Final Win Prob. pScore
432%88
92
268%93
86
ORTG#PossPace
DAL logo Mavericks
110.88383.3
SAS logo Spurs
102.48483.7

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

SpursMavericksQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

SpursMavericksQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventDALSAS
Q4 - 0:00.0DAL92
100%
86
0%
Q4 - 0:01.0DALArmstrong REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)92
99.9%
86
0.1%
Q4 - 0:03.0SASMISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot92
99.9%
86
0.1%
Q4 - 0:05.0DALSUB: Armstrong FOR Howard92
86
Q4 - 0:05.0SASSUB: Duncan FOR Bowen92
86
Q4 - 0:05.0SASSPURS Timeout: Regular (Full 6 Short 0)92
86
Q4 - 0:05.0DALStackhouse Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)92
99.9%
86
0.1%
Q4 - 0:05.0DALStackhouse Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)91
99.9%
86
0.1%
Q4 - 0:05.0SASBarry P.FOUL (P3.PN)90
86
Q4 - 0:06.0SASSUB: Barry FOR Duncan90
86
Q4 - 0:06.0DALSUB: Daniels FOR Diop90
86
Q4 - 0:06.0DALMavericks Timeout: Regular (Reg.5 Short 1)90
86
Q4 - 0:06.0DALMavericks Rebound90
99.7%
86
0.3%
Q4 - 0:07.0SASMISS Bowen 24' 3PT Jump Shot90
99.4%
86
0.6%
Q4 - 0:15.0SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)90
97.1%
86
2.9%
Q4 - 0:17.0DALMISS Nowitzki 10' Jump Shot90
98.1%
86
1.9%
Q4 - 0:40.0SASDuncan Traveling Turnover (P2.T12)90
96.2%
86
3.8%
Q4 - 0:49.0DALDiop Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)90
90.5%
86
9.5%
Q4 - 0:49.0DALMavericks Rebound89
86
Q4 - 0:49.0DALMISS Diop Free Throw 1 of 289
87.7%
86
12.3%
Q4 - 0:49.0SASParker P.FOUL (P2.PN)89
86
Q4 - 1:04DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:10)89
88.4%
86
11.6%
Q4 - 1:05SASMISS Ginobili 4' Driving Layup89
86.0%
86
14.0%
Q4 - 1:20DALBowen STEAL (2 STL)89
86
Q4 - 1:20SASJump Ball Bowen vs. Terry: Tip to Ginobili89
77.5%
86
22.5%
Q4 - 1:20DALTerry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)89
86.6%
86
13.4%
Q4 - 1:22DALGinobili BLOCK (1 BLK)89
80.5%
86
19.5%
Q4 - 1:42SASParker 15' Jump Shot (10 PTS)89
83.3%
86
16.7%
Q4 - 1:49SASSUB: Bowen FOR Oberto89
84
Q4 - 1:49SASSPURS Timeout: Regular (Full 5 Short 0)89
84
Q4 - 1:49DALNowitzki 11' Jump Shot (30 PTS)89
87.6%
84
12.4%
Q4 - 2:05SASGinobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS)87
83.8%
84
16.2%
Q4 - 2:05DALSUB: Diop FOR Dampier87
83
Q4 - 2:05SASGinobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)87
84.9%
83
15.1%
Q4 - 2:05DALDampier P.FOUL (P5.PN)87
82
Q4 - 2:23DALNowitzki 11' Jump Shot (28 PTS)87
88.0%
82
12.0%
Q4 - 2:43SASDuncan 6' Jump Bank Shot (13 PTS)85
84.6%
82
15.4%
Q4 - 3:02SASGinobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)85
85.6%
80
14.4%
Q4 - 3:03DALMISS Nowitzki Free Throw 2 of 285
86.6%
80
13.4%
Q4 - 3:03DALNowitzki Free Throw 1 of 2 (26 PTS)85
90.0%
80
10.0%
Q4 - 3:03SASDuncan S.FOUL (P3.PN)84
80
Q4 - 3:19SASGinobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)84
87.3%
80
12.7%
Q4 - 3:19SASGinobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)84
88.2%
79
11.8%
Q4 - 3:19DALHoward S.FOUL (P4.T4)84
78
Q4 - 3:28DALDampier Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)84
90.6%
78
9.4%
Q4 - 3:28SASSPURS Timeout: Regular (Full 4 Short 0)83
78
Q4 - 3:28DALDampier Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)83
89.3%
78
10.7%
Q4 - 3:28SASOberto S.FOUL (P3.T4)82
78
Q4 - 3:46DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:9)82
81.2%
78
18.8%
Q4 - 3:48SASMISS Parker 21' Jump Shot82
79.3%
78
20.7%
Q4 - 4:07SASOberto REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)82
74.6%
78
25.4%
Q4 - 4:08DALMISS Terry 13' Jump Shot82
76.9%
78
23.1%
Q4 - 4:20SASSUB: Finley FOR Bowen82
78
Q4 - 4:20SASParker Foul Turnover (P5.T11)82
81.8%
78
18.2%
Q4 - 4:20SASParker OFF.Foul (P1)82
78
Q4 - 4:25SASParker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)82
74.8%
78
25.2%
Q4 - 4:27DALMISS Nowitzki 26' 3PT Jump Shot82
77.1%
78
22.9%
Q4 - 4:47SASOberto Traveling Turnover (P2.T10)82
82.0%
