Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, May 5, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Celtics | 82% | 117 | 132 |
 | 30 | Magic | 18% | 103 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 21 | Timberwolves | 44% | 114 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 6 | Bucks | 66% | 120 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Knicks | 31% | 104 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tuesday, May 4, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 75% | 117 | 134 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 25% | 107 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Hornets | 60% | 110 | 102 |
 | 28 | Pistons | 40% | 106 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Nets | 35% | 114 | 118 |
| 2 | Bucks | 65% | 120 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Mavericks | 42% | 108 | 127 |
 | 9 | Heat | 58% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 16 | Pelicans | 51% | 115 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 63% | 114 | 103 |
 | 29 | Thunder | 37% | 109 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Raptors | 26% | 104 | 100 |
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Monday, May 3, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 38% | 102 | 119 |
| 28 | Pistons | 62% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 48% | 117 | 141 |
| 20 | Wizards | 52% | 118 | 154 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Warriors | 49% | 114 | 123 |
| 15 | Pelicans | 51% | 115 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 116 | 114 |
| 16 | Hawks | 53% | 117 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 76ers | 65% | 111 | 106 |
 | 23 | Bulls | 35% | 106 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 36% | 106 | 118 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 64% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Spurs | 23% | 104 | 99 |
| 8 | Jazz | 77% | 114 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 56% | 107 | 89 |
 | 14 | Lakers | 44% | 105 | 93 |
Sunday, May 2, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 36% | 114 | 114 |
| 6 | Bucks | 64% | 119 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 114 | 129 |
| 10 | Celtics | 56% | 116 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 56% | 109 | 121 |
| 22 | Hornets | 44% | 107 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 32% | 111 | 111 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 68% | 117 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Knicks | 68% | 112 | 122 |
| 26 | Rockets | 32% | 105 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 88% | 118 | 123 |
| 30 | Thunder | 12% | 101 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 65% | 113 | 113 |
| 23 | Spurs | 35% | 108 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 25% | 102 | 121 |
| 3 | Lakers | 75% | 111 | 114 |
Saturday, May 1, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 34% | 105 | 94 |
| 21 | Hornets | 66% | 110 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Warriors | 64% | 116 | 113 |
| 26 | Rockets | 36% | 111 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 41% | 109 | 97 |
| 19 | Hawks | 59% | 113 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Heat | 72% | 112 | 124 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 28% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 75% | 112 | 111 |
| 29 | Magic | 25% | 103 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 52% | 117 | 140 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 48% | 116 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 75% | 116 | 152 |
| 30 | Thunder | 25% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Wizards | 30% | 111 | 124 |
| 13 | Mavericks | 70% | 119 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 38% | 106 | 102 |
| 9 | Jazz | 62% | 110 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 37% | 108 | 110 |
| 1 | Clippers | 63% | 112 | 104 |
Friday, April 30, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 33% | 108 | 104 |
| 6 | 76ers | 67% | 114 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Spurs | 37% | 107 | 140 |
| 13 | Celtics | 63% | 112 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 55% | 116 | 122 |
| 26 | Cavaliers | 45% | 114 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 42% | 118 | 128 |
| 5 | Nets | 58% | 121 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 19% | 102 | 75 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 81% | 115 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 51% | 114 | 108 |
| 20 | Bulls | 49% | 113 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 41% | 109 | 100 |
| 2 | Suns | 59% | 113 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 20% | 106 | 110 |
| 3 | Lakers | 80% | 118 | 106 |
Thursday, April 29, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Mavericks | 65% | 108 | 115 |
| 28 | Pistons | 35% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 55% | 117 | 130 |
| 23 | Pacers | 45% | 115 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bucks | 76% | 119 | 136 |
| 27 | Rockets | 24% | 109 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 58% | 116 | 114 |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 42% | 113 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pelicans | 69% | 114 | 109 |
| 30 | Thunder | 31% | 107 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 36% | 106 | 111 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 64% | 111 | 121 |
Wednesday, April 28, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 33% | 105 | 109 |
| 26 | Cavaliers | 67% | 112 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 38% | 106 | 83 |
| 5 | 76ers | 62% | 111 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 58% | 113 | 107 |
| 21 | Wizards | 42% | 111 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 32% | 105 | 111 |
| 12 | Celtics | 68% | 112 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 40% | 105 | 94 |
| 15 | Knicks | 60% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 36% | 105 | 111 |
| 6 | Heat | 64% | 110 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 113 | 130 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 62% | 117 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 33% | 109 | 112 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 67% | 115 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Clippers | 35% | 107 | 101 |
| 2 | Suns | 65% | 113 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jazz | 71% | 116 | 154 |
| 25 | Kings | 29% | 108 | 105 |
Tuesday, April 27, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 17% | 99 | 119 |
| 18 | Celtics | 83% | 113 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bucks | 67% | 115 | 114 |
| 24 | Hornets | 33% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 117 | 133 |
| 19 | Pacers | 47% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 53% | 115 | 116 |
| 13 | Raptors | 47% | 114 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 48% | 115 | 114 |
| 27 | Rockets | 52% | 116 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 37% | 112 | 133 |
| 6 | Warriors | 63% | 117 | 103 |
Monday, April 26, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 57% | 110 | 86 |
| 27 | Pistons | 43% | 107 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 84% | 111 | 114 |
| 29 | Magic | 16% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 14% | 100 | 90 |
| 12 | 76ers | 86% | 116 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Spurs | 55% | 115 | 146 |
| 21 | Wizards | 45% | 113 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 53% | 108 | 118 |
| 17 | Knicks | 47% | 107 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 26% | 104 | 96 |
| 13 | Raptors | 74% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 34% | 104 | 110 |
| 10 | Heat | 66% | 110 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 71% | 117 | 104 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 29% | 109 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 58% | 112 | 103 |
| 18 | Pelicans | 42% | 109 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 35% | 108 | 96 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 65% | 113 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 67% | 118 | 106 |
| 25 | Kings | 33% | 111 | 113 |
Sunday, April 25, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 63% | 111 | 104 |
| 26 | Hornets | 37% | 107 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 54% | 116 | 119 |
| 15 | Nets | 46% | 115 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 44% | 114 | 120 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 116 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 38% | 110 | 110 |
| 20 | Wizards | 62% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 52% | 115 | 104 |
| 18 | Hawks | 48% | 114 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 66% | 112 | 131 |
| 29 | Magic | 34% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 27% | 111 | 113 |
| 4 | Warriors | 73% | 120 | 117 |
Saturday, April 24, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 44% | 105 | 103 |
| 18 | Knicks | 56% | 107 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 76ers | 38% | 110 | 94 |
| 1 | Bucks | 62% | 115 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 35% | 107 | 109 |
| 21 | Pacers | 65% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 43% | 111 | 110 |
| 16 | Pelicans | 57% | 114 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 38% | 104 | 101 |
| 12 | Heat | 62% | 109 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 39% | 107 | 93 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 61% | 111 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 21% | 107 | 101 |
| 3 | Jazz | 79% | 119 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Rockets | 22% | 105 | 116 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 78% | 116 | 129 |
Friday, April 23, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 45% | 107 | 103 |
| 13 | Hawks | 55% | 109 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 33% | 111 | 104 |
| 9 | Nets | 67% | 117 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 51% | 110 | 102 |
| 27 | Hornets | 49% | 109 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 67% | 114 | 109 |
| 26 | Rockets | 33% | 107 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 70% | 117 | 129 |
| 29 | Thunder | 30% | 109 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 43% | 113 | 130 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 57% | 115 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 45% | 112 | 97 |
| 6 | Warriors | 55% | 114 | 118 |
Thursday, April 22, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suns | 51% | 111 | 86 |
| 11 | Celtics | 49% | 110 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pelicans | 71% | 115 | 135 |
| 29 | Magic | 29% | 107 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 36% | 110 | 117 |
| 2 | Bucks | 64% | 115 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 30% | 103 | 91 |
| 20 | Spurs | 70% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 48% | 109 | 91 |
| 22 | Bulls | 52% | 110 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 43% | 108 | 110 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 57% | 111 | 115 |