Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, March 9, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 67% | 113 | 115 |
 | 19 | Hornets | 33% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bulls | 114 | ||
 | 27 | Pistons | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 9 | Heat | 60% | 109 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Bucks | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Lakers | 62% | 116 | 130 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Thunder | 102 | ||
 | 14 | Timberwolves | 132 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Magic | 27% | 103 | 108 |
 | 16 | Pelicans | 73% | 111 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Knicks | 107 | ||
 | 10 | Mavericks | 77 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Raptors | 48% | 111 | 119 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 7 | Clippers | 115 | ||
Tuesday, March 8, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Nets | 51% | 116 | 132 |
| 19 | Hornets | 49% | 115 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 69% | 111 | 102 |
| 28 | Magic | 31% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pelicans | 111 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 86% | 116 | 142 |
| 30 | Thunder | 14% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 97 | ||
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Monday, March 7, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warriors | 124 | ||
| 11 | Nuggets | 131 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 110 | ||
| 27 | Pistons | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 25% | 109 | 106 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Rockets | 106 | ||
| 7 | Heat | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 20% | 106 | 81 |
| 14 | Timberwolves | 80% | 118 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jazz | 103 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Lakers | 39% | 111 | 110 |
| 23 | Spurs | 61% | 115 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 131 | ||
| 25 | Kings | 115 | ||
Sunday, March 6, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 120 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 32% | 108 | 122 |
| 2 | Bucks | 68% | 115 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 96 | ||
| 17 | Cavaliers | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 51% | 112 | 123 |
| 24 | Wizards | 49% | 111 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 112 | ||
| 29 | Rockets | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jazz | 84% | 114 | 116 |
| 30 | Thunder | 16% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 116 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pelicans | 43% | 110 | 130 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 57% | 112 | 138 |
Saturday, March 5, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 113 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Spurs | 42% | 113 | 117 |
| 19 | Hornets | 58% | 116 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 76ers | 82 | ||
| 9 | Heat | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 13% | 103 | 96 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 87% | 118 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 121 | ||
| 14 | Timberwolves | 135 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 69% | 115 | 116 |
| 21 | Lakers | 31% | 108 | 124 |
Friday, March 4, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 103 | ||
| 14 | Raptors | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 106 | ||
| 27 | Pistons | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Cavaliers | 33% | 104 | 119 |
| 2 | 76ers | 67% | 110 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 117 | ||
| 22 | Wizards | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 61% | 117 | 118 |
| 17 | Bulls | 39% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jazz | 90 | ||
| 16 | Pelicans | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Timberwolves | 77% | 114 | 138 |
| 30 | Thunder | 23% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Rockets | 101 | ||
| 11 | Nuggets | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 35% | 103 | 114 |
| 5 | Suns | 65% | 109 | 115 |
Thursday, March 3, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 124 | ||
| 12 | Hawks | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 107 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 51% | 109 | 113 |
| 13 | Nets | 49% | 108 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 108 | ||
| 14 | Raptors | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 48% | 109 | 113 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 52% | 110 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 115 | ||
| 22 | Spurs | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lakers | 37% | 106 | 111 |
| 6 | Clippers | 63% | 111 | 132 |
Wednesday, March 2, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hornets | 119 | ||
| 17 | Cavaliers | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 59% | 111 | 122 |
| 28 | Magic | 41% | 108 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 108 | ||
| 2 | 76ers | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jazz | 84% | 122 | 132 |
| 29 | Rockets | 16% | 108 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 119 | ||
| 5 | Bucks | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 33% | 111 | 95 |
| 16 | Pelicans | 67% | 117 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 119 | ||
| 10 | Nuggets | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 16% | 101 | 90 |
| 4 | Suns | 84% | 115 | 120 |
Tuesday, March 1, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 113 | ||
| 24 | Wizards | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 32% | 107 | 98 |
| 1 | Celtics | 68% | 114 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nets | 108 | ||
| 13 | Raptors | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 68% | 116 | 113 |
| 29 | Rockets | 32% | 110 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 114 | ||
| 14 | Timberwolves | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 62% | 112 | 109 |
| 20 | Lakers | 38% | 107 | 104 |
Monday, February 28, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 133 | ||
| 12 | Nets | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Timberwolves | 127 | ||
| 19 | Cavaliers | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 56% | 111 | 103 |
| 30 | Magic | 44% | 109 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 99 | ||
| 9 | Heat | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Spurs | 26% | 109 | 105 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 74% | 119 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hornets | 106 | ||
| 2 | Bucks | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 63% | 111 | 131 |
| 28 | Thunder | 37% | 106 | 110 |
Sunday, February 27, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 125 | ||
| 23 | Knicks | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jazz | 52% | 113 | 118 |
| 4 | Suns | 48% | 112 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 107 | ||
| 21 | Pacers | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 24% | 106 | 127 |
| 16 | Hornets | 76% | 116 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 99 | ||
| 30 | Rockets | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 45% | 107 | 107 |
| 8 | Warriors | 55% | 109 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nuggets | 124 | ||
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 47% | 111 | 123 |
| 20 | Lakers | 53% | 112 | 95 |
Saturday, February 26, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 79% | 111 | 113 |
| 29 | Pistons | 21% | 100 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 100 | ||
| 12 | Hawks | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 28% | 101 | 86 |
| 19 | Cavaliers | 72% | 109 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Spurs | 129 | ||
| 9 | Heat | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grizzlies | 57% | 116 | 116 |
| 17 | Bulls | 43% | 114 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 126 | ||
| 5 | Bucks | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 25% | 110 | 110 |
| 10 | Nuggets | 75% | 119 | 115 |
Friday, February 25, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 93 | ||
| 17 | Hornets | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Thunder | 22% | 103 | 129 |
| 21 | Pacers | 78% | 114 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Rockets | 111 | ||
| 27 | Magic | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Spurs | 58% | 112 | 157 |
| 24 | Wizards | 42% | 109 | 153 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 115 | ||
| 23 | Knicks | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 76ers | 48% | 111 | 133 |
| 14 | Timberwolves | 52% | 112 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pelicans | 117 | ||
| 2 | Suns | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 35% | 108 | 109 |
| 3 | Jazz | 65% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 105 | ||
| 20 | Lakers | 102 | ||
Thursday, February 24, 2022
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Cavaliers | 68% | 108 | 103 |
| 28 | Pistons | 32% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 129 | ||
| 14 | Nets | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 49% | 116 | 108 |
| 17 | Bulls | 51% | 117 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Grizzlies | 114 | ||
| 13 | Timberwolves | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 81% | 113 | 124 |
| 29 | Thunder | 19% | 100 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 132 | ||
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 64% | 117 | 128 |
| 26 | Kings | 36% | 112 | 110 |