78
18.0%
Q4 - 5:03SASOberto REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)82
70.5%
78
29.5%
Q4 - 5:05DALMISS Nowitzki 12' Fadeaway Jumper82
72.7%
78
27.3%
Q4 - 5:28SASDuncan 17' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)82
77.5%
78
22.5%
Q4 - 5:38SASJump Ball Duncan vs. Howard: Tip to Parker82
76
Q4 - 5:53DALNowitzki Free Throw 2 of 2 (25 PTS)82
82.8%
76
17.2%
Q4 - 5:53DALNowitzki Free Throw 1 of 2 (24 PTS)81
82.2%
76
17.8%
Q4 - 5:5380
76
Q4 - 5:53SASDuncan S.FOUL (P2.T3)80
76
Q4 - 6:14SASGinobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Duncan 3 AST)80
73.7%
76
26.3%
Q4 - 6:18SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)80
83.6%
73
16.4%
Q4 - 6:20SASMISS Parker 19' Jump Shot80
86.4%
73
13.6%
Q4 - 6:33DALHoward P.FOUL (P3.T3)80
73
Q4 - 6:33SASSPURS Rebound80
83.7%
73
16.3%
Q4 - 6:33SASMISS Ginobili 2' Layup80
86.4%
73
13.6%
Q4 - 6:38SASSUB: Bowen FOR Finley80
73
Q4 - 6:38DALDampier P.FOUL (P4.T2)80
73
Q4 - 6:57DALDampier 2' Layup (3 PTS) (Nowitzki 2 AST)80
83.8%
73
16.2%
Q4 - 7:04DALSUB: Howard FOR Powell78
73
Q4 - 7:04SASSUB: Ginobili FOR Barry78
73
Q4 - 7:04SASSUB: Parker FOR Van Exel78
73
Q4 - 7:04DALMavericks Timeout: Regular (Reg.4 Short 1)78
73
Q4 - 7:05DALDampier REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)78
76.2%
73
23.8%
Q4 - 7:07DALMISS Terry 21' Jump Shot78
72.2%
73
27.8%
Q4 - 7:21DALTerry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)78
76.3%
73
23.7%
Q4 - 7:23SASMISS Duncan 14' Jump Bank Shot78
74.6%
73
25.4%
Q4 - 7:45DALPowell 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Nowitzki 1 AST)78
70.6%
73
29.4%
Q4 - 8:05SASFinley 24' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)76
62.2%
73
37.8%
Q4 - 8:27DALStackhouse 24' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Terry 4 AST)76
73.8%
70
26.2%
Q4 - 8:49SASVan Exel 25' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Oberto 2 AST)73
62.4%
70
37.6%
Q4 - 9:02SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)73
71.4%
67
28.6%
Q4 - 9:04DALMISS Dampier 3' Turnaround Hook Shot73
72.8%
67
27.2%
Q4 - 9:25DALSUB: Stackhouse FOR Daniels73
67
Q4 - 9:25SASOberto P.FOUL (P2.T2)73
67
Q4 - 9:25DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)73
76.0%
67
24.0%
Q4 - 9:26SASMISS Finley 18' Jump Shot73
74.7%
67
25.3%
Q4 - 9:47SASSPURS Rebound73
71.6%
67
28.4%
Q4 - 9:47DALOberto BLOCK (1 BLK)73
73.0%
67
27.0%
Q4 - 10:07SASOberto P.FOUL (P1.T1)73
67
Q4 - 10:07DALDaniels REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)73
73.7%
67
26.3%
Q4 - 10:08SASMISS Van Exel 9' Running Hook Shot73
72.4%
67
27.6%
Q4 - 10:25DALSUB: Nowitzki FOR Howard73
67
Q4 - 10:25DALHoward P.FOUL (P2.T1)73
67
Q4 - 10:26SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)73
69.3%
67
30.7%
Q4 - 10:28SASMISS Finley 7' Jump Shot73
72.5%
67
27.5%
Q4 - 10:37SASBarry REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)73
69.4%
67
30.6%
Q4 - 10:38DALMISS Dampier 6' Jump Shot73
70.8%
67
29.2%
Q4 - 10:56DALMavericks Rebound73
73.9%
67
26.1%
Q4 - 10:57SASMISS Duncan 4' Hook Shot73
72.6%
67
27.4%
Q4 - 11:22DALPowell 1' Dunk (2 PTS) (Dampier 1 AST)73
67.5%
67
32.5%
Q4 - 11:44SASDuncan 6' Jump Bank Shot (9 PTS)71
62.4%
67
37.6%
Q4 - 12:0071
65
Q3 - 0:00.0SAS71
67.6%
65
32.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0SASSPURS Rebound71
67.6%
65
32.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0SASMISS Ginobili 29' 3PT Running Jump Shot71
70.6%
65
29.4%
Q3 - 0:02.0DALBowen STEAL (1 STL)71
65.9%
65
34.1%
Q3 - 0:24.0SASMohammed Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9)71
69.9%
65
30.1%
Q3 - 0:25.0SASMohammed REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)71
66.0%
65
34.0%
Q3 - 0:27.0SASMISS Ginobili 1' Layup71
68.8%
65
31.2%
Q3 - 0:37.0DALSUB: Powell FOR Nowitzki71
65
Q3 - 0:37.0DALSUB: Howard FOR Stackhouse71
65
Q3 - 0:37.0DALStackhouse Foul Turnover (P3.T7)71
66.0%
65
34.0%
Q3 - 0:37.0DALStackhouse OFF.Foul (P1)71
65
Q3 - 0:51.0DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)71
