Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 10 | Heat | 51% | 108 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Pistons | 91 | ||
 | 21 | Knicks | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Pelicans | 49% | 112 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Timberwolves | 102 | ||
 | 13 | Mavericks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Lakers | 37% | 110 | 90 |
Monday, December 20, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 9 | Celtics | 56% | 109 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Bulls | 70% | 114 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Thunder | 102 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Hornets | 16% | 109 | 102 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, December 19, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Lakers | 110 | ||
| 19 | Bulls | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 75% | 111 | 90 |
| 28 | Pistons | 25% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 105 | ||
| 11 | Grizzlies | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Spurs | 56% | 115 | 114 |
| 26 | Kings | 44% | 113 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 41% | 109 | 105 |
| 14 | Timberwolves | 59% | 112 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 106 | ||
| 3 | Suns | 137 | ||
Saturday, December 18, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Rockets | 56% | 110 | 116 |
| 28 | Pistons | 44% | 108 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Magic | 100 | ||
 | 5 | Nets | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 41% | 103 | 100 |
 | 11 | Raptors | 59% | 106 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 103 | ||
| 30 | Thunder | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 37% | 105 | 107 |
| 8 | Celtics | 63% | 110 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Bucks | 90 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Jazz | 78% | 116 | 103 |
Friday, December 17, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 64% | 110 | 115 |
| 29 | Magic | 36% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2_1_'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23E03A3E;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_2_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M312.9,93.7c-28.8-30.8-70.7-48.4-115-48.4c-3.8,0-7.6,0.1-11.3,0.5c-71.5,4.8-106,55.7-109.6,61.3%20c-5.4,6.7-50.7,68-20.3,152.6l0.6,1.8C57.6,262.4,87.2,353,193,353l0,0c5.6,0,11.5-0.3,17.4-0.8c79.1-6.9,137.8-65.3,142.8-141.9%20C356.3,166.2,342,124.8,312.9,93.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M305.4,100.6c-29.7-31.7-73.5-48-118.3-44.9C116,60.5,84.4,113.4,84.4,113.4s56.4,17.1,64.1,19.5%20c5.4,1.6,40.4,10.4,56.3,19c3.3,1.8,6.5,5.5,9.7,8.8c2.4,2.5,4.6,4.9,6.9,6.8c4.2,3.4,8.2,6.3,12.2,9.2%20c9.7,7.1,18.2,13.1,22.2,22.4c3.4,8,3.5,16.4,0.5,24.1c-2.7,6.7-8,12.8-14.4,17c0.7-3.4,1.5-8.3-3.1-11.3%20c-2.1-1.3-12.6-3.8-19.7-4.6c-3.4-0.3-41.5-2.1-94.3,26.4c15.8-21.2,27.2-24.7,27.2-24.7c-0.5-2.5-85.5,31.9-85.5,31.9%20s29.4,94.1,142.8,84.1c73.9-6.5,128.9-60.6,133.7-132.7C345.8,168.2,332.4,129.5,305.4,100.6%20M281.8,233.8%20c10.7-23.6,5.4-49.2-12.8-69.5c-5-5.6-11.3-9.5-17.3-13.1c-3.9-2.4-8-4.9-11.6-7.9c-1.7-1.4-3.1-3.3-4.6-5.2%20c-1.8-2.5-3.9-5.4-6.9-7.4c-16.7-12.2-36.5-16.5-55.9-22.2c-9.2-2.7-18.1-4.7-26.5-7.7c10.5-7.2,23.8-12,38.4-13.3%20c4.6-0.5,9.1-0.7,13.7-0.7c43.1,0,80.5,21.6,100.5,58c19.9,36.3,18.7,80.4-3.4,115.2c-22.7,35.7-62.9,54.6-108.4,50.8%20c-27.2-2.2-56.3-16.6-65.2-32c5.5-3.4,55.2-29.7,89.3-19.1c9.7,0-5.8,23.7-5.8,23.7S261.6,278.4,281.8,233.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M197.7,162.3c-18.2,0.7-35.1-21.3-49.1-6.8c2.7,0.7,8.3-1.4,9.1,1.1C150.5,185,197.3,192.4,197.7,162.3'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 14 | Hawks | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 53% | 108 | 111 |
| 9 | Celtics | 47% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lakers | 92 | ||
| 17 | Timberwolves | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Spurs | 19% | 106 | 128 |
| 1 | Jazz | 81% | 119 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 112 | ||
| 20 | Pelicans | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 40% | 114 | 116 |
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 118 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 124 | ||
| 26 | Kings | 105 | ||
Thursday, December 16, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 113 | ||
| 13 | Pacers | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 76ers | 42% | 107 | 105 |
| 5 | Nets | 58% | 110 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 62% | 113 | 116 |
| 27 | Rockets | 38% | 109 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 98 | ||
| 2 | Suns | 118 | ||
Wednesday, December 15, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Rockets | 29% | 107 | 89 |
| 16 | Cavaliers | 71% | 116 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 111 | ||
| 29 | Magic | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 38% | 103 | 101 |
| 6 | 76ers | 62% | 108 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Lakers | 107 | ||
| 14 | Mavericks | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 49% | 108 | 99 |
| 4 | Bucks | 51% | 109 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 113 | ||
