Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 14 | Cavaliers | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Timberwolves | 82 | ||
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23061922;}%20.st1{fill:%23CE1141;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M249.8,189.4l0.4-33.3c0-15.6-16.3-18.2-28.3-18.1c8-2.7,17.7-7.2,24.7-14.8c7.4-6.8,12.6-16.4,11.7-29.8%20c-1.5-22.6-29.8-33.8-76.6-29.3c-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.2-2.3,0.2c-2.2-16.7-5.6-32.9-10.8-47.8l-2.3,2.3c-6.2,19.3-9.9,34.7-12.1,49%20c-27.9,4.8-47.5,11.2-47.5,11.2l-2.3,2.3c0,0,22.6-2,48.3-1.7c-2.9,29.3,0.1,57.1,0,109.6c-41.6-1.2-78.1,5.7-87,16.9%20c-2.9,2.4-4.5,5.1-4.4,7.9c0.5,12.7,38.3,24.4,91.4,28.9l2.3,72.2l2.3-2.3l3.7-49c0-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.3-2.1c1.1,0.2,2.2,1.6,2.2,4.1%20l1.6,64.5l2.3-2.3l4-52.5c0-1.2,0.1-2.1,0.3-2.9c1.1,0.2,2.2,1.8,2.1,4.8l1.8,67.2l2.3-2.3l3.2-97.8c6.1,0.2,12.3,0.3,18.7,0.3%20c6.7,0,13.3-0.1,19.8-0.3l3.2,102l2.3-2.3l2.7-53.4c0-1.1,0.1-2,0.3-2.7c1,0.2,2,1.8,2,4.6l2.8,74.9l2.3-2.3l2.8-64.7%20c0-0.9,0.2-1.7,0.4-2.3c1.3,0,2.7,1.6,2.7,4.7l2.3,85.7l2.3-2.3l3.4-143.6c45.4-4,79.9-13.1,88.5-23.7c2.8-2.4,4.4-4.9,4.4-7.4%20C341.4,197.9,299.3,187.1,249.8,189.4%20M152.3,227.9c-36.4-3.5-61-10.9-61-20.2c0-0.7,0.2-1.3,0.6-2c8.5-6,34.7-9.8,60.9-13.7%20c0,10.3-0.2,21.5-0.5,33.8L152.3,227.9z%20M226.5,102.5c1.4,10.3-1.6,18.1-6.9,24c-9.5,8.6-24.4,12.5-36.5,14.3%20c0.2-19.4-0.1-39.6-1.8-59.4C204.7,83.9,224.8,89.8,226.5,102.5%20M219.6,229.9c-5.7,0.2-11.5,0.3-17.5,0.3c-7,0-13.9-0.1-20.5-0.4%20l0.3-8.3c-0.6-21,0.7-47.4,1.1-75.6c17.1,2,37.6,6.8,37.3,18.8L219.6,229.9z%20M310.2,213.7c-8.5,6.7-31,11.9-60.8,14.5l0.4-35.8%20c34.1,4.4,61.8,9.4,61.8,17.6C311.6,211.2,311.1,212.5,310.2,213.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M342,211.9c-0.6-14-42.7-24.8-92.2-22.4l0.4-33.3c-0.1-20.6-28.3-18.6-37.8-17.3c11.1-2,48.2-11.3,45.9-45.3%20c-1.5-22.6-29.8-33.8-76.6-29.3c-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.2-2.3,0.2c-2.2-16.7-5.6-32.9-10.8-47.8c-6.5,20.2-10.3,36.1-12.4,50.9%20c-29,4.8-49.5,11.6-49.5,11.6s22.6-2,48.3-1.7c-2.9,29.7,0.1,57.9,0,112c-49.2-1.7-91.9,7.8-91.4,22.4%20c0.4,12.7,38.3,24.4,91.4,28.9l2.3,72.2l3.7-49c0.1-6.1,4.7-5.5,4.7-0.3l1.7,64.5l4-52.5c-0.1-7.1,4.9-6.7,4.7-0.4l1.8,67.2%20l3.2-100.2c6.8,0.2,13.8,0.4,20.9,0.4c6.7,0,13.3-0.1,19.8-0.3l3.2,102l2.7-53.4c0-6.8,4.6-6.5,4.6-0.4l2.8,74.9l2.8-64.7%20c0.2-6.4,5.3-6.1,5.4,0l2.3,85.7l3.4-145.6v-0.1C303,236.3,342,224.6,342,211.9%20M228.8,100.2c3.8,28.2-25,37.5-45.7,40.6%20c0.2-20.3-0.1-41.4-2-62C205.5,81.2,227,87,228.8,100.2%20M91.3,207.7c0-8.6,31.9-13.2,63.8-18c0,10.3-0.2,21.5-0.5,33.8l0.1,4.7%20C116.9,224.7,91.3,217.2,91.3,207.7%20M181.6,229.8l0.3-8.3c-0.6-21.7,0.8-49,1.1-78.1c17.4,1.8,39.9,6.5,39.5,19.1l-0.6,67.4%20c-6.4,0.2-13,0.3-19.8,0.3C195.1,230.1,188.3,230,181.6,229.8%20M249.4,228.2l0.5-38.4c35.1,4.5,64,9.6,64,17.9%20C313.9,217.2,287.5,224.8,249.4,228.2'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 1 | Rockets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 4 | Jazz | 102 | ||
 | 10 | Thunder | 95 | ||
Tuesday, April 17, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 5 | Raptors | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Bucks | 106 | ||
 | 11 | Celtics | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Pelicans | 111 | ||
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Monday, April 16, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Heat | 113 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, April 15, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 107 | ||
| 13 | Celtics | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 98 | ||
| 14 | Cavaliers | 80 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Timberwolves | 101 | ||
| 1 | Rockets | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 108 | ||
| 10 | Thunder | 116 | ||
Saturday, April 14, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wizards | 106 | ||
| 5 | Raptors | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 103 | ||
| 6 | 76ers | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 92 | ||
| 3 | Warriors | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pelicans | 97 | ||
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 95 | ||
Wednesday, April 11, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Nets | 43% | 104 | 97 |
| 11 | Celtics | 57% | 106 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Knicks | 110 | ||
| 12 | Cavaliers | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 59% | 107 | 109 |
| 16 | Heat | 41% | 104 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wizards | 92 | ||
 | 26 | Magic | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 39% | 108 | 95 |