70.0%
65
30.0%
Q3 - 0:54.0SASMISS Van Exel 10' Running Jump Shot71
68.8%
65
31.2%
Q3 - 1:12DALDaniels 4' Jump Bank Shot (2 PTS)71
64.5%
65
35.5%
Q3 - 1:32SASVan Exel Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)69
59.5%
65
40.5%
Q3 - 1:49SASBowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)69
55.2%
65
44.8%
Q3 - 1:51SASMISS Mohammed Free Throw 2 of 269
59.0%
65
41.0%
Q3 - 1:51SASSPURS Rebound69
65
Q3 - 1:51SASMISS Mohammed Free Throw 1 of 269
56.0%
65
44.0%
Q3 - 1:51DALMavericks Timeout: Regular (Reg.3 Short 1)69
65
Q3 - 1:51DALDampier S.FOUL (P3.T4)69
65
Q3 - 2:08DALNowitzki 12' Fadeaway Jumper (23 PTS)69
53.4%
65
46.6%
Q3 - 2:26SASVan Exel 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Ginobili 4 AST)67
48.8%
65
51.2%
Q3 - 2:51DALNowitzki 16' Jump Shot (21 PTS)67
58.2%
62
41.8%
Q3 - 3:02SASSUB: Ginobili FOR Oberto65
62
Q3 - 3:02DALMavericks Rebound65
52.2%
62
47.8%
Q3 - 3:05SASMISS Mohammed 2' Layup65
50.8%
62
49.2%
Q3 - 3:20DALStackhouse Discontinue Dribble Turnover (P2.T6)65
47.5%
62
52.5%
Q3 - 3:31SASMohammed Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)65
52.3%
62
47.7%
Q3 - 3:31DALSUB: Dampier FOR Diop65
61
Q3 - 3:31SASSPURS Rebound65
61
Q3 - 3:31SASMISS Mohammed Free Throw 1 of 265
53.4%
61
46.6%
Q3 - 3:31SASSUB: Van Exel FOR Parker65
61
Q3 - 3:31DALDiop S.FOUL (P4.T3)65
61
Q3 - 3:43DALSUB: Armstrong FOR Terry65
61
Q3 - 3:43SASSUB: Mohammed FOR Duncan65
61
Q3 - 3:43SASSPURS Rebound65
52.0%
61
48.0%
Q3 - 3:45SASMISS Parker 20' Jump Shot65
55.3%
61
44.7%
Q3 - 3:51DALDaniels P.FOUL (P4.T2)65
61
Q3 - 4:13DALTerry Layup (14 PTS)65
51.0%
61
49.0%
Q3 - 4:16DALTerry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)63
47.4%
61
52.6%
Q3 - 4:19SASMISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot63
45.8%
61
54.2%
Q3 - 4:33SASFinley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)63
42.3%
61
57.7%
Q3 - 4:35DALMISS Terry 24' 3PT Jump Shot63
43.9%
61
56.1%
Q3 - 4:51SASParker Traveling Turnover (P4.T7)63
47.4%
61
52.6%
Q3 - 5:04SASSUB: Oberto FOR Barry63
61
Q3 - 5:04DALTerry Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5)63
41.4%
61
58.6%
Q3 - 5:29SASParker 1' Layup (8 PTS) (Finley 2 AST)63
46.1%
61
53.9%
Q3 - 5:34SASFinley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)63
49.8%
59
50.2%
Q3 - 5:36DALMISS Nowitzki 15' Jump Shot63
51.2%
59
48.8%
Q3 - 5:49DALStackhouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)63
54.6%
59
45.4%
Q3 - 5:51SASMISS Parker 20' Jump Shot63
53.1%
59
46.9%
Q3 - 6:08SASSUB: Barry FOR Ginobili63
59
Q3 - 6:08DALSUB: Daniels FOR Howard63
59
Q3 - 6:08SASSPURS Timeout: Regular (Full 3 Short 0)63
59
Q3 - 6:11DALNowitzki 13' Jump Shot (19 PTS)63
48.9%
59
51.1%
Q3 - 6:27DALHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:9)61
45.2%
59
54.8%
Q3 - 6:30SASMISS Duncan 1' Layup61
43.9%
59
56.1%
Q3 - 6:41DALHoward Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)61
40.9%
59
59.1%
Q3 - 7:02DALHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)61
44.0%
59
56.0%
Q3 - 7:04SASMISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot61
42.8%
59
57.2%
Q3 - 7:12SASParker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)61
40.1%
59
59.9%
Q3 - 7:14DALMISS Howard 16' Jump Shot61
41.3%
59
58.7%
Q3 - 7:31SASParker 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS)61
44.1%
59
55.9%
Q3 - 7:54DALHoward 16' Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Terry 3 AST)61
47.8%
57
52.2%
Q3 - 8:15DALHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)59
43.6%
57
56.4%
Q3 - 8:16SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 259
43.1%
57
56.9%
Q3 - 8:16SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)59
41.0%
57
59.0%
Q3 - 8:16DALDiop S.FOUL (P3.T1)59
56
Q3 - 8:29SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)59
43.3%
56
56.7%
Q3 - 8:31DALMISS Stackhouse 19' Jump Shot59
44.5%
56
55.5%
Q3 - 8:47DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)59
47.3%
56
