Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 76ers | 42% | 96 | 117 | |
| 14 | Hawks | 58% | 98 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 22% | 96 | 85 | |
| 4 | Magic | 78% | 106 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 69% | 99 | 100 | |
| 24 | Pistons | 31% | 93 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 19% | 91 | 112 | |
| 1 | Heat | 81% | 103 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 30% | 93 | 74 | |
| 17 | Bucks | 70% | 100 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 31% | 94 | 105 | |
| 11 | Thunder | 69% | 100 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 21% | 100 | 112 | |
| 10 | Rockets | 79% | 111 | 108 | |
Monday, February 7, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 65% | 93 | 89 | |
| 23 | Bobcats | 35% | 88 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 61% | 98 | 93 | |
| 15 | Grizzlies | 39% | 94 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 26% | 94 | 104 | |
| 20 | Hornets | 74% | 102 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 11% | 90 | 96 | |
| 4 | Mavericks | 89% | 106 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 42% | 105 | 108 | |
| 8 | Nuggets | 58% | 107 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bulls | 51% | 93 | 103 | |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 92 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 59% | 99 | 107 | |
| 28 | Kings | 41% | 96 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 49% | 106 | 104 | |
| 16 | Warriors | 51% | 107 | 92 | |
Sunday, February 6, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 17% | 92 | 79 | |
| 1 | Heat | 83% | 105 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 59% | 99 | 105 | |
| 27 | Nets | 41% | 95 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 76ers | 39% | 101 | 103 | |
| 12 | Knicks | 61% | 105 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 39% | 93 | 80 | |
| 3 | Celtics | 61% | 97 | 91 | |
Saturday, February 5, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 62% | 96 | 101 | |
| 23 | Bobcats | 38% | 92 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 57% | 98 | 99 | |
| 27 | Wizards | 43% | 96 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 72% | 100 | 111 | |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 28% | 92 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 60% | 96 | 101 | |
| 17 | Hornets | 40% | 93 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 33% | 97 | 93 | |
| 10 | Rockets | 67% | 103 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 28% | 88 | 89 | |
| 20 | Bucks | 72% | 96 | 78 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 67% | 109 | 113 | |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 33% | 103 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Thunder | 47% | 98 | 121 | |
| 18 | Jazz | 53% | 99 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 56% | 100 | 90 | |
| 21 | Warriors | 44% | 98 | 101 | |
Friday, February 4, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 69% | 97 | 109 | |
| 23 | Bobcats | 31% | 90 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 96 | 87 | |
| 16 | Pacers | 53% | 97 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Knicks | 44% | 101 | 98 | |
| 15 | 76ers | 56% | 104 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 44% | 104 | 100 | |
| 28 | Raptors | 56% | 106 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 67% | 101 | 110 | |
| 25 | Wizards | 33% | 96 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 32% | 96 | 100 | |
| 11 | Hawks | 68% | 102 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 42% | 94 | 82 | |
| 24 | Pistons | 58% | 97 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 38% | 90 | 101 | |
| 4 | Celtics | 62% | 94 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 19% | 91 | 105 | |
| 18 | Grizzlies | 81% | 103 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Thunder | 40% | 101 | 111 | |
| 9 | Suns | 60% | 104 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 69% | 100 | 113 | |
| 26 | Kings | 31% | 93 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 27% | 98 | 113 | |
| 6 | Nuggets | 73% | 106 | 106 | |
Thursday, February 3, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 47% | 98 | 104 | |
| 5 | Magic | 53% | 99 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 35% | 96 | 94 | |
| 19 | Warriors | 65% | 101 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 39% | 96 | 89 | |
| 2 | Lakers | 61% | 100 | 88 | |
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Raptors | 24% | 96 | 87 | |
| 11 | Hawks | 76% | 105 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 75% | 103 | 117 | |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 25% | 94 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 58% | 97 | 106 | |
| 27 | Nets | 42% | 94 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 49% | 94 | 97 | |
| 24 | Pistons | 51% | 95 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 49% | 101 | 113 | |
| 10 | Knicks | 51% | 102 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 61% | 102 | 102 | |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 39% | 98 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hornets | 38% | 94 | 93 | |
| 13 | Thunder | 62% | 98 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 97 | 90 | |
| 6 | Nuggets | 70% | 104 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 33% | 96 | 77 | |
