Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, April 9, 2006

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	6	Grizzlies	40%	85	81
	5	Spurs	60%	89	83

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
MEM	96.4	84	77.3
SAS	96.5	86	94.1

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+13

-12

SAS

+11

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

0.93 46.6%

SAS

0.98 48.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS		81 0%	83 100%
Q4 - 0:03.0	SAS	Barry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	81 2.2%	83 97.8%
Q4 - 0:05.0	MEM	MISS Gasol 2' Driving Layup	81 3.2%	83 96.8%
Q4 - 0:25.0	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9)	81 19.2%	83 80.8%
Q4 - 0:26.0	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	81 14.8%	83 85.2%
Q4 - 0:47.0	SAS	Van Exel REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	81 12.3%	83 87.7%
Q4 - 0:49.0	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)	81 23.5%	83 76.5%
Q4 - 0:49.0	MEM	MISS Battier 1' Tip Shot	81 15.5%	83 84.5%
Q4 - 0:51.0	MEM	MISS Atkins 20' Jump Shot	81 16.0%	83 84.0%
Q4 - 0:54.0	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1)	81 24.0%	83 76.0%
Q4 - 0:56.0	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (3 BLK)	81 16.3%	83 83.7%
Q4 - 1:17	SAS	Duncan Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T13)	81 25.3%	83 74.7%
Q4 - 1:19	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9)	81 15.2%	83 84.8%
Q4 - 1:21	SAS	MISS Van Exel 25' 3PT Jump Shot	81 22.1%	83 77.9%
Q4 - 1:35	SAS	Van Exel REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	81 16.8%	83 83.2%
Q4 - 1:37	MEM	MISS Gasol 17' Jump Shot	81 19.6%	83 80.4%
Q4 - 1:49	SAS	Parker 17' Jump Shot (19 PTS)	81 27.1%	83 72.9%
Q4 - 2:05	MEM	Miller 1' Driving Layup (14 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)	81 35.4%	81 64.6%
Q4 - 2:28	SAS	Duncan Foul Turnover (P3.T12)	79 29.6%	81 70.4%
Q4 - 2:37	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	79 17.3%	81 82.7%
Q4 - 2:39	MEM	Bowen BLOCK (1 BLK)	79 20.6%	81 79.4%
Q4 - 2:48	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	79 29.8%	81 70.2%
Q4 - 2:50	SAS	MISS Finley 18' Fadeaway Jumper	79 25.5%	81 74.5%
Q4 - 3:13	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	79 18.8%	81 81.2%
Q4 - 3:13	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	78 17.3%	81 82.7%
Q4 - 3:26	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:9)	77 15.4%	81 84.6%
Q4 - 3:26	SAS	Duncan 2' Layup (23 PTS)	77 15.4%	81 84.6%
Q4 - 3:28	SAS	MISS Duncan 2' Driving Finger Roll	77 26.2%	79 73.8%
Q4 - 3:51	MEM	Gasol Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P8.T14)	77 22.2%	79 77.8%
Q4 - 3:59	MEM	Atkins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	77 29.7%	79 70.3%
Q4 - 4:00	SAS	MISS Parker 3' Driving Layup	77 27.2%	79 72.8%
Q4 - 4:17	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	77 22.0%	79 78.0%
Q4 - 4:17	MEM	Battier 2' Tip Shot (10 PTS)	77 22.0%	79 78.0%
Q4 - 4:20	MEM	MISS Atkins 3' Layup	75 13.0%	79 87.0%
Q4 - 4:28	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	75 16.4%	79 83.6%
Q4 - 4:31	SAS	MISS Finley 3' Layup	75 14.8%	79 85.2%
Q4 - 4:53	MEM	Atkins Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	75 11.5%	79 88.5%
Q4 - 4:53	MEM	MISS Atkins Free Throw 1 of 2	74 10.9%	79 89.1%
Q4 - 4:57	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	74 11.8%	79 88.2%
Q4 - 4:59	SAS	MISS Van Exel 6' Running Jump Shot	74 10.5%	79 89.5%
Q4 - 5:14	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	74 10.1%	79 89.9%
Q4 - 5:16	MEM	MISS Gasol 12' Turnaround Jump Shot	74 11.1%	79 88.9%
Q4 - 5:38	SAS	Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Van Exel 3 AST)	74 13.7%	79 86.3%
Q4 - 5:43	SAS	Van Exel REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	74 23.4%	76 76.6%
Q4 - 5:45	MEM	MISS Battier 16' Jump Shot	74 25.4%	76 74.6%
Q4 - 6:13	SAS	Finley 12' Fadeaway Jumper (8 PTS)	74 31.1%	76 68.9%
Q4 - 6:26	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:9)	74 36.9%	74 63.1%