52.7%
Q3 - 8:49SASMISS Finley 15' Fadeaway Jumper59
46.1%
56
53.9%
Q3 - 9:12SASSPURS Rebound59
43.0%
56
57.0%
Q3 - 9:12DALDuncan BLOCK (2 BLK)59
44.1%
56
55.9%
Q3 - 9:27DALHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)59
46.7%
56
53.3%
Q3 - 9:29SASMISS Ginobili 16' Jump Bank Shot59
45.6%
56
54.4%
Q3 - 9:36SASFinley Free Throw Technical (11 PTS)59
43.0%
56
57.0%
Q3 - 9:36DALMavericks T.Foul (Def. 3 Sec Terry )59
55
Q3 - 9:53DALNowitzki Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)59
46.6%
55
53.4%
Q3 - 9:53SASSUB: Finley FOR Mohammed58
55
Q3 - 9:53DALNowitzki Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)58
46.2%
55
53.8%
Q3 - 9:53SASMohammed S.FOUL (P3.T1)57
55
Q3 - 10:05DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)57
42.3%
55
57.7%
Q3 - 10:08SASMISS Ginobili 14' Jump Shot57
41.2%
55
58.8%
Q3 - 10:28DALStackhouse 21' Jump Shot (7 PTS)57
38.9%
55
61.1%
Q3 - 10:43SASGinobili 17' Jump Shot (15 PTS)55
35.6%
55
64.4%
Q3 - 10:58DALNowitzki 16' Jump Shot (15 PTS)55
38.9%
53
61.1%
Q3 - 11:20DALHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)53
35.3%
53
64.7%
Q3 - 11:23SASMISS Duncan 16' Jump Shot53
34.3%
53
65.7%
Q3 - 11:41DALNowitzki 13' Jump Shot (13 PTS)53
32.0%
53
68.0%
Q3 - 12:0051
53
Q2 - 0:00.0DAL51
29.3%
53
70.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0DALMavericks Rebound51
29.3%
53
70.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0DALMISS Nowitzki 40' 3PT Jump Shot51
27.2%
53
72.8%
Q2 - 0:02.0SASFinley 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Ginobili 3 AST)51
28.8%
53
71.2%
Q2 - 0:20.0DALNowitzki 12' Turnaround Jump Shot (11 PTS)51
35.4%
50
64.6%
Q2 - 0:35.0SASGinobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)49
31.7%
50
68.3%
Q2 - 0:35.0SASGinobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)49
32.3%
49
67.7%
Q2 - 0:35.0SASFinley Free Throw Technical (7 PTS)49
35.4%
48
64.6%
Q2 - 0:35.049
47
Q2 - 0:35.0SASFinley Free Throw Technical (6 PTS)49
38.5%
47
61.5%
Q2 - 0:35.0DALHoward T.FOUL (P1.PN)49
46
Q2 - 0:35.0DALHoward S.FOUL (P1.PN)49
46
Q2 - 0:40.0DALDampier Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)49
41.8%
46
58.2%
Q2 - 0:40.0SASSUB: Finley FOR Oberto48
46
Q2 - 0:40.0DALMavericks Rebound48
46
Q2 - 0:40.0DALMISS Dampier Free Throw 1 of 248
40.6%
46
59.4%
Q2 - 0:40.0DALNowitzki Free Throw Technical (9 PTS)48
41.0%
46
59.0%
Q2 - 0:40.047
46
Q2 - 0:40.0SASDuncan S.FOUL (P1.T4)47
46
Q2 - 0:59.0DALHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)47
37.8%
46
62.2%
Q2 - 1:02SASMISS Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot47
36.8%
46
63.2%
Q2 - 1:14DALNowitzki Free Throw Technical (8 PTS)47
35.2%
46
64.8%
Q2 - 1:14SASGinobili T.FOUL (P1.T3)46
46
Q2 - 1:16DALTerry 1' Dunk (12 PTS)46
32.3%
46
67.7%
Q2 - 1:32SASGinobili 1' Layup (11 PTS)44
28.8%
46
71.2%
Q2 - 1:45SASParker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)44
32.3%
44
67.7%
Q2 - 1:47DALDampier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)44
34.4%
44
65.6%
Q2 - 1:47DALMISS Dampier 2' Tip Shot44
33.0%
44
67.0%
Q2 - 1:49DALMISS Nowitzki 19' Jump Shot44
33.0%
44
67.0%
Q2 - 2:07SASGinobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)44
34.4%
44
65.6%
Q2 - 2:07DALSUB: Dampier FOR Diop44
43
Q2 - 2:07SASSPURS Rebound44
43
Q2 - 2:07SASMISS Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 244
34.9%
43
65.1%
Q2 - 2:07DALDiop S.FOUL (P2.T4)44
43
Q2 - 2:22DALHoward 3' Layup (20 PTS)44
34.3%
43
65.7%
Q2 - 2:43DALHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)42
31.6%
43
68.4%
Q2 - 2:45SASMISS Parker 16' Jump Shot42
30.7%
43
69.3%
Q2 - 2:58DALNowitzki 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Powell 1 AST)42
28.9%
43
71.1%
Q2 - 3:06DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)39
24.0%
43
76.0%
Q2 - 3:08SASMISS Oberto 2' Layup39
23.2%
43
76.8%
Q2 - 3:17DALHoward Free Throw 1 of 1 (18 PTS)39
21.5%
43
78.5%
Q2 - 3:17SASSUB: Duncan FOR Barry38
43
Q2 - 3:17SASSUB: Oberto FOR Mohammed38
