Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, February 1, 2006

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	13	Nuggets	43%	92	90
	20	Jazz	57%	94	103

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
DEN	107.1	84	96.0
UTA	119.8	86	76.4

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

-5

UTA

+12

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.06 52.9%

UTA

1.21 60.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	UTA
Q4 - 0:00.0	UTA		90 0%	103 100%
Q4 - 0:23.0	DEN	Watson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Buckner 2 AST)	90 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 0:44.0	DEN	Elson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	87 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 0:46.0	DEN	MISS Watson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	87 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 1:00	UTA	Collins Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	87 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 1:00	UTA	Collins Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	87 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 1:00	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	87 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 1:00	DEN	MISS Watson Layup	87 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 1:06	UTA	D. Williams Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T15)	87 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 1:25	UTA	Kirilenko REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	87 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 1:27	DEN	MISS Kleiza 19' Jump Shot	87 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 1:37	UTA	Kirilenko Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)	87 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 1:37	UTA	Kirilenko Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)	87 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 1:39	DEN	Kleiza Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	87 0.2%	99 99.8%
Q4 - 1:39	DEN	Kleiza Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	86 0.1%	99 99.9%
Q4 - 1:44	DEN	Kleiza REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	85 0.1%	99 99.9%
Q4 - 1:46	UTA	MISS Okur 25' 3PT Jump Shot	85 0.1%	99 99.9%
Q4 - 2:07	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)	85 0.1%	99 99.9%
Q4 - 2:09	UTA	MISS McLeod 19' Jump Shot	85 0.1%	99 99.9%
Q4 - 2:33	DEN	Watson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Kleiza 1 AST)	85 0.1%	99 99.9%
Q4 - 2:48	UTA	Okur 19' Jump Shot (28 PTS)	82 0.1%	99 99.9%
Q4 - 3:05	DEN	Hodge Foul Turnover (P1.T6)	82 0.1%	97 99.9%
Q4 - 3:08	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	82 0.2%	97 99.8%
Q4 - 3:11	UTA	MISS D. Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot	82 0.1%	97 99.9%
Q4 - 3:28	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)	82 0.1%	97 99.9%
Q4 - 3:31	UTA	MISS Okur Free Throw 2 of 2	82 0.4%	97 99.6%
Q4 - 3:31	UTA	Okur Free Throw 1 of 2 (26 PTS)	82 0.3%	97 99.7%
Q4 - 3:52	DEN	Kleiza 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Watson 7 AST)	82 0.4%	96 99.6%
Q4 - 4:13	UTA	D. Williams Foul Turnover (P1.T14)	80 0.3%	96 99.7%
Q4 - 4:28	DEN	Anthony 22' Jump Shot (20 PTS)	80 0.2%	96 99.8%
Q4 - 4:42	UTA	McLeod 21' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Collins 4 AST)	78 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 5:04	DEN	Miller 16' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	78 0.3%	94 99.7%
Q4 - 5:15	UTA	Okur 25' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS) (McLeod 4 AST)	76 0.2%	94 99.8%
Q4 - 5:45	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)	76 0.4%	91 99.6%
Q4 - 5:45	DEN	MISS Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2	75 0.4%	91 99.6%
Q4 - 5:52	UTA	Okur Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T13)	75 0.4%	91 99.6%
Q4 - 6:01	UTA	Kirilenko REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	75 0.5%	91 99.5%