Q4 - 6:29	MEM	MISS Miller 22' Jump Shot	74 39.4%	74 60.6%
Q4 - 6:50	SAS	Duncan 2' Layup (21 PTS) (Finley 2 AST)	74 45.3%	74 54.7%
Q4 - 6:57	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	74 51.9%	72 48.1%
Q4 - 6:59	MEM	MISS Jackson 17' Fadeaway Jumper	74 54.5%	72 45.5%
Q4 - 7:08	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	74 58.5%	72 41.5%
Q4 - 7:10	SAS	MISS Parker 21' Jump Shot	74 56.2%	72 43.8%
Q4 - 7:23	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	74 50.9%	72 49.1%
Q4 - 7:23	MEM	MISS Tsakalidis Free Throw 2 of 2	74 51.9%	72 48.1%
Q4 - 7:23	MEM	Tsakalidis Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	74 55.8%	72 44.2%
Q4 - 7:32	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	73 51.8%	72 48.2%
Q4 - 7:34	MEM	MISS Atkins 24' 3PT Jump Shot	73 46.3%	72 53.7%
Q4 - 8:00	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)	73 51.8%	72 48.2%
Q4 - 8:01	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 1	73 49.5%	72 50.5%
Q4 - 8:12	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	73 56.6%	70 43.4%
Q4 - 8:14	MEM	MISS Battier 5' Jump Shot	73 58.6%	70 41.4%
Q4 - 8:37	SAS	Duncan 2' Layup (17 PTS) (Barry 2 AST)	73 63.0%	70 37.0%
Q4 - 8:50	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	73 68.6%	68 31.4%
Q4 - 8:52	MEM	MISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot	73 70.3%	68 29.7%
Q4 - 9:07	SAS	Parker 7' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Van Exel 1 AST)	73 72.1%	68 27.9%
Q4 - 9:28	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	73 76.5%	66 23.5%
Q4 - 9:29	MEM	MISS Miller Free Throw 2 of 2	73 77.1%	66 22.9%
Q4 - 9:29	MEM	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	73 79.8%	66 20.2%
Q4 - 9:41	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	72 76.7%	66 23.3%
Q4 - 9:43	SAS	MISS Van Exel 24' 3PT Jump Shot	72 75.4%	66 24.6%
Q4 - 10:00	MEM	Jackson 7' Running Jump Shot (5 PTS)	72 72.0%	66 28.0%
Q4 - 10:08	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	70 65.5%	66 34.5%
Q4 - 10:10	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	70 63.8%	66 36.2%
Q4 - 10:29	MEM	Miller 1' Driving Layup (11 PTS)	70 59.9%	66 40.1%
Q4 - 10:52	SAS	Van Exel 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Duncan 5 AST)	68 54.8%	66 45.2%
Q4 - 11:00	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	68 65.3%	63 34.7%
Q4 - 11:01	SAS	MISS Finley 13' Jump Shot	68 67.6%	63 32.4%
Q4 - 11:20	MEM	Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS)	68 64.1%	63 35.9%
Q4 - 11:39	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	65 53.9%	63 46.1%
Q4 - 11:41	SAS	MISS Duncan 7' Jump Shot	65 52.2%	63 47.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MEM		65 48.3%	63 51.7%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	65 54.0%	63 46.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MEM	MISS Jackson 44' 3PT Running Jump Shot	65 50.0%	63 50.0%
Q3 - 0:01.0	SAS	Horry 24' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	65 52.9%	63 47.1%
Q3 - 0:20.0	MEM	Miller 2' Driving Layup (6 PTS)	65 63.0%	60 37.0%
Q3 - 0:38.0	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	63 58.1%	60 41.9%
Q3 - 0:40.0	SAS	MISS Horry 7' Hook Shot	63 56.6%	60 43.4%
Q3 - 0:58.0	MEM	Wright 1' Dunk (4 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)	63 53.1%	60 46.9%
Q3 - 1:17	SAS	Horry 2' Layup (7 PTS)	61 47.3%	60 52.7%
Q3 - 1:19	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	61 52.1%	58 47.9%
Q3 - 1:20	SAS	MISS Bowen 4' Jump Shot	61 55.6%	58 44.4%
Q3 - 1:40	MEM	Gasol 7' Jump Bank Shot (12 PTS)	61 52.1%	58 47.9%
Q3 - 1:59	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	59 47.4%	58 52.6%
Q3 - 2:00	SAS	MISS Finley Free Throw 1 of 1	59 46.7%	58 53.3%
Q3 - 2:08	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	59 50.7%	56 49.3%
Q3 - 2:10	MEM	MISS Jones 4' Driving Layup	59 52.3%	56 47.7%
Q3 - 2:24	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	59 55.8%	56 44.2%
Q3 - 2:25	SAS	MISS Horry 19' Jump Shot	59 54.3%	56 45.7%