43
Q2 - 3:17SASSPURS Timeout: Regular (Full 2 Short 0)38
43
Q2 - 3:17DALSUB: Powell FOR Stackhouse38
43
Q2 - 3:17SASBarry S.FOUL (P2.T3)38
43
Q2 - 3:17DALHoward 6' Running Jump Shot (17 PTS)38
43
Q2 - 3:23DALHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)36
17.9%
43
82.1%
Q2 - 3:25SASMISS Ginobili 27' 3PT Jump Shot36
17.2%
43
82.8%
Q2 - 3:28SASBarry REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)36
15.8%
43
84.2%
Q2 - 3:31SASMISS Mohammed 2' Layup36
17.2%
43
82.8%
Q2 - 3:51DALTerry 10' Jump Shot (10 PTS)36
15.8%
43
84.2%
Q2 - 4:12SASGinobili 2' Layup (8 PTS)34
14.5%
43
85.5%
Q2 - 4:24DALStackhouse Traveling Turnover (P1.T3)34
16.0%
41
84.0%
Q2 - 4:40SASParker Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T6)34
17.8%
41
82.2%
Q2 - 4:45SASBarry REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)34
16.0%
41
84.0%
Q2 - 4:46DALMISS Howard Free Throw 2 of 234
16.2%
41
83.8%
Q2 - 4:46DALMavericks Rebound34
41
Q2 - 4:46DALMISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 234
17.3%
41
82.7%
Q2 - 4:46SASMohammed S.FOUL (P2.T2)34
41
Q2 - 4:56SASParker Traveling Turnover (P2.T5)34
17.8%
41
82.2%
Q2 - 5:10DALTerry 15' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Stackhouse 2 AST)34
16.4%
41
83.6%
Q2 - 5:19SASSUB: Mohammed FOR Duncan32
41
Q2 - 5:32DALDiop REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)32
14.7%
41
85.3%
Q2 - 5:33SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 232
14.6%
41
85.4%
Q2 - 5:33SASSPURS Rebound32
41
Q2 - 5:33SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 232
13.7%
41
86.3%
Q2 - 5:33SASSUB: Barry FOR Finley32
41
Q2 - 5:3332
41
Q2 - 5:33DALNowitzki S.FOUL (P1.T3)32
41
Q2 - 5:54DALTerry 2' Layup (6 PTS)32
13.3%
41
86.7%
Q2 - 6:09SASDuncan 6' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)30
12.5%
41
87.5%
Q2 - 6:24DALSUB: Diop FOR Dampier30
39
Q2 - 6:24DALDampier L.B.FOUL (P2.T2)30
39
Q2 - 6:24SASSPURS Rebound30
13.5%
39
86.5%
Q2 - 6:24DALMISS Stackhouse 13' Jump Shot30
14.0%
39
86.0%
Q2 - 6:39SASSUB: Parker FOR Van Exel30
39
Q2 - 6:39DALSUB: Howard FOR Armstrong30
39
Q2 - 6:39DALMavericks Timeout: Short (Reg.2 Short 1)30
39
Q2 - 6:46SASVan Exel 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)30
15.2%
39
84.8%
Q2 - 6:53SASBowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)30
18.1%
36
81.9%
Q2 - 6:55DALMISS Nowitzki 14' Jump Shot30
18.7%
36
81.3%
Q2 - 7:06DALDampier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)30
20.0%
36
80.0%
Q2 - 7:08SASMISS Van Exel 7' Jump Shot30
19.5%
36
80.5%
Q2 - 7:21DALTerry 8' Jump Shot (4 PTS)30
18.2%
36
81.8%
Q2 - 7:44SASFinley 1' Reverse Layup (5 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)28
16.7%
36
83.3%
Q2 - 7:49SASFinley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)28
18.2%
34
81.8%
Q2 - 7:51DALMISS Stackhouse 3PT Jump Shot28
18.8%
34
81.2%
Q2 - 7:59DALTerry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)28
20.1%
34
79.9%
Q2 - 8:00SASMISS Duncan 14' Jump Shot28
19.5%
34
80.5%
Q2 - 8:12SASBowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)28
18.5%
34
81.5%
Q2 - 8:14DALMISS Dampier 11' Jump Shot28
19.0%
34
81.0%
Q2 - 8:27SASVan Exel P.FOUL (P1.T1)28
34
Q2 - 8:43SASBowen 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)28
20.2%
34
79.8%
Q2 - 9:04SASSPURS Rebound28
21.9%
32
78.1%
Q2 - 9:04DALDuncan BLOCK (1 BLK)28
22.5%
32
77.5%
Q2 - 9:17SASSUB: Bowen FOR Oberto28
32
Q2 - 9:17SASSUB: Ginobili FOR Barry28
32
Q2 - 9:17DALMavericks Timeout: Regular (Reg.2 Short 0)28
32
Q2 - 9:24SASDuncan 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Finley 1 AST)28
23.9%
32
76.1%
Q2 - 9:39SASOberto REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)28
25.9%
30
74.1%
Q2 - 9:41DALMISS Stackhouse 11' Jump Shot28
26.5%
30
73.5%
Q2 - 10:00SASVan Exel 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Oberto 1 AST)28
28.0%
30
72.0%
Q2 - 10:02SASOberto REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1)28
32.4%
27
67.6%