Q4 - 6:02	DEN	MISS Martin 19' Jump Shot	75 0.6%	91 99.4%
Q4 - 6:18	UTA	Kirilenko 25' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (McLeod 3 AST)	75 0.7%	91 99.3%
Q4 - 6:40	DEN	Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	75 1.3%	88 98.7%
Q4 - 6:40	DEN	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	74 1.2%	88 98.8%
Q4 - 6:40	DEN	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	73 1.0%	88 99.0%
Q4 - 6:41	UTA	MISS Harpring 19' Jump Shot	73 0.9%	88 99.1%
Q4 - 6:51	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	73 0.7%	88 99.3%
Q4 - 6:53	DEN	MISS Anthony Layup	73 0.8%	88 99.2%
Q4 - 7:29	UTA	McLeod 21' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Kirilenko 5 AST)	73 1.4%	88 98.6%
Q4 - 7:47	DEN	Martin 18' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Watson 6 AST)	73 1.8%	86 98.2%
Q4 - 8:11	UTA	McLeod Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	71 1.9%	86 98.1%
Q4 - 8:11	UTA	McLeod Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	71 2.0%	85 98.0%
Q4 - 8:14	UTA	Humphries REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	71 2.4%	84 97.6%
Q4 - 8:15	DEN	MISS Najera 19' Jump Shot	71 2.6%	84 97.4%
Q4 - 8:31	DEN	Najera REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	71 3.1%	84 96.9%
Q4 - 8:32	UTA	MISS Humphries 17' Jump Shot	71 2.9%	84 97.1%
Q4 - 8:56	DEN	Miller 15' Jump Shot (11 PTS)	71 2.4%	84 97.6%
Q4 - 9:20	UTA	Harpring 17' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Kirilenko 4 AST)	69 2.4%	84 97.6%
Q4 - 9:48	DEN	Martin 12' Turnaround Jump Shot (16 PTS)	69 2.9%	82 97.1%
Q4 - 10:12	UTA	Kirilenko Layup (16 PTS) (Harpring 1 AST)	67 2.8%	82 97.2%
Q4 - 10:29	UTA	Kirilenko REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	67 3.4%	80 96.6%
Q4 - 10:31	DEN	MISS Boykins 15' Jump Shot	67 3.7%	80 96.3%
Q4 - 10:44	UTA	Harpring Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)	67 4.3%	80 95.7%
Q4 - 10:50	UTA	Humphries REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	67 6.5%	77 93.5%
Q4 - 10:51	DEN	MISS Miller Driving Layup	67 7.0%	77 93.0%
Q4 - 10:59	DEN	Kleiza REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	67 8.2%	77 91.8%
Q4 - 11:01	UTA	MISS McLeod 24' 3PT Jump Shot	67 8.4%	77 91.6%
Q4 - 11:26	UTA	McLeod REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	67 7.3%	77 92.7%
Q4 - 11:27	DEN	MISS Boykins 21' Jump Shot	67 7.7%	77 92.3%
Q4 - 11:38	UTA	McLeod Driving Layup (12 PTS)	67 8.9%	77 91.1%
Q4 - 11:42	DEN	McLeod STEAL (1 STL)	67 10.8%	75 89.2%
Q3 - 0:00.0	UTA		67 13.1%	75 86.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	67 10.7%	75 89.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	DEN	MISS Watson 21' Jump Shot	67 11.4%	75 88.6%
Q3 - 0:03.0	UTA	Palacio Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	67 14.1%	75 85.9%
Q3 - 0:03.0	UTA	Palacio Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	67 14.8%	74 85.2%
Q3 - 0:19.0	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	67 16.8%	73 83.2%
Q3 - 0:20.0	DEN	Najera REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	67 19.8%	73 80.2%
Q3 - 0:20.0	DEN	MISS Najera Tip Shot	67 17.7%	73 82.3%
Q3 - 0:21.0	DEN	MISS Kleiza Layup	67 17.7%	73 82.3%
Q3 - 0:28.0	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	67 19.8%	73 80.2%
Q3 - 0:30.0	UTA	MISS Harpring 24' 3PT Jump Shot	67 18.8%	73 81.2%
Q3 - 0:47.0	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)	67 16.7%	73 83.3%
Q3 - 0:47.0	DEN	MISS Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2	66 16.2%	73 83.8%
Q3 - 1:00	UTA	Collins Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	66 16.7%	73 83.3%
Q3 - 1:00	UTA	Collins Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	66 17.4%	72 82.6%
Q3 - 1:00	UTA	D. Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	66 19.8%	71 80.2%
Q3 - 1:01	DEN	Okur BLOCK (2 BLK)	66 21.7%	71 78.3%
Q3 - 1:24	UTA	Palacio Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T12)	66 24.1%	71 75.9%
