Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, May 18, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 9 | Celtics | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Hornets | 117 | ||
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Sunday, May 16, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Nets | 83% | 122 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Bucks | 112 | ||
 | 19 | Bulls | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Heat | 64% | 108 | 120 |
 | 27 | Pistons | 36% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Mavericks | 62% | 119 | 121 |
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 38% | 114 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Lakers | 110 | ||
 | 21 | Pelicans | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 34% | 104 | 92 |
 | 16 | Knicks | 66% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Thunder | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Magic | 19% | 101 | 117 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 54% | 111 | 125 |
 | 15 | Raptors | 46% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 110 | ||
| 20 | Wizards | 115 | ||
Saturday, May 15, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 91 | ||
| 3 | Nets | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 58% | 111 | 122 |
| 18 | Pacers | 42% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 108 | ||
| 5 | Bucks | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 46% | 114 | 124 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 54% | 116 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 109 | ||
| 16 | Knicks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 62% | 116 | 140 |
| 21 | Spurs | 38% | 111 | 103 |
Friday, May 14, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 105 | ||
| 20 | Wizards | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 25% | 107 | 106 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 75% | 117 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 104 | ||
| 27 | Pistons | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 8% | 98 | 97 |
| 5 | 76ers | 92% | 118 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 109 | ||
| 29 | Thunder | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 19% | 103 | 110 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 81% | 116 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 115 | ||
| 26 | Rockets | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 25% | 106 | 122 |
| 13 | Warriors | 75% | 116 | 125 |
Thursday, May 13, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 29% | 110 | 110 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 71% | 118 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Spurs | 98 | ||
| 18 | Knicks | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 70% | 115 | 113 |
| 24 | Hornets | 30% | 107 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bucks | 142 | ||
| 17 | Pacers | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 14% | 104 | 93 |
| 14 | Hawks | 86% | 120 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 94 | ||
| 13 | Heat | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 32% | 107 | 102 |
| 19 | Bulls | 68% | 114 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 114 | ||
| 25 | Timberwolves | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 115 | 117 |
| 6 | Suns | 65% | 121 | 118 |
Wednesday, May 12, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 107 | ||
| 11 | Mavericks | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 116 | ||
| 14 | Hawks | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Spurs | 34% | 111 | 116 |
| 3 | Nets | 66% | 117 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 94 | ||
| 28 | Cavaliers | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 113 | 105 |
| 1 | Jazz | 61% | 117 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 122 | ||
| 6 | Lakers | 124 | ||
Tuesday, May 11, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 117 | ||
| 24 | Hornets | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 129 | ||
| 8 | Celtics | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 57% | 112 | 119 |
| 27 | Pistons | 43% | 109 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 115 | ||
| 14 | Raptors | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 60% | 114 | 94 |
| 18 | Pacers | 40% | 110 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nets | 115 | ||
| 17 | Bulls | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 51% | 112 | 104 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 49% | 111 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 102 | ||
| 6 | Bucks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 52% | 114 | 116 |
| 13 | Warriors | 48% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 106 | ||
| 23 | Kings | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 39% | 100 | 99 |
| 7 | Lakers | 61% | 103 | 101 |
Monday, May 10, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 124 | ||
| 15 | Hawks | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 69% | 115 | 111 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 31% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 110 | ||
| 16 | Grizzlies | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 66% | 116 | 125 |
| 22 | Spurs | 34% | 110 | 146 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 116 | ||
| 14 | Warriors | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 19% | 111 | 129 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 81% | 124 | 140 |
Sunday, May 9, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 42% | 108 | 130 |
| 7 | Celtics | 58% | 111 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 23% | 101 | 106 |
| 2 | Clippers | 77% | 111 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| 24 | Hornets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 70% | 115 | 124 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 30% | 107 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 128 | ||
| 30 | Magic | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 65% | 112 | 108 |
| 27 | Pistons | 35% | 107 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 110 | ||
| 8 | Lakers | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 17% | 104 | 98 |
| 23 | Kings | 83% | 118 | 126 |
Saturday, May 8, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 133 | ||
| 18 | Pacers | 132 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 19% | 102 | 104 |
| 5 | 76ers | 81% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 109 | ||
| 12 | Raptors | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nets | 46% | 114 | 125 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 54% | 116 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 116 | ||
| 1 | Jazz | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 15% | 102 | 97 |
| 13 | Warriors | 85% | 117 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Spurs | 102 | ||
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 124 | ||
Friday, May 7, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 99 | ||
| 18 | Bulls | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 21% | 103 | 107 |
| 5 | 76ers | 79% | 115 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 112 | ||
| 24 | Hornets | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 36% | 110 | 112 |
| 12 | Heat | 64% | 116 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 133 | ||
| 6 | Bucks | 141 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 26% | 107 | 90 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 74% | 116 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 120 | ||
| 1 | Jazz | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 31% | 105 | 105 |
| 8 | Suns | 69% | 112 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 101 | ||
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Spurs | 47% | 111 | 113 |
| 23 | Kings | 53% | 112 | 104 |
Thursday, May 6, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 120 | ||
| 23 | Hornets | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 41% | 112 | 131 |
| 12 | Raptors | 59% | 115 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nets | 109 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 60% | 113 | 97 |
| 27 | Pistons | 40% | 109 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 126 | ||
| 17 | Pacers | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 16% | 102 | 97 |
| 14 | Warriors | 84% | 116 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 94 | ||
| 2 | Clippers | 118 | ||
Wednesday, May 5, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 56% | 116 | 139 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 44% | 114 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 34% | 114 | 134 |
| 6 | Bucks | 66% | 120 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 132 | ||
| 30 | Magic | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 74% | 119 | 141 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 26% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 103 | ||
| 16 | Hawks | 135 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 31% | 112 | 104 |
| 18 | Pacers | 69% | 119 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 135 | ||
| 26 | Rockets | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Knicks | 31% | 104 | 97 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 69% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 94 | ||
| 1 | Jazz | 126 | ||