Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, April 30, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Celtics | 143 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Nets | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Magic | 19% | 102 | 75 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Bucks | 108 | ||
 | 18 | Bulls | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 5 | Lakers | 106 | ||
Thursday, April 29, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Mavericks | 65% | 108 | 115 |
 | 28 | Pistons | 35% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nets | 130 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 76% | 119 | 136 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 24 | Timberwolves | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Pelicans | 69% | 114 | 109 |
 | 29 | Thunder | 31% | 107 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Raptors | 111 | ||
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Wednesday, April 28, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 33% | 105 | 109 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 67% | 112 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 83 | ||
| 9 | 76ers | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 58% | 113 | 107 |
| 24 | Wizards | 42% | 111 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Hornets | 111 | ||
| 8 | Celtics | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 40% | 105 | 94 |
 | 17 | Knicks | 60% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 111 | ||
 | 13 | Heat | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 113 | 130 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 62% | 117 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| 3 | Nuggets | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 2 | Clippers | 35% | 107 | 101 |
| 6 | Suns | 65% | 113 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 154 | ||
| 23 | Kings | 105 | ||
Tuesday, April 27, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 17% | 99 | 119 |
| 7 | Celtics | 83% | 113 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 114 | ||
| 22 | Hornets | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 117 | 133 |
| 17 | Pacers | 47% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nets | 116 | ||
| 15 | Raptors | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 48% | 115 | 114 |
| 26 | Rockets | 52% | 116 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 133 | ||
| 12 | Warriors | 103 | ||
Monday, April 26, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 86 | ||
| 28 | Pistons | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 84% | 111 | 114 |
| 30 | Magic | 16% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 90 | ||
| 8 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 55% | 115 | 146 |
| 24 | Wizards | 45% | 113 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 118 | ||
| 18 | Knicks | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 26% | 104 | 96 |
| 16 | Raptors | 74% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 110 | ||
| 14 | Heat | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 71% | 117 | 104 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 29% | 109 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 103 | ||
| 21 | Pelicans | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 35% | 108 | 96 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 65% | 113 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 106 | ||
| 23 | Kings | 113 | ||
Sunday, April 25, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 38% | 110 | 110 |
| 22 | Wizards | 62% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 120 | ||
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celtics | 63% | 111 | 104 |
| 23 | Hornets | 37% | 107 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 119 | ||
| 4 | Nets | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 52% | 115 | 104 |
| 15 | Hawks | 48% | 114 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 131 | ||
| 30 | Magic | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 27% | 111 | 113 |
| 12 | Warriors | 73% | 120 | 117 |
Saturday, April 24, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 110 | ||
| 21 | Pelicans | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 103 | ||
| 18 | Knicks | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 76ers | 38% | 110 | 94 |
| 4 | Bucks | 62% | 115 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 109 | ||
| 17 | Pacers | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 38% | 104 | 101 |
| 14 | Heat | 62% | 109 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 93 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 21% | 107 | 101 |
| 1 | Jazz | 79% | 119 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 116 | ||
| 3 | Nuggets | 129 | ||
Friday, April 23, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 43% | 113 | 130 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 57% | 115 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 103 | ||
| 15 | Hawks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 33% | 111 | 104 |
| 5 | Nets | 67% | 117 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 102 | ||
| 22 | Hornets | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 67% | 114 | 109 |
| 26 | Rockets | 33% | 107 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 129 | ||
| 29 | Thunder | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 45% | 112 | 97 |
| 12 | Warriors | 55% | 114 | 118 |
Thursday, April 22, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 86 | ||
| 7 | Celtics | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 71% | 115 | 135 |
| 29 | Magic | 29% | 107 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 117 | ||
| 5 | Bucks | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 30% | 103 | 91 |
| 18 | Spurs | 70% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 91 | ||
| 21 | Bulls | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 43% | 108 | 110 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 57% | 111 | 115 |
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 117 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 54% | 110 | 105 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 46% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 116 | ||
| 16 | Pacers | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 48% | 110 | 116 |
| 4 | 76ers | 52% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 103 | ||
| 17 | Raptors | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Warriors | 59% | 118 | 114 |
| 24 | Wizards | 41% | 115 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 127 | ||
| 19 | Knicks | 137 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 70% | 115 | 112 |
| 26 | Rockets | 30% | 108 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 107 | ||
| 18 | Spurs | 87 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 49% | 108 | 105 |
| 2 | Clippers | 51% | 109 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 106 | ||
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 43% | 115 | 125 |
| 22 | Kings | 57% | 118 | 128 |
Tuesday, April 20, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 96 | ||
| 14 | Hawks | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hornets | 37% | 103 | 97 |
| 19 | Knicks | 63% | 108 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 134 | ||
| 20 | Pelicans | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 52% | 113 | 113 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 112 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 134 | ||
| 22 | Kings | 120 | ||
Monday, April 19, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Spurs | 48% | 111 | 109 |
| 16 | Pacers | 52% | 112 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 105 | ||
| 28 | Pistons | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 31% | 105 | 102 |
| 5 | Celtics | 69% | 112 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Warriors | 107 | ||
| 4 | 76ers | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Rockets | 31% | 105 | 91 |
| 14 | Heat | 69% | 112 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 107 | ||
| 24 | Wizards | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 45% | 112 | 128 |
| 6 | Bucks | 55% | 114 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 137 | ||
| 3 | Nuggets | 139 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 62% | 107 | 111 |
| 8 | Lakers | 38% | 103 | 97 |
Sunday, April 18, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 101 | ||
| 22 | Hornets | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 43% | 111 | 117 |
| 14 | Hawks | 57% | 114 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| 19 | Knicks | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nets | 46% | 112 | 107 |
| 15 | Heat | 54% | 113 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Rockets | 114 | ||
| 29 | Magic | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 33% | 104 | 106 |
| 17 | Raptors | 67% | 110 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 121 | ||
| 9 | Mavericks | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 18% | 108 | 105 |
| 1 | Clippers | 82% | 121 | 124 |
Saturday, April 17, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 48% | 106 | 115 |
| 9 | Lakers | 52% | 107 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 100 | ||
| 24 | Wizards | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 45% | 108 | 96 |
| 21 | Bulls | 55% | 110 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Warriors | 114 | ||
| 8 | Celtics | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 32% | 110 | 128 |
| 5 | Bucks | 68% | 117 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Spurs | 111 | ||
| 7 | Suns | 85 | ||