Q3 - 1:28	UTA	Palacio REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	66 20.6%	71 79.4%
Q3 - 1:30	DEN	MISS Anthony 7' Jump Shot	66 21.7%	71 78.3%
Q3 - 1:44	UTA	Okur Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS)	66 24.1%	71 75.9%
Q3 - 1:44	UTA	Okur Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)	66 24.7%	70 75.3%
Q3 - 1:59	DEN	Nuggets Turnover: Shot Clock (T#4)	66 27.8%	69 72.2%
Q3 - 1:59	DEN	Najera REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	66 32.0%	69 68.0%
Q3 - 2:01	DEN	MISS Anthony 12' Jump Shot	66 29.1%	69 70.9%
Q3 - 2:20	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	66 32.1%	69 67.9%
Q3 - 2:23	UTA	MISS McLeod 21' Jump Shot	66 30.8%	69 69.2%
Q3 - 2:48	DEN	Miller 17' Turnaround Jump Shot (9 PTS)	66 27.9%	69 72.1%
Q3 - 3:04	UTA	Okur 5' Running Jump Shot (20 PTS)	64 25.2%	69 74.8%
Q3 - 3:27	DEN	Anthony 22' Jump Shot (16 PTS)	64 28.5%	67 71.5%
Q3 - 3:35	UTA	Okur Traveling Turnover (P2.T11)	62 25.2%	67 74.8%
Q3 - 3:53	DEN	Martin 6' Jump Hook Shot (14 PTS)	62 21.7%	67 78.3%
Q3 - 3:54	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	60 19.0%	67 81.0%
Q3 - 3:56	DEN	MISS Martin 6' Jump Shot	60 17.0%	67 83.0%
Q3 - 4:19	UTA	Kirilenko Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	60 19.6%	67 80.4%
Q3 - 4:19	UTA	Kirilenko Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	60 20.2%	66 79.8%
Q3 - 4:37	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	60 22.1%	65 77.9%
Q3 - 4:39	DEN	MISS Najera 15' Jump Shot	60 23.1%	65 76.9%
Q3 - 5:04	UTA	Okur 25' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Kirilenko 3 AST)	60 26.1%	65 73.9%
Q3 - 5:21	UTA	Palacio REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	60 32.7%	62 67.3%
Q3 - 5:23	DEN	MISS Anthony 20' Jump Shot	60 33.9%	62 66.1%
Q3 - 5:47	UTA	Palacio 20' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	60 36.8%	62 63.2%
Q3 - 6:16	DEN	Martin Layup (12 PTS) (Miller 9 AST)	60 40.3%	60 59.7%
Q3 - 6:20	DEN	Najera REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	58 36.8%	60 63.2%
Q3 - 6:22	UTA	MISS Okur 9' Running Jump Shot	58 35.6%	60 64.4%
Q3 - 6:38	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	58 32.9%	60 67.1%
Q3 - 6:39	DEN	MISS Anthony 12' Fadeaway Jumper	58 34.1%	60 65.9%
Q3 - 6:55	UTA	Palacio 3' Running Layup (8 PTS)	58 36.8%	60 63.2%
Q3 - 7:17	DEN	Anthony 17' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Miller 8 AST)	58 39.9%	58 60.1%
Q3 - 7:37	UTA	JAZZ Turnover: Shot Clock (T#10)	56 36.7%	58 63.3%
Q3 - 8:07	UTA	McLeod REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	56 33.0%	58 67.0%
Q3 - 8:09	DEN	Kirilenko BLOCK (5 BLK)	56 34.2%	58 65.8%
Q3 - 8:15	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	56 36.9%	58 63.1%
Q3 - 8:18	UTA	MISS Palacio Layup	56 35.7%	58 64.3%
Q3 - 8:25	UTA	McLeod REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	56 33.0%	58 67.0%
Q3 - 8:26	DEN	MISS Buckner 24' 3PT Jump Shot	56 34.2%	58 65.8%
Q3 - 8:47	UTA	Kirilenko Slam Dunk (12 PTS) (Palacio 7 AST)	56 36.9%	58 63.1%
Q3 - 8:53	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	56 40.0%	56 60.0%
Q3 - 8:54	DEN	MISS Anthony 22' Jump Shot	56 41.3%	56 58.7%
Q3 - 9:06	UTA	McLeod Driving Layup (10 PTS)	56 43.6%	56 56.4%
Q3 - 9:11	UTA	McLeod REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	56 47.1%	54 52.9%
Q3 - 9:13	DEN	MISS Martin Driving Layup	56 48.3%	54 51.7%
Q3 - 9:29	UTA	McLeod 24' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Palacio 6 AST)	56 50.9%	54 49.1%
Q3 - 9:55	DEN	Anthony 21' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	56 58.1%	51 41.9%
Q3 - 10:12	UTA	Okur 21' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	54 54.2%	51 45.8%
Q3 - 10:33	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	54 57.3%	49 42.7%
Q3 - 10:35	UTA	MISS McLeod Driving Layup	54 60.0%	49 40.0%
Q3 - 10:41	DEN	Okur STEAL (2 STL)	54 57.3%	49 42.7%
Q3 - 10:57	DEN	Elson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	54 61.1%	49 38.9%
