Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, May 9, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Heat | 42% | 108 | 130 |
 | 7 | Celtics | 58% | 111 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Knicks | 23% | 101 | 106 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
 | 24 | Hornets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Mavericks | 70% | 115 | 124 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Timberwolves | 128 | ||
 | 30 | Magic | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Bulls | 65% | 112 | 108 |
 | 27 | Pistons | 35% | 107 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Lakers | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Thunder | 17% | 104 | 98 |
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Saturday, May 8, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 19% | 102 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Raptors | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Nets | 46% | 114 | 125 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 15% | 102 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, May 7, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 99 | ||
| 18 | Bulls | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 21% | 103 | 107 |
| 5 | 76ers | 79% | 115 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 112 | ||
| 24 | Hornets | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 36% | 110 | 112 |
| 12 | Heat | 64% | 116 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 133 | ||
 | 6 | Bucks | 141 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 26% | 107 | 90 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 74% | 116 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 120 | ||
| 1 | Jazz | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 31% | 105 | 105 |
| 8 | Suns | 69% | 112 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 101 | ||
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Spurs | 47% | 111 | 113 |
| 23 | Kings | 53% | 112 | 104 |
Thursday, May 6, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 120 | ||
| 23 | Hornets | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 41% | 112 | 131 |
| 12 | Raptors | 59% | 115 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nets | 109 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 60% | 113 | 97 |
| 27 | Pistons | 40% | 109 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 17 | Pacers | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 16% | 102 | 97 |
| 14 | Warriors | 84% | 116 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 94 | ||
| 2 | Clippers | 118 | ||
Wednesday, May 5, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 56% | 116 | 139 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 44% | 114 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 34% | 114 | 134 |
| 6 | Bucks | 66% | 120 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 132 | ||
| 30 | Magic | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 74% | 119 | 141 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 26% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 103 | ||
| 16 | Hawks | 135 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 31% | 112 | 104 |
| 18 | Pacers | 69% | 119 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 135 | ||
| 26 | Rockets | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Knicks | 31% | 104 | 97 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 69% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 94 | ||
| 1 | Jazz | 126 | ||
Tuesday, May 4, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 75% | 117 | 134 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 25% | 107 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 102 | ||
| 28 | Pistons | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nets | 35% | 114 | 118 |
| 6 | Bucks | 65% | 120 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 127 | ||
| 12 | Heat | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Warriors | 49% | 114 | 103 |
| 19 | Pelicans | 51% | 115 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 103 | ||
| 29 | Thunder | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Raptors | 26% | 104 | 100 |
| 2 | Clippers | 74% | 113 | 105 |
Monday, May 3, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 38% | 102 | 119 |
| 27 | Pistons | 62% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 141 | ||
| 23 | Wizards | 154 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Warriors | 49% | 114 | 123 |
| 21 | Pelicans | 51% | 115 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 114 | ||
| 17 | Hawks | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 65% | 111 | 106 |
| 20 | Bulls | 35% | 106 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Knicks | 118 | ||
| 15 | Grizzlies | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 23% | 104 | 99 |
| 1 | Jazz | 77% | 114 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 89 | ||
| 7 | Lakers | 93 | ||
Sunday, May 2, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nets | 36% | 114 | 114 |
| 9 | Bucks | 64% | 119 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 129 | ||
| 8 | Celtics | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 56% | 109 | 121 |
| 22 | Hornets | 44% | 107 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 111 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Knicks | 68% | 112 | 122 |
| 26 | Rockets | 32% | 105 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 123 | ||
| 29 | Thunder | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 65% | 113 | 113 |
| 19 | Spurs | 35% | 108 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 121 | ||
| 6 | Lakers | 114 | ||
Saturday, May 1, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 34% | 105 | 94 |
| 22 | Hornets | 66% | 110 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 113 | ||
| 26 | Rockets | 87 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 41% | 109 | 97 |
| 17 | Hawks | 59% | 113 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 124 | ||
| 28 | Cavaliers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 75% | 112 | 111 |
| 30 | Magic | 25% | 103 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 140 | ||
| 25 | Timberwolves | 136 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 75% | 116 | 152 |
| 29 | Thunder | 25% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Wizards | 124 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Raptors | 38% | 106 | 102 |
| 1 | Jazz | 62% | 110 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 110 | ||
| 2 | Clippers | 104 | ||
Friday, April 30, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 33% | 108 | 104 |
| 6 | 76ers | 67% | 114 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Spurs | 140 | ||
| 8 | Celtics | 143 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Wizards | 55% | 116 | 122 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 45% | 114 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 128 | ||
| 3 | Nets | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 19% | 102 | 75 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 81% | 115 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bucks | 108 | ||
| 18 | Bulls | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 41% | 109 | 100 |
| 7 | Suns | 59% | 113 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 110 | ||
| 5 | Lakers | 106 | ||
Thursday, April 29, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 65% | 108 | 115 |
| 28 | Pistons | 35% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nets | 130 | ||
| 18 | Pacers | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 76% | 119 | 136 |
| 26 | Rockets | 24% | 109 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 114 | ||
| 24 | Timberwolves | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 69% | 114 | 109 |
| 29 | Thunder | 31% | 107 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 111 | ||
| 3 | Nuggets | 121 | ||
Wednesday, April 28, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 33% | 105 | 109 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 67% | 112 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 83 | ||
| 9 | 76ers | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 58% | 113 | 107 |
| 24 | Wizards | 42% | 111 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 111 | ||
| 8 | Celtics | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 40% | 105 | 94 |
| 17 | Knicks | 60% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 111 | ||
| 13 | Heat | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 113 | 130 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 62% | 117 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| 3 | Nuggets | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 35% | 107 | 101 |
| 6 | Suns | 65% | 113 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 154 | ||
| 23 | Kings | 105 | ||
Tuesday, April 27, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 17% | 99 | 119 |
| 7 | Celtics | 83% | 113 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 114 | ||
| 22 | Hornets | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 117 | 133 |
| 17 | Pacers | 47% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nets | 116 | ||
| 15 | Raptors | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 48% | 115 | 114 |
| 26 | Rockets | 52% | 116 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 133 | ||
| 12 | Warriors | 103 | ||
Monday, April 26, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 86 | ||
| 28 | Pistons | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 84% | 111 | 114 |
| 30 | Magic | 16% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 90 | ||
| 8 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 55% | 115 | 146 |
| 24 | Wizards | 45% | 113 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 118 | ||
| 18 | Knicks | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 26% | 104 | 96 |
| 16 | Raptors | 74% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 110 | ||
| 14 | Heat | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 71% | 117 | 104 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 29% | 109 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 103 | ||
| 21 | Pelicans | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 35% | 108 | 96 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 65% | 113 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 106 | ||
| 23 | Kings | 113 | ||