Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Heat | 55% | 99 | 108 | |
| 12 | Thunder | 45% | 97 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 37% | 92 | 109 | |
| 1 | Lakers | 63% | 96 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 9% | 92 | 87 | |
| 3 | Magic | 91% | 109 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 55% | 103 | 99 | |
| 18 | 76ers | 45% | 101 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 28% | 97 | 106 | |
| 10 | Knicks | 72% | 105 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 39% | 96 | 102 | |
| 8 | Suns | 61% | 99 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 47% | 102 | 81 | |
| 21 | Warriors | 53% | 103 | 96 | |
Saturday, January 29, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 33% | 91 | 89 | |
| 9 | Bulls | 67% | 97 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 28% | 92 | 93 | |
| 20 | Grizzlies | 72% | 100 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 39% | 104 | 87 | |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 61% | 108 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 35% | 93 | 91 | |
| 8 | Mavericks | 65% | 98 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 24% | 86 | 81 | |
| 17 | Bucks | 76% | 95 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 30% | 99 | 95 | |
| 4 | Spurs | 70% | 105 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 68% | 96 | 96 | |
| 27 | Kings | 32% | 89 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 38% | 95 | 88 | |
| 22 | Clippers | 62% | 99 | 103 | |
Friday, January 28, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 30% | 93 | 92 | |
| 17 | Pacers | 70% | 100 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 44% | 96 | 99 | |
| 19 | 76ers | 56% | 97 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 56% | 97 | 116 | |
| 26 | Raptors | 44% | 95 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 39% | 100 | 102 | |
| 12 | Hawks | 61% | 104 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 79% | 109 | 117 | |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 21% | 99 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 18% | 87 | 87 | |
| 1 | Heat | 82% | 99 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 49% | 95 | 90 | |
| 8 | Bulls | 51% | 96 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 24% | 96 | 117 | |
| 11 | Thunder | 76% | 105 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 30% | 100 | 100 | |
| 16 | Jazz | 70% | 107 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 46% | 98 | 71 | |
| 10 | Suns | 54% | 99 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 40% | 98 | 121 | |
| 20 | Warriors | 60% | 102 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 17% | 91 | 100 | |
| 2 | Lakers | 83% | 104 | 95 | |
Thursday, January 27, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heat | 51% | 102 | 88 | |
| 11 | Knicks | 49% | 101 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 33% | 97 | 106 | |
| 7 | Mavericks | 67% | 103 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 51% | 92 | 88 | |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 91 | 78 | |
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 61% | 101 | 111 | |
| 20 | Pacers | 39% | 98 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 59% | 97 | 88 | |
| 27 | Nets | 41% | 94 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 56% | 102 | 107 | |
| 26 | Raptors | 44% | 99 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 55% | 102 | 109 | |
| 24 | Pistons | 45% | 100 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 49% | 91 | 90 | |
| 22 | Bucks | 51% | 92 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 63% | 106 | 118 | |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 37% | 102 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 29% | 101 | 83 | |
| 12 | Rockets | 71% | 108 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 26% | 95 | 114 | |
| 8 | Suns | 74% | 104 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 60% | 100 | 112 | |
| 16 | Jazz | 40% | 96 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 52% | 99 | 112 | |
| 19 | Warriors | 48% | 98 | 103 | |
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 70% | 106 | 120 | |
| 27 | Wizards | 30% | 99 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 9% | 84 | 95 | |
| 6 | Celtics | 91% | 102 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Clippers | 30% | 95 | 105 | |
| 7 | Mavericks | 70% | 102 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 54% | 95 | 94 | |
| 28 | Kings | 46% | 94 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 26% | 94 | 91 | |
| 1 | Lakers | 74% | 103 | 120 | |
Monday, January 24, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 32% | 93 | 101 | |
| 28 | Nets | 68% | 99 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 16% | 91 | 103 | |
| 2 | Magic | 84% | 104 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 49% | 101 | 95 | |
| 17 | 76ers | 51% | 102 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 57% | 102 | 100 | |
| 25 | Raptors | 43% | 100 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 26% | 98 | 106 | |
| 11 | Knicks | 74% | 107 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 30% | 86 | 83 | |
| 10 | Bulls | 70% | 92 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 59% | 108 | 129 | |
| 27 | Timberwolves | 41% | 105 | 125 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 45% | 93 | 89 | |
| 13 | Hornets | 55% | 95 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 25% | 91 | 96 | |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 75% | 100 | 81 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 59% | 104 | 113 | |
| 18 | Warriors | 41% | 101 | 102 | |