Q3 - 10:59	UTA	MISS McLeod Free Throw 2 of 2	54 60.6%	49 39.4%
Q3 - 10:59	UTA	MISS McLeod Free Throw 1 of 2	54 58.3%	49 41.7%
Q3 - 11:20	DEN	Martin Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	54 56.9%	49 43.1%
Q3 - 11:39	DEN	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	54 60.5%	49 39.5%
Q3 - 11:41	UTA	MISS Palacio 17' Jump Shot	54 59.4%	49 40.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0	UTA		54 57.0%	49 43.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	54 57.0%	49 43.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0	UTA	MISS Palacio 3PT Jump Shot	54 59.4%	49 40.6%
Q2 - 0:04.0	DEN	Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	54 57.0%	49 43.0%
Q2 - 0:04.0	DEN	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	53 56.3%	49 43.7%
Q2 - 0:11.0	UTA	Kirilenko Alley Oop Dunk (10 PTS) (Palacio 5 AST)	52 52.7%	49 47.3%
Q2 - 0:32.0	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	52 57.0%	47 43.0%
Q2 - 0:33.0	DEN	Kirilenko BLOCK (4 BLK)	52 57.7%	47 42.3%
Q2 - 0:44.0	UTA	Palacio Driving Layup (6 PTS)	52 59.3%	47 40.7%
Q2 - 1:04	DEN	Buckner Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	52 63.0%	45 37.0%
Q2 - 1:04	DEN	Buckner Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	51 62.5%	45 37.5%
Q2 - 1:18	DEN	Najera REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	50 58.5%	45 41.5%
Q2 - 1:22	UTA	MISS Okur 13' Jump Shot	50 58.0%	45 42.0%
Q2 - 1:48	DEN	Miller 4' Running Jump Shot (5 PTS)	50 56.9%	45 43.1%
Q2 - 2:03	UTA	Collins REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	48 52.4%	45 47.6%
Q2 - 2:03	UTA	Collins Tip Shot (4 PTS)	48 52.4%	45 47.6%
Q2 - 2:04	UTA	MISS Kirilenko Driving Layup	48 57.6%	43 42.4%
Q2 - 2:12	UTA	Palacio REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	48 55.6%	43 44.4%
Q2 - 2:14	DEN	MISS Anthony 18' Jump Shot	48 56.5%	43 43.5%
Q2 - 2:26	DEN	Elson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	48 58.5%	43 41.5%
Q2 - 2:27	UTA	MISS Kirilenko Free Throw 2 of 2	48 58.1%	43 41.9%
Q2 - 2:27	UTA	Kirilenko Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	48 56.1%	43 43.9%
Q2 - 2:34	DEN	Anthony Driving Layup (10 PTS)	48 58.8%	42 41.2%
Q2 - 2:50	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	46 55.4%	42 44.6%
Q2 - 2:50	UTA	Okur Slam Dunk (13 PTS)	46 55.4%	42 44.6%
Q2 - 2:52	UTA	MISS Palacio Layup	46 60.7%	40 39.3%
Q2 - 2:54	UTA	D. Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	46 58.8%	40 41.2%
Q2 - 2:57	DEN	Kirilenko BLOCK (3 BLK)	46 59.6%	40 40.4%
Q2 - 3:09	UTA	Palacio Foul Turnover (P3.T9)	46 60.8%	40 39.2%
Q2 - 3:23	UTA	Collins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	46 57.6%	40 42.4%
Q2 - 3:25	DEN	Okur BLOCK (1 BLK)	46 58.6%	40 41.4%
Q2 - 3:33	DEN	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	46 60.8%	40 39.2%
Q2 - 3:34	UTA	MISS Okur 17' Jump Shot	46 59.9%	40 40.1%
Q2 - 4:02	DEN	Boykins 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Watson 5 AST)	46 57.0%	40 43.0%
Q2 - 4:08	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	43 51.3%	40 48.7%
Q2 - 4:10	UTA	MISS Brown 3PT Jump Shot	43 50.4%	40 49.6%
Q2 - 4:33	UTA	D. Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	43 48.4%	40 51.6%
Q2 - 4:35	DEN	Kirilenko BLOCK (2 BLK)	43 49.3%	40 50.7%
Q2 - 4:39	UTA	Brown Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T8)	43 51.3%	40 48.7%
Q2 - 4:58	DEN	Watson Layup (2 PTS) (Miller 7 AST)	43 48.4%	40 51.6%
Q2 - 5:03	UTA	Okur Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T7)	41 45.5%	40 54.5%
Q2 - 5:23	UTA	Kirilenko REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	41 42.5%	40 57.5%
Q2 - 5:25	DEN	MISS Elson 19' Jump Shot	41 43.4%	40 56.6%
Q2 - 5:51	UTA	Harpring Dunk (6 PTS) (Brown 1 AST)	41 45.5%	40 54.5%
Q2 - 5:54	UTA	Brown REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	41 48.1%	38 51.9%
Q2 - 5:57	DEN	MISS Martin 10' Jump Shot	41 49.0%	38 51.0%
Q2 - 6:06	UTA	Brown Foul Turnover (P1.T6)	41 51.1%	38 48.9%