Q3 - 2:43	MEM	Jackson Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	59 50.8%	56 49.2%
Q3 - 2:57	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	56 42.0%	56 58.0%
Q3 - 2:59	SAS	MISS Mohammed 3' Layup	56 40.5%	56 59.5%
Q3 - 3:02	MEM	Horry STEAL (2 STL)	56 37.4%	56 62.6%
Q3 - 3:05	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	56 41.9%	56 58.1%
Q3 - 3:06	SAS	MISS Mohammed 4' Jump Shot	56 40.5%	56 59.5%
Q3 - 3:21	MEM	Tsakalidis Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS)	56 37.3%	56 62.7%
Q3 - 3:37	SAS	Finley 21' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Duncan 4 AST)	53 29.6%	56 70.4%
Q3 - 4:02	MEM	Tsakalidis 3' Layup (11 PTS) (Miller 3 AST)	53 32.9%	54 67.1%
Q3 - 4:20	SAS	Duncan 3 Second Violation Turnover (P2.T11)	51 29.8%	54 70.2%
Q3 - 4:33	MEM	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	51 25.8%	54 74.2%
Q3 - 4:33	MEM	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	50 25.2%	54 74.8%
Q3 - 4:48	SAS	Parker 2' Layup (15 PTS) (Duncan 3 AST)	49 23.1%	54 76.9%
Q3 - 5:02	MEM	Atkins 2' Layup (7 PTS)	49 26.3%	52 73.7%
Q3 - 5:07	SAS	Parker Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T10)	47 23.4%	52 76.6%
Q3 - 5:23	MEM	Grizzlies Turnover: Shot Clock (T#12)	47 20.4%	52 79.6%
Q3 - 5:48	SAS	Mohammed Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T9)	47 23.4%	52 76.6%
Q3 - 6:02	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	47 20.8%	52 79.2%
Q3 - 6:04	MEM	MISS Gasol 8' Turnaround Jump Shot	47 21.6%	52 78.4%
Q3 - 6:24	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)	47 23.7%	52 76.3%
Q3 - 6:24	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)	47 24.6%	51 75.4%
Q3 - 6:51	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	47 26.5%	50 73.5%
Q3 - 6:53	MEM	MISS Gasol 17' Jump Shot	47 27.6%	50 72.4%
Q3 - 7:13	SAS	Duncan 3' Alley Oop Dunk (13 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	47 30.1%	50 69.9%
Q3 - 7:22	SAS	Jump Ball Duncan vs. Tsakalidis: Tip to Parker	47 32.9%	48 67.1%
Q3 - 7:24	MEM	MISS Gasol 6' Hook Shot	47 34.1%	48 65.9%
Q3 - 7:44	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)	47 37.0%	48 63.0%
Q3 - 7:46	MEM	MISS Jones 22' Jump Shot	47 34.2%	48 65.8%
Q3 - 8:05	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	47 37.0%	48 63.0%
Q3 - 8:07	SAS	MISS Bowen 18' Jump Shot	47 35.8%	48 64.2%
Q3 - 8:10	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	47 33.1%	48 66.9%
Q3 - 8:11	SAS	MISS Parker 2' Reverse Layup	47 35.8%	48 64.2%
Q3 - 8:28	MEM	Tsakalidis Offensive Goaltending Turnover (P1.T11)	47 33.1%	48 66.9%
Q3 - 8:46	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	47 37.0%	48 63.0%
Q3 - 8:48	SAS	MISS Duncan 18' Jump Shot	47 35.8%	48 64.2%
Q3 - 9:05	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	47 33.0%	48 67.0%
Q3 - 9:07	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (2 BLK)	47 34.0%	48 66.0%
Q3 - 9:18	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	47 36.5%	48 63.5%
Q3 - 9:20	SAS	MISS Bowen 2' Layup	47 35.4%	48 64.6%
Q3 - 9:24	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	47 33.0%	48 67.0%
Q3 - 9:25	MEM	MISS Gasol 1' Layup	47 34.1%	48 65.9%
Q3 - 9:46	SAS	Bowen 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	47 36.5%	48 63.5%
Q3 - 9:56	SAS	Barry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	47 43.4%	45 56.6%
Q3 - 9:57	MEM	MISS Jones 11' Jump Bank Shot	47 44.6%	45 55.4%
Q3 - 9:58	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	47 47.2%	45 52.8%
Q3 - 10:00	MEM	MISS Jones 18' Jump Shot	47 44.6%	45 55.4%
Q3 - 10:18	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	47 46.8%	45 53.2%
Q3 - 10:19	MEM	MISS Tsakalidis 5' Jump Bank Shot	47 44.0%	45 56.0%
Q3 - 10:36	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	47 46.8%	45 53.2%
Q3 - 10:37	SAS	MISS Bowen 24' 3PT Jump Shot	47 45.6%	45 54.4%
Q3 - 10:58	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	47 42.9%	45 57.1%
Q3 - 10:58	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	46 42.0%	45 58.0%
