Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, March 10, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Bulls | 108 | ||
 | 16 | Pistons | 131 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Raptors | 55% | 107 | 125 |
 | 14 | Heat | 45% | 106 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Pelicans | 54% | 117 | 116 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Magic | 97 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 15 | Mavericks | 33% | 110 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Knicks | 92 | ||
 | 12 | Timberwolves | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Bucks | 57% | 116 | 114 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Saturday, March 9, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 30 | Knicks | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Nets | 59% | 117 | 114 |
| 27 | Hawks | 41% | 114 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 12 | Timberwolves | 135 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Celtics | 65% | 114 | 120 |
 | 18 | Lakers | 35% | 109 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Hornets | 114 | ||
| 2 | Bucks | 131 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 17% | 107 | 120 |
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Friday, March 8, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 39% | 114 | 111 |
| 18 | Hornets | 61% | 118 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mavericks | 106 | ||
| 24 | Magic | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 14 | Heat | 74% | 112 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 112 | ||
| 26 | Bulls | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 76ers | 28% | 110 | 91 |
| 4 | Rockets | 72% | 119 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 23 | Grizzlies | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raptors | 71% | 119 | 127 |
| 21 | Pelicans | 29% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Warriors | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Thunder | 48% | 114 | 110 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 19 | Clippers | 52% | 115 | 118 |
Thursday, March 7, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 28% | 107 | 98 |
| 4 | Bucks | 72% | 116 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thunder | 129 | ||
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 121 | ||
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 43% | 107 | 91 |
| 18 | Hornets | 57% | 110 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Timberwolves | 114 | ||
| 17 | Pistons | 131 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 44% | 114 | 123 |
| 19 | Wizards | 56% | 116 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Spurs | 111 | ||
| 27 | Hawks | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 28% | 108 | 107 |
| 21 | Nets | 72% | 117 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 76ers | 107 | ||
| 26 | Bulls | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jazz | 61% | 114 | 114 |
| 22 | Pelicans | 39% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 96 | ||
| 28 | Suns | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 52% | 110 | 111 |
| 25 | Kings | 48% | 109 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 115 | ||
| 16 | Lakers | 99 | ||
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 27% | 105 | 96 |
| 11 | Pacers | 73% | 113 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 106 | ||
| 7 | 76ers | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 42% | 112 | 107 |
| 2 | Raptors | 58% | 114 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 111 | ||
| 23 | Grizzlies | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thunder | 48% | 114 | 120 |
| 12 | Timberwolves | 52% | 115 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celtics | 128 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 95 | ||
Monday, March 4, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 88 | ||
| 25 | Nets | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 22% | 104 | 113 |
| 12 | Heat | 78% | 114 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 103 | ||
| 15 | Spurs | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 83% | 121 | 105 |
| 29 | Suns | 17% | 108 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pelicans | 115 | ||
| 5 | Jazz | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 19% | 106 | 108 |
| 20 | Kings | 81% | 119 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 113 | ||
| 16 | Lakers | 105 | ||
Sunday, March 3, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 118 | ||
| 17 | Hornets | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 46% | 111 | 115 |
| 5 | Celtics | 54% | 112 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 123 | ||
| 26 | Bulls | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 19% | 107 | 107 |
| 20 | Clippers | 81% | 119 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Magic | 93 | ||
| 29 | Cavaliers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raptors | 63% | 111 | 107 |
| 18 | Pistons | 37% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Timberwolves | 121 | ||
| 21 | Wizards | 135 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Grizzlies | 33% | 104 | 95 |
| 8 | Thunder | 67% | 110 | 99 |
Saturday, March 2, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 72% | 113 | 129 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 28% | 105 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 117 | ||
| 11 | Pacers | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 39% | 107 | 88 |
| 14 | Heat | 61% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 120 | ||
| 7 | 76ers | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Grizzlies | 40% | 104 | 111 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 60% | 108 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 102 | ||
| 16 | Spurs | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pelicans | 19% | 110 | 120 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 81% | 123 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 109 | ||
| 29 | Suns | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 43% | 109 | 111 |
| 5 | Jazz | 57% | 111 | 115 |
Friday, March 1, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bulls | 168 | ||
| 27 | Hawks | 161 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hornets | 47% | 113 | 123 |
| 19 | Nets | 53% | 114 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 117 | ||
| 2 | Raptors | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 24% | 108 | 96 |
| 6 | Celtics | 76% | 118 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pelicans | 130 | ||
| 29 | Suns | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Clippers | 47% | 114 | 116 |
| 21 | Kings | 53% | 116 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 131 | ||
| 15 | Lakers | 120 | ||
Thursday, February 28, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Timberwolves | 115 | ||
| 11 | Pacers | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 61% | 113 | 96 |
| 21 | Magic | 39% | 109 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 125 | ||
| 30 | Knicks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 22% | 104 | 118 |
| 2 | Rockets | 78% | 115 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 111 | ||
| 9 | Nuggets | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 76ers | 35% | 112 | 108 |
| 7 | Thunder | 65% | 118 | 104 |
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rockets | 64% | 116 | 118 |
| 18 | Hornets | 36% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Timberwolves | 123 | ||
| 27 | Hawks | 131 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 43% | 111 | 97 |
| 6 | Celtics | 57% | 113 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 125 | ||
| 17 | Nets | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 70% | 115 | 125 |
| 16 | Heat | 30% | 108 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bulls | 109 | ||
| 21 | Grizzlies | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pistons | 42% | 111 | 93 |
| 15 | Spurs | 58% | 113 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 101 | ||
| 13 | Mavericks | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 25% | 105 | 105 |
| 5 | Jazz | 75% | 114 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 141 | ||
| 23 | Kings | 140 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pelicans | 38% | 114 | 119 |
| 14 | Lakers | 62% | 118 | 125 |
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 103 | ||
| 30 | Knicks | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celtics | 44% | 110 | 95 |
| 2 | Raptors | 56% | 112 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 112 | ||
| 9 | Nuggets | 121 | ||
Monday, February 25, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 73% | 120 | 121 |
| 19 | Hornets | 27% | 112 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 123 | ||
| 29 | Cavaliers | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 52% | 108 | 109 |
| 21 | Pistons | 48% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Spurs | 85 | ||
| 17 | Nets | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 27% | 103 | 124 |
| 15 | Heat | 73% | 112 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 117 | ||
| 26 | Bulls | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 15% | 110 | 111 |
| 2 | Rockets | 85% | 125 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 105 | ||
| 23 | Grizzlies | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 42% | 113 | 105 |
| 12 | Timberwolves | 58% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 76ers | 111 | ||
| 24 | Pelicans | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 51% | 114 | 112 |
| 25 | Clippers | 49% | 113 | 121 |