Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, January 30, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 51% | 93 | 82 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Pistons | 57% | 90 | 90 |
 | 24 | Raptors | 43% | 88 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Knicks | 40% | 95 | 92 |
 | 19 | Celtics | 60% | 98 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 23 | Heat | 62% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Bucks | 70% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 56% | 100 | 97 |
 | 18 | Lakers | 44% | 99 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Bulls | 28% | 93 | 81 |
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Thursday, January 29, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 59% | 99 | 89 | |
 | 21 | Magic | 41% | 96 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wednesday, January 28, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pistons | 55% | 93 | 106 |
| 18 | Celtics | 45% | 91 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 49% | 98 | 104 |
| 30 | Wizards | 51% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Heat | 46% | 93 | 93 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 54% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 19% | 86 | 79 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 38% | 87 | 84 |
| 25 | Raptors | 62% | 91 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 43% | 96 | 100 |
| 15 | Hornets | 57% | 98 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 29% | 95 | 88 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 71% | 102 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 52% | 97 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 23% | 93 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Mavericks | 55% | 102 | 88 |
| 20 | Jazz | 45% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 32% | 102 | 82 | |
| 11 | Lakers | 68% | 108 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 57% | 98 | 90 |
| 17 | Warriors | 43% | 96 | 97 |
Tuesday, January 27, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nets | 51% | 91 | 94 | |
| 17 | 76ers | 49% | 90 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 60% | 94 | 77 |
| 19 | Knicks | 40% | 91 | 67 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 47% | 94 | 89 |
| 27 | Hawks | 53% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 51% | 108 | 118 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 49% | 107 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 42% | 99 | 92 |
| 26 | Clippers | 58% | 101 | 102 |
Monday, January 26, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 94 | 94 |
| 30 | Wizards | 48% | 93 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 31% | 99 | 98 |
| 21 | Cavaliers | 69% | 105 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 53% | 88 | 81 |
| 24 | Heat | 47% | 87 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 60% | 96 | 92 |
| 12 | Bucks | 40% | 93 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 54% | 99 | 97 |
| 17 | Nuggets | 46% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 41% | 96 | 93 |
| 28 | Jazz | 59% | 99 | 98 |
Sunday, January 25, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 30% | 90 | 91 |
| 6 | Nets | 70% | 96 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 43% | 106 | 99 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 57% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 45% | 92 | 89 |
| 29 | Bulls | 55% | 94 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 20% | 91 | 95 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 80% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 59% | 97 | 99 |
| 21 | Magic | 41% | 95 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 22% | 86 | 91 |
| 7 | Pistons | 78% | 95 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 33% | 97 | 88 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 67% | 103 | 106 |
Saturday, January 24, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 40% | 94 | 105 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 71% | 92 | 96 |
| 30 | Wizards | 29% | 85 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Heat | 32% | 92 | 85 |
| 18 | Knicks | 68% | 97 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 46% | 92 | 87 |
| 25 | Cavaliers | 54% | 94 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hornets | 18% | 83 | 98 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 82% | 94 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 59% | 99 | 93 |
| 29 | Jazz | 41% | 96 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 23% | 99 | 97 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 77% | 108 | 102 | |
Friday, January 23, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 32% | 95 | 98 |
| 11 | 76ers | 68% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 27% | 90 | 89 |
| 18 | Celtics | 73% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 61% | 92 | 64 | |
| 25 | Heat | 39% | 89 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 53% | 96 | 96 |
| 26 | Hawks | 47% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 40% | 94 | 91 |
| 14 | Hornets | 60% | 97 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 36% | 83 | 78 |
| 5 | Pacers | 64% | 88 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 34% | 90 | 79 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 66% | 95 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 51% | 104 | 95 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 49% | 103 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 61% | 104 | 106 |
| 28 | Bulls | 39% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Raptors | 28% | 91 | 86 |
| 12 | Bucks | 72% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 72% | 95 | 86 |
| 22 | Suns | 28% | 88 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jazz | 41% | 96 | 82 |
| 23 | Clippers | 59% | 99 | 93 |
Thursday, January 22, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 71% | 103 | 95 |
| 22 | Cavaliers | 29% | 96 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lakers | 20% | 100 | 87 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 80% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 31% | 97 | 87 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 69% | 104 | 103 | |
Wednesday, January 21, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 63% | 94 | 108 |
| 24 | Raptors | 37% | 90 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 43% | 94 | 87 |
| 27 | Hawks | 57% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 39% | 89 | 92 |
| 12 | Hornets | 61% | 93 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 29% | 100 | 102 |
| 13 | Bucks | 71% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Lakers | 30% | 97 | 82 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 70% | 104 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 25% | 84 | 76 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 75% | 93 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 29% | 89 | 71 |
| 7 | Rockets | 71% | 96 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 38% | 96 | 92 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 62% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 47% | 98 | 102 |
| 25 | Clippers | 53% | 99 | 106 |
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 49% | 98 | 94 | |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 51% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 36% | 85 | 69 |
| 5 | Pacers | 64% | 89 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 47% | 93 | 86 |
| 26 | Heat | 53% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 38% | 97 | 93 | |
| 4 | Mavericks | 62% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 53% | 96 | 96 |
| 25 | Jazz | 47% | 95 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 21% | 96 | 109 |
| 1 | Kings | 79% | 106 | 104 |
Monday, January 19, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 33% | 90 | 79 |
| 18 | Knicks | 67% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 48% | 93 | 83 |
| 30 | Wizards | 52% | 94 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SuperSonics | 39% | 96 | 90 | |
| 13 | 76ers | 61% | 99 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 67% | 92 | 100 |
| 29 | Hawks | 33% | 87 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 52% | 105 | 99 |
| 23 | Magic | 48% | 104 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 46% | 87 | 77 |
| 8 | Pistons | 54% | 88 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 69% | 106 | 125 |
| 21 | Clippers | 31% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 29% | 90 | 90 | |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 71% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 45% | 92 | 83 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 55% | 93 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 46% | 93 | 85 |
| 20 | Warriors | 54% | 94 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 29% | 95 | 88 |
| 22 | Lakers | 71% | 102 | 85 |
Sunday, January 18, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 94 | 109 |
| 18 | Celtics | 36% | 90 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 95 | 92 |
| 24 | Suns | 61% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Heat | 32% | 93 | 80 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 68% | 99 | 88 |
Saturday, January 17, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 44% | 95 | 91 |
| 13 | 76ers | 56% | 96 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 47% | 90 | 76 |
| 8 | Rockets | 53% | 91 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SuperSonics | 61% | 100 | 84 | |
| 30 | Wizards | 39% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 48% | 90 | 70 |
| 28 | Hawks | 52% | 91 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 42% | 87 | 90 |
| 10 | Nets | 58% | 90 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 20% | 94 | 90 |
| 7 | Hornets | 80% | 105 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 45% | 97 | 101 |
| 27 | Bulls | 55% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pistons | 41% | 93 | 99 |
| 14 | Bucks | 59% | 96 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 28% | 89 | 102 |
| 15 | Jazz | 72% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 49% | 103 | 108 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 35% | 98 | 89 |
| 22 | Lakers | 65% | 103 | 91 |