Q3 - 11:17	SAS	Parker 1' Layup (13 PTS) (Bowen 3 AST)	45 39.5%	45 60.5%
Q3 - 11:21	MEM	Duncan STEAL (2 STL)	45 42.7%	43 57.3%
Q3 - 11:29	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	45 46.2%	43 53.8%
Q3 - 11:32	SAS	MISS Barry 3' Layup	45 45.1%	43 54.9%
Q3 - 11:39	MEM	Jones 3' Driving Layup (7 PTS) (Gasol 2 AST)	45 42.7%	43 57.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS		43 39.5%	43 60.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	43 36.1%	43 63.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM	Gasol Layup (8 PTS)	43 36.1%	43 63.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM	MISS Gasol 1' Layup	41 30.9%	43 69.1%
Q2 - 0:01.0	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	41 32.8%	43 67.2%
Q2 - 0:02.0	MEM	MISS Atkins 4' Jump Shot	41 31.4%	43 68.6%
Q2 - 0:11.0	SAS	Horry Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	41 32.8%	43 67.2%
Q2 - 0:11.0	SAS	MISS Horry Free Throw 1 of 2	41 33.6%	42 66.4%
Q2 - 0:11.0	MEM	Warrick Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9)	41 33.7%	42 66.3%
Q2 - 0:29.0	SAS	Parker 1' Reverse Layup (11 PTS)	41 35.8%	42 64.2%
Q2 - 0:41.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	41 39.8%	40 60.2%
Q2 - 0:44.0	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (1 BLK)	41 40.5%	40 59.5%
Q2 - 1:06	SAS	Duncan 1' Dunk (11 PTS) (Horry 1 AST)	41 41.7%	40 58.3%
Q2 - 1:23	MEM	Atkins 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)	41 46.4%	38 53.6%
Q2 - 1:44	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	38 38.6%	38 61.4%
Q2 - 1:44	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2	38 39.6%	37 60.4%
Q2 - 1:44	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	38 40.1%	37 59.9%
Q2 - 1:44	MEM	MISS Gasol 12' Jump Shot	38 40.6%	37 59.4%
Q2 - 2:00	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	38 41.7%	37 58.3%
Q2 - 2:02	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 1	38 41.7%	37 58.3%
Q2 - 2:17	MEM	Battier Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	38 45.4%	35 54.6%
Q2 - 2:17	MEM	Battier Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	37 44.7%	35 55.3%
Q2 - 2:34	SAS	Bowen 4' Running Finger Roll (2 PTS) (Finley 1 AST)	36 42.1%	35 57.9%
Q2 - 2:51	MEM	Atkins Traveling Turnover (P1.T8)	36 45.5%	33 54.5%
Q2 - 3:04	MEM	Atkins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	36 47.9%	33 52.1%
Q2 - 3:06	SAS	MISS Horry 25' 3PT Jump Shot	36 46.9%	33 53.1%
Q2 - 3:27	MEM	Battier Layup (6 PTS)	36 44.6%	33 55.4%
Q2 - 3:29	SAS	Barry Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T8)	34 42.0%	33 58.0%
Q2 - 3:31	SAS	Barry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	34 38.8%	33 61.2%
Q2 - 3:33	MEM	MISS Gasol 12' Jump Shot	34 39.7%	33 60.3%
Q2 - 3:56	SAS	Parker 2' Layup (9 PTS)	34 42.0%	33 58.0%
Q2 - 4:04	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	34 44.2%	31 55.8%
Q2 - 4:06	MEM	MISS Miller 24' 3PT Jump Bank Shot	34 45.1%	31 54.9%
Q2 - 4:24	SAS	Barry Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T7)	34 47.1%	31 52.9%
Q2 - 4:39	MEM	Grizzlies Turnover: Shot Clock (T#7)	34 44.3%	31 55.7%
Q2 - 5:04	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	34 46.9%	31 53.1%
Q2 - 5:04	SAS	MISS Barry 24' 3PT Jump Shot	34 46.0%	31 54.0%
Q2 - 5:26	MEM	Gasol Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P6.T6)	34 43.9%	31 56.1%
Q2 - 5:37	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	34 46.9%	31 53.1%
Q2 - 5:39	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	34 46.5%	31 53.5%
Q2 - 5:39	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	34 44.9%	31 55.1%
Q2 - 5:52	SAS	Barry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	34 46.7%	30 53.3%
Q2 - 5:54	MEM	MISS Jackson 16' Jump Shot	34 47.6%	30 52.4%
Q2 - 6:07	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	34 49.5%	30 50.5%
Q2 - 6:09	SAS	MISS Nesterovic 17' Jump Shot	34 48.5%	30 51.5%
Q2 - 6:25	MEM	Tsakalidis 3' Layup (9 PTS)	34 46.2%	30 53.8%