Q2 - 6:21	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	41 47.8%	38 52.2%
Q2 - 6:21	UTA	MISS D. Williams 20' Jump Shot	41 50.1%	38 49.9%
Q2 - 6:43	DEN	Elson 16' Turnaround Jump Shot (10 PTS)	41 47.8%	38 52.2%
Q2 - 7:09	UTA	Harpring Traveling Turnover (P1.T5)	39 45.3%	38 54.7%
Q2 - 7:14	DEN	Miller Driving Layup (3 PTS)	39 42.5%	38 57.5%
Q2 - 7:38	UTA	Kirilenko Driving Layup (7 PTS)	37 40.1%	38 59.9%
Q2 - 7:55	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	37 42.5%	36 57.5%
Q2 - 7:58	DEN	MISS Watson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	37 43.3%	36 56.7%
Q2 - 8:14	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	37 45.1%	36 54.9%
Q2 - 8:14	UTA	MISS Kirilenko 15' Jump Shot	37 44.2%	36 55.8%
Q2 - 8:37	DEN	Najera Layup (4 PTS) (Elson 1 AST)	37 42.2%	36 57.8%
Q2 - 8:44	UTA	Kirilenko Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)	35 40.0%	36 60.0%
Q2 - 9:06	UTA	Ostertag REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	35 37.3%	36 62.7%
Q2 - 9:08	UTA	MISS Brown Layup	35 39.1%	36 60.9%
Q2 - 9:10	UTA	Brown REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	35 37.2%	36 62.8%
Q2 - 9:11	UTA	Brown REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	35 37.2%	36 62.8%
Q2 - 9:11	UTA	MISS Brown Layup	35 39.1%	36 60.9%
Q2 - 9:14	UTA	MISS Kirilenko 28' 3PT Jump Shot	35 39.1%	36 60.9%
Q2 - 9:41	DEN	Elson 19' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Boykins 1 AST)	35 37.2%	36 62.8%
Q2 - 9:47	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	33 35.2%	36 64.8%
Q2 - 9:49	DEN	MISS Boykins 24' 3PT Jump Shot	33 33.4%	36 66.6%
Q2 - 9:54	DEN	Elson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	33 35.2%	36 64.8%
Q2 - 9:55	UTA	MISS D. Williams Layup	33 34.4%	36 65.6%
Q2 - 10:16	DEN	Elson 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Watson 4 AST)	33 32.7%	36 67.3%
Q2 - 10:27	UTA	Harpring Layup (4 PTS) (Palacio 4 AST)	31 30.8%	36 69.2%
Q2 - 10:46	DEN	Elson 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Watson 3 AST)	31 32.7%	34 67.3%
Q2 - 11:00	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	29 30.8%	34 69.2%
Q2 - 11:02	UTA	MISS D. Williams 20' Jump Shot	29 30.0%	34 70.0%
Q2 - 11:30	DEN	Anthony 20' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	29 28.7%	34 71.3%
Q2 - 11:41	UTA	Ostertag Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	27 26.7%	34 73.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0	UTA		27 24.8%	34 75.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	27 24.8%	34 75.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	UTA	MISS Okur 31' 3PT Jump Shot	27 26.1%	34 73.9%
Q1 - 0:06.0	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	27 25.2%	34 74.8%
Q1 - 0:06.0	DEN	MISS Anthony 19' Jump Shot	27 25.6%	34 74.4%
Q1 - 0:29.0	UTA	Harpring Layup (2 PTS) (Okur 1 AST)	27 26.6%	34 73.4%
Q1 - 0:30.0	UTA	JAZZ Rebound	27 29.0%	32 71.0%
Q1 - 0:31.0	UTA	MISS D. Williams 9' Jump Shot	27 30.0%	32 70.0%
Q1 - 0:38.0	DEN	Okur STEAL (1 STL)	27 29.0%	32 71.0%
Q1 - 0:44.0	UTA	Palacio Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T2)	27 30.5%	32 69.5%
Q1 - 0:59.0	DEN	Najera 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Watson 2 AST)	27 28.9%	32 71.1%
Q1 - 1:20	UTA	D. Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Collins 3 AST)	25 26.7%	32 73.3%
Q1 - 1:45	DEN	Martin Slam Dunk (10 PTS) (Watson 1 AST)	25 31.0%	29 69.0%
Q1 - 1:52	DEN	Watson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	23 28.6%	29 71.4%
Q1 - 1:53	UTA	MISS Okur 13' Turnaround Jump Shot	23 28.1%	29 71.9%
Q1 - 2:16	DEN	Anthony Layup (6 PTS)	23 27.2%	29 72.8%
Q1 - 2:31	UTA	D. Williams 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Palacio 3 AST)	21 25.3%	29 74.7%
Q1 - 2:51	DEN	Martin 16' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	21 27.2%	27 72.8%
Q1 - 3:17	UTA	Okur Layup (11 PTS) (Palacio 2 AST)	19 25.8%	27 74.2%
Q1 - 3:22	UTA	Collins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	19 27.4%	25 72.6%
