Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, February 11, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 73% | 114 | 110 |
 | 19 | Heat | 27% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 10 | Thunder | 127 | ||
Saturday, February 10, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 111 | ||
 | 11 | Mavericks | 146 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Pistons | 15% | 106 | 106 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 24 | Nets | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Hornets | 24% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Bulls | 108 | ||
 | 16 | Magic | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 9 | Knicks | 59% | 118 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 25 | Raptors | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Pelicans | 93 | ||
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Friday, February 9, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 127 | ||
| 5 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 11% | 104 | 129 |
| 1 | Celtics | 89% | 122 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Rockets | 104 | ||
| 25 | Raptors | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 21% | 108 | 84 |
 | 10 | Bucks | 79% | 119 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 18 | Kings | 135 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pelicans | 58% | 114 | 122 |
 | 15 | Lakers | 42% | 111 | 139 |
Thursday, February 8, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 39% | 116 | 131 |
| 14 | Pacers | 61% | 121 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Spurs | 111 | ||
| 18 | Magic | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 57% | 109 | 118 |
| 23 | Nets | 43% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 122 | ||
| 8 | Knicks | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 54% | 105 | 118 |
| 19 | Grizzlies | 46% | 104 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Timberwolves | 129 | ||
| 9 | Bucks | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 12 | Suns | 56% | 117 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 114 | ||
| 15 | Lakers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 46% | 110 | 128 |
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 54% | 112 | 122 |
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 123 | ||
| 29 | Hornets | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 51% | 115 | 127 |
| 9 | 76ers | 49% | 114 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 114 | ||
| 30 | Wizards | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hawks | 23% | 111 | 117 |
| 1 | Celtics | 77% | 122 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Spurs | 104 | ||
| 20 | Heat | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pelicans | 41% | 111 | 117 |
| 6 | Clippers | 59% | 115 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 133 | ||
| 15 | Kings | 120 | ||
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rockets | 33% | 112 | 129 |
| 14 | Pacers | 67% | 118 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 119 | ||
| 19 | Nets | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Magic | 49% | 105 | 95 |
| 21 | Heat | 51% | 106 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 113 | ||
| 7 | Knicks | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 64% | 106 | 123 |
| 23 | Bulls | 36% | 101 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Thunder | 117 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bucks | 41% | 114 | 106 |
| 12 | Suns | 59% | 118 | 114 |
Monday, February 5, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 83% | 118 | 124 |
| 28 | Hornets | 17% | 104 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 110 | ||
| 2 | Cavaliers | 136 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 51% | 117 | 118 |
| 9 | 76ers | 49% | 116 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 149 | ||
| 22 | Hawks | 144 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 49% | 114 | 109 |
| 20 | Nets | 51% | 115 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 100 | ||
| 11 | Pelicans | 138 | ||
Sunday, February 4, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Magic | 111 | ||
| 28 | Pistons | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 72% | 120 | 140 |
| 30 | Wizards | 28% | 111 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 91 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 131 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 80% | 123 | 115 |
| 29 | Hornets | 20% | 110 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 103 | ||
| 21 | Heat | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 31% | 102 | 90 |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 69% | 109 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 127 | ||
| 7 | Thunder | 135 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 51% | 122 | 108 |
| 24 | Jazz | 49% | 121 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 103 | ||
| 2 | Nuggets | 112 | ||
Saturday, February 3, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 136 | ||
| 9 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 49% | 117 | 134 |
| 22 | Hawks | 51% | 118 | 141 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 123 | ||
| 23 | Bulls | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 37% | 107 | 113 |
| 5 | Knicks | 63% | 112 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bucks | 129 | ||
| 13 | Mavericks | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 76% | 116 | 117 |
| 26 | Spurs | 24% | 105 | 101 |
Friday, February 2, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 136 | ||
| 29 | Pistons | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Heat | 67% | 116 | 110 |
| 30 | Wizards | 33% | 110 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 120 | ||
| 23 | Hawks | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 52% | 121 | 133 |
| 15 | Pacers | 48% | 120 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 106 | ||
| 17 | Rockets | 135 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 62% | 111 | 121 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 38% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 108 | ||
| 4 | Timberwolves | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 13% | 102 | 106 |
| 6 | Thunder | 87% | 118 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pelicans | 114 | ||
| 26 | Spurs | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 18% | 103 | 108 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 82% | 117 | 120 |
Thursday, February 1, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 114 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 40% | 114 | 105 |
| 6 | Knicks | 60% | 118 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 127 | ||
| 25 | Jazz | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 68% | 107 | 108 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 32% | 100 | 101 |
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 117 | ||
| 27 | Hornets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 17% | 104 | 121 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 83% | 118 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 125 | ||
| 29 | Wizards | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 52% | 112 | 136 |
| 18 | Nets | 48% | 111 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 106 | ||
| 20 | Heat | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pelicans | 49% | 110 | 110 |
| 21 | Rockets | 51% | 111 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 87 | ||
| 4 | Timberwolves | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Magic | 63% | 111 | 108 |
| 26 | Spurs | 37% | 106 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 100 | ||
| 5 | Thunder | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bucks | 71% | 119 | 116 |
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 29% | 110 | 119 |
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 40% | 116 | 122 |
| 23 | Hawks | 60% | 119 | 138 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 124 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 33% | 110 | 103 |
| 9 | Knicks | 67% | 116 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 118 | ||
| 20 | Bulls | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 76ers | 33% | 109 | 107 |
| 10 | Warriors | 67% | 116 | 119 |
Monday, January 29, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 84% | 114 | 113 |
| 29 | Hornets | 16% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 108 | ||
| 2 | Cavaliers | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pelicans | 29% | 107 | 112 |
| 1 | Celtics | 71% | 115 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 114 | ||
| 22 | Nets | 147 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 44% | 111 | 118 |
| 19 | Heat | 56% | 114 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 119 | ||
| 21 | Rockets | 135 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 64% | 112 | 103 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 36% | 107 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 107 | ||
| 6 | Thunder | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 46% | 116 | 118 |
| 26 | Spurs | 54% | 117 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Magic | 129 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 131 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bucks | 39% | 113 | 107 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 61% | 118 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 104 | ||
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 130 | ||