Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, January 5, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Pistons | 28% | 107 | 111 |
 | 23 | Hornets | 72% | 116 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Magic | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 7 | Celtics | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Nets | 65% | 113 | 129 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 13 | Mavericks | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Raptors | 40% | 109 | 117 |
 | 4 | Bucks | 60% | 113 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Thunder | 90 | ||
 | 14 | Timberwolves | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Heat | 115 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tuesday, January 4, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 15 | Cavaliers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Spurs | 30% | 107 | 104 |
| 10 | Raptors | 70% | 114 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 94 | ||
 | 21 | Knicks | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Pelicans | 34% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 114 | ||
 | 19 | Lakers | 122 | ||
Monday, January 3, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Rockets | 113 | ||
| 5 | 76ers | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 37% | 112 | 121 |
| 25 | Wizards | 63% | 116 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 118 | ||
| 6 | Nets | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 18% | 104 | 98 |
 | 17 | Bulls | 82% | 117 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 115 | ||
| 4 | Bucks | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 73% | 118 | 115 |
| 20 | Pelicans | 27% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 89 | ||
| 13 | Mavericks | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 22% | 100 | 108 |
| 2 | Warriors | 78% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 131 | ||
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 136 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Timberwolves | 38% | 105 | 122 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 7 | Clippers | 62% | 110 | 104 |
Sunday, January 2, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 35% | 105 | 105 |
| 11 | Raptors | 65% | 111 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 111 | ||
| 8 | Celtics | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 37% | 102 | 104 |
| 14 | Cavaliers | 63% | 107 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 113 | ||
| 26 | Kings | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 57% | 116 | 133 |
| 19 | Hornets | 43% | 113 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 95 | ||
| 29 | Thunder | 86 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Timberwolves | 44% | 107 | 103 |
| 23 | Lakers | 56% | 110 | 108 |
Saturday, January 1, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 22% | 104 | 113 |
| 5 | Bucks | 78% | 115 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Spurs | 116 | ||
| 28 | Pistons | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 46% | 111 | 120 |
| 25 | Wizards | 54% | 112 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 120 | ||
| 6 | Nets | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 74% | 115 | 124 |
| 27 | Rockets | 26% | 106 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 123 | ||
| 1 | Jazz | 116 | ||
Friday, December 31, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 59% | 111 | 108 |
| 11 | Celtics | 41% | 108 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 108 | ||
| 14 | Pacers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 53% | 110 | 112 |
| 26 | Kings | 47% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 120 | ||
| 27 | Rockets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 42% | 106 | 121 |
| 15 | Cavaliers | 58% | 109 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 108 | ||
| 13 | Raptors | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Spurs | 35% | 111 | 105 |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 65% | 116 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 80 | ||
| 29 | Thunder | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Timberwolves | 19% | 104 | 108 |
| 1 | Jazz | 81% | 117 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 106 | ||
| 24 | Lakers | 139 | ||
Thursday, December 30, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 44% | 108 | 110 |
| 6 | Nets | 56% | 110 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 136 | ||
| 29 | Magic | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cavaliers | 56% | 105 | 93 |
| 25 | Wizards | 44% | 103 | 110 |
Wednesday, December 29, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 94 | ||
| 28 | Pistons | 85 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hornets | 39% | 110 | 116 |
| 13 | Pacers | 61% | 114 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 91 | ||
| 11 | Celtics | 82 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 40% | 110 | 117 |
| 17 | Bulls | 60% | 114 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Lakers | 99 | ||
| 10 | Grizzlies | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 97 | ||
| 2 | Suns | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 73% | 118 | 120 |
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 27% | 109 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 94 | ||
| 26 | Kings | 95 | ||
Tuesday, December 28, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 127 | ||
| 29 | Magic | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 29% | 101 | 112 |
| 8 | Heat | 71% | 109 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 114 | ||
| 14 | Raptors | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Lakers | 65% | 114 | 132 |
| 27 | Rockets | 35% | 109 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 96 | ||
| 16 | Timberwolves | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 61% | 106 | 104 |
| 20 | Pelicans | 39% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 89 | ||
| 2 | Warriors | 86 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 42% | 111 | 111 |
| 26 | Kings | 58% | 114 | 117 |
Monday, December 27, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Rockets | 34% | 113 | 99 |
| 23 | Hornets | 66% | 118 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 130 | ||
| 17 | Hawks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 68% | 109 | 103 |
| 16 | Timberwolves | 32% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 110 | ||
| 22 | Spurs | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 23% | 108 | 114 |
| 3 | Suns | 77% | 118 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 132 | ||
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 63% | 109 | 124 |
| 7 | Clippers | 37% | 104 | 108 |
Sunday, December 26, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 25% | 101 | 83 |
| 9 | Heat | 75% | 111 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 99 | ||
| 14 | Cavaliers | 144 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 62% | 108 | 117 |
| 24 | Wizards | 38% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 127 | ||
| 26 | Kings | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 55% | 109 | 112 |
| 30 | Thunder | 45% | 108 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 109 | ||
| 22 | Spurs | 144 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 49% | 109 | 105 |
| 20 | Bulls | 51% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nuggets | 103 | ||
| 7 | Clippers | 100 | ||
Saturday, December 25, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 87 | ||
| 21 | Knicks | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 44% | 107 | 113 |
| 4 | Bucks | 56% | 109 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 116 | ||
| 2 | Suns | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 59% | 113 | 122 |
| 25 | Lakers | 41% | 109 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 116 | ||
| 1 | Jazz | 120 | ||
Thursday, December 23, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Rockets | 106 | ||
| 17 | Pacers | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pelicans | 70% | 111 | 110 |
| 29 | Magic | 30% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 98 | ||
| 4 | 76ers | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 28% | 104 | 112 |
| 8 | Heat | 72% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 124 | ||
| 21 | Knicks | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 44% | 104 | 102 |
| 13 | Mavericks | 56% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 115 | ||
| 10 | Nuggets | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 12% | 100 | 101 |
| 2 | Suns | 88% | 117 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Timberwolves | 116 | ||
| 1 | Jazz | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 32% | 105 | 104 |
| 3 | Warriors | 68% | 112 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Spurs | 47% | 112 | 138 |
| 23 | Lakers | 53% | 113 | 110 |