Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Lakers | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tuesday, May 18, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 9 | Celtics | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Hornets | 117 | ||
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BEC0C2;}%20.st1{fill:%23002D62;}%20.st2{fill:%23FDBB30;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M318.6,100.7c-20.1-24.2-48.9-37.7-81.3-37.7l-129.5,0L47.7,336.1l110.6,0.1l15.9-66.1c14.8,0,53.9,0,53.8,0%20c37,0.3,67.4-12.3,87.9-36.3C353,193.4,346.4,134.3,318.6,100.7z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M168.4,262.9L152.6,329l-96,0l56.9-258.8l123.7,0.1c30.8,0.1,57.2,12.5,75.8,35c27.4,33.1,30.1,88.1-2.7,123.9%20c-20.1,23.6-49.6,34-82.3,33.7L168.4,262.9z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M100.8,127.7l54.2,0c6.2,0,12.9,5.2,10,13.1c-1.8,4.9-3.1,10.6-3.8,15.9c-0.5,4.2,4.2,6.8,6.8,6.8l110.5,0.1%20c2.1,0,3.2-0.6,3.2-1.6c0-1-0.1-4.7-0.5-7.2c-0.4-2.4-0.8-2.9-2.8-2.9c-13.8,0-19.4-6.1-33.8-15.5c-14.4-9.3-35.6-14.7-53.8-14.7%20l-88.7-0.1L100.8,127.7z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M167.7,199.3c-1.9-4.1-3.7-9-4.8-13.4c-1.4-5.7-6.2-10.4-14.5-10.4l-58.2,0l1.4-6.5l188.5,0.1%20c1.9,0,1.5,0.8,1.4,2.9c-0.1,2.1-0.6,5.9-0.9,8.2c-0.3,2.3-2.2,1.7-4,1.8c-4.2,0.1-12.1,1.1-16.7,4.5c-7.8,5.9-24.5,16.2-33.8,19.2%20c-10,3.2-47.6,14.7-58.6-6.5'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M79.9,222.8l98.4,0.1c4.3,0,8.1,1,11,3.4c8.3,6.9,19.1,11.8,30.5,15.1c5.1,1.5,14-0.4,21.9-4.9%20c19.7-11.1,32.4-32.3,36.5-46c1.1-3.6-1-3.3-3.8-3.1c-8.3,0.6-17,8.1-28.5,15.4c-11.5,7.3-34.8,14.2-57,14.2l-107.8-0.1L79.9,222.8%20z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M224.2,91c1.4-0.2,6.4-0.5,9.1,0.5c18.7,7.4,36.4,26.8,43.8,47.5c1.4,4,1.8,6.5,0,6.7%20c-8.6,0.9-12.6-3.3-22.6-10.1c-10.1-6.8-19.4-11.5-32.1-15.5c-12.6-4-35.5-4.6-38.5-4.7c-3-0.1-2.6-1.3-1.3-2.6%20C193.6,101.9,208.3,93.9,224.2,91z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M313.9,162c0.1,0.8-0.8,1.7-1.8,1.7c-0.1,0-21.6,0-21.6,0c-2.8,0-2.8-1.3-2.9-2.9c-0.1-1.6-0.6-4.7-0.6-6.6%20c-0.1-1.8-0.8-3.9,1.7-4.9c6-2.5,11.7-8.4,14.3-13.4c0.9-1.7,2.2-4.5,3.6-2.1C311.7,141.8,313.3,151.9,313.9,162z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M306.2,200.7c-0.4,0.7-1.7,1.3-2.2,0.1c-3.1-8.4-10.6-14.2-15.8-17.1c-1.6-0.9-1.7-1.9-1.5-3.4%20c0.2-1.5,0.9-6.4,1-8.5c0.1-1.6,0.7-2.8,2-2.8l22.5,0c0.8,0,1.8,0.7,1.8,1.3C313.9,181,310.7,191.6,306.2,200.7z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M247.8,242.9c-1.6,0.2-5-0.3,0.4-3.5c16.3-9.5,30.9-31.8,34.7-44.5c1.5-4.9,1.6-5.1,3.5-4.6%20c2.5,0.7,6.4,4.1,9.4,8.3c3,4.1,4.3,12.2,2.6,14.6C286.8,228.8,268.1,239.9,247.8,242.9z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M289.3,142.1c-3.8,2-4.5,1.7-5.3-1.2c-7.1-24.9-28-43.3-36.6-48.7c-1.6-1-1.2-1.7,0-1.6%20c20.5,2.7,40.5,13.9,50.6,29.2C303.8,128.5,293,140.1,289.3,142.1z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 16 | Pacers | 144 | ||
Sunday, May 16, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Nets | 83% | 122 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Bucks | 112 | ||
 | 19 | Bulls | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Heat | 64% | 108 | 120 |
 | 27 | Pistons | 36% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 101 | ||
| 13 | Warriors | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Mavericks | 62% | 119 | 121 |
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 38% | 114 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 110 | ||
 | 21 | Pelicans | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 34% | 104 | 92 |
 | 16 | Knicks | 66% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Thunder | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Magic | 19% | 101 | 117 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 23 | Spurs | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 54% | 111 | 125 |
 | 15 | Raptors | 46% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 110 | ||
| 20 | Wizards | 115 | ||
Saturday, May 15, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 91 | ||
| 3 | Nets | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 58% | 111 | 122 |
| 18 | Pacers | 42% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 108 | ||
| 5 | Bucks | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 46% | 114 | 124 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 54% | 116 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 109 | ||
| 16 | Knicks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 62% | 116 | 140 |
| 21 | Spurs | 38% | 111 | 103 |
Friday, May 14, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 105 | ||
| 20 | Wizards | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 25% | 107 | 106 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 75% | 117 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 104 | ||
| 27 | Pistons | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 8% | 98 | 97 |
| 5 | 76ers | 92% | 118 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 109 | ||
| 29 | Thunder | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 19% | 103 | 110 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 81% | 116 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 115 | ||
| 26 | Rockets | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 25% | 106 | 122 |
| 13 | Warriors | 75% | 116 | 125 |
Thursday, May 13, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 29% | 110 | 110 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 71% | 118 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Spurs | 98 | ||
| 18 | Knicks | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 70% | 115 | 113 |
| 24 | Hornets | 30% | 107 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bucks | 142 | ||
| 17 | Pacers | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 14% | 104 | 93 |
| 14 | Hawks | 86% | 120 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 94 | ||
| 13 | Heat | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 32% | 107 | 102 |
| 19 | Bulls | 68% | 114 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 114 | ||
| 25 | Timberwolves | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 115 | 117 |
| 6 | Suns | 65% | 121 | 118 |
Wednesday, May 12, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 107 | ||
| 11 | Mavericks | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 116 | ||
| 14 | Hawks | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Spurs | 34% | 111 | 116 |
| 3 | Nets | 66% | 117 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 94 | ||
| 28 | Cavaliers | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 113 | 105 |
| 1 | Jazz | 61% | 117 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 122 | ||
| 6 | Lakers | 124 | ||
Tuesday, May 11, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 117 | ||
| 24 | Hornets | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 129 | ||
| 8 | Celtics | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 57% | 112 | 119 |
| 27 | Pistons | 43% | 109 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 115 | ||
| 14 | Raptors | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 60% | 114 | 94 |
| 18 | Pacers | 40% | 110 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nets | 115 | ||
| 17 | Bulls | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 51% | 112 | 104 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 49% | 111 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 102 | ||
| 6 | Bucks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 52% | 114 | 116 |
| 13 | Warriors | 48% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 106 | ||
| 23 | Kings | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 39% | 100 | 99 |
| 7 | Lakers | 61% | 103 | 101 |
Monday, May 10, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 124 | ||
| 15 | Hawks | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 69% | 115 | 111 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 31% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 110 | ||
| 16 | Grizzlies | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 66% | 116 | 125 |
| 22 | Spurs | 34% | 110 | 146 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 116 | ||
| 14 | Warriors | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 19% | 111 | 129 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 81% | 124 | 140 |
Sunday, May 9, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 42% | 108 | 130 |
| 7 | Celtics | 58% | 111 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 23% | 101 | 106 |
| 2 | Clippers | 77% | 111 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| 24 | Hornets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 70% | 115 | 124 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 30% | 107 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 128 | ||
| 30 | Magic | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 65% | 112 | 108 |
| 27 | Pistons | 35% | 107 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 110 | ||
| 8 | Lakers | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 17% | 104 | 98 |
| 23 | Kings | 83% | 118 | 126 |
Saturday, May 8, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 133 | ||
| 18 | Pacers | 132 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 19% | 102 | 104 |
| 5 | 76ers | 81% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 109 | ||
| 12 | Raptors | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nets | 46% | 114 | 125 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 54% | 116 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 116 | ||
| 1 | Jazz | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 15% | 102 | 97 |
| 13 | Warriors | 85% | 117 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Spurs | 102 | ||
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 124 | ||
Friday, May 7, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 99 | ||
| 18 | Bulls | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 21% | 103 | 107 |
| 5 | 76ers | 79% | 115 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 112 | ||
| 24 | Hornets | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 36% | 110 | 112 |
| 12 | Heat | 64% | 116 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 133 | ||
| 6 | Bucks | 141 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 26% | 107 | 90 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 74% | 116 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 120 | ||
| 1 | Jazz | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 31% | 105 | 105 |
| 8 | Suns | 69% | 112 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 101 | ||
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Spurs | 47% | 111 | 113 |
| 23 | Kings | 53% | 112 | 104 |
Thursday, May 6, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 120 | ||
| 23 | Hornets | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 41% | 112 | 131 |
| 12 | Raptors | 59% | 115 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nets | 109 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 60% | 113 | 97 |
| 27 | Pistons | 40% | 109 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 126 | ||
| 17 | Pacers | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 16% | 102 | 97 |
| 14 | Warriors | 84% | 116 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 94 | ||
| 2 | Clippers | 118 | ||