Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, December 2, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 6 | Mavericks | 79% | 106 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Bucks | 43% | 98 | 106 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 64% | 98 | 100 | |
 | 25 | Magic | 36% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Raptors | 26% | 84 | 95 |
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Monday, December 1, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 59% | 102 | 87 |
 | 27 | Bulls | 41% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 15 | Celtics | 60% | 98 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Pistons | 56% | 94 | 79 |
 | 17 | Knicks | 44% | 92 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 52% | 92 | 84 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, November 30, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pacers | 42% | 94 | 77 |
 | 6 | Lakers | 58% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 31% | 93 | 92 | |
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Saturday, November 29, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 55% | 95 | 74 | |
| 20 | Knicks | 45% | 93 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hawks | 28% | 89 | 86 |
| 12 | 76ers | 72% | 96 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pistons | 62% | 95 | 80 |
| 26 | Wizards | 38% | 91 | 69 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 42% | 88 | 66 |
 | 25 | Heat | 58% | 90 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 58% | 99 | 122 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 42% | 97 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 38% | 95 | 94 |
| 13 | Bucks | 62% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 21 | SuperSonics | 51% | 93 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 51% | 103 | 98 |
| 30 | Clippers | 49% | 102 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 54% | 94 | 89 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Timberwolves | 34% | 97 | 88 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 66% | 102 | 92 |
Friday, November 28, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 17% | 87 | 88 |
| 4 | Pistons | 83% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 43% | 95 | 96 |
| 16 | Celtics | 57% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Heat | 41% | 93 | 83 |
| 23 | Hawks | 59% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 48% | 90 | 87 |
| 27 | Magic | 52% | 91 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 36% | 85 | 77 |
| 3 | Pacers | 64% | 90 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Timberwolves | 45% | 95 | 102 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 55% | 97 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SuperSonics | 41% | 96 | 81 | |
| 18 | Jazz | 59% | 99 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 41% | 95 | 92 |
| 19 | Suns | 59% | 98 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 30% | 94 | 74 |
| 1 | Kings | 70% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 47% | 91 | 93 | |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 17 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 92 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 49% | 97 | 87 |
| 9 | Lakers | 51% | 98 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 54% | 103 | 103 |
| 22 | Nuggets | 46% | 102 | 113 |
Thursday, November 27, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 70% | 99 | 102 | |
| 30 | Clippers | 30% | 92 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 21% | 85 | 70 |
| 3 | Pacers | 79% | 95 | 93 |
Wednesday, November 26, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pistons | 52% | 93 | 86 |
| 11 | 76ers | 48% | 92 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 58% | 94 | 94 |
| 29 | Magic | 42% | 92 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 39% | 88 | 99 |
| 23 | Hawks | 61% | 91 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 22% | 90 | 72 |
| 7 | Hornets | 78% | 100 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 34% | 90 | 97 |
| 12 | Timberwolves | 66% | 95 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 11% | 87 | 98 |
| 3 | Spurs | 89% | 102 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 52% | 94 | 76 |
| 17 | Jazz | 48% | 93 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 59% | 103 | 90 |
| 21 | Suns | 41% | 100 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 16% | 93 | 99 |
| 8 | Lakers | 84% | 105 | 120 |
Tuesday, November 25, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 45% | 93 | 93 | |
| 13 | SuperSonics | 55% | 95 | 70 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 30% | 92 | 81 |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 70% | 98 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 24% | 98 | 89 |
| 2 | Kings | 76% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 47% | 98 | 80 |
| 23 | Nuggets | 53% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 14% | 96 | 98 |
| 1 | Mavericks | 86% | 110 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 39% | 95 | 91 |
| 11 | Bucks | 61% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hornets | 63% | 97 | 87 | |
| 24 | Heat | 37% | 93 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Timberwolves | 39% | 86 | 75 |
| 7 | Pacers | 61% | 89 | 98 |
Monday, November 24, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 64% | 94 | 89 |
| 25 | Magic | 36% | 90 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 36% | 89 | 94 |
| 18 | Celtics | 64% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pistons | 57% | 95 | 94 |
| 23 | Hawks | 43% | 93 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 66% | 100 | 105 |
| 30 | Clippers | 34% | 95 | 90 |
Sunday, November 23, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 26% | 99 | 89 |
| 3 | Lakers | 74% | 107 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 32% | 97 | 85 |
| 12 | SuperSonics | 68% | 103 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 14% | 95 | 99 |
| 2 | Kings | 86% | 108 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 96 | 72 |
| 20 | Warriors | 56% | 98 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 38% | 93 | 81 | |
| 5 | Pistons | 62% | 96 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 54% | 94 | 82 |
| 25 | Raptors | 46% | 93 | 62 |
Saturday, November 22, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 23% | 81 | 81 |
| 8 | Nets | 77% | 90 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 37% | 93 | 83 |
| 24 | Hawks | 63% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 48% | 92 | 88 |
| 21 | Knicks | 52% | 93 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nuggets | 13% | 95 | 101 |
| 1 | Mavericks | 87% | 109 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 25% | 91 | 98 |
| 16 | Suns | 75% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Clippers | 23% | 93 | 91 |
| 11 | Timberwolves | 77% | 102 | 103 |
Friday, November 21, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Timberwolves | 61% | 94 | 97 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 39% | 91 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 38% | 87 | 85 |
| 13 | 76ers | 62% | 91 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 38% | 89 | 76 |
| 7 | Hornets | 62% | 93 | 75 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 23% | 90 | 85 |
| 5 | Pistons | 77% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 21% | 87 | 75 |
| 2 | Spurs | 79% | 97 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 43% | 97 | 87 |
| 25 | Nuggets | 57% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 12% | 94 | 92 |
| 3 | Kings | 88% | 109 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 13% | 95 | 94 |
| 4 | Lakers | 87% | 110 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 39% | 93 | 91 |
| 22 | Warriors | 61% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 47% | 92 | 78 |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 93 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 40% | 99 | 98 |
| 11 | SuperSonics | 60% | 102 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 42% | 100 | 90 |
| 18 | Jazz | 58% | 102 | 99 |
Thursday, November 20, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 29% | 95 | 89 |
| 17 | Suns | 71% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 40% | 96 | 92 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 60% | 99 | 95 |
Wednesday, November 19, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 27% | 93 | 95 |
| 21 | Wizards | 73% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 55% | 88 | 81 |
| 25 | Raptors | 45% | 87 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Clippers | 13% | 90 | 78 |
| 5 | Pacers | 87% | 104 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 53% | 102 | 104 |
| 20 | Knicks | 47% | 101 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 21% | 89 | 83 |
| 11 | Rockets | 79% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 40% | 96 | 99 |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 60% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 47% | 100 | 86 |
| 27 | Nuggets | 53% | 101 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kings | 58% | 101 | 118 |
| 19 | Jazz | 42% | 98 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 25% | 90 | 93 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 75% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 44% | 93 | 81 | |
| 18 | Celtics | 56% | 95 | 73 |