Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, May 2, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 36% | 114 | 114 | |
| 6 | Bucks | 64% | 120 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Blazers | 45% | 114 | 129 | |
| 10 | Celtics | 55% | 116 | 119 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 56% | 109 | 121 | |
| 22 | Hornets | 44% | 107 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 32% | 111 | 111 | |
| 12 | Mavericks | 68% | 118 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Knicks | 68% | 112 | 122 | |
| 26 | Rockets | 32% | 105 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 88% | 118 | 123 | |
| 30 | Thunder | 12% | 101 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 65% | 113 | 113 | |
| 23 | Spurs | 35% | 108 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 24% | 101 | 121 | |
| 3 | Lakers | 76% | 111 | 114 | |
Saturday, May 1, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 35% | 105 | 94 | |
| 21 | Hornets | 65% | 111 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Warriors | 64% | 117 | 113 | |
| 26 | Rockets | 36% | 112 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 41% | 110 | 97 | |
| 19 | Hawks | 59% | 113 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Heat | 72% | 112 | 124 | |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 28% | 104 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 75% | 112 | 111 | |
| 29 | Magic | 25% | 103 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 51% | 117 | 140 | |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 49% | 116 | 136 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 75% | 116 | 152 | |
| 30 | Thunder | 25% | 106 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Wizards | 29% | 111 | 124 | |
| 13 | Mavericks | 71% | 119 | 125 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 38% | 106 | 102 | |
| 9 | Jazz | 62% | 110 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 37% | 108 | 110 | |
| 1 | Clippers | 63% | 113 | 104 | |
Friday, April 30, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 36% | 109 | 104 | |
| 6 | 76ers | 64% | 114 | 126 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Spurs | 37% | 108 | 140 | |
| 13 | Celtics | 63% | 112 | 143 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 55% | 116 | 122 | |
| 26 | Cavaliers | 45% | 114 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Blazers | 42% | 118 | 128 | |
| 5 | Nets | 58% | 121 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 19% | 102 | 75 | |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 81% | 115 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 51% | 114 | 108 | |
| 20 | Bulls | 49% | 113 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 41% | 109 | 100 | |
| 2 | Suns | 59% | 113 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 20% | 106 | 110 | |
| 3 | Lakers | 80% | 118 | 106 | |
Thursday, April 29, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Mavericks | 65% | 108 | 115 | |
| 28 | Pistons | 35% | 103 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 54% | 117 | 130 | |
| 23 | Pacers | 46% | 115 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bucks | 76% | 119 | 136 | |
| 27 | Rockets | 24% | 109 | 143 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 58% | 117 | 114 | |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 42% | 114 | 126 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pelicans | 69% | 115 | 109 | |
| 30 | Thunder | 31% | 108 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 36% | 106 | 111 | |
| 5 | Nuggets | 64% | 111 | 121 | |
Wednesday, April 28, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 33% | 106 | 109 | |
| 26 | Cavaliers | 67% | 112 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 37% | 106 | 83 | |
| 5 | 76ers | 63% | 111 | 127 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 57% | 113 | 107 | |
| 21 | Wizards | 43% | 111 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 32% | 105 | 111 | |
| 12 | Celtics | 68% | 112 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 40% | 105 | 94 | |
| 15 | Knicks | 60% | 109 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 36% | 105 | 111 | |
| 6 | Heat | 64% | 110 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Blazers | 38% | 113 | 130 | |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 62% | 117 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 33% | 109 | 112 | |
| 4 | Nuggets | 67% | 115 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Clippers | 34% | 107 | 101 | |
| 2 | Suns | 66% | 113 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jazz | 71% | 116 | 154 | |
| 25 | Kings | 29% | 108 | 105 | |
Tuesday, April 27, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 17% | 100 | 119 | |
| 18 | Celtics | 83% | 113 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bucks | 67% | 115 | 114 | |
| 24 | Hornets | 33% | 109 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Blazers | 53% | 117 | 133 | |
| 19 | Pacers | 47% | 116 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 54% | 115 | 116 | |
| 13 | Raptors | 46% | 114 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 48% | 115 | 114 | |
| 27 | Rockets | 52% | 116 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 37% | 112 | 133 | |
| 6 | Warriors | 63% | 117 | 103 | |
Monday, April 26, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 58% | 110 | 86 | |
| 27 | Pistons | 42% | 107 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 83% | 111 | 114 | |
| 29 | Magic | 17% | 98 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 14% | 101 | 90 | |
| 12 | 76ers | 86% | 116 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Spurs | 54% | 115 | 146 | |
| 21 | Wizards | 46% | 113 | 143 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 53% | 108 | 118 | |
| 17 | Knicks | 47% | 107 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 26% | 104 | 96 | |
| 13 | Raptors | 74% | 113 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 37% | 105 | 110 | |
| 10 | Heat | 63% | 110 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 73% | 118 | 104 | |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 27% | 110 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 58% | 112 | 103 | |
| 18 | Pelicans | 42% | 109 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 34% | 108 | 96 | |
| 5 | Nuggets | 66% | 114 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 67% | 118 | 106 | |
| 25 | Kings | 33% | 112 | 113 | |
Sunday, April 25, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 63% | 111 | 104 | |
| 26 | Hornets | 37% | 107 | 125 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 54% | 116 | 119 | |
| 15 | Nets | 46% | 115 | 128 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 42% | 113 | 120 | |
| 10 | Blazers | 58% | 116 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 38% | 111 | 110 | |
| 20 | Wizards | 62% | 115 | 119 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 53% | 115 | 104 | |
| 18 | Hawks | 47% | 114 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 67% | 113 | 131 | |
| 29 | Magic | 33% | 107 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 26% | 111 | 113 | |
| 4 | Warriors | 74% | 120 | 117 | |
Saturday, April 24, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 44% | 105 | 103 | |
| 18 | Knicks | 56% | 107 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 76ers | 42% | 112 | 94 | |
| 1 | Bucks | 58% | 115 | 132 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 35% | 107 | 109 | |
| 21 | Pacers | 65% | 113 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 42% | 112 | 110 | |
| 16 | Pelicans | 58% | 114 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 37% | 104 | 101 | |
| 12 | Heat | 63% | 109 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 42% | 108 | 93 | |
| 5 | Mavericks | 58% | 111 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 21% | 107 | 101 | |
| 3 | Jazz | 79% | 119 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Rockets | 22% | 105 | 116 | |
| 4 | Nuggets | 78% | 116 | 129 | |
Friday, April 23, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 45% | 108 | 103 | |
| 13 | Hawks | 55% | 109 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 33% | 111 | 104 | |
| 9 | Nets | 67% | 117 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 51% | 110 | 102 | |
| 27 | Hornets | 49% | 109 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 67% | 114 | 109 | |
| 26 | Rockets | 33% | 108 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 70% | 117 | 129 | |
| 29 | Thunder | 30% | 110 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 43% | 113 | 130 | |
| 11 | Blazers | 57% | 116 | 128 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 45% | 113 | 97 | |
| 6 | Warriors | 55% | 114 | 118 | |
Thursday, April 22, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suns | 51% | 111 | 86 | |
| 11 | Celtics | 49% | 110 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pelicans | 71% | 115 | 135 | |
| 29 | Magic | 29% | 107 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 36% | 110 | 117 | |
| 2 | Bucks | 64% | 115 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 29% | 103 | 91 | |
| 20 | Spurs | 71% | 111 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 48% | 109 | 91 | |
| 22 | Bulls | 52% | 110 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 42% | 108 | 110 | |
| 5 | Mavericks | 58% | 111 | 115 | |
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 54% | 110 | 105 | |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 46% | 109 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 21% | 104 | 116 | |
| 20 | Pacers | 79% | 116 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 48% | 110 | 116 | |
| 5 | 76ers | 52% | 111 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 45% | 115 | 103 | |
| 16 | Raptors | 55% | 117 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 59% | 119 | 114 | |
| 22 | Wizards | 41% | 115 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 48% | 109 | 127 | |
| 19 | Knicks | 52% | 110 | 137 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jazz | 70% | 116 | 112 | |
| 23 | Rockets | 30% | 108 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 22% | 105 | 117 | |
| 4 | Mavericks | 78% | 116 | 127 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 44% | 106 | 107 | |
| 15 | Spurs | 56% | 109 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 49% | 108 | 105 | |
| 18 | Clippers | 51% | 109 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 59% | 116 | 106 | |
| 13 | Blazers | 41% | 113 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 42% | 115 | 125 | |
| 24 | Kings | 58% | 118 | 128 | |
Tuesday, April 20, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 17% | 104 | 96 | |
| 9 | Hawks | 83% | 117 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 37% | 103 | 97 | |
| 19 | Knicks | 63% | 108 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nets | 53% | 120 | 134 | |
| 13 | Pelicans | 47% | 119 | 129 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 51% | 113 | 113 | |
| 14 | Blazers | 49% | 112 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 43% | 115 | 134 | |
| 24 | Kings | 57% | 118 | 120 | |
Monday, April 19, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 51% | 108 | 105 | |
| 28 | Pistons | 49% | 107 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 31% | 105 | 102 | |
| 10 | Celtics | 69% | 112 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warriors | 40% | 110 | 107 | |
| 7 | 76ers | 60% | 114 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 48% | 111 | 109 | |
| 17 | Pacers | 52% | 112 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Rockets | 31% | 105 | 91 | |
| 12 | Heat | 69% | 112 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 19% | 107 | 107 | |
| 21 | Wizards | 81% | 119 | 119 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 45% | 112 | 128 | |
| 4 | Bucks | 55% | 114 | 127 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 30% | 107 | 137 | |
| 3 | Nuggets | 70% | 114 | 139 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 65% | 109 | 111 | |
| 16 | Lakers | 35% | 103 | 97 | |