Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, April 7, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Celtics | 46% | 95 | 109 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Pistons | 65% | 91 | 87 |
 | 22 | Magic | 35% | 86 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Knicks | 30% | 90 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Bucks | 31% | 89 | 90 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Raptors | 40% | 95 | 89 |
| 25 | Hornets | 60% | 98 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 21 | Timberwolves | 56% | 91 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Mavericks | 32% | 88 | 92 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | SuperSonics | 62% | 99 | 121 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Lakers | 24% | 99 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thursday, April 6, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Bobcats | 28% | 90 | 102 |
| 7 | Nets | 72% | 97 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pistons | 55% | 93 | 95 |
 | 10 | Heat | 45% | 91 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lakers | 42% | 95 | 108 |
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Wednesday, April 5, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 40% | 97 | 108 |
| 14 | Celtics | 60% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bulls | 44% | 94 | 99 |
| 19 | 76ers | 56% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 51% | 93 | 99 |
| 28 | Hawks | 49% | 92 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bucks | 42% | 93 | 105 |
| 23 | Magic | 58% | 96 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 23% | 91 | 103 |
| 9 | Pacers | 77% | 100 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 12 | Cavaliers | 67% | 98 | 94 |
| 29 | Knicks | 33% | 92 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Warriors | 39% | 92 | 109 |
| 25 | Hornets | 61% | 95 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kings | 23% | 87 | 97 |
| 1 | Spurs | 77% | 96 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 27% | 99 | 119 |
| 3 | Suns | 73% | 107 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Rockets | 56% | 87 | 75 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 85 | 76 |
Tuesday, April 4, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celtics | 52% | 100 | 124 |
| 26 | Raptors | 48% | 99 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 21% | 95 | 90 |
| 12 | Wizards | 79% | 105 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 34% | 93 | 91 |
| 10 | Cavaliers | 66% | 98 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 22% | 88 | 94 |
| 7 | Nets | 78% | 98 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Timberwolves | 44% | 92 | 92 |
| 21 | Bobcats | 56% | 94 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bucks | 37% | 95 | 89 |
| 11 | Heat | 63% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 15% | 82 | 93 | |
| 2 | Pistons | 85% | 95 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 27% | 89 | 75 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 73% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 48% | 91 | 96 |
| 17 | Bulls | 52% | 92 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kings | 36% | 92 | 101 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 64% | 97 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 66% | 92 | 95 |
| 18 | Jazz | 34% | 87 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Rockets | 46% | 94 | 87 |
| 22 | SuperSonics | 54% | 95 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 36% | 94 | 109 |
| 8 | Clippers | 64% | 99 | 111 |
Sunday, April 2, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 40% | 93 | 120 | |
| 24 | Raptors | 60% | 97 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 28% | 95 | 95 |
| 17 | 76ers | 72% | 103 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 34% | 96 | 102 |
| 2 | Pistons | 66% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nuggets | 30% | 92 | 79 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 70% | 98 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Warriors | 39% | 91 | 104 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 61% | 94 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 31% | 87 | 88 |
| 12 | Lakers | 69% | 93 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 21% | 88 | 87 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 79% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 34% | 90 | 78 |
| 7 | Nets | 66% | 95 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cavaliers | 45% | 96 | 101 |
| 22 | Bobcats | 55% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 38% | 93 | 96 |
| 5 | Kings | 62% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 20% | 92 | 83 |
| 20 | SuperSonics | 80% | 103 | 122 | |
Saturday, April 1, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 41% | 95 | 99 |
| 12 | Cavaliers | 59% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celtics | 46% | 94 | 94 |
| 17 | Bulls | 54% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 48% | 93 | 89 |
| 16 | Bucks | 52% | 94 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 18% | 89 | 99 |
| 1 | Spurs | 82% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 58% | 93 | 102 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 42% | 90 | 89 |
Friday, March 31, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 56% | 106 | 140 |
