Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, May 21, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 39% | 112 | 117 | |
| 6 | Warriors | 61% | 116 | 112 | |
Thursday, May 20, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 46% | 118 | 115 | |
| 17 | Wizards | 54% | 120 | 142 | |
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Spurs | 31% | 109 | 96 | |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 69% | 116 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 38% | 108 | 100 | |
| 3 | Lakers | 62% | 112 | 103 | |
Tuesday, May 18, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hornets | 44% | 114 | 117 | |
| 17 | Pacers | 56% | 116 | 144 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 42% | 114 | 100 | |
| 14 | Celtics | 58% | 117 | 118 | |
Sunday, May 16, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 34% | 103 | 92 | |
| 11 | Knicks | 66% | 110 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 54% | 111 | 125 | |
| 26 | Raptors | 46% | 110 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hornets | 37% | 115 | 110 | |
| 15 | Wizards | 63% | 120 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 66% | 115 | 123 | |
| 23 | Spurs | 34% | 109 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 45% | 112 | 101 | |
| 12 | Warriors | 55% | 114 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 17% | 109 | 109 | |
| 2 | Nets | 83% | 122 | 123 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Rockets | 32% | 115 | 95 | |
| 16 | Hawks | 68% | 121 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 20% | 102 | 117 | |
| 20 | 76ers | 80% | 114 | 128 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 65% | 108 | 120 | |
| 27 | Pistons | 35% | 103 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 65% | 115 | 112 | |
| 21 | Bulls | 35% | 109 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 62% | 119 | 121 | |
| 17 | Timberwolves | 38% | 114 | 136 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 64% | 110 | 110 | |
| 22 | Pelicans | 36% | 105 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 39% | 113 | 116 | |
| 4 | Blazers | 61% | 117 | 132 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jazz | 76% | 119 | 121 | |
| 25 | Kings | 24% | 108 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clippers | 90% | 119 | 112 | |
| 30 | Thunder | 10% | 100 | 117 | |
Saturday, May 15, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 29% | 112 | 91 | |
| 4 | Nets | 71% | 120 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 58% | 111 | 122 | |
| 16 | Pacers | 42% | 108 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hornets | 35% | 105 | 109 | |
| 11 | Knicks | 65% | 110 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 63% | 116 | 140 | |
| 20 | Spurs | 37% | 111 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 46% | 114 | 124 | |
| 15 | Timberwolves | 54% | 116 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 35% | 110 | 108 | |
| 1 | Bucks | 65% | 116 | 122 | |
Friday, May 14, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 32% | 110 | 105 | |
| 21 | Wizards | 68% | 117 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 8% | 99 | 97 | |
| 5 | 76ers | 92% | 118 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 72% | 112 | 104 | |
| 28 | Pistons | 28% | 104 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 90% | 119 | 109 | |
| 30 | Thunder | 10% | 101 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 27% | 108 | 106 | |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 73% | 117 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 19% | 103 | 110 | |
| 10 | Mavericks | 81% | 116 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Clippers | 56% | 112 | 115 | |
| 25 | Rockets | 44% | 110 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 25% | 106 | 122 | |
| 7 | Warriors | 75% | 116 | 125 | |
Thursday, May 13, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 61% | 118 | 142 | |
| 17 | Pacers | 39% | 114 | 133 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clippers | 70% | 115 | 113 | |
| 22 | Hornets | 30% | 107 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 76ers | 51% | 111 | 94 | |
| 13 | Heat | 49% | 110 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 14% | 104 | 93 | |
| 9 | Hawks | 86% | 120 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Spurs | 32% | 103 | 98 | |
| 16 | Knicks | 68% | 110 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 57% | 114 | 114 | |
| 18 | Timberwolves | 43% | 111 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 31% | 107 | 102 | |
| 15 | Bulls | 69% | 114 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 29% | 110 | 110 | |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 71% | 118 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Blazers | 35% | 116 | 117 | |
| 4 | Suns | 65% | 121 | 118 | |
Wednesday, May 12, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 33% | 114 | 116 | |
| 9 | Hawks | 67% | 121 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 61% | 112 | 94 | |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 39% | 108 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Spurs | 34% | 111 | 116 | |
| 8 | Nets | 66% | 117 | 128 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 35% | 108 | 107 | |
| 13 | Mavericks | 65% | 113 | 125 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Blazers | 39% | 113 | 105 | |
| 4 | Jazz | 61% | 117 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 36% | 105 | 122 | |
| 19 | Lakers | 64% | 111 | 124 | |
Tuesday, May 11, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 63% | 114 | 117 | |
| 23 | Hornets | 37% | 109 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Timberwolves | 57% | 112 | 119 | |
| 27 | Pistons | 43% | 110 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 43% | 108 | 129 | |
| 11 | Celtics | 57% | 111 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clippers | 79% | 115 | 115 | |
| 26 | Raptors | 21% | 103 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 60% | 114 | 94 | |
| 18 | Pacers | 40% | 110 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 54% | 117 | 115 | |
| 15 | Bulls | 46% | 115 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 52% | 112 | 104 | |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 48% | 111 | 133 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 11% | 103 | 102 | |
| 2 | Bucks | 89% | 121 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 52% | 114 | 116 | |
| 7 | Warriors | 48% | 113 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 26% | 107 | 106 | |
| 22 | Kings | 74% | 116 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Knicks | 40% | 100 | 99 | |
| 12 | Lakers | 60% | 103 | 101 | |
Monday, May 10, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 69% | 116 | 111 | |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 31% | 109 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 29% | 112 | 124 | |
| 8 | Hawks | 71% | 120 | 125 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pelicans | 26% | 106 | 110 | |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 74% | 115 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bucks | 65% | 116 | 125 | |
| 20 | Spurs | 35% | 110 | 146 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 19% | 111 | 129 | |
| 4 | Blazers | 81% | 124 | 140 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jazz | 51% | 113 | 116 | |
| 9 | Warriors | 49% | 112 | 119 | |
Sunday, May 9, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 42% | 108 | 130 | |
| 10 | Celtics | 58% | 111 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 23% | 101 | 106 | |
| 1 | Clippers | 77% | 111 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 48% | 109 | 112 | |
| 24 | Hornets | 52% | 110 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 68% | 114 | 124 | |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 32% | 107 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Timberwolves | 71% | 117 | 128 | |
| 29 | Magic | 29% | 109 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 65% | 113 | 108 | |
| 25 | Pistons | 35% | 107 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 55% | 108 | 110 | |
| 15 | Lakers | 45% | 106 | 123 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 17% | 105 | 98 | |
| 22 | Kings | 83% | 118 | 126 | |
Saturday, May 8, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 46% | 117 | 133 | |
| 20 | Pacers | 54% | 119 | 132 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 19% | 102 | 104 | |
| 2 | 76ers | 81% | 114 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 62% | 112 | 109 | |
| 25 | Raptors | 38% | 107 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Spurs | 25% | 109 | 102 | |
| 5 | Blazers | 75% | 119 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 16% | 103 | 97 | |
| 9 | Warriors | 84% | 117 | 136 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Rockets | 15% | 105 | 116 | |
| 4 | Jazz | 85% | 120 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 45% | 114 | 125 | |
| 6 | Nuggets | 55% | 116 | 119 | |