Q1 - 3:25	DEN	MISS Anthony 19' Jump Shot	19 28.0%	25 72.0%
Q1 - 3:47	UTA	Kirilenko Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	19 29.4%	25 70.6%
Q1 - 3:47	UTA	MISS Kirilenko Free Throw 1 of 2	19 29.8%	24 70.2%
Q1 - 4:00	UTA	Kirilenko REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	19 29.2%	24 70.8%
Q1 - 4:01	DEN	MISS Miller Free Throw 2 of 2	19 29.5%	24 70.5%
Q1 - 4:01	DEN	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	19 30.7%	24 69.3%
Q1 - 4:14	UTA	McLeod 21' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Kirilenko 2 AST)	18 29.6%	24 70.4%
Q1 - 4:34	DEN	Anthony Alley Oop Dunk (4 PTS) (Miller 6 AST)	18 31.0%	22 69.0%
Q1 - 4:44	UTA	Okur Alley Oop Layup (9 PTS) (Kirilenko 1 AST)	16 29.6%	22 70.4%
Q1 - 4:56	UTA	Okur REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 31.0%	20 69.0%
Q1 - 4:57	DEN	MISS Miller Free Throw 2 of 2	16 31.3%	20 68.7%
Q1 - 4:57	DEN	MISS Miller Free Throw 1 of 2	16 32.6%	20 67.4%
Q1 - 5:18	UTA	McLeod 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)	16 33.4%	20 66.6%
Q1 - 5:44	DEN	Buckner 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Miller 5 AST)	16 37.0%	17 63.0%
Q1 - 6:06	UTA	Palacio Driving Layup (4 PTS)	13 33.4%	17 66.6%
Q1 - 6:09	UTA	Palacio REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	13 35.2%	15 64.8%
Q1 - 6:11	DEN	Collins BLOCK (1 BLK)	13 35.7%	15 64.3%
Q1 - 6:27	UTA	Kirilenko 23' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Collins 2 AST)	13 37.1%	15 62.9%
Q1 - 6:46	DEN	Buckner 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Miller 4 AST)	13 38.9%	13 61.1%
Q1 - 6:59	UTA	Palacio Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)	10 35.2%	13 64.8%
Q1 - 7:01	UTA	Palacio REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	10 33.6%	13 66.4%
Q1 - 7:02	DEN	Kirilenko BLOCK (1 BLK)	10 34.1%	13 65.9%
Q1 - 7:15	UTA	Collins Layup (2 PTS) (Palacio 1 AST)	10 35.5%	13 64.5%
Q1 - 7:33	UTA	McLeod REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	10 37.0%	11 63.0%
Q1 - 7:35	DEN	MISS Martin 20' Jump Shot	10 37.6%	11 62.4%
Q1 - 7:47	UTA	Okur Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	10 39.0%	11 61.0%
Q1 - 7:47	UTA	Okur Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	10 39.3%	10 60.7%
Q1 - 7:56	UTA	Okur Free Throw Technical (5 PTS)	10 40.6%	9 59.4%
Q1 - 8:10	DEN	Martin Alley Oop Layup (6 PTS) (Miller 3 AST)	10 42.6%	8 57.4%
Q1 - 8:29	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	8 41.0%	8 59.0%
Q1 - 8:29	UTA	MISS Kirilenko Slam Dunk	8 40.3%	8 59.7%
Q1 - 9:00	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	8 38.9%	8 61.1%
Q1 - 9:00	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	7 38.6%	8 61.4%
Q1 - 9:12	UTA	Palacio Driving Layup (2 PTS) (McLeod 1 AST)	6 37.3%	8 62.7%
Q1 - 9:17	UTA	McLeod REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 38.6%	6 61.4%
Q1 - 9:20	DEN	MISS Anthony 25' 3PT Jump Shot	6 39.3%	6 60.7%
Q1 - 9:37	UTA	Okur 9' Jump Hook Shot (4 PTS)	6 40.9%	6 59.1%
Q1 - 10:01	DEN	Martin 22' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Buckner 1 AST)	6 42.3%	4 57.7%
Q1 - 10:13	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 40.7%	4 59.3%
Q1 - 10:15	UTA	MISS McLeod 19' Jump Shot	4 40.1%	4 59.9%
Q1 - 10:37	DEN	Martin Alley Oop Dunk (2 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)	4 38.6%	4 61.4%
Q1 - 10:55	UTA	Okur Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	2 37.1%	4 62.9%
Q1 - 10:55	UTA	Okur Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	2 37.4%	3 62.6%
Q1 - 11:04	UTA	Collins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 38.8%	2 61.2%
Q1 - 11:07	DEN	MISS Elson 18' Jump Shot	2 39.3%	2 60.7%
Q1 - 11:22	UTA	Kirilenko 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Collins 1 AST)	2 40.4%	2 59.6%
Q1 - 11:46	DEN	Elson 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)	2 42.3%	0 57.7%
Q1 - 12:00	UTA	Jump Ball Collins vs. Elson: Tip to Miller	0 40.5%	0 59.5%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.06 52.9%

