Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, January 24, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Heat | 32% | 91 | 85 |
 | 18 | Knicks | 68% | 97 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hornets | 19% | 83 | 98 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Lakers | 59% | 99 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 10 | SuperSonics | 77% | 108 | 102 | |
Friday, January 23, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Magic | 31% | 95 | 98 |
| 11 | 76ers | 69% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 27% | 90 | 89 |
 | 18 | Celtics | 73% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 61% | 92 | 64 | |
| 25 | Heat | 39% | 89 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 53% | 96 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 14 | Hornets | 60% | 97 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5 | Pacers | 64% | 88 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Pistons | 34% | 90 | 79 |
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 66% | 95 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Mavericks | 62% | 104 | 106 |
 | 28 | Bulls | 38% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Raptors | 28% | 91 | 86 |
 | 12 | Bucks | 72% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 72% | 95 | 86 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jazz | 41% | 96 | 82 |
| 23 | Clippers | 59% | 99 | 93 |
Thursday, January 22, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 71% | 103 | 95 |
| 22 | Cavaliers | 29% | 96 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lakers | 19% | 100 | 87 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 81% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 30% | 97 | 87 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 70% | 104 | 103 | |
Wednesday, January 21, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 63% | 94 | 108 |
| 24 | Raptors | 37% | 90 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 43% | 94 | 87 |
| 27 | Hawks | 57% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 39% | 89 | 92 |
| 12 | Hornets | 61% | 93 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 29% | 100 | 102 |
| 13 | Bucks | 71% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Lakers | 30% | 97 | 82 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 70% | 104 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 26% | 85 | 76 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 74% | 93 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 29% | 89 | 71 |
| 7 | Rockets | 71% | 95 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 39% | 96 | 92 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 61% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 47% | 98 | 102 |
| 25 | Clippers | 53% | 99 | 106 |
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 49% | 98 | 94 | |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 51% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 36% | 85 | 69 |
| 5 | Pacers | 64% | 89 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 47% | 93 | 86 |
| 26 | Heat | 53% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 38% | 97 | 93 | |
| 4 | Mavericks | 62% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 53% | 96 | 96 |
| 25 | Jazz | 47% | 95 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 20% | 96 | 109 |
| 1 | Kings | 80% | 106 | 104 |
Monday, January 19, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 33% | 90 | 79 |
| 18 | Knicks | 67% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 48% | 93 | 83 |
| 30 | Wizards | 52% | 94 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SuperSonics | 40% | 96 | 90 | |
| 13 | 76ers | 60% | 99 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 67% | 92 | 100 |
| 29 | Hawks | 33% | 87 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 52% | 105 | 99 |
| 23 | Magic | 48% | 104 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 46% | 87 | 77 |
| 8 | Pistons | 54% | 89 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 69% | 106 | 125 |
| 21 | Clippers | 31% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 29% | 90 | 90 | |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 71% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 45% | 92 | 83 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 55% | 93 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 46% | 93 | 85 |
| 20 | Warriors | 54% | 94 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 30% | 95 | 88 |
| 22 | Lakers | 70% | 102 | 85 |
Sunday, January 18, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 94 | 109 |
| 18 | Celtics | 36% | 90 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 95 | 92 |
| 24 | Suns | 61% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Heat | 32% | 93 | 80 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 68% | 99 | 88 |
Saturday, January 17, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 45% | 95 | 91 |
| 13 | 76ers | 55% | 96 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 47% | 90 | 76 |
| 8 | Rockets | 53% | 91 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SuperSonics | 61% | 100 | 84 | |
| 30 | Wizards | 39% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 47% | 90 | 70 |
| 28 | Hawks | 53% | 91 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 42% | 87 | 90 |
| 10 | Nets | 58% | 90 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 20% | 94 | 90 |
| 7 | Hornets | 80% | 105 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 45% | 97 | 101 |
| 27 | Bulls | 55% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pistons | 41% | 93 | 99 |
| 14 | Bucks | 59% | 96 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 29% | 89 | 102 |
| 15 | Jazz | 71% | 96 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 49% | 102 | 108 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 35% | 98 | 89 |
| 22 | Lakers | 65% | 103 | 91 |
Friday, January 16, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celtics | 51% | 102 | 118 |
| 23 | Magic | 49% | 101 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 47% | 86 | 79 |
| 5 | Pacers | 53% | 87 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SuperSonics | 49% | 103 | 88 | |
| 20 | Knicks | 51% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 18% | 84 | 77 |
| 10 | Pistons | 82% | 96 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 54% | 107 | 91 |
| 18 | Nuggets | 46% | 105 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 46% | 94 | 93 |
| 24 | Suns | 54% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 32% | 93 | 87 |
| 21 | Clippers | 68% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Lakers | 15% | 98 | 83 |
| 1 | Kings | 85% | 111 | 103 |
Thursday, January 15, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 24% | 87 | 78 |
| 9 | Hornets | 76% | 96 | 74 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 36% | 94 | 83 | |
| 12 | Bucks | 64% | 98 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 24% | 94 | 93 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 76% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Heat | 32% | 89 | 85 |
| 15 | Jazz | 68% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Suns | 33% | 93 | 105 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 33% | 92 | 102 |
| 18 | Warriors | 67% | 97 | 119 |
Wednesday, January 14, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 48% | 90 | 95 |
| 16 | Celtics | 52% | 91 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 15% | 84 | 78 |
| 5 | Pacers | 85% | 97 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 33% | 99 | 110 |
| 20 | Knicks | 67% | 105 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 16% | 84 | 103 |
| 11 | Nets | 84% | 96 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 29% | 85 | 91 |
| 8 | Pistons | 71% | 92 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Timberwolves | 37% | 88 | 100 |
| 4 | Spurs | 63% | 93 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 27% | 97 | 122 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 73% | 105 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 42% | 100 | 71 |
| 22 | Lakers | 58% | 103 | 97 |
Tuesday, January 13, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 68% | 91 | 93 |
| 29 | Wizards | 32% | 85 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 75% | 94 | 77 |
| 30 | Hawks | 25% | 85 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 48% | 95 | 94 |
| 11 | Hornets | 52% | 96 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 38% | 97 | 103 |
| 13 | Bucks | 62% | 101 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 64% | 94 | 105 |
| 28 | Bulls | 36% | 90 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 33% | 93 | 80 |
| 17 | Jazz | 67% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 53% | 98 | 105 |
| 26 | Suns | 47% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Heat | 13% | 92 | 86 |
| 1 | Kings | 87% | 107 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 20% | 95 | 104 |
| 6 | SuperSonics | 80% | 105 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 98 | 96 |
| 22 | Clippers | 56% | 100 | 103 |
Monday, January 12, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 48% | 103 | 127 |
| 21 | Knicks | 52% | 104 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 52% | 99 | 87 |
| 23 | Magic | 48% | 98 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 29% | 96 | 79 |
| 15 | Lakers | 71% | 103 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 42% | 99 | 115 |
| 18 | Warriors | 58% | 102 | 113 |
Sunday, January 11, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 43% | 92 | 72 |
| 22 | Raptors | 57% | 94 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 44% | 97 | 102 |
| 7 | Pistons | 56% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 32% | 87 | 97 |
| 11 | Rockets | 68% | 93 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 17% | 98 | 106 |
| 1 | Kings | 83% | 110 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 57% | 102 | 108 |
| 25 | Clippers | 43% | 100 | 107 |