Q2 - 6:45	SAS	Van Exel 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	32 44.1%	30 55.9%
Q2 - 6:47	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	32 46.2%	28 53.8%
Q2 - 6:49	SAS	MISS Bowen 20' Jump Shot	32 48.5%	28 51.5%
Q2 - 6:57	SAS	SPURS Rebound	32 46.3%	28 53.7%
Q2 - 6:58	SAS	MISS Van Exel 24' 3PT Jump Shot	32 48.5%	28 51.5%
Q2 - 7:01	SAS	Barry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	32 46.0%	28 54.0%
Q2 - 7:04	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	32 48.0%	28 52.0%
Q2 - 7:18	MEM	Tsakalidis 2' Layup (7 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)	32 46.0%	28 54.0%
Q2 - 7:31	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	30 43.6%	28 56.4%
Q2 - 7:32	SAS	MISS Duncan 1' Layup	30 42.8%	28 57.2%
Q2 - 7:45	MEM	Miller 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	30 40.9%	28 59.1%
Q2 - 8:00	SAS	Van Exel Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	28 38.5%	28 61.5%
Q2 - 8:00	SAS	Van Exel Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	28 39.1%	27 60.9%
Q2 - 8:06	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	28 40.5%	26 59.5%
Q2 - 8:07	MEM	MISS Warrick 11' Jump Shot	28 41.4%	26 58.6%
Q2 - 8:23	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	28 43.4%	26 56.6%
Q2 - 8:23	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	28 44.2%	25 55.8%
Q2 - 8:47	MEM	Wright 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)	28 45.7%	24 54.3%
Q2 - 9:05	SAS	Van Exel 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Barry 1 AST)	26 43.0%	24 57.0%
Q2 - 9:18	MEM	Warrick 1' Reverse Layup (2 PTS)	26 45.2%	22 54.8%
Q2 - 9:28	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	24 43.0%	22 57.0%
Q2 - 9:31	SAS	MISS Horry 3PT Jump Shot	24 42.2%	22 57.8%
Q2 - 9:52	SAS	SPURS Rebound	24 40.3%	22 59.7%
Q2 - 9:53	MEM	MISS Battier 15' Jump Shot	24 41.1%	22 58.9%
Q2 - 10:15	SAS	Horry Backcourt Turnover (P2.T6)	24 42.9%	22 57.1%
Q2 - 10:26	MEM	Miller 1' Layup (2 PTS)	24 40.2%	22 59.8%
Q2 - 10:33	SAS	Horry Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)	22 38.1%	22 61.9%
Q2 - 10:48	SAS	SPURS Rebound	22 35.5%	22 64.5%
Q2 - 10:48	MEM	MISS Miller 17' Jump Shot	22 36.3%	22 63.7%
Q2 - 10:55	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	22 38.1%	22 61.9%
Q2 - 10:58	SAS	MISS Mohammed 2' Layup	22 37.3%	22 62.7%
Q2 - 11:09	SAS	Barry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 35.4%	22 64.6%
Q2 - 11:11	MEM	MISS Jackson 25' 3PT Jump Bank Shot	22 36.1%	22 63.9%
Q2 - 11:35	SAS	Mohammed Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	22 37.7%	22 62.3%
Q2 - 11:35	SAS	Mohammed Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	22 38.2%	21 61.8%
Q2 - 11:37	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	22 40.0%	20 60.0%
Q2 - 11:40	MEM	MISS Jackson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	22 40.7%	20 59.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS		22 42.3%	20 57.7%
Q1 - 0:02.0	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	22 40.0%	20 60.0%
Q1 - 0:04.0	MEM	MISS Gasol 3' Layup	22 40.5%	20 59.5%
Q1 - 0:29.0	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	22 41.7%	20 58.3%
Q1 - 0:32.0	MEM	Horry STEAL (1 STL)	22 47.0%	17 53.0%
Q1 - 0:47.0	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	22 48.8%	17 51.2%
Q1 - 0:47.0	SAS	Horry 1' Follow Up Dunk (4 PTS)	22 48.8%	17 51.2%
Q1 - 0:47.0	SAS	MISS Mohammed 8' Jump Shot	22 53.0%	15 47.0%
Q1 - 1:02	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	22 51.6%	15 48.4%
Q1 - 1:04	MEM	MISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot	22 52.2%	15 47.8%
Q1 - 1:31	SAS	Finley 15' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS)	22 53.5%	15 46.5%
Q1 - 1:54	MEM	Gasol 3' Running Hook Shot (6 PTS)	22 56.3%	13 43.7%
Q1 - 2:17	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	20 53.6%	13 46.4%
Q1 - 2:19	SAS	MISS Parker 5' Jump Shot	20 52.9%	13 47.1%
Q1 - 2:42	MEM	Gasol 2' Layup (4 PTS)	20 51.4%	13 48.6%
Q1 - 3:00	MEM	Jackson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	18 48.9%	13 51.1%