| 5 | 76ers | 61% | 112 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Pistons | 119 | ||
 | 28 | Bulls | 87 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 10 | Timberwolves | 52% | 115 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 98 | ||
| 9 | Pelicans | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 8 | Thunder | 86% | 113 | 137 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Lakers | 115 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 44% | 102 | 93 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 104 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rockets | 83 | ||
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Tuesday, April 10, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Hornets | 49% | 108 | 119 |
| 16 | Pacers | 51% | 109 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 121 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Celtics | 39% | 102 | 101 |
| 14 | Wizards | 61% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Mavericks | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 43% | 107 | 79 |
| 4 | Jazz | 57% | 109 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rockets | 105 | ||
| 20 | Lakers | 99 | ||
Monday, April 9, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 108 | ||
| 19 | Pistons | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 35% | 107 | 105 |
| 22 | Nets | 65% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 115 | ||
| 17 | Heat | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 67% | 116 | 123 |
| 24 | Knicks | 33% | 110 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 86 | ||
| 15 | Bucks | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Grizzlies | 14% | 101 | 94 |
| 9 | Timberwolves | 86% | 116 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 85 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 108 | 82 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 63% | 113 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pelicans | 113 | ||
| 16 | Clippers | 100 | ||
Sunday, April 8, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 49% | 108 | 123 |
| 20 | Hornets | 51% | 109 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Mavericks | 97 | ||
| 6 | 76ers | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pistons | 68% | 105 | 117 |
| 25 | Grizzlies | 32% | 99 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 101 | ||
| 4 | Raptors | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 65% | 108 | 112 |
| 21 | Lakers | 35% | 103 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 112 | ||
| 11 | Celtics | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 79% | 118 | 117 |
| 30 | Suns | 21% | 107 | 100 |
Saturday, April 7, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 49% | 114 | 134 |
| 16 | Clippers | 51% | 115 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 115 | ||
| 24 | Knicks | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 55% | 111 | 124 |
| 27 | Bulls | 45% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 108 | ||
| 1 | Rockets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pelicans | 25% | 108 | 126 |
| 2 | Warriors | 75% | 117 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 105 | ||
| 3 | Spurs | 116 | ||
Friday, April 6, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Mavericks | 38% | 99 | 106 |
| 19 | Pistons | 62% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hornets | 137 | ||
| 26 | Magic | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 33% | 109 | 130 |
| 6 | 76ers | 67% | 115 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 103 | ||
| 14 | Wizards | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 36% | 100 | 104 |
| 10 | Celtics | 64% | 105 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 98 | ||
| 24 | Knicks | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 25% | 104 | 73 |
| 4 | Raptors | 75% | 113 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 94 | ||
| 25 | Grizzlies | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pelicans | 72% | 115 | 122 |
| 30 | Suns | 28% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Timberwolves | 113 | ||
| 20 | Lakers | 96 | ||
Thursday, April 5, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 52% | 110 | 106 |
| 15 | Pacers | 48% | 109 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 115 | ||
| 11 | Cavaliers | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 101 | 94 |
| 1 | Rockets | 78% | 112 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 119 | ||
| 17 | Bucks | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Clippers | 33% | 104 | 95 |
| 4 | Jazz | 67% | 110 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Timberwolves | 96 | ||
| 7 | Nuggets | 100 | ||