Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, May 1, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 1 | Celtics | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, April 30, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Heat | 108 | ||
 | 10 | Knicks | 101 | ||
Saturday, April 29, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 107 | ||
| 5 | Nuggets | 125 | ||
Friday, April 28, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Lakers | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 118 | ||
| 3 | Warriors | 99 | ||
Thursday, April 27, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 128 | ||
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Wednesday, April 26, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 128 | ||
 | 3 | Bucks | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Knicks | 106 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 99 | ||
| 2 | Grizzlies | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Warriors | 123 | ||
| 17 | Kings | 116 | ||
Tuesday, April 25, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 119 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Timberwolves | 109 | ||
| 6 | Nuggets | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5 | Suns | 136 | ||
Monday, April 24, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 114 | ||
| 17 | Heat | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Grizzlies | 111 | ||
| 8 | Lakers | 117 | ||
Sunday, April 23, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 129 | ||
| 19 | Hawks | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cavaliers | 93 | ||
| 10 | Knicks | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 108 | ||
| 11 | Timberwolves | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 125 | ||
| 3 | Warriors | 126 | ||
Saturday, April 22, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 99 | ||
| 18 | Heat | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 96 | ||
 | 14 | Nets | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Grizzlies | 101 | ||
| 9 | Lakers | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 112 | ||
| 11 | Clippers | 100 | ||
Friday, April 21, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 122 | ||
| 19 | Hawks | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cavaliers | 79 | ||
| 11 | Knicks | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 120 | ||
| 12 | Timberwolves | 111 | ||
Thursday, April 20, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 102 | ||
| 14 | Nets | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 97 | ||
| 3 | Warriors | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 129 | ||
| 10 | Clippers | 124 | ||
Wednesday, April 19, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 122 | ||
| 9 | Bucks | 138 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Timberwolves | 113 | ||
| 7 | Nuggets | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 93 | ||
| 2 | Grizzlies | 103 | ||
Tuesday, April 18, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 106 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 90 | ||
| 6 | Cavaliers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 109 | ||
| 5 | Suns | 123 | ||
Monday, April 17, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 84 | ||
| 6 | 76ers | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 106 | ||
| 18 | Kings | 114 | ||
Sunday, April 16, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 130 | ||
| 7 | Bucks | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Timberwolves | 80 | ||
| 12 | Nuggets | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lakers | 128 | ||
| 3 | Grizzlies | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Clippers | 115 | ||
| 4 | Suns | 110 | ||
Saturday, April 15, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 99 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nets | 101 | ||
| 8 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 101 | ||
| 7 | Cavaliers | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 123 | ||
| 19 | Kings | 126 | ||
Friday, April 14, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bulls | 91 | ||
| 16 | Heat | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Thunder | 95 | ||
| 9 | Timberwolves | 120 | ||
Wednesday, April 12, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 109 | ||
 | 14 | Raptors | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Thunder | 123 | ||
 | 10 | Pelicans | 118 | ||
Tuesday, April 11, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hawks | 116 | ||
| 19 | Heat | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Timberwolves | 102 | ||
| 11 | Lakers | 108 | ||
Sunday, April 9, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 114 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 76ers | 28% | 105 | 134 |
| 10 | Nets | 72% | 114 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Hornets | 106 | ||
| 6 | Cavaliers | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Magic | 41% | 103 | 110 |
| 16 | Heat | 59% | 106 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 7 | Knicks | 136 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 37% | 106 | 105 |
| 15 | Raptors | 63% | 110 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Pistons | 20% | 105 | 81 |
| 17 | Bulls | 80% | 117 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Mavericks | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pelicans | 47% | 112 | 108 |
| 12 | Timberwolves | 53% | 113 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Grizzlies | 100 | ||
| 21 | Thunder | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 64% | 118 | 95 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 36% | 113 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 13 | Lakers | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Clippers | 51% | 110 | 119 |
| 4 | Suns | 49% | 109 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 157 | ||
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 25 | Trail Blazers | 101 | ||
Saturday, April 8, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 74% | 116 | 114 |
| 23 | Jazz | 26% | 107 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 151 | ||
| 28 | Spurs | 131 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 19% | 104 | 125 |
| 13 | Clippers | 81% | 116 | 136 |
Friday, April 7, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Rockets | 112 | ||
| 27 | Hornets | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 38% | 112 | 122 |
| 25 | Pacers | 62% | 117 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 108 | ||
| 22 | Wizards | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 76ers | 22% | 107 | 136 |
| 20 | Hawks | 78% | 118 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 102 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 21% | 103 | 84 |
| 10 | Nets | 79% | 114 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Grizzlies | 137 | ||
| 2 | Bucks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 48% | 110 | 105 |
| 12 | Pelicans | 52% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 115 | ||
| 17 | Mavericks | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 64% | 119 | 119 |
| 19 | Kings | 36% | 114 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 107 | ||
| 9 | Lakers | 121 | ||
Thursday, April 6, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cavaliers | 51% | 103 | 118 |
| 23 | Magic | 49% | 102 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 129 | ||
| 5 | 76ers | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 111 | 127 |
| 29 | Spurs | 51% | 112 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Thunder | 114 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 16% | 102 | 115 |
| 4 | Suns | 84% | 116 | 119 |
Wednesday, April 5, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nets | 78% | 118 | 123 |
| 29 | Pistons | 22% | 107 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 138 | ||
| 25 | Pacers | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 24% | 108 | 116 |
| 19 | Hawks | 76% | 119 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 93 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 39% | 109 | 92 |
| 2 | Bucks | 61% | 113 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Grizzlies | 131 | ||
| 14 | Pelicans | 138 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 38% | 117 | 119 |
| 17 | Mavericks | 62% | 121 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 118 | ||
| 15 | Clippers | 125 | ||
Tuesday, April 4, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 120 | ||
| 27 | Hornets | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 77% | 115 | 118 |
| 28 | Pistons | 23% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cavaliers | 117 | ||
| 23 | Magic | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bucks | 79% | 116 | 140 |
| 21 | Wizards | 21% | 104 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Timberwolves | 107 | ||
| 13 | Nets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 49% | 111 | 101 |
| 7 | 76ers | 51% | 112 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hawks | 123 | ||
| 17 | Bulls | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 75% | 120 | 103 |
| 29 | Rockets | 25% | 110 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 109 | ||
| 3 | Grizzlies | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 43% | 116 | 121 |
| 12 | Pelicans | 57% | 118 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 135 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Thunder | 36% | 113 | 125 |
| 8 | Warriors | 64% | 118 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Spurs | 94 | ||
| 4 | Suns | 115 | ||