Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 49% | 98 | 94 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Pistons | 36% | 85 | 69 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Celtics | 47% | 93 | 86 |
 | 26 | Heat | 53% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 38% | 97 | 93 | |
 | 4 | Mavericks | 62% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Monday, January 19, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Raptors | 33% | 90 | 79 |
 | 18 | Knicks | 67% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Bulls | 48% | 93 | 83 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SuperSonics | 39% | 96 | 90 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 67% | 92 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Bucks | 52% | 105 | 99 |
 | 23 | Magic | 48% | 104 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 8 | Pistons | 54% | 88 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 69% | 106 | 125 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 29% | 90 | 90 | |
 | 3 | Timberwolves | 71% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 46% | 93 | 85 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Lakers | 71% | 102 | 85 |
Sunday, January 18, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 94 | 109 |
| 18 | Celtics | 36% | 90 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 95 | 92 |
| 24 | Suns | 61% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Heat | 32% | 93 | 80 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 68% | 99 | 88 |
Saturday, January 17, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 44% | 95 | 91 |
| 13 | 76ers | 56% | 96 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 47% | 90 | 76 |
| 8 | Rockets | 53% | 91 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SuperSonics | 61% | 100 | 84 | |
| 30 | Wizards | 39% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 48% | 90 | 70 |
| 28 | Hawks | 52% | 91 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 42% | 87 | 90 |
| 10 | Nets | 58% | 90 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 20% | 94 | 90 |
| 7 | Hornets | 80% | 105 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 45% | 97 | 101 |
| 27 | Bulls | 55% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pistons | 41% | 93 | 99 |
| 14 | Bucks | 59% | 96 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 28% | 89 | 102 |
| 15 | Jazz | 72% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 49% | 103 | 108 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 35% | 98 | 89 |
| 22 | Lakers | 65% | 103 | 91 |
Friday, January 16, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celtics | 51% | 102 | 118 |
| 23 | Magic | 49% | 101 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 47% | 86 | 79 |
| 5 | Pacers | 53% | 87 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SuperSonics | 49% | 102 | 88 | |
| 20 | Knicks | 51% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 18% | 84 | 77 |
| 10 | Pistons | 82% | 96 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 54% | 107 | 91 |
| 18 | Nuggets | 46% | 105 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 46% | 94 | 93 |
| 24 | Suns | 54% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 32% | 93 | 87 |
| 21 | Clippers | 68% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Lakers | 15% | 98 | 83 |
| 1 | Kings | 85% | 111 | 103 |
Thursday, January 15, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 24% | 88 | 78 |
| 9 | Hornets | 76% | 96 | 74 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 36% | 94 | 83 | |
| 12 | Bucks | 64% | 98 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 24% | 94 | 93 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 76% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Heat | 32% | 89 | 85 |
| 15 | Jazz | 68% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Suns | 33% | 93 | 105 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 33% | 92 | 102 |
| 18 | Warriors | 67% | 97 | 119 |
Wednesday, January 14, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 49% | 90 | 95 |
| 16 | Celtics | 51% | 91 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 15% | 84 | 78 |
| 5 | Pacers | 85% | 97 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 33% | 100 | 110 |
| 20 | Knicks | 67% | 105 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 16% | 84 | 103 |
| 11 | Nets | 84% | 96 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 28% | 85 | 91 |
| 8 | Pistons | 72% | 92 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Timberwolves | 37% | 89 | 100 |
| 4 | Spurs | 63% | 93 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 28% | 97 | 122 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 72% | 105 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 41% | 100 | 71 |
| 22 | Lakers | 59% | 102 | 97 |
Tuesday, January 13, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 68% | 91 | 93 |
| 29 | Wizards | 32% | 86 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 75% | 94 | 77 |
| 30 | Hawks | 25% | 85 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 48% | 95 | 94 |
| 11 | Hornets | 52% | 96 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 38% | 97 | 103 |
| 13 | Bucks | 62% | 100 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 64% | 94 | 105 |
| 28 | Bulls | 36% | 90 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 34% | 93 | 80 |
| 17 | Jazz | 66% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 53% | 98 | 105 |
| 26 | Suns | 47% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Heat | 13% | 92 | 86 |
| 1 | Kings | 87% | 107 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 20% | 95 | 104 |
| 6 | SuperSonics | 80% | 105 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 98 | 96 |
| 22 | Clippers | 56% | 100 | 103 |
Monday, January 12, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 47% | 103 | 127 |
| 21 | Knicks | 53% | 104 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 52% | 99 | 87 |
| 23 | Magic | 48% | 98 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 29% | 96 | 79 |
| 15 | Lakers | 71% | 103 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 42% | 99 | 115 |
| 18 | Warriors | 58% | 101 | 113 |
Sunday, January 11, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 43% | 92 | 72 |
| 22 | Raptors | 57% | 94 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 44% | 97 | 102 |
| 7 | Pistons | 56% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 31% | 87 | 97 |
| 11 | Rockets | 69% | 93 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 17% | 98 | 106 |
| 1 | Kings | 83% | 110 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 57% | 102 | 108 |
| 25 | Clippers | 43% | 100 | 107 |
Saturday, January 10, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 57% | 92 | 87 |
| 29 | Wizards | 43% | 90 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 43% | 98 | 88 |
| 21 | Knicks | 57% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Heat | 15% | 87 | 77 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 85% | 100 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 59% | 97 | 84 | |
| 28 | Bulls | 41% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pacers | 37% | 84 | 88 |
| 5 | Spurs | 63% | 89 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hawks | 22% | 89 | 71 |
| 14 | Jazz | 78% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SuperSonics | 43% | 102 | 110 | |
| 18 | Warriors | 57% | 104 | 113 |
Friday, January 9, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nets | 56% | 90 | 81 | |
| 19 | 76ers | 44% | 88 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 43% | 99 | 92 |
| 25 | Magic | 57% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 34% | 94 | 78 |
| 21 | Raptors | 66% | 99 | 68 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 35% | 92 | 82 |
| 15 | Celtics | 65% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 47% | 90 | 94 |
| 12 | Hornets | 53% | 91 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 36% | 97 | 92 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 64% | 102 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 96 | 87 |
| 29 | Bulls | 56% | 98 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Heat | 26% | 92 | 94 |
| 13 | Bucks | 74% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 42% | 95 | 96 |
| 20 | Nuggets | 58% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 73% | 104 | 113 |
| 24 | Suns | 27% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hawks | 29% | 96 | 67 |
| 17 | Lakers | 71% | 103 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 39% | 100 | 116 |
| 7 | SuperSonics | 61% | 103 | 122 | |
Thursday, January 8, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 42% | 90 | 111 |
| 16 | Knicks | 58% | 93 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 23% | 94 | 75 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 77% | 104 | 96 |
Wednesday, January 7, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 25% | 96 | 93 |
| 16 | Celtics | 75% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 27% | 93 | 80 |
| 15 | 76ers | 73% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 32% | 89 | 69 |
| 22 | Raptors | 68% | 95 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 40% | 92 | 95 |
| 27 | Heat | 60% | 95 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 38% | 85 | 66 |
| 7 | Pistons | 62% | 89 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 19% | 90 | 87 |
| 10 | Hornets | 81% | 101 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Suns | 27% | 94 | 87 |
| 13 | Bucks | 73% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 22% | 100 | 99 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 78% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Lakers | 38% | 101 | 91 |
| 20 | Nuggets | 62% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 51% | 106 | 93 |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 49% | 105 | 104 | |