| 30 | Thunder | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hornets | 40% | 112 | 131 |
| 25 | Spurs | 60% | 115 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Timberwolves | 124 | ||
| 8 | Nuggets | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 20% | 104 | 103 |
| 1 | Jazz | 80% | 116 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 113 | ||
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 52% | 114 | 105 |
| 26 | Kings | 48% | 113 | 119 |
Tuesday, December 14, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Raptors | 35% | 106 | 129 |
| 5 | Nets | 65% | 111 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 105 | ||
| 22 | Knicks | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 111 | ||
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 107 | ||
Monday, December 13, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 94 | ||
| 15 | Cavaliers | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 60% | 110 | 102 |
| 12 | Pacers | 40% | 106 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 101 | ||
| 11 | Raptors | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Rockets | 29% | 112 | 132 |
| 13 | Hawks | 71% | 120 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 103 | ||
| 9 | Celtics | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 54% | 107 | 91 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 46% | 105 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hornets | 96 | ||
| 14 | Mavericks | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 35% | 108 | 107 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 65% | 113 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 95 | ||
| 7 | Clippers | 111 | ||
Sunday, December 12, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 112 | ||
| 19 | Knicks | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 72% | 110 | 116 |
| 29 | Pistons | 28% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 103 | ||
| 30 | Thunder | 84 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 49% | 111 | 97 |
| 25 | Spurs | 51% | 112 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Timberwolves | 116 | ||
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 23% | 106 | 94 |
| 18 | Lakers | 77% | 117 | 106 |
Saturday, December 11, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 27% | 104 | 104 |
| 6 | Clippers | 73% | 113 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 123 | ||
| 24 | Wizards | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 32% | 108 | 103 |
| 16 | Cavaliers | 68% | 115 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 92 | ||
| 10 | Heat | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Rockets | 30% | 107 | 106 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 70% | 114 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 93 | ||
| 5 | 76ers | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 54% | 112 | 127 |
| 25 | Spurs | 46% | 110 | 112 |
Friday, December 10, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 123 | ||
| 21 | Hornets | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mavericks | 46% | 109 | 93 |
| 13 | Pacers | 54% | 110 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nets | 113 | ||
| 12 | Hawks | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 42% | 107 | 87 |
| 11 | Raptors | 58% | 109 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 123 | ||
| 27 | Rockets | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Cavaliers | 54% | 108 | 123 |
| 18 | Timberwolves | 46% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 93 | ||
| 23 | Pelicans | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Lakers | 59% | 111 | 116 |
| 30 | Thunder | 41% | 108 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 90 | ||
| 2 | Suns | 111 | ||
Thursday, December 9, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 49% | 109 | 118 |
| 2 | 76ers | 51% | 110 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 95 | ||
| 15 | Grizzlies | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 48% | 110 | 111 |
| 25 | Spurs | 52% | 111 | 123 |
Wednesday, December 8, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 110 | ||
| 21 | Hornets | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bulls | 46% | 106 | 92 |
| 17 | Cavaliers | 54% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 119 | ||
| 28 | Pistons | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 36% | 105 | 102 |
| 13 | Pacers | 64% | 110 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 104 | ||
| 10 | Heat | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 24% | 102 | 110 |
| 12 | Raptors | 76% | 112 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 104 | ||
| 27 | Rockets | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 40% | 109 | 104 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 60% | 113 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 136 | ||
| 18 | Timberwolves | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 57% | 111 | 120 |
| 24 | Pelicans | 43% | 109 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 94 | ||
| 2 | Warriors | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 31% | 108 | 130 |
| 26 | Kings | 69% | 115 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 111 | ||
| 7 | Clippers | 114 | ||