Q2 - 10:05SASMISS Duncan 18' Jump Shot28
34.1%
27
65.9%
Q2 - 10:21DALSUB: Stackhouse FOR Daniels28
27
Q2 - 10:21DALDaniels Foul Turnover (P2.T2)28
32.4%
27
67.6%
Q2 - 10:21DALDaniels OFF.Foul (P3)28
27
Q2 - 10:24SASOberto Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)28
34.8%
27
65.2%
Q2 - 10:38DALNowitzki 14' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Terry 2 AST)28
32.4%
27
67.6%
Q2 - 10:46DALDampier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)26
30.2%
27
69.8%
Q2 - 10:48SASMISS Barry 24' 3PT Jump Shot26
29.5%
27
70.5%
Q2 - 10:56DALArmstrong P.FOUL (P1.T1)26
27
Q2 - 11:00SASBarry REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)26
28.0%
27
72.0%
Q2 - 11:02SASMISS Finley 23' Jump Shot26
29.6%
27
70.4%
Q2 - 11:08SASSPURS Rebound26
28.1%
27
71.9%
Q2 - 11:10SASMISS Duncan 1' Layup26
29.6%
27
70.4%
Q2 - 11:16SASOberto REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)26
28.1%
27
71.9%
Q2 - 11:18SASMISS Finley 21' Jump Shot26
29.6%
27
70.4%
Q2 - 11:39DALDaniels Foul Turnover (P1.T1)26
28.1%
27
71.9%
Q2 - 11:39DALDaniels OFF.Foul (P2)26
27
Q2 - 12:0026
27
Q1 - 0:00.0DAL26
30.2%
27
69.8%
Q1 - 0:00.0SASFinley 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Barry 1 AST)26
30.2%
27
69.8%
Q1 - 0:03.0SASSUB: Parker FOR Van Exel26
24
Q1 - 0:03.0DALSUB: Armstrong FOR Stackhouse26
24
Q1 - 0:03.0DALDaniels P.FOUL (P1.T4)26
24
Q1 - 0:09.0DALHoward 25' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Daniels 2 AST)26
34.4%
24
65.6%
Q1 - 0:29.0SASVan Exel 11' Jump Shot (2 PTS)23
29.7%
24
70.3%
Q1 - 0:38.0SASOberto REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)23
32.3%
22
67.7%
Q1 - 0:40.0DALMISS Powell 17' Jump Shot23
32.8%
22
67.2%
Q1 - 0:55.0SASOberto REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)23
34.0%
22
66.0%
Q1 - 0:55.0SASOberto 1' Layup (2 PTS)23
34.0%
22
66.0%
Q1 - 0:57.0SASMISS Nesterovic 18' Jump Shot23
38.0%
20
62.0%
Q1 - 1:15DALHoward 12' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Daniels 1 AST)23
36.4%
20
63.6%
Q1 - 1:24SASBarry P.FOUL (P1.T4)21
20
Q1 - 1:36SASBarry 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Van Exel 2 AST)21
33.6%
20
66.4%
Q1 - 1:43DALHoward 2' Layup (10 PTS)21
38.7%
17
61.3%
Q1 - 2:04SASNesterovic 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Van Exel 1 AST)19
35.7%
17
64.3%
Q1 - 2:18SASOberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)19
38.3%
15
61.7%
Q1 - 2:20SASMISS Finley 8' Jump Hook Shot19
39.5%
15
60.5%
Q1 - 2:29SASSUB: Van Exel FOR Parker19
15
Q1 - 2:29DALMavericks Timeout: Regular (Reg.1 Short 0)19
15
Q1 - 2:29SASSPURS Rebound19
38.3%
15
61.7%
Q1 - 2:30SASMISS Parker 19' Jump Shot19
39.5%
15
60.5%
Q1 - 2:50DALHoward 6' Running Jump Shot (8 PTS)19
38.3%
15
61.7%
Q1 - 3:00DALStackhouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)17
35.7%
15
64.3%
Q1 - 3:02SASMISS Barry 5' Jump Shot17
35.1%
15
64.9%
Q1 - 3:09DALSUB: Daniels FOR Terry17
15
Q1 - 3:09DALDampier P.FOUL (P1.T3)17
15
Q1 - 3:13SASParker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)17
33.6%
15
66.4%
Q1 - 3:15SASMISS Parker 2' Layup17
35.1%
15
64.9%
Q1 - 3:22SASBarry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)17
33.6%
15
66.4%
Q1 - 3:24SASMISS Oberto 15' Jump Shot17
35.1%
15
64.9%
Q1 - 3:39DALStackhouse 13' Jump Shot (5 PTS)17
33.7%
15
66.3%
Q1 - 3:50SASSUB: Barry FOR Bowen15
15
Q1 - 3:50SASSUB: Oberto FOR Duncan15
15
Q1 - 3:50DALSUB: Stackhouse FOR Nowitzki15
15
Q1 - 3:50SASBowen P.FOUL (P1.T3)15
15
Q1 - 4:10SASParker 1' Layup (4 PTS)15
31.4%
15
68.6%
Q1 - 4:15SASNesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)15
33.1%
13
66.9%
Q1 - 4:17DALMISS Nowitzki 18' Jump Shot15
33.6%
13
66.4%
Q1 - 4:26DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)15
35.0%
13
65.0%
Q1 - 4:28SASMISS Parker 6' Running Jump Shot15
34.4%
13
65.6%
Q1 - 4:32SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)15
33.1%
13
66.9%
Q1 - 4:34DALMISS Nowitzki 12' Jump Shot15
33.7%
13
66.3%
Q1 - 4:52DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)15
35.0%
13
65.0%
Q1 - 4:54SASMISS Duncan 4' Jump Shot15
34.4%
13
65.6%
Q1 - 5:13DALHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)15
32.9%
13
67.1%
Q1 - 5:13DALSUB: Dampier FOR Diop14
13
Q1 - 5:13DALHoward Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)14
32.5%
13
67.5%
Q1 - 5:13DALSUB: Powell FOR Stackhouse13
13
Q1 - 5:13SASSUB: Nesterovic FOR Mohammed13
13
Q1 - 5:13SASSUB: Finley FOR Ginobili13
13
Q1 - 5:13SASMohammed S.FOUL (P1.T2)13
13
Q1 - 5:31SASBowen 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)13
31.5%
13
68.5%
Q1 - 5:38SASParker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)13
34.6%
10
65.4%
Q1 - 5:39SASMISS Parker 3' Driving Layup13
36.0%
10
64.0%
Q1 - 5:52DALHoward 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS)13
34.6%
10
65.4%
Q1 - 6:14SASGinobili Layup (6 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)11
32.7%
10
67.3%
Q1 - 6:26DALTerry P.FOUL (P1.T2)11
8
Q1 - 6:42SASSPURS Timeout: Regular (Full 1 Short 0)11
8
Q1 - 6:47DALStackhouse Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)11
34.2%
8
65.8%
Q1 - 6:47SASGinobili S.FOUL (P1.T1)10
8
Q1 - 6:47DALStackhouse 1' Dunk (2 PTS) (Howard 1 AST)10
8
Q1 - 6:50SASParker Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3)8
31.2%
8
68.8%
Q1 - 7:07SASMohammed REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)8
29.5%
8
70.5%
Q1 - 7:10DALBowen BLOCK (1 BLK)8
30.0%
8
70.0%
Q1 - 7:19DALMavericks Rebound8
31.1%
8
68.9%
Q1 - 7:19DALMohammed BLOCK (1 BLK)8
30.0%
8
70.0%
Q1 - 7:20DALHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)8
31.1%
8
68.9%
Q1 - 7:22DALMISS Terry 19' Jump Shot8
30.0%
8
70.0%
Q1 - 7:27SASDuncan Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)8
31.1%
8
68.9%
Q1 - 7:29SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)8
29.6%
8
70.4%
Q1 - 7:31SASMISS Ginobili 1' Layup8
30.6%
8
69.4%
Q1 - 7:37SASGinobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)8
29.6%
8
70.4%
Q1 - 7:39DALMISS Nowitzki 2' Driving Layup8
30.1%
8
69.9%
Q1 - 7:50DALTerry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)8
31.1%
8
68.9%
Q1 - 7:52SASMISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot8
30.7%
8
69.3%
Q1 - 8:09SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)8
29.7%
8
70.3%
Q1 - 8:10DALMISS Howard 5' Running Jump Shot8
30.1%
8
69.9%
Q1 - 8:30SASParker 1' Layup (2 PTS)8
31.0%
8
69.0%
Q1 - 8:35SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)8
32.3%
6
67.7%
Q1 - 8:36DALMISS Howard 2' Layup8
32.7%
6
67.3%
Q1 - 8:42DALHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)8
33.5%
6
66.5%
Q1 - 8:44SASMISS Duncan 17' Jump Shot8
33.1%
6
66.9%
Q1 - 9:01DALNowitzki 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS)8
32.3%
6
67.7%
Q1 - 9:13SASDuncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)6
31.1%
6
68.9%
Q1 - 9:13SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)6
31.4%
5
68.6%
Q1 - 9:13DALDiop S.FOUL (P1.T1)6
4
Q1 - 9:16SASSPURS Rebound6
32.3%
4
67.7%
Q1 - 9:16SASMISS Parker 3' Reverse Layup6
32.9%
4
67.1%
Q1 - 9:33SASParker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)6
32.3%
4
67.7%
Q1 - 9:35DALMISS Stackhouse 21' Jump Shot6
32.5%
4
67.5%
Q1 - 9:55SASGinobili Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)6
33.1%
4
66.9%
Q1 - 10:10DALHoward 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Stackhouse 1 AST)6
32.1%
4
67.9%
Q1 - 10:18DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)4
31.4%
4
68.6%
Q1 - 10:20SASMISS Duncan 9' Turnaround Hook Shot4
31.2%
4
68.8%
Q1 - 10:45DALDiop 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Terry 1 AST)4
31.1%
4
68.9%
Q1 - 11:01DALMavericks Rebound2
30.9%
4
69.1%
Q1 - 11:02SASMISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot2
30.8%
4
69.2%
Q1 - 11:07SASGinobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
30.7%
4
69.3%
Q1 - 11:09DALMISS Nowitzki 21' Jump Shot2
30.8%
4
69.2%
Q1 - 11:26SASGinobili 3' Driving Hook Shot (4 PTS)2
31.5%
4
68.5%
Q1 - 11:41DALTerry 1' Layup (2 PTS)2
32.0%
2
68.0%
Q1 - 11:55SASGinobili 1' Layup (2 PTS)0
32.3%
2
67.7%
Q1 - 12:00SASJump Ball Mohammed vs. Diop: Tip to Ginobili0
32.4%
0
67.6%
Q1 - 12:000
0
ClockTeamEventDALSAS
Score / WinProb

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DAL
1.12 56.1%
SAS
0.93 46.7%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
DAL
11
19
58%
SAS
10
25
40%
Midrange
DAL
22
44
50%
SAS
11
37
30%
3PT | Effective 3PT
DAL
3
4.5
7
43%
64%
SAS
10
15.0
20
50%
75%
Free Throws
DAL
17
22
77%
SAS
14
21
67%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
DAL logo Mavericks
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
D. Nowitzki3056%15.0 / 27
J. Howard2273%11.0 / 15
J. Terry1454%7.0 / 13
J. Stackhouse1260%6.0 / 10
E. Dampier536%2.5 / 7
J. Powell467%2.0 / 3
D. Diop375%1.5 / 2
M. Daniels250%1.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
SAS logo Spurs
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
M. Ginobili2250%11.0 / 22
M. Finley1458%7.0 / 12
N. Van Exel1488%7.0 / 8
T. Duncan1336%6.5 / 18
T. Parker1033%5.0 / 15
B. Bowen563%2.5 / 4
B. Barry350%1.5 / 3
F. Oberto233%1.0 / 3
R. Nesterovic250%1.0 / 2
N. Mohammed117%0.5 / 3
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DAL
74
+6
-9
80
SAS
72
+20
-12
92
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DAL
1.12 56.1%
SAS
0.93 46.7%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
111.3
107.1
DAL 110.8 +8.5
SAS 102.4
Pace
88.2
88.8
DAL 83.3
SAS 83.7 +0.4
Avg. Poss. Time
16.9
16.9
DAL 17.3
SAS 17.2 −0.1
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
49.5%
51.3%
DAL 53.6% +9.7%
SAS 43.9%
TO %
14.4%
14.8%
DAL 10.1% −1.5%
SAS 11.6%
ORB %
31.9%
26.1%
DAL 13.3%
SAS 31.8% +18.5%
FTrt
36.4
29.8
DAL 31.4 +5.8
SAS 25.6
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
50.0%
57.4%
DAL 36.1%
SAS 58.1% +22.0%
STL %
8.1%
7.4%
DAL 7.2% +4.8%
SAS 2.4%
BLK %
9.4%
8.4%
DAL 12.9% +3.4%
SAS 9.5%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
53.3%
53.1%
DAL 56.1% +9.4%
SAS 46.7%
Rim FG%
55.4%
61.7%
DAL 57.9% +17.9%
SAS 40.0%
Mid FG%
43.4%
39.0%
DAL 50.0% +20.3%
SAS 29.7%
3P %
37.4%
38.5%
DAL 42.9%
SAS 50.0% +7.1%
FT %
78.3%
70.2%
DAL 77.3% +10.6%
SAS 66.7%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
32.5%
36.7%
DAL 27.1%
SAS 30.5% +3.3%
Mid Att. %
50.0%
41.8%
DAL 62.9%
SAS 45.1% −17.7%
3P Att. %
17.5%
21.5%
DAL 10.0%
SAS 24.4% +14.4%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsDALSAS
Possessions8384
Possession Minutes23.924.1
Points9286
Rebounds3440
Assists1318
Steals62
Blocks86
Turnovers (Team)9 (0)12 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)4 (2)14 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)30 (4)26 (4)
Field Goals36-7031-82
At-the-Rim FG11-1910-25
Midrange FG22-4411-37
2-Point FG33-6321-62
3-Point FG3-710-20
Free Throws17-2214-21
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
F · 7'0" 245 · 28
42.0
30
56%
10
2
0
2
0
1
0
10
7-8
88%
10-21
48%
1-3
33%
G · 6'2" 185 · 29
41.1
14
54%
5
4
2
1
2
1
1
4
0-0
-
7-12
58%
0-1
0%
G · 6'6" 218 · 31
38.4
12
60%
2
2
0
0
3
1
0
2
3-3
100%
3-7
43%
1-2
50%
F · 6'7" 210 · 26
33.7
22
73%
10
1
1
0
1
4
1
9
3-5
60%
8-12
67%
1-1
100%
C · 7'0" 280 · 24
21.5
3
75%
1
0
0
4
0
4
0
1
1-2
50%
1-1
100%
0-0
-
C · 6'11" 265 · 31
26.4
5
36%
4
1
1
1
0
5
2
2
3-4
75%
1-5
20%
0-0
-
F · 6'9" 240 · 23
14.1
4
67%
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
2-3
67%
0-0
-
F · 6'6" 200 · 25
13.6
2
50%
1
2
1
0
3
4
0
1
0-0
-
1-2
50%
0-0
-
G · 6'1" 180 · 38
9.2
0
0%
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
G-F · 6'7" 190 · 24
C · 7'0" 255 · 25
G-F · 6'5" 230 · 32
#2 · F · 6'10" 245 · 30
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#34 · G · 6'3" 185 · 23
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#24 · C · 7'5" 260 · 21
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
92
56%
34
13
6
8
9
0
4
30
17-22
77%
33-63
52%
3-7
43%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.