| 9 | Suns | 67% | 101 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 44% | 99 | 97 | |
| 20 | Jazz | 56% | 101 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 59% | 97 | 106 | |
| 21 | Clippers | 41% | 94 | 88 | |
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 19% | 88 | 89 | |
| 10 | Hornets | 81% | 99 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 54% | 96 | 86 | |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 94 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 72% | 97 | 95 | |
| 25 | Kings | 28% | 89 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 29% | 98 | 106 | |
| 2 | Lakers | 71% | 106 | 114 | |
Monday, January 31, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 26% | 97 | 93 | |
| 16 | Pacers | 74% | 106 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 66% | 104 | 99 | |
| 29 | Nets | 34% | 98 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 6% | 86 | 90 | |
| 1 | Heat | 94% | 107 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 52% | 98 | 97 | |
| 18 | Grizzlies | 48% | 97 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 19% | 91 | 92 | |
| 5 | Mavericks | 81% | 102 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 40% | 92 | 78 | |
| 20 | Jazz | 60% | 96 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 49% | 95 | 98 | |
| 22 | Clippers | 51% | 96 | 105 | |
Sunday, January 30, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Heat | 55% | 99 | 108 | |
| 12 | Thunder | 45% | 97 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 37% | 92 | 109 | |
| 1 | Lakers | 63% | 96 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 9% | 92 | 87 | |
| 3 | Magic | 91% | 109 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 55% | 103 | 99 | |
| 18 | 76ers | 45% | 101 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 28% | 97 | 106 | |
| 10 | Knicks | 72% | 105 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 39% | 96 | 102 | |
| 8 | Suns | 61% | 99 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 47% | 102 | 81 | |
| 21 | Warriors | 53% | 103 | 96 | |
Saturday, January 29, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 33% | 91 | 89 | |
| 9 | Bulls | 67% | 97 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 28% | 92 | 93 | |
| 20 | Grizzlies | 72% | 100 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 39% | 104 | 87 | |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 61% | 108 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 35% | 93 | 91 | |
| 8 | Mavericks | 65% | 98 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 24% | 86 | 81 | |
| 17 | Bucks | 76% | 95 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 30% | 99 | 95 | |
| 4 | Spurs | 70% | 105 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 68% | 96 | 96 | |
| 27 | Kings | 32% | 89 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 38% | 95 | 88 | |
| 22 | Clippers | 62% | 99 | 103 | |
Friday, January 28, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 30% | 93 | 92 | |
| 17 | Pacers | 70% | 100 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 44% | 96 | 99 | |
| 19 | 76ers | 56% | 97 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 56% | 97 | 116 | |
| 26 | Raptors | 44% | 95 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 39% | 100 | 102 | |
| 12 | Hawks | 61% | 104 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 79% | 109 | 117 | |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 21% | 99 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 18% | 87 | 87 | |
| 1 | Heat | 82% | 99 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 49% | 95 | 90 | |
| 8 | Bulls | 51% | 96 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 24% | 96 | 117 | |
| 11 | Thunder | 76% | 105 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 30% | 100 | 100 | |
| 16 | Jazz | 70% | 107 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 46% | 98 | 71 | |
| 10 | Suns | 54% | 99 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 40% | 98 | 121 | |
| 20 | Warriors | 60% | 102 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 17% | 91 | 100 | |
| 2 | Lakers | 83% | 104 | 95 | |
Thursday, January 27, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heat | 51% | 102 | 88 | |
| 11 | Knicks | 49% | 101 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 33% | 97 | 106 | |
| 7 | Mavericks | 67% | 103 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 51% | 92 | 88 | |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 91 | 78 | |
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 61% | 101 | 111 | |
| 20 | Pacers | 39% | 98 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 59% | 97 | 88 | |
| 27 | Nets | 41% | 94 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 56% | 102 | 107 | |
| 26 | Raptors | 44% | 99 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 55% | 102 | 109 | |
| 24 | Pistons | 45% | 100 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 49% | 91 | 90 | |
| 22 | Bucks | 51% | 92 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 63% | 106 | 118 | |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 37% | 102 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 29% | 101 | 83 | |
| 12 | Rockets | 71% | 108 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 26% | 95 | 114 | |
| 8 | Suns | 74% | 104 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 60% | 100 | 112 | |
| 16 | Jazz | 40% | 96 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 52% | 99 | 112 | |
| 19 | Warriors | 48% | 98 | 103 | |