Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Heat | 43% | 107 | 91 |
 | 14 | Hornets | 57% | 110 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Timberwolves | 38% | 110 | 114 |
 | 13 | Pistons | 62% | 115 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Mavericks | 44% | 114 | 123 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Nets | 72% | 117 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Bulls | 38% | 111 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Pelicans | 37% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Knicks | 43% | 110 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Celtics | 52% | 111 | 111 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 18 | Lakers | 42% | 114 | 99 |
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bulls | 27% | 105 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Magic | 38% | 108 | 106 |
| 10 | 76ers | 62% | 112 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Raptors | 58% | 115 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Thunder | 48% | 115 | 120 |
| 15 | Timberwolves | 52% | 116 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 36% | 110 | 128 |
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Monday, March 4, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Mavericks | 46% | 112 | 88 |
| 24 | Nets | 54% | 114 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 22% | 104 | 113 |
| 15 | Heat | 78% | 115 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 53% | 115 | 103 |
| 10 | Spurs | 47% | 114 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Bucks | 83% | 122 | 105 |
| 28 | Suns | 17% | 108 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pelicans | 29% | 107 | 115 |
| 6 | Jazz | 71% | 115 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 18% | 107 | 108 |
| 21 | Kings | 82% | 119 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 12 | Lakers | 65% | 119 | 105 |
Sunday, March 3, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 115 | 118 |
| 14 | Hornets | 45% | 113 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rockets | 46% | 111 | 115 |
| 5 | Celtics | 54% | 112 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 47% | 114 | 123 |
| 26 | Bulls | 53% | 115 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 18% | 107 | 107 |
| 18 | Clippers | 82% | 120 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 67% | 112 | 93 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 33% | 106 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 63% | 111 | 107 |
| 19 | Pistons | 37% | 107 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Timberwolves | 52% | 117 | 121 |
| 25 | Wizards | 48% | 116 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 32% | 104 | 95 |
| 11 | Thunder | 68% | 110 | 99 |
Saturday, March 2, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 72% | 114 | 129 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 28% | 106 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Magic | 41% | 104 | 117 |
| 11 | Pacers | 59% | 107 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 39% | 107 | 88 |
| 20 | Heat | 61% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 60% | 118 | 120 |
| 10 | 76ers | 40% | 115 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 39% | 104 | 111 |
| 17 | Mavericks | 61% | 108 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 52% | 115 | 102 |
| 14 | Spurs | 48% | 114 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pelicans | 19% | 111 | 120 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 81% | 123 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 64% | 117 | 109 |
| 28 | Suns | 36% | 112 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 43% | 109 | 111 |
| 4 | Jazz | 57% | 111 | 115 |
Friday, March 1, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bulls | 53% | 115 | 168 |
| 27 | Hawks | 47% | 114 | 161 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 47% | 113 | 123 |
| 21 | Nets | 53% | 114 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 40% | 111 | 117 |
| 4 | Raptors | 60% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 25% | 109 | 96 |
| 6 | Celtics | 75% | 118 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 64% | 118 | 130 |
| 28 | Suns | 36% | 113 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Clippers | 47% | 115 | 116 |
| 22 | Kings | 53% | 116 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bucks | 63% | 119 | 131 |
| 11 | Lakers | 37% | 114 | 120 |
Thursday, February 28, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Timberwolves | 40% | 108 | 115 |
| 12 | Pacers | 60% | 112 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 61% | 113 | 96 |
| 19 | Magic | 39% | 109 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 52% | 111 | 125 |
| 30 | Knicks | 48% | 110 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 22% | 104 | 118 |
| 1 | Rockets | 78% | 115 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 35% | 113 | 108 |
| 8 | Thunder | 65% | 118 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 40% | 108 | 111 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 60% | 112 | 104 |
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rockets | 64% | 116 | 118 |
| 17 | Hornets | 36% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Timberwolves | 60% | 118 | 123 |
| 26 | Hawks | 40% | 115 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 40% | 113 | 125 |
| 20 | Nets | 60% | 117 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 70% | 115 | 125 |
| 14 | Heat | 30% | 108 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 111 | 97 |
| 7 | Celtics | 56% | 113 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 32% | 101 | 109 |
| 23 | Grizzlies | 68% | 108 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 42% | 111 | 93 |
| 13 | Spurs | 58% | 114 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 51% | 110 | 101 |
| 16 | Mavericks | 49% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 25% | 105 | 105 |
| 4 | Jazz | 75% | 115 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 68% | 118 | 141 |
| 21 | Kings | 32% | 112 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pelicans | 38% | 114 | 119 |
| 12 | Lakers | 62% | 119 | 125 |
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Magic | 75% | 113 | 103 |
| 30 | Knicks | 25% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 44% | 110 | 95 |
| 6 | Raptors | 56% | 112 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 43% | 114 | 112 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 57% | 116 | 121 |
Monday, February 25, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 73% | 120 | 121 |
| 17 | Hornets | 27% | 112 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 77% | 118 | 123 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 23% | 107 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 52% | 108 | 109 |
| 18 | Pistons | 48% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Spurs | 42% | 113 | 85 |
| 20 | Nets | 58% | 116 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 27% | 103 | 124 |
| 15 | Heat | 73% | 112 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 79% | 117 | 117 |
| 27 | Bulls | 21% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 14% | 110 | 111 |
| 2 | Rockets | 86% | 125 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lakers | 55% | 108 | 105 |
| 25 | Grizzlies | 45% | 107 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 42% | 114 | 105 |
| 16 | Timberwolves | 58% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 56% | 117 | 111 |
| 23 | Pelicans | 44% | 115 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Mavericks | 51% | 114 | 112 |
| 22 | Clippers | 49% | 113 | 121 |
Sunday, February 24, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Magic | 32% | 105 | 113 |
| 6 | Raptors | 68% | 112 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 27% | 112 | 96 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 73% | 121 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spurs | 78% | 118 | 118 |
| 30 | Knicks | 22% | 107 | 130 |
Saturday, February 23, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 115 | 130 |
| 10 | 76ers | 54% | 116 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 45% | 115 | 112 |
| 27 | Hawks | 55% | 117 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 47% | 112 | 117 |
| 16 | Hornets | 53% | 113 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 56% | 106 | 107 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 44% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 52% | 114 | 119 |
| 21 | Wizards | 48% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lakers | 65% | 119 | 115 |
| 26 | Pelicans | 35% | 113 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pistons | 35% | 103 | 119 |
| 14 | Heat | 65% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 76% | 115 | 116 |
| 25 | Bulls | 24% | 105 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 31% | 111 | 119 |
| 5 | Thunder | 69% | 118 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 13% | 105 | 128 |
| 2 | Bucks | 87% | 121 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 24% | 111 | 118 |
| 1 | Warriors | 76% | 121 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Mavericks | 19% | 100 | 109 |
| 3 | Jazz | 81% | 113 | 125 |
Friday, February 22, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 42% | 115 | 110 |
| 20 | Hornets | 58% | 118 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pelicans | 39% | 110 | 111 |
| 14 | Pacers | 61% | 114 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bulls | 32% | 104 | 110 |
| 16 | Magic | 68% | 111 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Spurs | 32% | 110 | 117 |
| 5 | Raptors | 68% | 116 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 62% | 116 | 125 |
| 27 | Hawks | 38% | 112 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 61% | 113 | 115 |
| 30 | Knicks | 39% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 49% | 107 | 112 |
| 24 | Grizzlies | 51% | 108 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 63% | 115 | 114 |
| 23 | Mavericks | 37% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 51% | 110 | 147 |
| 9 | Thunder | 49% | 109 | 148 |
Thursday, February 21, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 49% | 111 | 98 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 51% | 112 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 38% | 107 | 102 |
| 9 | 76ers | 62% | 112 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 54% | 114 | 113 |
| 17 | Nets | 46% | 113 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celtics | 38% | 109 | 97 |
| 3 | Bucks | 62% | 114 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 18% | 111 | 123 |
| 1 | Warriors | 82% | 123 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rockets | 63% | 119 | 106 |
| 12 | Lakers | 37% | 114 | 111 |