Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, June 7, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Bucks | 40% | 115 | 86 |
 | 4 | Nets | 60% | 119 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, June 6, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Mavericks | 32% | 107 | 111 |
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Saturday, June 5, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 30% | 115 | 107 |
| 1 | Nets | 70% | 123 | 115 |
Friday, June 4, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Clippers | 48% | 111 | 104 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 52% | 112 | 97 |
Thursday, June 3, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 37% | 112 | 126 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 44% | 104 | 113 |
 | 11 | Lakers | 56% | 106 | 100 |
Wednesday, June 2, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 12 | 76ers | 68% | 115 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 48% | 106 | 103 |
 | 15 | Knicks | 52% | 107 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 2 | Jazz | 77% | 117 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 31% | 107 | 105 |
| 3 | Clippers | 69% | 114 | 100 |
Tuesday, June 1, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Celtics | 19% | 109 | 109 |
| 1 | Nets | 81% | 122 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Blazers | 39% | 110 | 140 |
| 10 | Nuggets | 61% | 114 | 147 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 40% | 104 | 85 |
| 5 | Suns | 60% | 108 | 115 |
Monday, May 31, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 76ers | 57% | 114 | 114 |
| 18 | Wizards | 43% | 112 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 58% | 112 | 120 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 42% | 110 | 113 |
Sunday, May 30, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Knicks | 33% | 104 | 96 |
| 10 | Hawks | 67% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 37% | 104 | 100 |
| 3 | Lakers | 63% | 109 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nets | 63% | 116 | 141 |
| 16 | Celtics | 37% | 111 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 44% | 110 | 106 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 56% | 112 | 81 |
Saturday, May 29, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bucks | 48% | 108 | 120 |
 | 14 | Heat | 52% | 109 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 38% | 112 | 95 |
| 6 | Blazers | 62% | 116 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 56% | 114 | 132 |
| 18 | Wizards | 44% | 112 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 57% | 112 | 121 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 43% | 110 | 111 |
Friday, May 28, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Knicks | 31% | 104 | 94 |
| 11 | Hawks | 69% | 111 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nets | 53% | 114 | 119 |
| 15 | Celtics | 47% | 113 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 47% | 111 | 118 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 53% | 112 | 108 |
Thursday, May 27, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 48% | 109 | 113 |
| 13 | Heat | 52% | 110 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 40% | 105 | 95 |
| 3 | Lakers | 60% | 109 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nuggets | 36% | 111 | 120 |
| 7 | Blazers | 64% | 117 | 115 |
Wednesday, May 26, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 28% | 109 | 95 |
| 8 | 76ers | 72% | 117 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 45% | 106 | 92 |
| 16 | Knicks | 55% | 108 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 23% | 105 | 129 |
| 1 | Jazz | 77% | 115 | 141 |
Tuesday, May 25, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 28% | 111 | 108 |
| 1 | Nets | 72% | 119 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 42% | 106 | 109 |
| 5 | Suns | 58% | 109 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 29% | 106 | 127 |
| 3 | Clippers | 71% | 114 | 121 |
Monday, May 24, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 33% | 106 | 98 |
| 5 | Bucks | 67% | 113 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Blazers | 41% | 112 | 109 |
| 10 | Nuggets | 59% | 115 | 128 |
Sunday, May 23, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 28% | 108 | 118 |
| 10 | 76ers | 72% | 117 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 49% | 106 | 90 |
| 14 | Suns | 51% | 107 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 37% | 102 | 107 |
| 15 | Knicks | 63% | 107 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 27% | 105 | 112 |
| 4 | Jazz | 73% | 113 | 109 |
Saturday, May 22, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Heat | 31% | 106 | 107 |
| 9 | Bucks | 69% | 113 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 34% | 107 | 113 |
| 4 | Clippers | 66% | 113 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 32% | 110 | 93 |
| 5 | Nets | 68% | 117 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Blazers | 48% | 112 | 123 |
| 14 | Nuggets | 52% | 113 | 109 |
Friday, May 21, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 39% | 112 | 117 |
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 17 | Wizards | 54% | 120 | 142 |
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 13 | Grizzlies | 69% | 116 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 38% | 108 | 100 |
| 3 | Lakers | 62% | 112 | 103 |
Tuesday, May 18, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Hornets | 44% | 114 | 117 |
| 17 | Pacers | 56% | 116 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 42% | 114 | 100 |
| 14 | Celtics | 58% | 117 | 118 |
Sunday, May 16, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 34% | 103 | 92 |
| 11 | Knicks | 66% | 110 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 54% | 111 | 125 |
 | 26 | Raptors | 46% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hornets | 37% | 115 | 110 |
| 15 | Wizards | 63% | 120 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 66% | 115 | 123 |
| 23 | Spurs | 34% | 109 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 45% | 112 | 101 |
| 12 | Warriors | 55% | 114 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 16 | Hawks | 68% | 121 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 2 | Nets | 83% | 122 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Magic | 20% | 102 | 117 |
| 20 | 76ers | 80% | 114 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 65% | 108 | 120 |
 | 27 | Pistons | 35% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 65% | 115 | 112 |
 | 21 | Bulls | 35% | 109 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 62% | 119 | 121 |
 | 17 | Timberwolves | 38% | 114 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 64% | 110 | 110 |
 | 22 | Pelicans | 36% | 105 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clippers | 90% | 119 | 112 |
 | 30 | Thunder | 10% | 100 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 39% | 113 | 116 |
| 4 | Blazers | 61% | 117 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jazz | 76% | 119 | 121 |
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Saturday, May 15, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 29% | 112 | 91 |
| 4 | Nets | 71% | 120 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 58% | 111 | 122 |
| 16 | Pacers | 42% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hornets | 35% | 105 | 109 |
| 11 | Knicks | 65% | 110 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 46% | 114 | 124 |
| 15 | Timberwolves | 54% | 116 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 63% | 116 | 140 |
| 20 | Spurs | 37% | 111 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 35% | 110 | 108 |
| 1 | Bucks | 65% | 116 | 122 |
Friday, May 14, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 32% | 110 | 105 |
| 21 | Wizards | 68% | 117 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 72% | 112 | 104 |
| 28 | Pistons | 28% | 104 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 8% | 99 | 97 |
| 5 | 76ers | 92% | 118 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 90% | 119 | 109 |
| 30 | Thunder | 10% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 27% | 108 | 106 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 73% | 117 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 19% | 103 | 110 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 81% | 116 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Clippers | 56% | 112 | 115 |
| 25 | Rockets | 44% | 110 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 25% | 106 | 122 |
| 7 | Warriors | 75% | 116 | 125 |
Thursday, May 13, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clippers | 70% | 115 | 113 |
| 22 | Hornets | 30% | 107 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 61% | 118 | 142 |
| 17 | Pacers | 39% | 114 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Spurs | 32% | 103 | 98 |
| 16 | Knicks | 68% | 110 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 14% | 104 | 93 |
| 9 | Hawks | 86% | 120 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 76ers | 51% | 111 | 94 |
| 13 | Heat | 49% | 110 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 29% | 110 | 110 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 71% | 118 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 31% | 107 | 102 |
| 15 | Bulls | 69% | 114 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 57% | 114 | 114 |
| 18 | Timberwolves | 43% | 111 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Blazers | 35% | 116 | 117 |
| 4 | Suns | 65% | 121 | 118 |
Wednesday, May 12, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 33% | 114 | 116 |
| 9 | Hawks | 67% | 121 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Spurs | 34% | 111 | 116 |
| 8 | Nets | 66% | 117 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 61% | 112 | 94 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 39% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 35% | 108 | 107 |
| 13 | Mavericks | 65% | 113 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Blazers | 39% | 113 | 105 |
| 4 | Jazz | 61% | 117 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 36% | 105 | 122 |
| 19 | Lakers | 64% | 111 | 124 |
Tuesday, May 11, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 63% | 114 | 117 |
| 23 | Hornets | 37% | 109 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Timberwolves | 57% | 112 | 119 |
| 27 | Pistons | 43% | 110 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 43% | 108 | 129 |
| 11 | Celtics | 57% | 111 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clippers | 79% | 115 | 115 |
| 26 | Raptors | 21% | 103 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 60% | 114 | 94 |
| 18 | Pacers | 40% | 110 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 54% | 117 | 115 |
| 15 | Bulls | 46% | 115 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 52% | 112 | 104 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 48% | 111 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 11% | 103 | 102 |
| 2 | Bucks | 89% | 121 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 52% | 114 | 116 |
| 7 | Warriors | 48% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 26% | 107 | 106 |
| 22 | Kings | 74% | 116 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Knicks | 40% | 100 | 99 |
| 12 | Lakers | 60% | 103 | 101 |