Q1 - 3:02	SAS	MISS Parker 3PT Jump Shot	18 47.6%	13 52.4%
Q1 - 3:17	MEM	Gasol 6' Running Hook Shot (2 PTS)	18 45.9%	13 54.1%
Q1 - 3:32	SAS	Parker Traveling Turnover (P1.T4)	16 44.0%	13 56.0%
Q1 - 3:48	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	16 41.5%	13 58.5%
Q1 - 3:51	MEM	MISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot	16 42.3%	13 57.7%
Q1 - 4:04	MEM	Jones Free Throw Technical (5 PTS)	16 43.7%	13 56.3%
Q1 - 4:17	SAS	Parker 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Bowen 2 AST)	15 41.5%	13 58.5%
Q1 - 4:42	MEM	Jones 5' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Battier 1 AST)	15 43.2%	11 56.8%
Q1 - 4:58	SAS	Horry 13' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)	13 41.5%	11 58.5%
Q1 - 5:12	MEM	Battier Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	13 42.7%	9 57.3%
Q1 - 5:12	MEM	Battier Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	12 42.2%	9 57.8%
Q1 - 5:36	SAS	Duncan 16' Jump Bank Shot (3 PTS)	11 40.9%	9 59.1%
Q1 - 5:47	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	11 42.7%	7 57.3%
Q1 - 5:49	SAS	MISS Mohammed 6' Jump Shot	11 44.3%	7 55.7%
Q1 - 6:16	MEM	Battier 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Gasol 1 AST)	11 42.3%	7 57.7%
Q1 - 6:41	SAS	Parker 1' Layup (2 PTS)	9 40.4%	7 59.6%
Q1 - 6:44	MEM	Parker STEAL (1 STL)	9 42.3%	5 57.7%
Q1 - 6:47	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	9 44.4%	5 55.6%
Q1 - 6:49	MEM	MISS Tsakalidis 14' Jump Shot	9 42.9%	5 57.1%
Q1 - 6:58	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	9 44.4%	5 55.6%
Q1 - 7:01	MEM	MISS Atkins 19' Jump Shot	9 42.2%	5 57.8%
Q1 - 7:10	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	9 43.7%	5 56.3%
Q1 - 7:12	SAS	MISS Duncan 18' Jump Shot	9 43.0%	5 57.0%
Q1 - 7:34	MEM	Gasol Traveling Turnover (P3.T3)	9 41.6%	5 58.4%
Q1 - 7:47	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	9 43.7%	5 56.3%
Q1 - 7:49	SAS	MISS Barry 24' 3PT Jump Shot	9 43.1%	5 56.9%
Q1 - 8:03	MEM	Atkins 23' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	9 41.7%	5 58.3%
Q1 - 8:12	SAS	Mohammed Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3)	7 40.0%	5 60.0%
Q1 - 8:24	MEM	Mohammed STEAL (1 STL)	7 38.0%	5 62.0%
Q1 - 8:43	SAS	Mohammed 1' Layup (4 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	7 40.0%	5 60.0%
Q1 - 8:56	MEM	Tsakalidis Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	7 41.6%	3 58.4%
Q1 - 8:56	MEM	MISS Tsakalidis Free Throw 1 of 2	6 41.1%	3 58.9%
Q1 - 9:16	SAS	Mohammed 1' Dunk (2 PTS)	6 41.8%	3 58.2%
Q1 - 9:18	SAS	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	6 43.1%	1 56.9%
Q1 - 9:20	SAS	MISS Bowen 18' Jump Shot	6 44.8%	1 55.2%
Q1 - 9:41	MEM	Jones 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	6 43.2%	1 56.8%
Q1 - 9:47	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 41.8%	1 58.2%
Q1 - 9:50	SAS	MISS Duncan 5' Jump Shot	4 41.1%	1 58.9%
Q1 - 10:00	MEM	Duncan STEAL (1 STL)	4 39.5%	1 60.5%
Q1 - 10:10	MEM	Atkins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 41.5%	1 58.5%
Q1 - 10:12	SAS	MISS Mohammed 10' Jump Shot	4 40.9%	1 59.1%
Q1 - 10:23	MEM	Tsakalidis 9' Turnaround Hook Shot (4 PTS)	4 39.5%	1 60.5%
Q1 - 10:42	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	2 37.9%	1 62.1%
Q1 - 10:42	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2	2 38.4%	0 61.6%
Q1 - 10:48	MEM	Tsakalidis 2' Tip Shot (2 PTS)	2 37.7%	0 62.3%
Q1 - 10:49	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 36.2%	0 63.8%
Q1 - 11:01	MEM	MISS Battier 4' Jump Shot	0 34.8%	0 65.2%
Q1 - 11:20	SAS	Duncan Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	0 35.9%	0 64.1%
Q1 - 11:30	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 34.4%	0 65.6%
Q1 - 11:32	MEM	MISS Gasol 17' Jump Shot	0 34.8%	0 65.2%
Q1 - 11:46	SAS	Barry Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	0 35.9%	0 64.1%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Mohammed vs. Gasol: Tip to Duncan	0 34.4%	0 65.6%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