Sunday, January 23, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 25% | 99 | 107 | |
| 4 | Nuggets | 75% | 108 | 121 | |
Saturday, January 22, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 47% | 94 | 103 | |
| 23 | Bobcats | 53% | 95 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 71% | 97 | 87 | |
| 29 | Nets | 29% | 89 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 68% | 97 | 83 | |
| 24 | Wizards | 32% | 90 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 60% | 102 | 74 | |
| 26 | Pistons | 40% | 99 | 75 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 13% | 91 | 103 | |
| 2 | Heat | 87% | 106 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Jazz | 43% | 96 | 85 | |
| 20 | 76ers | 57% | 99 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 11% | 85 | 79 | |
| 11 | Bulls | 89% | 101 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 53% | 94 | 72 | |
| 14 | Hornets | 47% | 93 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 36% | 102 | 98 | |
| 9 | Thunder | 64% | 107 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 52% | 103 | 118 | |
| 13 | Rockets | 48% | 102 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 45% | 92 | 94 | |
| 22 | Bucks | 55% | 94 | 81 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 33% | 93 | 92 | |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 99 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 38% | 103 | 109 | |
| 18 | Clippers | 62% | 107 | 113 | |
Friday, January 21, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 48% | 94 | 74 | |
| 29 | Nets | 52% | 95 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 19% | 97 | 72 | |
| 4 | Magic | 81% | 109 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hornets | 46% | 93 | 100 | |
| 16 | Hawks | 54% | 95 | 59 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Jazz | 33% | 92 | 86 | |
| 5 | Celtics | 67% | 98 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 69% | 97 | 102 | |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 31% | 90 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 59% | 104 | 109 | |
| 25 | Wizards | 41% | 101 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 47% | 100 | 110 | |
| 17 | Grizzlies | 53% | 101 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 29% | 100 | 92 | |
| 3 | Spurs | 71% | 107 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 49% | 103 | 107 | |
| 6 | Nuggets | 51% | 104 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 33% | 99 | 112 | |
| 20 | Warriors | 67% | 105 | 119 | |
Thursday, January 20, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 44% | 93 | 97 | |
| 23 | Bobcats | 56% | 95 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 38% | 89 | 77 | |
| 12 | Bulls | 62% | 93 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Clippers | 31% | 94 | 93 | |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 69% | 100 | 108 | |
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 72% | 107 | 106 | |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 28% | 100 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 67% | 99 | 95 | |
| 29 | Nets | 33% | 94 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 24% | 95 | 98 | |
| 3 | Magic | 76% | 104 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 19% | 88 | 82 | |
| 5 | Celtics | 81% | 100 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 37% | 91 | 87 | |
| 22 | Bucks | 63% | 95 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 37% | 91 | 102 | |
| 15 | Hornets | 63% | 96 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 44% | 106 | 89 | |
| 14 | Rockets | 56% | 108 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 19% | 96 | 95 | |
| 4 | Spurs | 81% | 108 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 57% | 96 | 100 | |
| 13 | Mavericks | 43% | 94 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 41% | 102 | 107 | |
| 6 | Nuggets | 59% | 105 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 99 | 94 | |
| 28 | Kings | 33% | 93 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 45% | 102 | 108 | |
| 20 | Warriors | 55% | 103 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 33% | 102 | 111 | |
| 17 | Clippers | 67% | 107 | 126 | |
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 31% | 93 | 93 | |
| 4 | Heat | 69% | 99 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 28% | 86 | 83 | |
| 11 | Bulls | 72% | 94 | 82 | |
Monday, January 17, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 40% | 107 | 129 | |
| 12 | Knicks | 60% | 110 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 62% | 100 | 101 | |
| 25 | Wizards | 38% | 96 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bulls | 52% | 95 | 96 | |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 48% | 94 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 38% | 92 | 92 | |
| 18 | 76ers | 62% | 96 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 37% | 94 | 84 | |
| 15 | Rockets | 63% | 99 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 28% | 94 | 81 | |
| 14 | Hornets | 72% | 102 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Mavericks | 61% | 97 | 89 | |
| 27 | Pistons | 39% | 93 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 45% | 98 | 107 | |
| 19 | Clippers | 55% | 100 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 22% | 93 | 98 | |
| 8 | Hawks | 78% | 103 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 31% | 96 | 100 | |
| 20 | Warriors | 69% | 103 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Magic | 49% | 95 | 106 | |
| 7 | Celtics | 51% | 96 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 23% | 95 | 102 | |
| 5 | Trail Blazers | 77% | 104 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 33% | 95 | 94 | |
| 1 | Lakers | 67% | 101 | 101 | |