| 21 | Raptors | 44% | 104 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nets | 62% | 96 | 91 | |
| 27 | Hawks | 38% | 92 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 63% | 93 | 99 |
| 24 | Magic | 37% | 89 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 59% | 99 | 117 |
| 29 | Knicks | 41% | 96 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 49% | 96 | 113 |
| 26 | Bobcats | 51% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 24% | 88 | 105 |
| 2 | Pistons | 76% | 98 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Grizzlies | 65% | 89 | 102 |
| 28 | Hornets | 35% | 84 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 51% | 94 | 103 |
| 25 | Rockets | 49% | 93 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Timberwolves | 34% | 89 | 94 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 66% | 95 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 34% | 91 | 91 |
| 8 | Clippers | 66% | 96 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kings | 57% | 98 | 96 |
| 23 | Warriors | 43% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lakers | 48% | 99 | 106 |
| 22 | SuperSonics | 52% | 100 | 93 | |
Thursday, March 30, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 52% | 100 | 114 |
| 11 | Pacers | 48% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 58% | 93 | 96 |
| 8 | Lakers | 42% | 91 | 85 |
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Heat | 55% | 100 | 98 |
| 22 | Raptors | 45% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pistons | 58% | 94 | 101 |
| 17 | 76ers | 42% | 91 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 64% | 97 | 93 |
| 28 | Hawks | 36% | 92 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 45% | 92 | 94 |
| 12 | Cavaliers | 55% | 94 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Grizzlies | 43% | 87 | 74 |
| 8 | Nets | 57% | 89 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 63% | 100 | 123 |
| 29 | Knicks | 37% | 96 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 32% | 85 | 91 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 68% | 91 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | SuperSonics | 39% | 93 | 87 | |
| 26 | Rockets | 61% | 97 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jazz | 38% | 94 | 115 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 62% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kings | 71% | 96 | 106 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 29% | 89 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 40% | 93 | 86 | |
| 23 | Warriors | 60% | 96 | 85 |
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 36% | 94 | 117 |
| 23 | Bobcats | 64% | 99 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 33% | 86 | 90 |
| 1 | Pistons | 67% | 92 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 49% | 103 | 110 |
| 14 | Bucks | 51% | 104 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | SuperSonics | 24% | 91 | 98 | |
| 4 | Grizzlies | 76% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 34% | 88 | 97 |
| 17 | Bulls | 66% | 93 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 22% | 92 | 97 |
| 6 | Kings | 78% | 102 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 56% | 92 | 98 |
| 11 | Clippers | 44% | 90 | 87 |
Monday, March 27, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 54% | 100 | 72 |
| 8 | Nets | 46% | 99 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 30% | 91 | 91 |
| 6 | Heat | 70% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hornets | 35% | 88 | 80 | |
| 20 | Jazz | 65% | 93 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wizards | 53% | 100 | 116 |
| 25 | Warriors | 47% | 99 | 98 |
Sunday, March 26, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 40% | 94 | 101 |
| 12 | Celtics | 60% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 34% | 91 | 79 |
| 11 | Pacers | 66% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cavaliers | 55% | 90 | 104 |
| 26 | Rockets | 45% | 89 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 27% | 88 | 94 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 73% | 96 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 28% | 85 | 79 | |
| 2 | Pistons | 72% | 93 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 40% | 98 | 116 |
| 15 | Bucks | 60% | 101 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bobcats | 19% | 85 | 95 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 81% | 96 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 30% | 90 | 101 |
| 23 | Magic | 70% | 97 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 68% | 99 | 102 |
| 19 | SuperSonics | 32% | 93 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Warriors | 27% | 93 | 90 |
| 5 | Kings | 73% | 101 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 67% | 96 | 97 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 33% | 91 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 31% | 90 | 94 | |
| 9 | Lakers | 69% | 96 | 105 |
Saturday, March 25, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 37% | 97 | 101 |
| 8 | Clippers | 63% | 101 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 66% | 97 | 98 |
| 27 | Hawks | 34% | 92 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kings | 57% | 95 | 91 |
| 21 | Jazz | 43% | 93 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 23% | 99 | 96 |
| 3 | Suns | 77% | 108 | 107 |