UTA

1.21 60.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

48%

UTA

71%

Midrange

DEN

48%

UTA

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

7.5

50%

75%

UTA

9.0

43%

64%

Free Throws

DEN

72%

UTA

82%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Anthony	20	40%	10.0 / 25
K. Martin	18	64%	9.0 / 14
A. Miller	15	75%	7.5 / 10
F. Elson	10	63%	5.0 / 8
G. Buckner	8	80%	4.0 / 5
E. Watson	8	57%	4.0 / 7
E. Najera	4	33%	2.0 / 6
L. Kleiza	4	50%	2.0 / 4
E. Boykins	3	30%	1.5 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Okur	28	74%	14.0 / 19
A. Kirilenko	21	70%	10.5 / 15
K. McLeod	18	64%	9.0 / 14
M. Palacio	12	60%	6.0 / 10
M. Harpring	11	79%	5.5 / 7
J. Collins	8	100%	4.0 / 4
D. Williams	5	36%	2.5 / 7
K. Humphries	0	-	0.0 / 1
D. Brown	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

-5

UTA

+12

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.06 52.9%

UTA

1.21 60.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	105.6 103.6	DEN 107.1 UTA 119.8 +12.6
Pace	93.9 88.3	DEN 96.0 +19.6 UTA 76.4
Avg. Poss. Time	14.7 17.4	DEN 15.0 +3.8 UTA 18.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	48.8% 46.7%	DEN 51.3% UTA 59.7% +8.4%
TO %	15.1% 16.6%	DEN 6.7% +9.2% UTA 15.9%
ORB %	26.9% 32.4%	DEN 11.1% UTA 29.6% +18.5%
FTrt	34.7 39.7	DEN 24.0 UTA 41.8 +17.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	62.4% 64.6%	DEN 58.3% UTA 62.2% +3.9%
STL %	8.9% 7.2%	DEN 10.7% +7.2% UTA 3.5%
BLK %	8.8% 10.3%	DEN 1.9% UTA 12.3% +10.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.1 and 2.1.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.3% 50.0%	DEN 52.9% UTA 60.6% +7.7%
Rim FG%	59.2% 56.5%	DEN 47.8% UTA 71.4% +23.6%
Mid FG%	39.7% 37.5%	DEN 47.6% +3.6% UTA 44.0%
3P %	32.5% 33.6%	DEN 50.0% +7.1% UTA 42.9%
FT %	74.4% 71.9%	DEN 72.2% UTA 82.1% +9.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	38.8% 38.3%	DEN 30.7% UTA 41.8% +11.1%
Mid Att. %	45.1% 46.8%	DEN 56.0% UTA 37.3% +18.7%
3P Att. %	16.1% 14.9%	DEN 13.3% UTA 20.9% +7.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	UTA
Possessions	84	86
Possession Minutes	21.0	27.0
Points	90	103
Rebounds	23	40
Assists	21	23
Steals	9	3
Blocks	1	8
Turnovers (Team)	5 (1)	14 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	4 (1)	8 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	19 (2)	32 (4)
Field Goals	36-75	37-67
At-the-Rim FG	11-23	20-28
Midrange FG	20-42	11-25
2-Point FG	31-65	31-53
3-Point FG	5-10	6-14
Free Throws	13-18	23-28
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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13 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andre Miller G · 6'3" 200 · 30	35.5	15	75%	3	9	0	0	1	2	0	3	5-8	63%	5-6	83%	0-0	-
Kenyon Martin F · 6'9" 225 · 28	33.5	18	64%	6	0	2	1	1	3	1	5	0-0	-	9-14	64%	0-0	-
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 22	33.1	20	40%	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	4-6	67%	8-21	38%	0-1	0%
Greg Buckner G · 6'4" 210 · 29	27.2	8	80%	0	2	1	0	0	3	0	0	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	2-3	67%
Francisco Elson C · 7'0" 240 · 30	25.6	10	63%	4	1	3	0	0	5	1	3	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Eduardo Najera F · 6'8" 235 · 30	28.8	4	33%	5	0	1	0	0	2	2	3	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-0	-
Earl Watson G · 6'1" 199 · 27	25.7	8	57%	1	7	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-4	50%
Earl Boykins G · 5'5" 133 · 30	18.2	3	30%	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	1-2	50%
Linas Kleiza F · 6'8" 234 · 21	8.1	4	50%	2	1	1	0	0	3	0	2	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Julius Hodge G · 6'7" 220 · 22	4.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DerMarr Johnson F-G · 6'9" 210 · 26
Voshon Lenard G · 6'4" 215 · 33
Marcus Camby #23 · C-F · 6'11" 240 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Nene Hilario #31 · C-F · 6'11" 250 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Bryon Russell #9 · G-F · 6'7" 225 · 35	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	90	53%	23	21	9	1	5	0	4	19	13-18	72%	31-65	48%	5-10	50%

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13 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andre Miller G · 6'3" 200 · 30	35.5	15	75%	3	9	0	0	1	2	0	3	5-8	63%	5-6	83%	0-0	-
Kenyon Martin F · 6'9" 225 · 28	33.5	18	64%	6	0	2	1	1	3	1	5	0-0	-	9-14	64%	0-0	-
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 22	33.1	20	40%	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	4-6	67%	8-21	38%	0-1	0%
Greg Buckner G · 6'4" 210 · 29	27.2	8	80%	0	2	1	0	0	3	0	0	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	2-3	67%
Francisco Elson C · 7'0" 240 · 30	25.6	10	63%	4	1	3	0	0	5	1	3	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Eduardo Najera F · 6'8" 235 · 30	28.8	4	33%	5	0	1	0	0	2	2	3	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-0	-
Earl Watson G · 6'1" 199 · 27	25.7	8	57%	1	7	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-4	50%
Earl Boykins G · 5'5" 133 · 30	18.2	3	30%	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	1-2	50%
Linas Kleiza F · 6'8" 234 · 21	8.1	4	50%	2	1	1	0	0	3	0	2	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Julius Hodge G · 6'7" 220 · 22	4.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DerMarr Johnson F-G · 6'9" 210 · 26
Voshon Lenard G · 6'4" 215 · 33
Marcus Camby #23 · C-F · 6'11" 240 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Nene Hilario #31 · C-F · 6'11" 250 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Bryon Russell #9 · G-F · 6'7" 225 · 35	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	90	53%	23	21	9	1	5	0	4	19	13-18	72%	31-65	48%	5-10	50%

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20 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andrei Kirilenko F · 6'9" 235 · 25	42.2	21	70%	5	5	0	5	1	4	0	5	6-8	75%	6-9	67%	1-2	50%
Mehmet Okur F · 6'11" 260 · 27	39.9	28	74%	11	1	2	2	3	3	4	7	8-9	89%	7-11	64%	2-4	50%
Jarron Collins C · 6'11" 249 · 27	32.5	8	100%	4	4	0	1	0	2	1	3	4-4	100%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Keith McLeod G · 6'2" 190 · 26	30.6	18	64%	6	4	1	0	0	3	0	6	2-4	50%	5-9	56%	2-3	67%
Milt Palacio G · 6'4" 210 · 28	30.1	12	60%	5	7	0	0	4	1	0	5	2-2	100%	5-8	63%	0-1	0%
Deron Williams G · 6'3" 200 · 22	29.4	5	36%	3	0	0	0	2	3	0	3	0-0	-	1-5	20%	1-2	50%
Matt Harpring F · 6'7" 230 · 30	19.1	11	79%	0	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	1-1	100%	5-6	83%	0-1	0%
Kris Humphries F · 6'9" 235 · 21	5.9	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Devin Brown G · 6'5" 210 · 27	5.9	0	0%	3	1	0	0	2	1	2	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Greg Ostertag C · 7'2" 280 · 33	3.6	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Andre Owens G · 6'4" 200 · 25	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Gordan Giricek G · 6'6" 220 · 29
Carlos Boozer #5 · F · 6'9" 258 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
CJ Miles #34 · G · 6'6" 220 · 19	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Robert Whaley #54 · C · 6'10" 260 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	61%	40	23	3	8	14	0	8	32	23-28	82%	31-53	58%	6-14	43%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE