Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, February 10, 2006

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	1	Pistons	76%	95	84
	25	Magic	24%	86	73

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
DET	102.4	82	79.9
ORL	85.9	85	87.2

Scoring Opportunities

DET

+15

-11

ORL

+10

-17

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DET

0.93 46.7%

ORL

0.94 46.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	DET	ORL
Q4 - 0:00.0	DET		84 100%	73 0%
Q4 - 0:06.0	DET	Wallace 28' 3PT Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Billups 14 AST)	84 99.9%	71 0.1%
Q4 - 0:29.0	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:9)	81 99.9%	71 0.1%
Q4 - 0:30.0	ORL	MISS Francis 19' Jump Shot	81 99.9%	71 0.1%
Q4 - 0:38.0	ORL	Francis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	81 99.9%	71 0.1%
Q4 - 0:41.0	DET	MISS Hamilton 14' Jump Shot	81 99.9%	71 0.1%
Q4 - 1:04	ORL	Francis Driving Layup (9 PTS)	81 99.9%	71 0.1%
Q4 - 1:12	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:7 Def:10)	81 99.9%	69 0.1%
Q4 - 1:14	DET	MISS McDyess 19' Jump Shot	81 99.9%	69 0.1%
Q4 - 1:35	ORL	Stevenson Layup (8 PTS)	81 99.9%	69 0.1%
Q4 - 1:39	ORL	Stevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	81 99.9%	67 0.1%
Q4 - 1:41	DET	MISS Hamilton 20' Jump Shot	81 99.9%	67 0.1%
Q4 - 2:00	ORL	Howard 7' Hook Shot (19 PTS)	81 99.9%	67 0.1%
Q4 - 2:16	DET	Hamilton 20' Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Billups 13 AST)	81 99.9%	65 0.1%
Q4 - 2:31	ORL	Howard Foul Turnover (P6.T17)	79 99.9%	65 0.1%
Q4 - 2:43	ORL	Battie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)	79 99.9%	65 0.1%
Q4 - 2:45	DET	MISS Prince 20' Jump Shot	79 99.9%	65 0.1%
Q4 - 3:04	ORL	Turkoglu Driving Layup (17 PTS)	79 99.9%	65 0.1%
Q4 - 3:27	DET	Prince 13' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Billups 12 AST)	79 99.9%	63 0.1%
Q4 - 3:42	DET	Prince REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	77 99.8%	63 0.2%
Q4 - 3:43	ORL	MISS Battie Free Throw 2 of 2	77 99.8%	63 0.2%
Q4 - 3:43	ORL	MISS Battie Free Throw 1 of 2	77 99.7%	63 0.3%
Q4 - 3:51	ORL	Francis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	77 99.7%	63 0.3%
Q4 - 3:52	DET	MISS Hamilton 17' Jump Shot	77 99.7%	63 0.3%
Q4 - 4:07	DET	McDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	77 99.8%	63 0.2%
Q4 - 4:09	ORL	MISS Howard 6' Jump Shot	77 99.8%	63 0.2%
Q4 - 4:21	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:7 Def:9)	77 99.7%	63 0.3%
Q4 - 4:24	DET	MISS Wallace 26' 3PT Jump Shot	77 99.8%	63 0.2%
Q4 - 4:49	ORL	Stevenson 21' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Turkoglu 1 AST)	77 99.8%	63 0.2%
Q4 - 5:00	ORL	Turkoglu Free Throw Technical (15 PTS)	77 99.9%	61 0.1%
Q4 - 5:18	DET	Wallace 25' 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Billups 11 AST)	77 99.8%	60 0.2%
Q4 - 5:33	ORL	Turkoglu Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	74 99.7%	60 0.3%
Q4 - 5:33	ORL	Turkoglu Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	74 99.7%	59 0.3%
Q4 - 5:47	DET	Prince REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	74 99.8%	58 0.2%
Q4 - 5:47	DET	Prince Tip Shot (2 PTS)	74 99.8%	58 0.2%
Q4 - 5:50	DET	MISS Hamilton 17' Jump Shot	72 99.6%	58 0.4%
Q4 - 6:08	ORL	Turkoglu Driving Layup (12 PTS) (Dooling 2 AST)	72 99.5%	58 0.5%
Q4 - 6:22	ORL	Dooling REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	72 99.6%	56 0.4%
Q4 - 6:24	DET	MISS McDyess 16' Jump Shot	72 99.7%	56 0.3%
Q4 - 6:46	ORL	Dooling 9' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	72 99.8%	56 0.2%
Q4 - 6:59	ORL	Battie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	72 99.8%	54 0.2%
Q4 - 7:01	DET	MISS Delfino 25' 3PT Jump Shot	72 99.7%	54 0.3%
Q4 - 7:13	DET	Pistons Rebound	72 99.8%	54 0.2%
Q4 - 7:15	DET	MISS Wallace 24' 3PT Jump Shot	72 99.7%	54 0.3%
Q4 - 7:24	DET	Billups REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	72 99.8%	54 0.2%
Q4 - 7:27	ORL	MISS Garrity 21' Jump Shot	72 99.8%	54 0.2%
Q4 - 7:43	ORL	MAGIC Rebound	72 99.7%	54 0.3%
Q4 - 7:44	DET	MISS Wallace 26' 3PT Jump Shot	72 99.7%	54 0.3%
Q4 - 8:06	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)	72 99.7%	54 0.3%
Q4 - 8:07	ORL	MISS Howard Free Throw 2 of 2	72 99.7%	54 0.3%
Q4 - 8:07	ORL	MISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 2	72 99.6%	54 0.4%
Q4 - 8:29	DET	Wallace 25' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Billups 10 AST)	72 99.6%	54 0.4%
Q4 - 8:45	DET	Pistons Rebound	69 99.3%	54 0.7%
Q4 - 8:45	ORL	MISS Turkoglu Running Layup	69 99.3%	54 0.7%
Q4 - 9:06	DET	Stevenson STEAL (1 STL)	69 99.0%	54 1.0%
Q4 - 9:12	DET	Billups REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	69 99.2%	54 0.8%
Q4 - 9:13	ORL	MISS Francis Driving Layup	69 99.1%	54 0.9%
Q4 - 9:28	DET	Wallace 11' Running Jump Shot (17 PTS)	69 99.0%	54 1.0%
Q4 - 9:43	DET	Pistons Rebound	67 98.7%	54 1.3%
Q4 - 9:43	ORL	MISS Garrity 18' Jump Shot	67 98.6%	54 1.4%
Q4 - 10:04	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:7 Def:8)	67 98.0%	54 2.0%
Q4 - 10:06	DET	MISS McDyess 19' Jump Shot	67 98.1%	54 1.9%
Q4 - 10:28	ORL	Garrity Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T16)	67 98.4%	54 1.6%
Q4 - 10:45	DET	Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Evans 2 AST)	67 98.0%	54 2.0%
Q4 - 10:52	DET	Evans REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	64 97.0%	54 3.0%
Q4 - 10:54	ORL	MISS Dooling 20' Jump Shot	64 96.8%	54 3.2%
Q4 - 11:17	DET	Evans Layup (7 PTS) (Delfino 1 AST)	64 95.6%	54 4.4%
Q4 - 11:23	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)	62 94.7%	54 5.3%
Q4 - 11:24	ORL	MISS Dooling Driving Layup	62 94.3%	54 5.7%
Q4 - 11:47	DET	Howard STEAL (1 STL)	62 93.4%	54 6.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ORL		62 94.7%	54 5.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ORL	MAGIC Rebound	62 93.5%	54 6.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ORL	MISS Garrity 3PT Jump Shot	62 94.4%	54 5.6%
Q3 - 0:10.0	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:7 Def:7)	62 93.2%	54 6.8%
Q3 - 0:12.0	DET	MISS McDyess 20' Jump Shot	62 93.6%	54 6.4%
Q3 - 0:29.0	ORL	Francis 12' Jump Bank Shot (7 PTS)	62 94.4%	54 5.6%
Q3 - 0:46.0	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:7 Def:6)	62 95.4%	52 4.6%
Q3 - 0:46.0	DET	MISS Billups Free Throw 2 of 2	62 95.5%	52 4.5%
Q3 - 0:46.0	DET	Billups Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	62 96.2%	52 3.8%
Q3 - 0:48.0	DET	Delfino REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	61 95.4%	52 4.6%
Q3 - 0:51.0	DET	MISS Evans 24' 3PT Jump Shot	61 94.7%	52 5.3%
Q3 - 1:12	ORL	Dooling Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	61 95.1%	52 4.9%
Q3 - 1:12	ORL	Dooling Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	61 95.3%	51 4.7%
Q3 - 1:12	DET	Billups Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T9)	61 95.9%	50 4.1%
Q3 - 1:20	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)	61 96.6%	50 3.4%
Q3 - 1:22	ORL	MISS Dooling 26' 3PT Jump Shot	61 96.4%	50 3.6%
Q3 - 1:47	DET	Delfino Reverse Layup (4 PTS) (Billups 9 AST)	61 95.9%	50 4.1%
Q3 - 2:04	ORL	Turkoglu Driving Layup (10 PTS)	59 94.7%	50 5.3%
Q3 - 2:08	DET	Turkoglu STEAL (2 STL)	59 95.5%	48 4.5%
Q3 - 2:27	ORL	Garrity Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T15)	59 96.3%	48 3.7%
Q3 - 2:31	ORL	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	59 95.5%	48 4.5%
Q3 - 2:33	DET	MISS Wallace 25' 3PT Jump Shot	59 95.8%	48 4.2%
Q3 - 2:45	ORL	Turkoglu Bad Pass Turnover (P5.T14)	59 96.3%	48 3.7%
Q3 - 2:54	ORL	Stevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	59 95.5%	48 4.5%
Q3 - 2:58	DET	Prince REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	59 96.3%	48 3.7%
Q3 - 2:58	DET	Howard BLOCK (3 BLK)	59 95.8%	48 4.2%
Q3 - 3:02	DET	Howard BLOCK (2 BLK)	59 95.5%	48 4.5%
Q3 - 3:17	ORL	Turkoglu Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T13)	59 96.0%	48 4.0%
Q3 - 3:31	DET	Hamilton 8' Turnaround Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Billups 8 AST)	59 95.3%	48 4.7%
Q3 - 3:48	ORL	Turkoglu Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T12)	57 94.4%	48 5.6%
Q3 - 3:52	ORL	Francis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	57 93.4%	48 6.6%
Q3 - 3:54	DET	MISS Prince 7' Fadeaway Jumper	57 93.7%	48 6.3%
Q3 - 4:08	ORL	Battie Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	57 94.3%	48 5.7%
Q3 - 4:08	ORL	MISS Battie Free Throw 1 of 2	57 94.5%	47 5.5%
Q3 - 4:21	ORL	Battie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	57 94.1%	47 5.9%
Q3 - 4:23	DET	MISS Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot	57 94.4%	47 5.6%
Q3 - 4:35	ORL	Howard Foul Turnover (P5.T11)	57 95.1%	47 4.9%
Q3 - 4:45	DET	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	57 94.1%	47 5.9%
Q3 - 5:06	ORL	Stevenson Finger Roll (4 PTS)	54 91.7%	47 8.3%
Q3 - 5:35	DET	Wallace Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T7)	54 92.9%	45 7.1%
Q3 - 5:53	ORL	Howard 10' Hook Shot (17 PTS)	54 94.0%	45 6.0%
Q3 - 6:12	DET	Wallace 15' Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Billups 7 AST)	54 94.5%	43 5.5%
Q3 - 6:34	ORL	Turkoglu 5' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Battie 1 AST)	52 93.7%	43 6.3%
Q3 - 7:00	DET	Hamilton Layup (19 PTS) (Billups 6 AST)	52 94.5%	41 5.5%
Q3 - 7:05	DET	Prince REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	50 93.3%	41 6.7%
Q3 - 7:06	ORL	MISS Francis Layup	50 93.0%	41 7.0%
Q3 - 7:27	DET	Wallace 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Wallace 2 AST)	50 92.1%	41 7.9%
Q3 - 7:37	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)	47 89.8%	41 10.2%
Q3 - 7:40	ORL	MISS Turkoglu 16' Jump Shot	47 89.3%	41 10.7%
Q3 - 8:09	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)	47 88.1%	41 11.9%
Q3 - 8:09	DET	Wallace Follow Up Dunk (2 PTS)	47 88.1%	41 11.9%
Q3 - 8:11	DET	MISS Prince 6' Hook Shot	45 85.3%	41 14.7%
Q3 - 8:31	ORL	Howard Alley Oop Dunk (15 PTS) (Francis 3 AST)	45 86.7%	41 13.3%
Q3 - 8:41	DET	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 1 (10 PTS)	45 88.1%	39 11.9%
Q3 - 8:55	ORL	Stevenson Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T10)	42 84.8%	39 15.2%
Q3 - 8:59	ORL	MAGIC Rebound	42 82.4%	39 17.6%
Q3 - 8:59	ORL	MISS Francis Layup	42 84.1%	39 15.9%
Q3 - 9:04	ORL	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	42 82.8%	39 17.2%
Q3 - 9:06	DET	MISS Billups 12' Fadeaway Jumper	42 83.4%	39 16.6%
Q3 - 9:19	DET	Pistons Rebound	42 84.8%	39 15.2%
Q3 - 9:20	ORL	MISS Stevenson 20' Jump Shot	42 84.2%	39 15.8%
Q3 - 9:41	DET	Wallace 15' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	42 82.8%	39 17.2%
Q3 - 9:55	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)	40 80.7%	39 19.3%
Q3 - 9:57	ORL	MISS Battie 7' Jump Shot	40 79.9%	39 20.1%
Q3 - 10:13	ORL	Francis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	40 78.8%	39 21.2%
Q3 - 10:15	DET	MISS Prince 23' Jump Shot	40 79.5%	39 20.5%
Q3 - 10:36	ORL	Turkoglu Traveling Turnover (P2.T9)	40 81.2%	39 18.8%
Q3 - 11:01	DET	Hamilton Layup (17 PTS) (Prince 1 AST)	40 79.6%	39 20.4%
Q3 - 11:06	ORL	Francis Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T8)	38 77.3%	39 22.7%
Q3 - 11:23	ORL	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	38 74.7%	39 25.3%
Q3 - 11:25	DET	MISS Hamilton 18' Jump Shot	38 75.5%	39 24.5%
Q3 - 11:38	ORL	Turkoglu Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	38 77.3%	39 22.7%
Q3 - 11:38	ORL	Turkoglu Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	38 77.6%	38 22.4%
Q2 - 0:00.0	DET		38 79.5%	37 20.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0	DET	Pistons Rebound	38 81.8%	37 18.2%
Q2 - 0:01.0	DET	MISS Billups 7' Jump Shot	38 80.5%	37 19.5%
Q2 - 0:19.0	DET	Billups REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	38 81.5%	37 18.5%
Q2 - 0:21.0	ORL	MISS Francis 5' Jump Shot	38 81.1%	37 18.9%
Q2 - 0:33.0	ORL	Francis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	38 80.0%	37 20.0%
Q2 - 0:35.0	ORL	MISS Turkoglu 14' Running Jump Shot	38 81.1%	37 18.9%
Q2 - 1:02	DET	Hamilton 24' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Billups 4 AST)	38 80.2%	37 19.8%
Q2 - 1:24	ORL	Howard 8' Hook Shot (13 PTS)	35 74.6%	37 25.4%
Q2 - 1:47	DET	Hamilton 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Billups 3 AST)	35 78.1%	35 21.9%
Q2 - 2:14	ORL	Francis Driving Layup (5 PTS)	32 73.0%	35 27.0%
Q2 - 2:19	DET	Battie STEAL (2 STL)	32 75.5%	33 24.5%
Q2 - 2:40	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	32 77.6%	33 22.4%
Q2 - 2:40	ORL	MISS Stevenson Free Throw 2 of 2	32 77.3%	33 22.7%
Q2 - 2:40	ORL	MISS Stevenson Free Throw 1 of 2	32 75.9%	33 24.1%
Q2 - 3:07	DET	Evans 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Arroyo 3 AST)	32 75.9%	33 24.1%
Q2 - 3:20	DET	Evans REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	29 71.5%	33 28.5%
Q2 - 3:23	ORL	MISS Dooling 18' Running Jump Shot	29 70.7%	33 29.3%
Q2 - 3:40	DET	McDyess 13' Fadeaway Jumper (4 PTS)	29 68.7%	33 31.3%
Q2 - 4:05	ORL	Garrity 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Stevenson 2 AST)	27 67.3%	33 32.7%
Q2 - 4:14	ORL	Stevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	27 72.2%	30 27.8%
Q2 - 4:17	DET	MISS Prince 17' Jump Shot	27 72.9%	30 27.1%
Q2 - 4:39	ORL	Dooling Driving Layup (4 PTS)	27 74.4%	30 25.6%
Q2 - 4:55	ORL	Stevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	27 76.5%	28 23.5%
Q2 - 4:57	DET	MISS Wallace 26' 3PT Jump Shot	27 77.1%	28 22.9%
Q2 - 5:11	DET	Arroyo REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	27 78.9%	28 21.1%
Q2 - 5:13	DET	MISS Wallace 21' Jump Shot	27 77.5%	28 22.5%
Q2 - 5:32	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	27 78.9%	28 21.1%
Q2 - 5:34	ORL	MISS Dooling 20' Jump Shot	27 78.3%	28 21.7%
Q2 - 5:51	ORL	Battie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	27 76.8%	28 23.2%
Q2 - 5:53	DET	MISS Wallace 25' 3PT Jump Shot	27 77.5%	28 22.5%
Q2 - 6:08	ORL	Turkoglu 21' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	27 79.4%	28 20.6%
Q2 - 6:26	ORL	Battie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	27 80.8%	26 19.2%
Q2 - 6:27	DET	MISS McDyess Free Throw 2 of 2	27 81.0%	26 19.0%
Q2 - 6:27	DET	MISS McDyess Free Throw 1 of 2	27 81.9%	26 18.1%
Q2 - 6:37	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	27 82.7%	26 17.3%
Q2 - 6:39	ORL	MISS Dooling 19' Jump Shot	27 82.1%	26 17.9%
Q2 - 6:55	DET	Evans Slam Dunk (2 PTS) (Arroyo 2 AST)	27 80.7%	26 19.3%
Q2 - 6:59	DET	Arroyo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	25 79.3%	26 20.7%
Q2 - 7:02	ORL	MISS Dooling Driving Layup	25 78.9%	26 21.1%
Q2 - 7:08	ORL	Battie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	25 77.6%	26 22.4%
Q2 - 7:10	DET	MISS Arroyo 8' Jump Shot	25 78.2%	26 21.8%
Q2 - 7:18	DET	Pistons Rebound	25 79.5%	26 20.5%
Q2 - 7:19	DET	MISS Evans 12' Running Jump Shot	25 78.2%	26 21.8%
Q2 - 7:29	ORL	Stevenson Discontinue Dribble Turnover (P1.T7)	25 79.5%	26 20.5%
Q2 - 7:48	DET	Delfino Layup (2 PTS) (Arroyo 1 AST)	25 77.6%	26 22.4%
Q2 - 7:51	DET	Arroyo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	23 75.8%	26 24.2%
Q2 - 7:54	DET	MISS McDyess 15' Jump Shot	23 74.3%	26 25.7%
Q2 - 7:59	DET	Delfino REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	23 75.8%	26 24.2%
Q2 - 8:02	DET	MISS Delfino 16' Jump Shot	23 74.3%	26 25.7%
Q2 - 8:08	DET	McDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	23 75.8%	26 24.2%
Q2 - 8:09	ORL	MISS Garrity Layup	23 75.2%	26 24.8%
Q2 - 8:31	DET	Wallace 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Evans 1 AST)	23 73.6%	26 26.4%
Q2 - 8:43	DET	Delfino REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	20 69.7%	26 30.3%
Q2 - 8:45	ORL	MISS Stevenson 19' Jump Shot	20 69.0%	26 31.0%
Q2 - 9:05	DET	Augmon STEAL (1 STL)	20 67.9%	26 32.1%
Q2 - 9:25	ORL	Augmon Layup (2 PTS) (Howard 1 AST)	20 70.2%	26 29.8%
Q2 - 9:47	ORL	Garrity REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 72.0%	24 28.0%
Q2 - 9:49	DET	MISS Wallace 25' 3PT Jump Shot	20 72.7%	24 27.3%
Q2 - 9:58	ORL	Howard Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T6)	20 74.2%	24 25.8%
Q2 - 10:13	ORL	Dooling REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	20 71.9%	24 28.1%
Q2 - 10:14	DET	MISS Wallace 10' Jump Shot	20 72.6%	24 27.4%
Q2 - 10:29	ORL	Howard 5' Driving Hook Shot (11 PTS)	20 74.1%	24 25.9%
Q2 - 10:44	ORL	MAGIC Rebound	20 75.8%	22 24.2%
Q2 - 10:45	DET	MISS Delfino 12' Jump Shot	20 76.4%	22 23.6%
Q2 - 11:04	ORL	Dooling Driving Layup (2 PTS)	20 77.9%	22 22.1%
Q2 - 11:07	ORL	Dooling REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 79.6%	20 20.4%
Q2 - 11:09	DET	Howard BLOCK (1 BLK)	20 80.1%	20 19.9%
Q2 - 11:23	DET	Delfino REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	20 81.1%	20 18.9%
Q2 - 11:26	DET	MISS Billups 20' Jump Shot	20 80.0%	20 20.0%
Q2 - 11:46	ORL	Howard Layup (9 PTS)	20 81.1%	20 18.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	DET		20 82.5%	18 17.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	20 83.9%	18 16.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ORL	MISS Howard Free Throw 2 of 2	20 83.7%	18 16.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ORL	Howard Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	20 82.9%	18 17.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:7 Def:5)	20 83.9%	17 16.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:6 Def:5)	20 83.9%	17 16.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ORL	MISS Howard Layup	20 84.8%	17 15.2%
Q1 - 0:01.0	ORL	MISS Francis 18' Jump Shot	20 84.6%	17 15.4%
Q1 - 0:20.0	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:5 Def:5)	20 83.9%	17 16.1%
Q1 - 0:22.0	DET	MISS Hamilton 15' Jump Shot	20 84.2%	17 15.8%
Q1 - 0:36.0	ORL	Garrity Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Dooling 1 AST)	20 84.9%	17 15.1%
Q1 - 0:49.0	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:5 Def:4)	20 86.3%	15 13.7%
Q1 - 0:51.0	ORL	MISS Garrity 26' 3PT Jump Shot	20 86.9%	15 13.1%
Q1 - 1:04	DET	Hamilton Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	20 86.3%	15 13.7%
Q1 - 1:04	DET	Hamilton Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	19 86.2%	15 13.8%
Q1 - 1:19	DET	Billups REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	18 84.9%	15 15.1%
Q1 - 1:22	ORL	MISS Francis Driving Layup	18 84.6%	15 15.4%
Q1 - 1:35	DET	McDyess 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Hamilton 2 AST)	18 83.9%	15 16.1%
Q1 - 1:51	ORL	Turkoglu Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)	16 82.3%	15 17.7%
Q1 - 2:15	DET	Billups 12' Fadeaway Jumper (7 PTS)	16 81.4%	15 18.6%
Q1 - 2:38	ORL	Howard Alley Oop Dunk (6 PTS) (Stevenson 1 AST)	14 79.8%	15 20.2%
Q1 - 2:43	DET	Turkoglu STEAL (1 STL)	14 81.4%	13 18.6%
Q1 - 2:49	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	14 82.7%	13 17.3%
Q1 - 2:51	ORL	MISS Stevenson Driving Layup	14 82.3%	13 17.7%
Q1 - 3:14	DET	Hamilton 6' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Billups 2 AST)	14 81.3%	13 18.7%
Q1 - 3:16	DET	Billups REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	12 80.1%	13 19.9%
Q1 - 3:18	DET	MISS Wallace 26' 3PT Jump Shot	12 79.0%	13 21.0%
Q1 - 3:34	ORL	Turkoglu Driving Layup (2 PTS)	12 80.1%	13 19.9%
Q1 - 3:54	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)	12 81.3%	11 18.7%
Q1 - 3:56	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	12 82.8%	11 17.2%
Q1 - 3:56	DET	MISS Wallace Tip Shot	12 81.8%	11 18.2%
Q1 - 3:57	DET	MISS Wallace Layup	12 81.8%	11 18.2%
Q1 - 3:58	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	12 82.8%	11 17.2%
Q1 - 4:00	DET	MISS Hamilton 15' Jump Shot	12 81.8%	11 18.2%
Q1 - 4:07	ORL	Howard Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T4)	12 83.2%	11 16.8%
Q1 - 4:26	DET	Billups 21' Jump Shot (5 PTS)	12 81.6%	11 18.4%
Q1 - 4:32	ORL	Howard Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T3)	10 80.5%	11 19.5%
Q1 - 4:49	DET	Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)	10 78.8%	11 21.2%
Q1 - 5:05	ORL	Francis 10' Fadeaway Jumper (3 PTS)	7 76.6%	11 23.4%
Q1 - 5:23	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)	7 77.9%	9 22.1%
Q1 - 5:25	DET	MISS Prince 17' Jump Shot	7 78.4%	9 21.6%
Q1 - 5:50	ORL	Battie Slam Dunk (2 PTS) (Francis 2 AST)	7 79.4%	9 20.6%
Q1 - 5:53	DET	Francis STEAL (1 STL)	7 80.6%	7 19.4%
Q1 - 5:55	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	7 82.1%	7 17.9%
Q1 - 5:56	ORL	MISS Stevenson Reverse Layup	7 81.6%	7 18.4%
Q1 - 6:18	DET	Wallace 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Hamilton 1 AST)	7 80.7%	7 19.3%
Q1 - 6:39	ORL	Howard 5' Finger Roll (4 PTS)	5 79.5%	7 20.5%
Q1 - 6:55	DET	Battie STEAL (1 STL)	5 80.7%	5 19.3%
Q1 - 7:08	ORL	Howard Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	5 82.3%	5 17.7%
Q1 - 7:10	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)	5 81.0%	5 19.0%
Q1 - 7:12	ORL	MISS Turkoglu 6' Jump Shot	5 81.9%	5 18.1%
Q1 - 7:30	ORL	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	5 81.0%	5 19.0%
Q1 - 7:31	DET	MISS Wallace 6' Jump Shot	5 81.4%	5 18.6%
Q1 - 7:43	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	5 82.3%	5 17.7%
Q1 - 7:45	ORL	MISS Battie 7' Jump Shot	5 81.9%	5 18.1%
Q1 - 7:55	ORL	Battie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	5 81.0%	5 19.0%
Q1 - 7:57	DET	MISS Billups 8' Fadeaway Jumper	5 81.4%	5 18.6%
Q1 - 8:11	ORL	Francis Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	5 82.8%	5 17.2%
Q1 - 8:11	ORL	MISS Francis Free Throw 1 of 2	5 83.0%	4 17.0%
Q1 - 8:22	DET	Hamilton Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	5 82.7%	4 17.3%
Q1 - 8:24	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	2 80.6%	4 19.4%
Q1 - 8:27	ORL	MISS Turkoglu 22' Jump Shot	2 80.2%	4 19.8%
Q1 - 8:34	ORL	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 79.2%	4 20.8%
Q1 - 8:38	DET	MISS Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot	2 79.6%	4 20.4%
Q1 - 8:48	ORL	Battie Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	2 80.5%	4 19.5%
Q1 - 8:57	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	2 79.2%	4 20.8%
Q1 - 8:59	ORL	MISS Howard 7' Hook Shot	2 80.1%	4 19.9%
Q1 - 9:00	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	2 79.2%	4 20.8%
Q1 - 9:02	ORL	MISS Battie 17' Jump Shot	2 80.1%	4 19.9%
Q1 - 9:12	DET	Wallace Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	2 79.0%	4 21.0%
Q1 - 9:22	DET	Prince REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 80.6%	4 19.4%
Q1 - 9:24	ORL	MISS Howard Slam Dunk	2 80.1%	4 19.9%
Q1 - 9:49	DET	Hamilton Layup (2 PTS) (Wallace 1 AST)	2 79.1%	4 20.9%
Q1 - 9:51	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 78.1%	4 21.9%
Q1 - 9:53	DET	MISS Hamilton 18' Jump Shot	0 77.0%	4 23.0%
Q1 - 10:10	ORL	Stevenson 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Francis 1 AST)	0 78.1%	4 21.9%
Q1 - 10:26	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	0 79.2%	2 20.8%
Q1 - 10:27	DET	MISS Wallace Layup	0 79.6%	2 20.4%
Q1 - 10:47	ORL	Howard Slam Dunk (2 PTS)	0 80.5%	2 19.5%
Q1 - 10:48	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	0 81.5%	0 18.5%
Q1 - 10:50	ORL	MISS Turkoglu 25' 3PT Jump Shot	0 82.4%	0 17.6%
Q1 - 11:07	ORL	Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 81.7%	0 18.3%
Q1 - 11:09	DET	MISS Prince 17' Jump Shot	0 82.0%	0 18.0%
Q1 - 11:19	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 82.7%	0 17.3%
Q1 - 11:21	ORL	MISS Francis 20' Jump Shot	0 82.4%	0 17.6%
Q1 - 11:37	ORL	MAGIC Rebound	0 81.7%	0 18.3%
Q1 - 11:38	DET	Stevenson BLOCK (1 BLK)	0 82.0%	0 18.0%
Q1 - 12:00	ORL	Jump Ball Howard vs. Wallace: Tip to Billups	0 82.7%	0 17.3%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DET

0.93 46.7%

ORL

0.94 46.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DET

71%

ORL

61%

Midrange

DET

27%

ORL

33%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DET

15.0

45%

68%

ORL

1.5

20%

30%

Free Throws

DET

67%

ORL

53%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pistons

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Wallace	26	62%	13.0 / 21
R. Hamilton	23	64%	11.5 / 18
C. Billups	11	50%	5.5 / 11
M. Evans	7	70%	3.5 / 5
B. Wallace	5	50%	2.5 / 5
T. Prince	4	17%	2.0 / 12
A. McDyess	4	25%	2.0 / 8
C. Delfino	4	33%	2.0 / 6
C. Arroyo	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Magic

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Howard	19	63%	9.5 / 15
H. Turkoglu	17	61%	8.5 / 14
D. Stevenson	10	50%	5.0 / 10
S. Francis	9	35%	4.5 / 13
K. Dooling	8	36%	4.0 / 11
P. Garrity	5	36%	2.5 / 7
T. Battie	3	25%	1.5 / 6
S. Augmon	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DET

+15

-11

ORL

+10

-17

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DET

0.93 46.7%

ORL

0.94 46.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	110.1 106.6	DET 102.4 ORL 85.9 +16.6
Pace	87.4 88.1	DET 79.9 ORL 87.2 +7.3
Avg. Poss. Time	17.3 16.6	DET 18.0 ORL 16.5 +1.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	49.7% 49.6%	DET 46.4% +0.1% ORL 46.3%
TO %	12.2% 16.2%	DET 11.1% +7.1% ORL 18.2%
ORB %	28.9% 28.6%	DET 26.1% +3.9% ORL 22.2%
FTrt	29.7 36.9	DET 10.7 ORL 27.9 +17.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	66.1% 51.4%	DET 76.5% +44.2% ORL 32.3%
STL %	8.0% 7.3%	DET 7.3% ORL 9.4% +2.1%
BLK %	9.0% 7.2%	DET 4.8% ORL 6.5% +1.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.33 and 2.33.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.1% 52.5%	DET 46.7% ORL 46.8% +0.1%
Rim FG%	59.0% 57.7%	DET 70.6% +10.0% ORL 60.6%
Mid FG%	41.0% 41.0%	DET 26.7% ORL 33.3% +6.6%
3P %	38.4% 37.6%	DET 45.5% +25.5% ORL 20.0%
FT %	72.7% 73.0%	DET 66.7% +14.1% ORL 52.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	28.3% 39.9%	DET 20.2% ORL 48.5% +28.3%
Mid Att. %	49.6% 47.2%	DET 53.6% ORL 44.1% +9.5%
3P Att. %	22.1% 12.9%	DET 26.2% +18.8% ORL 7.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DET	ORL
Possessions	82	85
Possession Minutes	24.6	23.4
Points	84	73
Rebounds	40	42
Assists	26	10
Steals	6	8
Blocks	3	4
Turnovers (Team)	11 (0)	17 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (3)	8 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	28 (3)	34 (3)
Field Goals	34-84	31-68
At-the-Rim FG	12-17	20-33
Midrange FG	12-45	10-30
2-Point FG	24-62	30-63
3-Point FG	10-22	1-5
Free Throws	6-9	10-19
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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1 Detroit Pistons

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 29	41.7	11	50%	5	14	0	0	3	2	1	4	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	2-4	50%
Rasheed Wallace F · 6'11" 230 · 31	41.5	26	62%	9	0	1	2	3	2	0	9	1-1	100%	5-8	63%	5-13	38%
Tayshaun Prince F · 6'9" 212 · 26	32.8	4	17%	5	1	2	0	1	0	2	3	0-0	-	2-12	17%	0-0	-
Ben Wallace C · 6'9" 240 · 31	32.5	5	50%	10	2	1	0	1	1	4	6	1-1	100%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Richard Hamilton G · 6'7" 193 · 28	32.3	23	64%	0	3	1	0	2	4	0	0	3-3	100%	7-15	47%	2-2	100%
Antonio McDyess F-C · 6'9" 245 · 31	22.0	4	25%	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-2	0%	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Maurice Evans G-F · 6'5" 220 · 27	15.7	7	70%	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Carlos Delfino G-F · 6'6" 230 · 23	15.2	4	33%	4	1	0	0	1	2	3	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-1	0%
Carlos Arroyo G · 6'2" 200 · 27	6.3	0	0%	3	3	0	1	0	1	2	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Darko Milicic C · 7'0" 275 · 21
Lindsey Hunter G · 6'2" 195 · 35
Dale Davis C-F · 6'11" 252 · 37
Jason Maxiell #54 · F · 6'7" 260 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Amir Johnson #25 · C-F · 6'9" 240 · 19	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Alex Acker #6 · G · 6'5" 185 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	84	47%	40	26	6	3	11	0	12	28	6-9	67%	24-62	39%	10-22	45%

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1 Detroit Pistons

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 29	41.7	11	50%	5	14	0	0	3	2	1	4	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	2-4	50%
Rasheed Wallace F · 6'11" 230 · 31	41.5	26	62%	9	0	1	2	3	2	0	9	1-1	100%	5-8	63%	5-13	38%
Tayshaun Prince F · 6'9" 212 · 26	32.8	4	17%	5	1	2	0	1	0	2	3	0-0	-	2-12	17%	0-0	-
Ben Wallace C · 6'9" 240 · 31	32.5	5	50%	10	2	1	0	1	1	4	6	1-1	100%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Richard Hamilton G · 6'7" 193 · 28	32.3	23	64%	0	3	1	0	2	4	0	0	3-3	100%	7-15	47%	2-2	100%
Antonio McDyess F-C · 6'9" 245 · 31	22.0	4	25%	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-2	0%	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Maurice Evans G-F · 6'5" 220 · 27	15.7	7	70%	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Carlos Delfino G-F · 6'6" 230 · 23	15.2	4	33%	4	1	0	0	1	2	3	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-1	0%
Carlos Arroyo G · 6'2" 200 · 27	6.3	0	0%	3	3	0	1	0	1	2	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Darko Milicic C · 7'0" 275 · 21
Lindsey Hunter G · 6'2" 195 · 35
Dale Davis C-F · 6'11" 252 · 37
Jason Maxiell #54 · F · 6'7" 260 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Amir Johnson #25 · C-F · 6'9" 240 · 19	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Alex Acker #6 · G · 6'5" 185 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	84	47%	40	26	6	3	11	0	12	28	6-9	67%	24-62	39%	10-22	45%

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25 Orlando Magic

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dwight Howard F · 6'11" 265 · 20	43.5	19	63%	17	1	1	3	6	3	7	10	1-4	25%	9-13	69%	0-0	-
DeShawn Stevenson G · 6'5" 218 · 25	41.4	10	50%	4	2	1	1	2	0	0	4	0-2	0%	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Hedo Turkoglu F · 6'10" 220 · 27	39.9	17	61%	5	1	2	0	5	0	0	5	5-5	100%	6-11	55%	0-1	0%
Steve Francis G · 6'3" 210 · 29	38.1	9	35%	5	3	1	0	1	3	1	4	1-2	50%	4-12	33%	0-0	-
Tony Battie C · 6'11" 240 · 30	34.9	3	25%	7	1	2	0	1	3	0	7	1-4	25%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Keyon Dooling G · 6'3" 195 · 26	19.4	8	36%	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	3	2-2	100%	3-9	33%	0-1	0%
Pat Garrity F · 6'9" 238 · 29	17.7	5	36%	1	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-3	33%
Stacey Augmon F-G · 6'8" 213 · 38	5.2	2	100%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Grant Hill F · 6'8" 225 · 33
Travis Diener G · 6'1" 175 · 24
Mario Kasun C · 7'1" 260 · 26
Terence Morris F · 6'9" 221 · 27
Kelvin Cato #13 · C · 6'11" 275 · 31	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Bo Outlaw #45 · F · 6'8" 220 · 35	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jameer Nelson #14 · G · 6'0" 190 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	73	47%	42	10	8	4	17	0	8	34	10-19	53%	30-63	48%	1-5	20%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE