / 5
B. Diaw850%4.0 / 8
M. Ginobili770%3.5 / 5
T. Splitter675%3.0 / 4
M. Belinelli467%2.0 / 3
M. Bonner375%1.5 / 2
J. Ayres375%1.5 / 2
C. Joseph2100%1.0 / 1
A. Baynes2100%1.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
L. James2870%14.0 / 20
C. Bosh1250%6.0 / 12
J. Jones11138%5.5 / 4
D. Wade1029%5.0 / 17
R. Allen867%4.0 / 6
C. Andersen542%2.5 / 6
M. Chalmers433%2.0 / 6
N. Cole4100%2.0 / 2
R. Lewis225%1.0 / 4
U. Haslem250%1.0 / 2
S. Battier0-0.0 / 1
T. Douglas0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

SAS
70
+13
-14
83
MIA
71
+12
-13
83
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS
1.29 64.5%
MIA
1.02 51.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Playoff Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
3
114.0
4
112.7
SAS 127.4 +25.0
MIA 102.4
Pace
4
92.9
15
86.4
SAS 76.2
MIA 93.5 +17.3
Avg. Poss. Time
23
15.7
15
16.9
SAS 18.9
MIA 15.4 −3.5
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
2
54.6%
1
55.5%
SAS 63.6% +12.2%
MIA 51.4%
TO %
3
12.9%
4
13.0%
SAS 14.7%
MIA 14.0% −0.7%
ORB %
12
23.6%
16
17.1%
SAS 36.4% +20.6%
MIA 15.8%
FTrt
12
29.1
10
30.5
SAS 35.7 +7.5
MIA 28.2
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
7
55.9%
13
51.6%
SAS 62.5% +21.9%
MIA 40.6%
STL %
3
8.7%
4
8.5%
SAS 9.5% +1.2%
MIA 8.3%
BLK %
13
5.8%
10
7.5%
SAS 8.2% +6.2%
MIA 2.0%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Playoff Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
2
56.7%
1
57.3%
SAS 64.5% +13.3%
MIA 51.2%
Rim FG%
2
62.6%
1
66.6%
SAS 78.3% +30.2%
MIA 48.1%
Mid FG%
2
43.1%
6
41.2%
SAS 50.0% +4.5%
MIA 45.5%
3P %
1
40.9%
2
39.6%
SAS 42.9% +2.0%
MIA 40.9%
FT %
6
76.7%
5
78.0%
SAS 72.0% +7.0%
MIA 65.0%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
10
33.7%
12
33.0%
SAS 32.9%
MIA 38.0% +5.2%
Mid Att. %
11
39.6%
5
34.4%
SAS 37.1%
MIA 31.0% −6.2%
3P Att. %
10
26.7%
2
32.6%
SAS 30.0%
MIA 31.0% +1.0%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsSASMIA
Possessions8484
Possession Minutes26.421.6
Points10786
Rebounds4427
Assists2513
Steals87
Blocks41
Turnovers (Team)14 (0)13 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)12 (1)6 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)32 (0)21 (0)
Field Goals40-7032-71
At-the-Rim FG18-2313-27
Midrange FG13-2610-22
2-Point FG31-4923-49
3-Point FG9-219-22
Free Throws18-2513-20
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
F · 6'6" 225 · 23
38.7
20
67%
14
3
3
3
1
3
5
9
5-6
83%
6-9
67%
1-3
33%
C · 6'8" 250 · 32
35.5
8
50%
9
9
1
0
2
0
3
6
2-4
50%
3-5
60%
0-1
0%
G · 6'2" 185 · 32
35.0
19
56%
0
2
0
0
4
1
0
0
3-4
75%
8-13
62%
0-2
0%
F · 6'11" 250 · 38
30.8
10
45%
11
2
2
1
0
3
1
10
2-2
100%
4-9
44%
0-1
0%
G · 6'6" 215 · 27
19.3
9
90%
3
0
0
0
2
5
1
2
0-0
-
0-0
-
3-5
60%
G · 6'6" 205 · 37
27.9
7
70%
1
2
0
0
4
3
0
1
2-3
67%
1-2
50%
1-2
50%
G · 6'0" 185 · 26
16.2
14
88%
1
2
0
0
1
2
0
1
0-0
-
1-2
50%
4-6
67%
C-F · 6'11" 245 · 29
14.5
6
75%
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
1
0-0
-
3-4
75%
0-0
-
C-F · 6'10" 235 · 34
9.2
3
75%
2
2
1
0
0
1
0
2
1-2
50%
1-1
100%
0-0
-
G · 6'2" 200 · 23
3.8
2
100%
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0-0
-
1-1
100%
0-0
-
G-F · 6'5" 210 · 28
3.6
4
67%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
2-2
100%
0-1
0%
C · 6'10" 260 · 28
2.7
2
100%
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0-0
-
1-1
100%
0-0
-
F-C · 6'9" 250 · 27
2.7
3
75%
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
3-4
75%
0-0
-
0-0
-
#7 · F · 6'7" 225 · 27
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#23 · F · 6'11" 220 · 26
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
107
65%
44
25
8
4
14
0
12
32
18-25
72%
31-49
63%
9-21
43%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.