Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, February 5, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Lakers | 40% | 94 | 73 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 10 | SuperSonics | 40% | 95 | 90 | |
Wednesday, February 4, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Celtics | 61% | 101 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Magic | 32% | 93 | 90 |
 | 24 | Raptors | 68% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Heat | 26% | 86 | 88 |
| 5 | Nets | 74% | 94 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 61% | 97 | 89 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 57% | 100 | 111 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Mavericks | 49% | 101 | 113 |
| 16 | Hornets | 51% | 102 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Bucks | 34% | 91 | 89 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Bulls | 30% | 91 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tuesday, February 3, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 38% | 88 | 93 |
| 18 | 76ers | 62% | 91 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 21 | Knicks | 49% | 90 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 29% | 90 | 85 |
 | 7 | Pistons | 71% | 97 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 15% | 94 | 100 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 85% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 3 | Mavericks | 81% | 109 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SuperSonics | 14% | 99 | 101 | |
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Monday, February 2, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 26% | 90 | 72 |
| 6 | Pacers | 74% | 98 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 55% | 90 | 102 |
| 22 | Heat | 45% | 88 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Clippers | 45% | 97 | 101 |
| 27 | Hawks | 55% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 52% | 93 | 91 | |
| 14 | Hornets | 48% | 92 | 70 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 35% | 95 | 101 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 65% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 95 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 91 | 83 |
| 18 | Jazz | 36% | 87 | 65 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 58% | 92 | 79 |
| 23 | Suns | 42% | 90 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 28% | 98 | 97 |
| 12 | SuperSonics | 72% | 105 | 109 | |
Sunday, February 1, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 49% | 96 | 104 |
| 30 | Wizards | 51% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 46% | 95 | 84 |
| 22 | Raptors | 54% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 21% | 88 | 101 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 79% | 98 | 106 |
Saturday, January 31, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 24% | 100 | 107 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 76% | 109 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 41% | 87 | 88 | |
| 7 | Rockets | 59% | 89 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Clippers | 34% | 102 | 115 |
| 21 | Magic | 66% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 51% | 98 | 83 |
| 28 | Hawks | 49% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 36% | 93 | 105 |
| 20 | Knicks | 64% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 34% | 90 | 78 |
| 8 | Pistons | 66% | 95 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 28% | 89 | 94 |
| 10 | Hornets | 72% | 97 | 70 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Celtics | 21% | 86 | 98 |
| 5 | Pacers | 79% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 15% | 82 | 81 |
| 2 | Spurs | 85% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 22% | 92 | 95 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 78% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 63% | 108 | 110 |
| 14 | SuperSonics | 37% | 104 | 103 | |
Friday, January 30, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 51% | 93 | 82 | |
| 22 | 76ers | 49% | 92 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Suns | 53% | 94 | 100 |
| 30 | Wizards | 47% | 93 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 57% | 90 | 90 |
| 24 | Raptors | 43% | 88 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 40% | 95 | 92 |
| 19 | Celtics | 60% | 98 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 38% | 95 | 88 |
| 23 | Heat | 62% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 33% | 93 | 85 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 67% | 99 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 30% | 96 | 95 |
| 12 | Bucks | 70% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 56% | 100 | 97 |
| 18 | Lakers | 44% | 99 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 28% | 93 | 81 |
| 14 | Warriors | 72% | 100 | 101 |
Thursday, January 29, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 59% | 99 | 89 | |
| 21 | Magic | 41% | 96 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 93 | 93 |
| 28 | Hawks | 56% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 35% | 94 | 96 |
| 2 | Spurs | 65% | 99 | 91 |
Wednesday, January 28, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pistons | 55% | 93 | 106 |
| 18 | Celtics | 45% | 91 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 49% | 98 | 104 |
| 30 | Wizards | 51% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Heat | 46% | 93 | 93 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 54% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 19% | 86 | 79 |
| 5 | Pacers | 81% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 38% | 87 | 84 |
| 25 | Raptors | 62% | 91 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 43% | 96 | 100 |
| 15 | Hornets | 57% | 98 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 29% | 95 | 88 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 71% | 102 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 52% | 97 | 99 |
| 6 | Rockets | 48% | 96 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 23% | 93 | 99 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 77% | 103 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 55% | 102 | 88 |
| 20 | Jazz | 45% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 32% | 102 | 82 | |
| 11 | Lakers | 68% | 108 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 57% | 98 | 90 |
| 17 | Warriors | 43% | 96 | 97 |
Tuesday, January 27, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nets | 51% | 91 | 94 | |
| 17 | 76ers | 49% | 90 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 60% | 94 | 77 |
| 19 | Knicks | 40% | 91 | 67 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 47% | 94 | 89 |
| 27 | Hawks | 53% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 51% | 108 | 118 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 49% | 107 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 42% | 99 | 92 |
| 26 | Clippers | 58% | 101 | 102 |
Monday, January 26, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 94 | 94 |
| 30 | Wizards | 48% | 93 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 31% | 99 | 98 |
| 21 | Cavaliers | 69% | 105 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 53% | 88 | 81 |
| 24 | Heat | 47% | 87 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 60% | 96 | 92 |
| 12 | Bucks | 40% | 93 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 54% | 99 | 97 |
| 17 | Nuggets | 46% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 41% | 96 | 93 |
| 28 | Jazz | 59% | 99 | 98 |
Sunday, January 25, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 30% | 90 | 91 |
| 6 | Nets | 70% | 96 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 43% | 106 | 99 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 57% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 45% | 92 | 89 |
| 29 | Bulls | 55% | 94 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 20% | 91 | 95 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 80% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 59% | 97 | 99 |
| 21 | Magic | 41% | 95 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 22% | 86 | 91 |
| 7 | Pistons | 78% | 95 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 33% | 97 | 88 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 67% | 103 | 106 |
Saturday, January 24, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 40% | 94 | 105 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 71% | 92 | 96 |
| 30 | Wizards | 29% | 85 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Heat | 32% | 92 | 85 |
| 18 | Knicks | 68% | 97 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 46% | 92 | 87 |
| 25 | Cavaliers | 54% | 94 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hornets | 18% | 83 | 98 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 82% | 94 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 59% | 99 | 93 |
| 29 | Jazz | 41% | 96 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 23% | 99 | 97 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 77% | 108 | 102 | |
Friday, January 23, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 32% | 95 | 98 |
| 11 | 76ers | 68% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 27% | 90 | 89 |
| 18 | Celtics | 73% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 61% | 92 | 64 | |
| 25 | Heat | 39% | 89 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 53% | 96 | 96 |
| 26 | Hawks | 47% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 40% | 94 | 91 |
| 14 | Hornets | 60% | 97 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 36% | 83 | 78 |
| 5 | Pacers | 64% | 88 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 34% | 90 | 79 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 66% | 95 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 51% | 104 | 95 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 49% | 103 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 61% | 104 | 106 |
| 28 | Bulls | 39% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Raptors | 28% | 91 | 86 |
| 12 | Bucks | 72% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 72% | 95 | 86 |
| 22 | Suns | 28% | 88 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jazz | 41% | 96 | 82 |
| 23 | Clippers | 59% | 99 | 93 |