0.93 46.6%

SAS

0.98 48.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

58%

SAS

58%

Midrange

MEM

28%

SAS

39%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

3.0

20%

30%

SAS

6.0

27%

40%

Free Throws

MEM

81%

SAS

65%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Tsakalidis	15	75%	7.5 / 10
P. Gasol	14	33%	7.0 / 21
M. Miller	14	64%	7.0 / 11
S. Battier	10	45%	5.0 / 11
E. Jones	9	45%	4.5 / 10
C. Atkins	8	40%	4.0 / 10
B. Jackson	5	36%	2.5 / 7
L. Wright	4	100%	2.0 / 2
H. Warrick	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Duncan	23	61%	11.5 / 19
T. Parker	19	63%	9.5 / 15
M. Finley	11	69%	5.5 / 8
R. Horry	10	56%	5.0 / 9
N. Van Exel	9	56%	4.5 / 8
N. Mohammed	6	33%	3.0 / 9
B. Bowen	5	25%	2.5 / 10
B. Barry	0	-	0.0 / 3
R. Nesterovic	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+13

-12

SAS

+11

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

0.93 46.6%

SAS

0.98 48.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	105.9 107.1	MEM 96.4 SAS 96.5 +0.1
Pace	86.4 88.8	MEM 77.3 SAS 94.1 +16.8
Avg. Poss. Time	17.3 16.9	MEM 18.6 SAS 15.3 +3.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	49.6% 51.3%	MEM 42.7% SAS 47.3% +4.6%
TO %	14.8% 14.8%	MEM 14.3% SAS 13.6% +0.7%
ORB %	25.8% 26.1%	MEM 27.9% +4.1% SAS 23.8%
FTrt	33.9 29.8	MEM 28.0 +1.0 SAS 27.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	57.8% 57.4%	MEM 29.0% SAS 57.6% +28.6%
STL %	8.4% 7.4%	MEM 8.3% +1.3% SAS 7.0%
BLK %	8.9% 8.4%	MEM 10.2% +4.0% SAS 6.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	51.9% 53.1%	MEM 46.6% SAS 48.8% +2.2%
Rim FG%	57.0% 61.7%	MEM 58.3% +0.2% SAS 58.1%
Mid FG%	37.2% 39.0%	MEM 27.6% SAS 39.3% +11.7%
3P %	37.4% 38.5%	MEM 20.0% SAS 26.7% +6.7%
FT %	71.1% 70.2%	MEM 81.0% +16.0% SAS 65.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	38.4% 36.7%	MEM 48.0% +6.1% SAS 41.9%
Mid Att. %	35.9% 41.8%	MEM 38.7% SAS 37.8% +0.8%
3P Att. %	25.8% 21.5%	MEM 13.3% SAS 20.3% +6.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MEM	SAS
Possessions	84	86
Possession Minutes	26.1	21.9
Points	81	83
Rebounds	44	41
Assists	9	19
Steals	7	6
Blocks	6	4
Turnovers (Team)	12 (2)	13 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (1)	10 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	32 (2)	31 (2)
Field Goals	31-75	33-74
At-the-Rim FG	21-36	18-31
Midrange FG	8-29	11-28
2-Point FG	29-65	29-59
3-Point FG	2-10	4-15
Free Throws	17-21	13-20
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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6 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shane Battier F · 6'8" 220 · 28	39.1	10	45%	12	1	3	3	0	0	3	9	4-4	100%	3-9	33%	0-0	-
Pau Gasol F · 7'0" 250 · 26	37.6	14	33%	5	3	1	1	8	3	4	1	4-4	100%	5-19	26%	0-0	-
Eddie Jones G · 6'6" 200 · 34	37.2	9	45%	8	2	1	0	0	1	1	7	3-3	100%	3-7	43%	0-2	0%
Chucky Atkins G · 5'11" 185 · 32	31.2	8	40%	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	3	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	1-2	50%
Jake Tsakalidis C · 7'2" 290 · 27	26.3	15	75%	7	0	0	1	1	3	4	3	3-5	60%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Mike Miller G-F · 6'8" 218 · 26	26.0	14	64%	3	3	1	0	1	1	0	3	1-2	50%	5-7	71%	1-3	33%
Bobby Jackson G · 6'1" 185 · 33	22.6	5	36%	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	0-3	0%
Lorenzen Wright F-C · 6'11" 255 · 30	14.4	4	100%	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Hakim Warrick F · 6'9" 219 · 24	5.5	2	50%	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Dahntay Jones G-F · 6'6" 225 · 25
Brian Cardinal F · 6'8" 240 · 29
Antonio Burks G · 6'0" 195 · 26
Damon Stoudamire #20 · G · 5'10" 171 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Lawrence Roberts #44 · F · 6'9" 240 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Anthony Roberson #3 · G · 6'2" 180 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	81	47%	44	9	7	6	12	0	12	32	17-21	81%	29-65	45%	2-10	20%

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6 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shane Battier F · 6'8" 220 · 28	39.1	10	45%	12	1	3	3	0	0	3	9	4-4	100%	3-9	33%	0-0	-
Pau Gasol F · 7'0" 250 · 26	37.6	14	33%	5	3	1	1	8	3	4	1	4-4	100%	5-19	26%	0-0	-
Eddie Jones G · 6'6" 200 · 34	37.2	9	45%	8	2	1	0	0	1	1	7	3-3	100%	3-7	43%	0-2	0%
Chucky Atkins G · 5'11" 185 · 32	31.2	8	40%	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	3	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	1-2	50%
Jake Tsakalidis C · 7'2" 290 · 27	26.3	15	75%	7	0	0	1	1	3	4	3	3-5	60%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Mike Miller G-F · 6'8" 218 · 26	26.0	14	64%	3	3	1	0	1	1	0	3	1-2	50%	5-7	71%	1-3	33%
Bobby Jackson G · 6'1" 185 · 33	22.6	5	36%	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	0-3	0%
Lorenzen Wright F-C · 6'11" 255 · 30	14.4	4	100%	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Hakim Warrick F · 6'9" 219 · 24	5.5	2	50%	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Dahntay Jones G-F · 6'6" 225 · 25
Brian Cardinal F · 6'8" 240 · 29
Antonio Burks G · 6'0" 195 · 26
Damon Stoudamire #20 · G · 5'10" 171 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Lawrence Roberts #44 · F · 6'9" 240 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Anthony Roberson #3 · G · 6'2" 180 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	81	47%	44	9	7	6	12	0	12	32	17-21	81%	29-65	45%	2-10	20%

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5 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 24	38.9	19	63%	4	3	1	0	2	1	2	2	1-1	100%	9-14	64%	0-1	0%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 30	38.1	23	61%	12	5	2	3	4	3	3	9	7-12	58%	8-14	57%	0-0	-
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 35	36.0	5	25%	3	3	0	1	0	3	0	3	0-0	-	1-6	17%	1-4	25%
Brent Barry G · 6'7" 210 · 34	30.2	0	0%	6	2	0	0	3	2	1	5	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 29	23.3	6	33%	5	0	1	0	2	2	1	4	2-2	100%	2-8	25%	0-0	-
Michael Finley G-F · 6'7" 225 · 33	31.0	11	69%	3	2	0	0	0	3	0	3	0-1	0%	4-7	57%	1-1	100%
Robert Horry F-C · 6'10" 240 · 36	21.0	10	56%	5	1	2	0	2	2	3	2	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	1-3	33%
Nick Van Exel G · 6'1" 190 · 34	17.5	9	56%	3	3	0	0	0	3	0	3	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	1-4	25%
Rasho Nesterovic C · 7'0" 255 · 30	4.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 31
Beno Udrih G · 6'3" 205 · 24
Melvin Sanders G-F · 6'5" 210 · 25
Manu Ginobili #20 · G · 6'6" 205 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Sean Marks #40 · F-C · 6'10" 250 · 31	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	83	49%	41	19	6	4	13	0	10	31	13-20	65%	29-59	49%	4-15	27%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE