Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, December 23, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 76ers | 66% | 100 | 108 | |
| 28 | Hawks | 34% | 95 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 54% | 92 | 104 | |
| 24 | Magic | 46% | 91 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 40% | 90 | 90 | |
| 26 | Knicks | 60% | 93 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Clippers | 53% | 95 | 97 | |
| 23 | Bobcats | 47% | 94 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 40% | 94 | 95 | |
| 7 | Heat | 60% | 98 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 22% | 90 | 85 | |
| 1 | Pistons | 78% | 99 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 40% | 91 | 89 | |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 60% | 95 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 27% | 86 | 77 | |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 73% | 94 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 18% | 81 | 91 | |
| 12 | Timberwolves | 82% | 93 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 33% | 91 | 94 | |
| 19 | Bucks | 67% | 97 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 18% | 88 | 90 | |
| 5 | Spurs | 82% | 100 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 34% | 88 | 86 | |
| 10 | Nuggets | 66% | 93 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 28% | 98 | 112 | |
| 3 | Suns | 72% | 106 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 49% | 99 | 101 | |
| 13 | SuperSonics | 51% | 100 | 98 | |
Thursday, December 22, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 51% | 98 | 108 | |
| 20 | Bulls | 49% | 97 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 49% | 98 | 105 | |
| 7 | Kings | 51% | 99 | 95 | |
Wednesday, December 21, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 37% | 97 | 100 | |
| 12 | 76ers | 63% | 101 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nets | 52% | 91 | 96 | |
| 24 | Magic | 48% | 90 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Clippers | 33% | 87 | 75 | |
| 11 | Pacers | 67% | 93 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 27% | 87 | 89 | |
| 22 | Celtics | 73% | 94 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 64% | 94 | 109 | |
| 26 | Knicks | 36% | 90 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 11% | 78 | 79 | |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 89% | 93 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 26% | 86 | 69 | |
| 10 | Timberwolves | 74% | 94 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 24% | 87 | 94 | |
| 17 | Rockets | 76% | 96 | 81 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 40% | 97 | 116 | |
| 16 | Nuggets | 60% | 100 | 110 | |
Tuesday, December 20, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jazz | 19% | 89 | 85 | |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 81% | 100 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Clippers | 36% | 91 | 85 | |
| 10 | Nets | 64% | 95 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 17% | 91 | 92 | |
| 6 | Heat | 83% | 103 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 11% | 78 | 89 | |
| 1 | Pistons | 89% | 94 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 60% | 96 | 107 | |
| 20 | Bucks | 40% | 92 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bobcats | 30% | 92 | 105 | |
| 21 | Bulls | 70% | 98 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | SuperSonics | 22% | 99 | 83 | |
| 3 | Suns | 78% | 109 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 57% | 94 | 90 | |
| 15 | Lakers | 43% | 92 | 112 | |
Monday, December 19, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 28% | 91 | 92 | |
| 23 | Magic | 72% | 98 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 42% | 95 | 98 | |
| 22 | Celtics | 58% | 98 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kings | 66% | 103 | 103 | |
| 29 | Bobcats | 34% | 98 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pistons | 47% | 87 | 106 | |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 53% | 88 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 35% | 101 | 101 | |
| 13 | SuperSonics | 65% | 106 | 111 | |
Sunday, December 18, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 58% | 101 | 107 | |
| 25 | Raptors | 42% | 99 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 63% | 98 | 107 | |
| 28 | Hawks | 37% | 93 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 39% | 95 | 90 | |
| 9 | Nets | 61% | 98 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 29% | 87 | 95 | |
| 1 | Mavericks | 71% | 94 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 68% | 96 | 92 | |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 90 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 40% | 89 | 76 | |
| 17 | Lakers | 60% | 92 | 74 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 64% | 92 | 76 | |
| 24 | Hornets | 36% | 88 | 89 | |
Saturday, December 17, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 48% | 90 | 81 | |
| 19 | Clippers | 52% | 91 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 60% | 92 | 102 | |
| 28 | Knicks | 40% | 89 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pistons | 62% | 94 | 103 | |
| 25 | Bobcats | 38% | 91 | 78 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heat | 35% | 95 | 107 | |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 65% | 100 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 42% | 92 | 87 | |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 58% | 95 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Celtics | 40% | 93 | 86 | |
| 23 | Bulls | 60% | 96 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 41% | 91 | 88 | |
| 22 | Bucks | 59% | 94 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kings | 30% | 93 | 89 | |
| 3 | Spurs | 70% | 100 | 90 | |
Friday, December 16, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Warriors | 58% | 102 | 108 | |
| 27 | Raptors | 42% | 100 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heat | 46% | 95 | 112 | |
| 11 | 76ers | 54% | 96 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Knicks | 51% | 96 | 111 | |
| 29 | Hawks | 49% | 95 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 33% | 84 | 83 | |
| 14 | Pacers | 67% | 90 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 40% | 95 | 100 | |
| 20 | Celtics | 60% | 98 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 35% | 91 | 106 | |
| 12 | Nets | 65% | 96 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 23% | 87 | 82 | |
| 2 | Pistons | 77% | 97 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 64% | 99 | 101 | |
| 25 | Hornets | 36% | 94 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 16% | 83 | 103 | |
| 1 | Mavericks | 84% | 96 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SuperSonics | 56% | 96 | 111 | |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 94 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 37% | 96 | 91 | |
| 17 | Lakers | 63% | 100 | 97 | |
Thursday, December 15, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 35% | 95 | 85 | |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 65% | 100 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 51% | 90 | 90 | |
| 11 | Timberwolves | 49% | 89 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 42% | 95 | 104 | |
| 15 | SuperSonics | 58% | 98 | 98 | |
Wednesday, December 14, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 47% | 98 | 105 | |
| 24 | Raptors | 53% | 99 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 18% | 91 | 101 | |
| 9 | 76ers | 82% | 102 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 49% | 91 | 71 | |
| 21 | Celtics | 51% | 92 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bobcats | 24% | 90 | 91 | |
| 11 | Nets | 76% | 99 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 39% | 89 | 105 | |
| 25 | Knicks | 61% | 93 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kings | 25% | 92 | 98 | |
| 1 | Pistons | 75% | 100 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Heat | 46% | 96 | 100 | |
| 18 | Bucks | 54% | 98 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 32% | 88 | 94 | |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 68% | 94 | 79 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Clippers | 51% | 94 | 89 | |
| 26 | Hornets | 49% | 93 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 36% | 94 | 96 | |
| 2 | Mavericks | 64% | 98 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 83 | 77 | |
| 23 | Jazz | 78% | 93 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 46% | 93 | 111 | |
| 13 | Warriors | 54% | 94 | 105 | |
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nets | 49% | 98 | 74 | |
| 19 | Wizards | 51% | 99 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 13% | 91 | 100 | |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 87% | 105 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 56% | 97 | 101 | |
| 25 | Bobcats | 44% | 95 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kings | 44% | 94 | 93 | |
| 8 | Timberwolves | 56% | 96 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Heat | 52% | 95 | 100 | |
| 21 | Bulls | 48% | 94 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Clippers | 28% | 89 | 87 | |
| 4 | Spurs | 72% | 96 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Warriors | 46% | 102 | 110 | |
| 15 | SuperSonics | 54% | 104 | 107 | |
Monday, December 12, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Timberwolves | 44% | 91 | 89 | |
| 11 | 76ers | 56% | 93 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 46% | 97 | 112 | |
| 24 | Knicks | 54% | 98 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 25% | 88 | 109 | |
| 2 | Mavericks | 75% | 97 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 62% | 90 | 78 | |
| 23 | Jazz | 38% | 86 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 13% | 91 | 91 | |
| 3 | Suns | 87% | 105 | 87 | |
Sunday, December 11, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 27% | 94 | 101 | |
| 6 | Heat | 73% | 102 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 61% | 93 | 109 | |
| 12 | Clippers | 39% | 90 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 25% | 93 | 100 | |
| 7 | Kings | 75% | 102 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 74% | 91 | 100 | |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 26% | 83 | 86 | |
Saturday, December 10, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 32% | 95 | 118 | |
| 18 | Wizards | 68% | 100 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 78% | 99 | 84 | |
| 29 | Hawks | 22% | 89 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 56% | 94 | 83 | |
| 28 | Magic | 44% | 92 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 76ers | 31% | 93 | 107 | |
| 7 | Nets | 69% | 99 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 40% | 97 | 111 | |
| 24 | Bobcats | 60% | 100 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Grizzlies | 45% | 87 | 66 | |
| 17 | Pacers | 55% | 89 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 27% | 88 | 82 | |
| 11 | Timberwolves | 73% | 95 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 53% | 101 | 106 | |
| 21 | Bucks | 47% | 100 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 23% | 87 | 94 | |
| 5 | Mavericks | 77% | 96 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kings | 47% | 104 | 123 | |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 53% | 105 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 46% | 99 | 91 | |
| 15 | Clippers | 54% | 100 | 101 | |