Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, November 11, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Bucks | 49% | 111 | 97 |
 | 18 | Magic | 51% | 112 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Raptors | 26% | 105 | 94 |
 | 1 | Celtics | 74% | 114 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Heat | 33% | 111 | 117 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, November 10, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Pistons | 22% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Hornets | 43% | 118 | 124 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Nets | 19% | 106 | 107 |
| 1 | Celtics | 81% | 119 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Pelicans | 43% | 109 | 101 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 76% | 118 | 117 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Mavericks | 54% | 118 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Lakers | 33% | 108 | 122 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Thunder | 55% | 116 | 98 |
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Thursday, November 9, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bucks | 46% | 120 | 124 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 57% | 116 | 120 |
| 19 | Magic | 43% | 113 | 119 |
Wednesday, November 8, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 45% | 118 | 132 |
| 27 | Hornets | 55% | 119 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 42% | 122 | 118 |
| 18 | Pacers | 58% | 125 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 60% | 116 | 103 |
| 8 | 76ers | 40% | 112 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 57% | 118 | 93 |
| 17 | Nets | 43% | 115 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 22% | 108 | 105 |
 | 5 | Knicks | 78% | 119 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 53% | 110 | 116 |
 | 19 | Bulls | 47% | 109 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 52% | 110 | 94 |
| 23 | Rockets | 48% | 109 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 22% | 109 | 118 |
| 10 | Bucks | 78% | 120 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 28% | 105 | 101 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 72% | 114 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 53% | 113 | 120 |
| 15 | Thunder | 47% | 112 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 52% | 112 | 108 |
| 21 | Grizzlies | 48% | 111 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 36% | 111 | 127 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 64% | 116 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 40% | 111 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 26 | Trail Blazers | 42% | 109 | 118 |
| 25 | Kings | 58% | 112 | 121 |
Monday, November 6, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 73% | 116 | 120 |
| 30 | Pistons | 27% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Spurs | 32% | 118 | 111 |
| 19 | Pacers | 68% | 125 | 152 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 49% | 114 | 117 |
| 17 | Magic | 51% | 115 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 22% | 109 | 128 |
| 8 | 76ers | 78% | 120 | 146 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 46% | 113 | 97 |
| 6 | Knicks | 54% | 114 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bucks | 54% | 117 | 129 |
| 16 | Nets | 46% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 46% | 111 | 107 |
| 14 | Heat | 54% | 112 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jazz | 47% | 113 | 113 |
| 22 | Bulls | 53% | 114 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 48% | 112 | 97 |
| 25 | Rockets | 52% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 56% | 112 | 109 |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 44% | 110 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 54% | 119 | 117 |
| 18 | Thunder | 46% | 118 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 28% | 105 | 116 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 72% | 114 | 134 |
Sunday, November 5, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Suns | 61% | 114 | 120 |
| 30 | Pistons | 39% | 110 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Raptors | 61% | 113 | 123 |
| 28 | Spurs | 39% | 109 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 51% | 112 | 104 |
| 9 | Cavaliers | 49% | 111 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 17% | 110 | 118 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 83% | 124 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 54% | 110 | 112 |
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 108 | 100 |
Saturday, November 4, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 36% | 109 | 100 |
| 8 | 76ers | 64% | 115 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 51% | 119 | 123 |
| 15 | Pelicans | 49% | 118 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 59% | 111 | 101 |
| 24 | Magic | 41% | 108 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 41% | 120 | 125 |
| 22 | Pacers | 59% | 123 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 53% | 115 | 89 |
| 25 | Rockets | 47% | 114 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 32% | 111 | 95 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 68% | 117 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 74% | 120 | 124 |
| 23 | Nets | 26% | 111 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 25% | 104 | 101 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 75% | 114 | 123 |
Friday, November 3, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cavaliers | 55% | 117 | 116 |
| 23 | Pacers | 45% | 115 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Knicks | 49% | 115 | 105 |
| 10 | Bucks | 51% | 116 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 31% | 111 | 114 |
| 13 | Heat | 69% | 118 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 44% | 110 | 109 |
| 17 | Bulls | 56% | 112 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 70% | 113 | 141 |
| 25 | Thunder | 30% | 106 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 37% | 113 | 114 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 63% | 118 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 56% | 111 | 113 |
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 108 | 115 |
Thursday, November 2, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Raptors | 30% | 105 | 99 |
| 9 | 76ers | 70% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 27% | 106 | 116 |
| 16 | Pelicans | 73% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Magic | 51% | 114 | 115 |
| 18 | Jazz | 49% | 113 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 21% | 110 | 132 |
| 10 | Suns | 79% | 122 | 121 |
Wednesday, November 1, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 109 | 110 |
| 29 | Pistons | 52% | 110 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bucks | 53% | 113 | 111 |
| 14 | Raptors | 47% | 112 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 32% | 106 | 95 |
| 7 | Knicks | 68% | 113 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 28% | 115 | 121 |
| 10 | Hawks | 72% | 124 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 17% | 109 | 104 |
| 1 | Celtics | 83% | 123 | 155 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 41% | 111 | 109 |
| 13 | Heat | 59% | 114 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 47% | 112 | 110 |
| 22 | Thunder | 53% | 113 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 45% | 112 | 119 |
| 25 | Rockets | 55% | 114 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 53% | 110 | 89 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 47% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 43% | 112 | 105 |
| 15 | Mavericks | 57% | 114 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 51% | 116 | 109 |
| 17 | Jazz | 49% | 115 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 31% | 112 | 101 |
| 3 | Warriors | 69% | 119 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Clippers | 35% | 111 | 125 |
| 6 | Lakers | 65% | 117 | 130 |
Tuesday, October 31, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 51% | 112 | 109 |
| 15 | Cavaliers | 49% | 111 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Spurs | 22% | 108 | 115 |
| 11 | Suns | 78% | 119 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Magic | 26% | 107 | 102 |
| 3 | Clippers | 74% | 116 | 118 |
Monday, October 30, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 61% | 115 | 133 |
| 28 | Hornets | 39% | 111 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 44% | 114 | 112 |
| 18 | Pacers | 56% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 79% | 122 | 126 |
| 25 | Wizards | 21% | 110 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Timberwolves | 54% | 115 | 113 |
| 10 | Hawks | 46% | 113 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 19% | 101 | 99 |
| 11 | Raptors | 81% | 114 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Mavericks | 40% | 111 | 125 |
| 15 | Grizzlies | 60% | 115 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 37% | 114 | 114 |
| 5 | Bucks | 63% | 119 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 51% | 112 | 130 |
| 13 | Pelicans | 49% | 111 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 41% | 109 | 112 |
| 24 | Thunder | 59% | 112 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 28% | 112 | 102 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 72% | 120 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 36% | 106 | 103 |
| 7 | Lakers | 64% | 111 | 106 |
Sunday, October 29, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 63% | 116 | 128 |
| 21 | Thunder | 37% | 112 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 71% | 116 | 106 |
| 26 | Rockets | 29% | 108 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 33% | 118 | 127 |
| 4 | Bucks | 67% | 125 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Trail Blazers | 25% | 104 | 98 |
| 5 | 76ers | 75% | 114 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Spurs | 24% | 112 | 83 |
| 6 | Clippers | 76% | 122 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 52% | 118 | 127 |
| 14 | Kings | 48% | 117 | 132 |