Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, May 23, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Celtics | 49% | 105 | 116 |
 | 11 | Heat | 51% | 106 | 99 |
Monday, May 22, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Lakers | 52% | 112 | 111 |
Sunday, May 21, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 52% | 106 | 102 |
| 9 | Heat | 48% | 105 | 128 |
Saturday, May 20, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nuggets | 48% | 111 | 119 |
| 6 | Lakers | 52% | 112 | 108 |
Friday, May 19, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 29% | 101 | 111 |
| 2 | Celtics | 71% | 109 | 105 |
Thursday, May 18, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 31% | 108 | 103 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 69% | 115 | 108 |
Wednesday, May 17, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 28% | 101 | 123 |
| 1 | Celtics | 72% | 109 | 116 |
Tuesday, May 16, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 33% | 108 | 126 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 67% | 114 | 132 |
Sunday, May 14, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Celtics | 66% | 110 | 112 |
Friday, May 12, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Knicks | 41% | 106 | 92 |
| 10 | Heat | 59% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | Lakers | 56% | 111 | 122 |
Thursday, May 11, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 45% | 107 | 95 |
| 5 | 76ers | 55% | 109 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 49% | 112 | 125 |
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Wednesday, May 10, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 40% | 105 | 103 |
| 10 | Knicks | 60% | 109 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 38% | 108 | 106 |
| 7 | Warriors | 62% | 113 | 121 |
Tuesday, May 9, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 33% | 105 | 115 |
| 1 | Celtics | 67% | 111 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 30% | 109 | 102 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 70% | 116 | 118 |
Monday, May 8, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 44% | 106 | 101 |
| 13 | Heat | 56% | 108 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warriors | 43% | 109 | 101 |
| 11 | Lakers | 57% | 112 | 104 |
Sunday, May 7, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 47% | 107 | 115 |
| 5 | 76ers | 53% | 108 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 47% | 112 | 124 |
| 7 | Suns | 53% | 113 | 129 |
Saturday, May 6, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 45% | 106 | 86 |
| 13 | Heat | 55% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 45% | 110 | 97 |
| 11 | Lakers | 55% | 112 | 127 |
Friday, May 5, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 48% | 107 | 114 |
| 8 | 76ers | 52% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 45% | 111 | 114 |
| 5 | Suns | 55% | 113 | 121 |
Thursday, May 4, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 38% | 109 | 100 |
| 3 | Warriors | 62% | 113 | 127 |
Wednesday, May 3, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 76ers | 32% | 104 | 87 |
| 1 | Celtics | 68% | 111 | 121 |
Tuesday, May 2, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Heat | 29% | 100 | 105 |
| 9 | Knicks | 71% | 108 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 35% | 108 | 117 |
| 3 | Warriors | 65% | 114 | 112 |
Monday, May 1, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 25% | 102 | 119 |
| 1 | Celtics | 75% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 33% | 109 | 87 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 67% | 115 | 97 |
Sunday, April 30, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 34% | 103 | 108 |
| 6 | Knicks | 66% | 109 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Warriors | 49% | 116 | 120 |
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Saturday, April 29, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 35% | 110 | 107 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 65% | 115 | 125 |
Friday, April 28, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kings | 29% | 112 | 118 |
| 3 | Warriors | 71% | 120 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | Lakers | 56% | 111 | 125 |
Thursday, April 27, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 60% | 114 | 128 |
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Wednesday, April 26, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 38% | 103 | 106 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 38% | 108 | 99 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 62% | 112 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 30% | 104 | 128 |
 | 4 | Bucks | 70% | 111 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 51% | 118 | 123 |
| 14 | Kings | 49% | 117 | 116 |